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Presidential Election :11/3/2020- Trump the Impeached vs Superplanner Lizzie, Shake Your Booty Pete & some other Dems

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2 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I'm saying, changing course is going to work less. Look, they had John Kasich who is an actual conservative and who was arguably the best candidate in the field on either side of the aisle running in 2016. Trump wiped the floor with him. They can try to prop up a good candidate but the same thing is going to happen. Some asshole is going to get up on stage and talk about how the real enemy is democrats and immigrants and that is who the base will fall in love with. They've created a cult of stupid voters and it turned into Frankenstein's monster, killing the Republican Party and any semblance of conservatism that remained.

 

Okay, I think we agree on somethings but not having this conversation in the same context of time frame.  In the immediate sense, maybe the GOP won't figure it out.  But in the long-term, their target demographic is not only projected to be just another minority group, its the only racial group in the country that's shrinking.

 

Image result for white deaths outnumber white births

 

So much of what the GOP is doing is heat of the moment or trying to fruitlessly hold off the inevitable as long as they can.  They aren't going to win this, it may suck now, but this is completely unsustainable what they are doing specificly targeting a dying demographic.  In historical context, we're seeing the dying death throbs of that strategy.  The question isn't will they change, its how much damage will they do in the meantime until they do.

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17 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

So much of what the GOP is doing is heat of the moment or trying to fruitlessly hold off the inevitable as long as they can.  They aren't going to win this, it may suck now, but this is completely unsustainable what they are doing specificly targeting a dying demographic.  In historical context, we're seeing the dying death throbs of that strategy.

Based on everything you’ve witnessed, which of these do you suspect is going to be the likely GOP strategy for retaining power?

 

1. Give up on unpopular ideas and stop acting like assholes.

2. Further rig the system.

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1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Based on everything you’ve witnessed, which of these do you suspect is going to be the likely GOP strategy for retaining power?

 

1. Give up on unpopular ideas and stop acting like assholes.

2. Further rig the system.

 

Immeidate sense, rig the system, but you cant do that if you arent in power. 

 

I live in Virginia and seeing this happen in real time with GOP not only losing its ability to gerrymander in their favor, but about to lose their slim 1-2 vote hold on the house of delegates at the rate they are going. 

 

How is this happening in a southern state? NOVA.  GOP isnt jus losing urban areas, they are losing the suburbs as well now. 

 

Think about how short term unsubstainable the GOP strategy is if this continues:  Nebraska has 2 million people and their largest metropolitan area, Omaha, has close to half that.  If the 2018 midterm is any indication of where this is going, with the first time in human history more people living in urban areas then rural areas, red states like Nebraska could end up at some point turning blue simply because their largest metropolitan area is.

 

If GOP wants to wrap both legs and arms around this sinking ship tigher and tighter, that wont change that its sinking.  At some point they will have to let go or they going to drown.  This is going to happen in our lifetime.

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

How many blue waves is it going to take before they give up on the issues they think are holding them back?  At what point are they going to crack and have to step back on their race issue stances because they need conservative minorities to survive?

 

Once those issues aren't popular with their base they'll just move on and pretend that never happened or blame it on the left.

 

There won't be any moments of clarity. 

 

Like when Trump is gone it'll he as if he never existed and the GOP will take the moral highground on everything. 

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

If GOP wants to wrap both legs and arms around this sinking ship tigher and tighter, that wont change that its sinking.  At some point they will have to let go or they going to drown.  This is going to happen in our lifetime.

They will embrace fascism and violently react.

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Posted (edited)
Just now, BenningRoadSkin said:

They will embrace fascism and violently react.

 

And risk their Walmarts and Sunday Night Football?  I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Image result for please send snacks

Edited by Renegade7
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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

Once those issues aren't popular with their base they'll just move on and pretend that never happened or blame it on the left.

 

There won't be any moments of clarity. 

 

Like when Trump is gone it'll he as if he never existed and the GOP will take the moral highground on everything. 

 

If GOP gave up trying to pass laws to restrict abortion, immigration and racial equality, will it really matter why?  They may always be this sneaky, double-talking political party going forward, but if they flip on Citizens United one day, they can say its because the Earth was Flat and the Dems were covering it up for all I care.

 

"So why have you changed your position on Climate Change?"

 

"The Dems won't want to hear this, but God told me to."

 

Image result for cool john oliver gif

Edited by Renegade7
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17 hours ago, Mooka said:

Once those issues aren't popular with their base they'll just move on and pretend that never happened or blame it on the left.

 

Ding ding ding.  

 

They will fight to the Supreme Court that it's a state's right to make being gay a criminal offense.  Until they lose.  Then they'll announce that well, I don't think gays should be imprisoned for life (any more), and that proves I'm not prejudced against them.  And start passing constitutional amendments making it illegal for gays to file joint income tax returns.  Until they lose that fight.  And then they'll announce that look, I'm not prejudiced, because I'm willing to let them get married, but I want topass laws now that say that any business can discriminate all they want, as long as it recites the magic words "my religion says so".  

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23 hours ago, No Excuses said:

 

I don’t think its the same thing. 

 

And yes, even someone like Duke deserves a path to forgiveness if his words are matched by actions. This has never happened with him, in fact the opposite, so it’s a moot point. 

 

But people who have been radicalized in hateful and bigoted ideologies and communities deserve a chance to change ways, make amends and often can be the strongest advocates against them.

It's actually exactly the same thing. Someone who espoused hateful racist rhetoric for his whole adult life and then suddenly said "sorry". 

 

And the point, since you seemed to either not get it, or ignored it, is that Duke didn't deserve forgiveness. He was lying. If you had extended the "path to redemption" you would have elected a disgusting bigot.

 

If there is a difference, its that Duke had been out of the KKK for a much longer period of time than Walsh gap from racist comments to now.

 

But you go ahead and forgive bigots who say "sorry" when they run for office. Hopefully a strong majority won't be so foolish.

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22 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

But you go ahead and forgive bigots who say "sorry" when they run for office. Hopefully a strong majority won't be so foolish.

 

This a really bad reading of what I’m saying. Words have to be matched by actions and someone willing to disavow their racist past, while also demonstrating that they will work towards making society better and more civil, then by all means they should have a path to redemption.

 

If you tell all racists that your past will forever define you and there is no way to redeem yourself, then we are probably looking at repeated cycles of Trump clones coming into office because a huge portion of our populations ideology is rooted in racism and bigotry.

 

Having voices who were formerly racist but are actively working to make amends and deradicalize society is pretty much necessary to move forward socially in a healthy way.

 

So no, I am not saying we should crown Joe Walsh, but I am willing to engage people like him in good faith. It’s a far better alternative than just keeping the status quo.

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Walsh hasnt reached the status of former gang members or terrorists trying everything to keep youth from following their same footsteps, he may never get there.

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Nothing in there about the fairness doctrine or the law that helped UK get Fox News out the country.  Is he really that pissed off about the way that hes covered, that's what this seems more to address.  I like the idea of going after corporations that own multiple news outlets, but Bezos only owns one, hes making that personal.  And no, I dont support increased funding to PBS because I dont trust where Bernie wants to go with that or anyone after him once that line is moved.  PBS needs their own news channel in PBS Newshour format, but if it's the government that provides the funds to make that possible it might as well be state run tv.

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Money, Money, Money. Everything.  Everything comes back around to how much more money people can make.  Ugh.

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

I like the idea of going after corporations that own multiple news outlets, but Bezos only owns one, hes making that personal.

 

Bad faith arguments are always more effective when you go after someone that is famous enough that everyone knows what he actually looks like.  

 

I very much like the idea of enforcing anti-trust laws, across all industries.  

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11 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Bad faith arguments are always more effective when you go after someone that is famous enough that everyone knows what he actually looks like.  

 

I very much like the idea of enforcing anti-trust laws, across all industries.  

 

I'm probably one of the biggest WaPo apologists on here, and I'll say that if extremes on the right and left dont like a particular newspaper, that's probably a good thing and sign they are actually doing their job

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Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

I'm probably one of the biggest WaPo apologists on here, and I'll say that if extremes on the right and left dont like a particular newspaper, that's probably a good thing and sign they are actually doing their job

 

Agree with you everyday except the day (today) where Donald Trump got all ****y about Fox News being too favorable to Democrats. :ols:

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26 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Agree with you everyday except the day (today) where Donald Trump got all ****y about Fox News being too favorable to Democrats. :ols:

 

I swear, man, the only reason anything he says matters is because hes POTUS.  Bill Maher is right, hes basically someone's grandpa water his grass in his bathrobe yelling at kids who ride past his house on their bikes.  Yelling at the clouds?  Gonna one up that ****, I'm gonna nuke it.

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https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/these-are-numbers-should-worry-trump-most

 

Quote

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was released on Sunday. Conducted Aug. 10-14, the poll asked registered voters: “If Donald Trump runs for reelection as the Republican candidate, will you definitely vote for Trump, probably vote for Trump, probably vote for the Democratic candidate or definitely vote for the Democrat?” Twenty-nine percent said that they would definitely vote for Trump, with another 11 percent indicating that they would probably vote for him. Forty-one percent said they would definitely vote for the Democrat, and another 11 percent said they would probably vote for the Democrat.

 

Since March, the last time the NBC/WSJ poll asked this question, the "definitely" pro-Trump number increased by 2 points, but the definite voters for the Democrat increased by 8 points. Other polls conducted this year pegged the definite-Trump number as low as 28 percent and as high as 39 percent, while the definitely-oppose number ranged from 43 to 56 percent, with some variance in how the question was phrased.

 

In terms of approval ratings, the NBC/WSJ poll found Trump at 43 percent approval among all adults (29 percent strongly approved, 14 percent somewhat) and 55 percent disapproval (44 percent strongly, 9 percent somewhat).

 

Last week’s Fox News poll had nearly identical results: 43 percent approved and 56 percent disapproved. Fox did not ask the reelect question this month.

At the time of this writing, NBC and the WSJ had not released trial heats matching Trump up with the better known Democratic candidates, but in the Fox News poll, all four of the potential Trump opponents who were measured ran at least 6 points and as much as 12 points ahead of him. Trump received 39 percent of the vote when matched against Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. He was one point lower, at 38 percent, when opposed by Joe Biden.

 

Obviously, it matters who Democrats nominate, but it is far more likely than not that Trump will do better in the Electoral College vote than the popular vote (the GOP vote is more efficiently spread around the states, with fewer "wasted" votes). The popular vote is a good way to see how significant Trump's challenge is. In 2016, while losing the national popular vote by 2.9 million votes (2.1 percentage points), he eked out an Electoral College win by the narrowest of margins, fewer than 78,000 votes spread across three states. So a Democrat might have to win the popular vote by 3 or 3-and-a-half points to be reasonably confident of winning at least 270 electoral votes as well.

 

A couple of other numbers to consider plugging into your equation: the national generic congressional vote, and next year's voter turnout.

 

Last year, Democrats won the national congressional vote by 8.6 percentage points, with Democratic candidates on average running 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 performance in their respective districts. Today, the RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot by 8 points. It’s reasonable to conclude that the playing field remains tilted in favor of Democrats. (For those skeptical of polling, remember that national polls weren’t far off at all in 2016. The RealClearPolitics average of all of the major national polls had Clinton up by 3 percentage points, so the final, popular-vote result was well within the margin of error.)

 

Based on the level of interest in the upcoming election, turnout is likely to be very high, perhaps the highest presidential-year turnout in modern history. In 2016, turnout was 60 percent, roughly comparable to the last few election cycles. But last year’s midterms had the highest turnout since 1914. When turnout is very high, the electorate is more likely to resemble the universe of all registered voters. Indeed, last year’s midterm polling was dead on; with the exception of the Florida governor race, general-election upsets in statewide races were hard to come by, and the national popular vote for the House was only six-tenths of a percentage point off of the RCP average of major national polls.

 

Of course, a lot can and will happen over the next 15 months, and things can certainly change. But at this point, this looks to be an uphill climb for the president’s reelection.

 

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It's like everything is trending against Trump............until we get the Dem candidate.  THAT is when I start to worry. 

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