Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[The Evil Genius]

1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Nothing has changed my mind that Trump wins the electoral college, even as he loses the popular vote by 5 to 15 million.  Even though it's early, I have this feeling Dems won't be united. Whoever the nominee is, won't have the full support.

 

Bloomberg got in because he's banking on a contested convention that goes beyond the first ballot. 

 

The Dems allocate their delegates proportionally.  So, if 3 to 5 candidates rack up delegates; No one will get a the required delegates to get the nomination and we got a contested convention. If the No one wins on the first ballot, I think the delegates are to vote for whomever they want. Also, super delegates can vote after the first round.

 

If that happens, no way Dems are united.

 

Stay tuned.

 

Well Trump has to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania again to do so...and he won those by a combined total of about 75k votes.  

 

If the assumption is that he's lost voters (or more voterswill come out to vote against him) and/or HRC was a historically unpopular nomination (as some have fronted here in ES)...then I don't see how he wins those 3. Maybe he holds on to PA but I don't see Michigan and Wisconsin going his way. Trump cannot afford to lose any other larger state (like a Florida, NC, Ohio) if that happens. 

 

Edit..there are probably way too many moving parts to even make a logical prediction right now, but I'd suspect (hope, plead, beg for) that even if the neoliberal portion of the Democrat party doesn't get their candidate(s), they will still mobilize and choose the lesser of what they see as two bad choices. 

[88Comrade2000]

27 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Well Trump has to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania again to do so...and he won those by a combined total of about 75k votes.  

 

If the assumption is that he's lost voters (or more voterswill come out to vote against him) and/or HRC was a historically unpopular nomination (as some have fronted here in ES)...then I don't see how he wins those 3. Maybe he holds on to PA but I don't see Michigan and Wisconsin going his way. Trump cannot afford to lose any other larger state (like a Florida, NC, Ohio) if that happens. 

 

Edit..there are probably way too many moving parts to even make a logical prediction right now, but I'd suspect (hope, plead, beg for) that even if the neoliberal portion of the Democrat party doesn't get their candidate(s), they will still mobilize and choose the lesser of what they see as two bad choices. 

Trump can lose 36 evs and still win.

 

I hope I am dead wrong, but I think those wavering Trump voters; will in the end vote for Trump again.

 

The Russians and the GOP  are working to do whatever to ensure victory.

 

I expect electronic voting machines to be hacked.

I expect physical violence to discourage nonTrump voters in key areas.

If you think it can't happen; it probably will.

War, is also possible.

I can see the Democratic nominee assassinated, if needed.

 

I can see shooting at polling stations early in the day, to discourage voting.

 

They GOP and Russians will do what's needed.

[redskinss]

 

[Springfield]

I think the sudden turn against F4A is the notion that nearly 2 million people will suddenly lose their jobs.  That’s a HUGE problem and Warren/Sanders can’t simply ignore that.

[redskinss]

2 minutes ago, Springfield said:

I think the sudden turn against F4A is the notion that nearly 2 million people will suddenly lose their jobs.  That’s a HUGE problem and Warren/Sanders can’t simply ignore that.

That's a valid argument but it's also the argument that has been made many times over when social changes were needed like the tobacco industry for example. 

 

The people working in the health insurance industry will have to adapt and get re training for new jobs.

 

The government will certainly need a lot of employees to assist with Medicare. 

[nonniey]

Does the title need to be renamed by removing the "superplanner Lizzie" yet? .

[Renegade7]

55 minutes ago, Springfield said:

I think the sudden turn against F4A is the notion that nearly 2 million people will suddenly lose their jobs.  That’s a HUGE problem and Warren/Sanders can’t simply ignore that.

They wont suddenly lose their job and both Bills have money set aside to address that, including retraining.  The sudden turn is that is never discussed because they dont have time to, it's way easier to say people dont like this then it is to prove it's worth it.

[88Comrade2000]

20 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Does the title need to be renamed by removing the "superplanner Lizzie" yet? .

Hmmm. 
She has been slipping.

[NoCalMike]

Propping up industry operating on a business model that is bad for the people in the name of jobs should not be a long term plan.  That is like saying the coal industry should be kept around despite cleaner, healthier, cheaper, and more efficient means of energy being produced because..........jobs.  It might score some points for an election and get you into office, but to me it shows a lack of honesty & leadership.  Sometimes this country needs more direct honesty from our leaders instead of the constant pandering.

 

I work for a vision insurance company, if vision is ultimately covered under M4A, one day it could mean my job goes away or at least the company I work for goes away and I will have to go enter the market again to look for a job.  My response?  So be it. 

[Jumbo]

39 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Does the title need to be renamed by removing the "superplanner Lizzie" yet? .

 

i laughed...but first (prioritizing to need) we should change the name of your party to the Grand Old Cesspool (that's being kind and brief)

[Springfield]

38 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

They wont suddenly lose their job and both Bills have money set aside to address that, including retraining.  The sudden turn is that is never discussed because they dont have time to, it's way easier to say people dont like this then it is to prove it's worth it.

I know this probably isn’t the thread for it, but it keeps coming back.

 

Retraining for what?  Are the jobs that we are retraining them for simply going to appear out of nowhere?  If a whole industry of insurance benefits specialists are suddenly wiped out, what industry do they go into?

 

I love the idea of M4A.  I think it’s great.  I would want government paid health care and to not have to worry about family planning because my wife’s healthcare is exponentially less expensive than mine.

 

I don’t love the idea of millions of people losing their job and just saying, “we’ll retrain them.”  That’s bull****.  That’s like saying to all the coal miners that they can be retrained.  For what?  To move their whole family and career and upend their whole lifestyle because their job doesn’t exist any longer.  You need to have a plan that isn’t as vague as something like building a wall along the entirety of the southern boarder and making Mexico pay for it.

[redskinss]

17 minutes ago, Springfield said:

 

I don’t love the idea of millions of people losing their job and just saying, “we’ll retrain them.”  That’s bull****.  That’s like saying to all the coal miners that they can be retrained.  For what?  To move their whole family and career and upend their whole lifestyle because their job doesn’t exist any longer

But there are programs in place for displaced workers.

This would be a massive scale so adjustments would certainly have to be made but it can be done.

 

Why can't a coal miner this year be a truck driver next year?

Or a fireman, or whatever.

I used to make plastic and now I run cranes, people adapt it's what we do, some dont want to and it sucks to make them but sometimes its neccessary. 

 

Millions of people across the globe used to work in the asbestos industry but that didn't stop us from doing what was right.

[nonniey]

40 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

i laughed...but first (prioritizing to need) we should change the name of your party to the Grand Old Cesspool (that's being kind and brief)

We have our islands and shallows.

 

[Jumbo]

3 minutes ago, nonniey said:

We have our islands and shallows.

 

 

 

quality reply on all fronts

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

35 minutes ago, redskinss said:

But there are programs in place for displaced workers.

This would be a massive scale so adjustments would certainly have to be made but it can be done.

 

Why can't a coal miner this year be a truck driver next year?

Or a fireman, or whatever.

I used to make plastic and now I run cranes, people adapt it's what we do, some dont want to and it sucks to make them but sometimes its neccessary. 

 

Millions of people across the globe used to work in the asbestos industry but that didn't stop us from doing what was right.

Training isn't going to mean ****, if they aren't the jobs.

 

Whatever jobs are lost must be immediately replaced with equal paying jobs in the same area.  Not everyone, can up and move.

 

Green New Deal, MFA.  Well, those new deal jobs better be paying similar to what I earned in my lost jobs. Also, those jobs better be available in my town.

 

Part of what lead to Trump, the politicians didn't plan for the impact of the various trade deals.  Trump conned many of those voters, leading them to think those jobs were coming back.

 

You think 2 million people are going to voluntarily support something that brings uncertainty in their lives and have an ironclad guarantee that jobs with similar pay will be available in their areas.  Some might but I think an overwhelming majority won't.  Especially, after the GOP/Trump/Russian attack machine has their say.

 

I know the younger people want that change but it's still the older voters who will decide that.  The older you are, you tend not to like change; especially something as big as MFA.

[NoCalMike]

3 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

 

I know the younger people want that change but it's still the older voters who will decide that.  The older you are, you tend not to like change; especially something as big as MFA.

 

I think your point is valid, in fact extremely valid.  Yes people can adapt over the long term, but isn't like those of us with mortgages and families to take care can put everything on hold while we retrain and look for new equally compensated jobs in a new industry.

These are fair concerns that absolutely should be addressed by anyone proposing M4A.   There should be specific safeguards in place for displaced workers and politicians should be able to lay out those plans in detail. 

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Springfield said:

I know this probably isn’t the thread for it, but it keeps coming back.

 

Retraining for what?  Are the jobs that we are retraining them for simply going to appear out of nowhere?  If a whole industry of insurance benefits specialists are suddenly wiped out, what industry do they go into?

 

I love the idea of M4A.  I think it’s great.  I would want government paid health care and to not have to worry about family planning because my wife’s healthcare is exponentially less expensive than mine.

 

I don’t love the idea of millions of people losing their job and just saying, “we’ll retrain them.”  That’s bull****.  That’s like saying to all the coal miners that they can be retrained.  For what?  To move their whole family and career and upend their whole lifestyle because their job doesn’t exist any longer.  You need to have a plan that isn’t as vague as something like building a wall along the entirety of the southern boarder and making Mexico pay for it.

 

It's not bull. A lot of the retraining for coal miners is IT related.  The fact West Virginia is an economic wasteland is a completely different topic, but saving the coal industry to save their jobs is not the answer.  

 

These 2million arent all trapped in places with limited options, and the bills include more then jus paying for education.  But at the end of the day, theres 27 million people in this country with no insurance at all, let alone underinsured or paying too GD much, like myself. Saying 2million vs 27million isnt anymore fair then jus telling everyone to deal with it the way it is, the way it is is broken and most importantly unsubstainable.

 

Public Option isnt enough to stop price rising by itself, and trying to do wholesale costs control to anything close to Medicare rates while not doing MFA will still cause the contraction opponents of MFA keep talking about.  The Public Option isnt designed to fix the issue of out of control price rising, it's designed to pass congress.  Jus look at Maryland and their attempts to make Medicare rates fair with respect to private insurance wanting as much money as possible, it's actually making it worse.

 

https://reason.com/2019/06/26/marylands-health-care-price-controls-medicare-for-all-single-payer/

 

You cant implement price controls and make profit driven private insurance companies happy, they directly coninflict with each other.

 

This correction, whatever it ends up looking like is due to the system being broken in the first place.  I havent seen a clean number on who these 2million are, I'm guessing its folks that specialize in the different admin overheard from the number of different insurance models primarily. 

 

Private insurance isnt going away in either bill, it's being forced to not offer competing services with the new version of Medicare.  That means the private insurance companies will shrink, that doesnt mean they'll all go away.

 

Theres nothing vague about this plan, its jus too complex for 15 second sound bites.  Theres a lot I agree and disagree with on both sides, but we have decide if we want something to pass or to actually fix the problem.  Someone's going to be unhappy no matter what we do, even if we do nothing.

22 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

 

I know the younger people want that change but it's still the older voters who will decide that.  The older you are, you tend not to like change; especially something as big as MFA.

 

These old folks will be dead by the time Florida is underwater, exactly how much say should they get on that versus who actually has to deal with it?

[Springfield]

Well, they need to figure out a plan to put the people displaced by M4A to work immediately, or they’ll never get the White House.  2 million people, plus their loved ones not voting for the democratic candidate is enough to earn trump another 4 years.

 

Its part of why I support candidates who will build on ACA.  It’s much easier to build on what already exists and what people already like and work gradually towards M4A.

[Renegade7]

2 minutes ago, Springfield said:

Well, they need to figure out a plan to put the people displaced by M4A to work immediately, or they’ll never get the White House.  2 million people, plus their loved ones not voting for the democratic candidate is enough to earn trump another 4 years.

 

Its part of why I support candidates who will build on ACA.  It’s much easier to build on what already exists and what people already like and work gradually towards M4A.

 

Why does it have to be immediate job placement if full MFA is expected for 3 to 4 years after bill is signed?  If the help is made avaliable as soon as its passed, is that different?  If you worried about the 2million, what about the contraction in the health care industry from cost controls? 

 

Theres block Grant's in house bill for that, but the change will still be felt. Should we not do that because it will cost jobs, too?  People like Pete, Biden, and other moderates are blasting MFA too much to make it possible, they are dont want it, why they have no problem killing the support for it.

 

ACA isnt working at cost control, neither will Public Option.  Building on ACA will help more people get insured, but wont stop health care costs from getting out of control.  This isnt the thread for this, but this isnt a fringe issue, it still has majority support.

 

If people would rather have Trump then MFA, that's a bigger problem.

 

https://slate.com/business/2019/10/medicare-for-all-is-getting-less-popular.html

 

 

[visionary]

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

That whole “Billionaire Tears” coffee cup promotion sure didn’t do Liz any favors.

 

Gotta know your audience...

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

😧

[Springfield]

6 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Why does it have to be immediate job placement if full MFA is expected for 3 to 4 years after bill is signed?  If the help is made avaliable as soon as its passed, is that different?  If you worried about the 2million, what about the contraction in the health care industry from cost controls? 

 

Theres block Grant's in house bill for that, but the change will still be felt. Should we not do that because it will cost jobs, too?  People like Pete, Biden, and other moderates are blasting MFA too much to make it possible, they are dont want it, why they have no problem killing the support for it.

 

ACA isnt working at cost control, neither will Public Option.  Building on ACA will help more people get insured, but wont stop health care costs from getting out of control.  This isnt the thread for this, but this isnt a fringe issue, it still has majority support.

 

If people would rather have Trump then MFA, that's a bigger problem.

I think that people would rather have their jobs that they already have than to take a lesser paying job in their current field (due to cost cutting measures) or lose a job in their current field (due to job elimination).  The evil that you know versus the uncertainty of the evil you don’t.

 

You frame it as M4A vs Trump.

I frame it as a lesser version for no Trump.

[88Comrade2000]

9 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

It's not bull. A lot of the retraining for coal miners is IT related.  The fact West Virginia is an economic wasteland is a completely different topic, but saving the coal industry to save their jobs is not the answer.  

 

These 2million arent all trapped in places with limited options, and the bills include more then jus paying for education.  But at the end of the day, theres 27 million people in this country with no insurance at all, let alone underinsured or paying too GD much, like myself. Saying 2million vs 27million isnt anymore fair then jus telling everyone to deal with it the way it is, the way it is is broken and most importantly unsubstainable.

 

Public Option isnt enough to stop price rising by itself, and trying to do wholesale costs control to anything close to Medicare rates while not doing MFA will still cause the contraction opponents of MFA keep talking about.  The Public Option isnt designed to fix the issue of out of control price rising, it's designed to pass congress.  Jus look at Maryland and their attempts to make Medicare rates fair with respect to private insurance wanting as much money as possible, it's actually making it worse.

 

https://reason.com/2019/06/26/marylands-health-care-price-controls-medicare-for-all-single-payer/

 

You cant implement price controls and make profit driven private insurance companies happy, they directly coninflict with each other.

 

This correction, whatever it ends up looking like is due to the system being broken in the first place.  I havent seen a clean number on who these 2million are, I'm guessing its folks that specialize in the different admin overheard from the number of different insurance models primarily. 

 

Private insurance isnt going away in either bill, it's being forced to not offer competing services with the new version of Medicare.  That means the private insurance companies will shrink, that doesnt mean they'll all go away.

 

Theres nothing vague about this plan, its jus too complex for 15 second sound bites.  Theres a lot I agree and disagree with on both sides, but we have decide if we want something to pass or to actually fix the problem.  Someone's going to be unhappy no matter what we do, even if we do nothing.

 

These old folks will be dead by the time Florida is underwater, exactly how much say should they get on that versus who actually has to deal with it?

They vote, in greater numbers then the younger folks.

 

You want your MFA, free college, etc..  then you young folks will have to vote in greater numbers than the older folks in the democratic primary; to give the nomination to Warren or Sanders.   Then in the fall, you will have to do the same thing in the key electoral states.  If you do that, then you can have your progressive dreams come true in 2021.

 

Otherwise you will have to wait 4 to possibly 8 years; when enough older folks have died off.  When the younger people are the majority of the voting public, then you will get the policies you want.  I don't see that happening in 2020.  I could be wrong but history shows I am more right than wrong here.  

[NoCalMike]

One big obstacle going against M4A is that because it is a foreign idea to America and Americans, it is easy to sabotage in the public square of ideas.  It is also easy to paint as "Un-American" something those "other strange countries do"  

 

MF4 is not a perfect system, there is no perfect system, but a lot of the concerns you hear from people regarding it are a bunch of nonsense that they are just repeating because they heard it on a cable news show.  Also this idea of people being so happy with their health insurance is another half-truth that is peddled by the right-wing (and even by the centrist dems when the rubber hits the road).  Yes, a lot of people will answer on a poll question that they love their insurance plan, but that is often because they barely use it, and if they do it tends to be strictly for routine visits and check ups.  Once they run into needing their plan to cover actual medical care and/or procedures and find out what their deductibles are and how little their employers actually cover, have them answer the question again.  It is hard to get people to answer those questions or think ahead for these kinds of situations, especially considering for the most part people tend to be health (enough) to get through daily life without even thinking of their insurance.