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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread


88Comrade2000
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1 hour ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

Kasich is just setting up an independent run that has no chance and will do nothing but suck votes away from Dems. **** that 

 

Republicans need to primary Trump. Not run against him as an independent in a general election. Trump will more than likely win either way. At least they could put forth the effort though. 

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1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Senate Update: How This Year’s Race Sets Up 2020

 

The 2020 Senate battleground

Senators up for re-election in 2020 and their state’s partisan lean*

INCUMBENT  
NAME PARTY STATE PARTISAN LEAN
Michael Enzi R Wyoming R+47.4
James Risch R Idaho R+34.9
James Inhofe R Oklahoma R+33.9
Mike Rounds R South Dakota R+30.6
Shelley Moore Capito R West Virginia R+30.5
Lamar Alexander R Tennessee R+28.1
Doug Jones D Alabama R+26.8
Tom Cotton R Arkansas R+24.4
Ben Sasse R Nebraska R+24.0
Pat Roberts R Kansas R+23.3
Mitch McConnell R Kentucky R+23.3
Steve Daines R Montana R+17.7
Bill Cassidy R Louisiana R+17.3
Lindsey Graham R South Carolina R+17.2
John Cornyn R Texas R+16.9
Cindy Hyde-Smith† R Mississippi R+15.4
Dan Sullivan R Alaska R+14.9
David Perdue R Georgia R+11.8
OPEN (Jon Kyl)^ R Arizona R+9.3
Joni Ernst R Iowa R+5.8
Thom Tillis R North Carolina R+5.1
Jeanne Shaheen D New Hampshire R+1.7
Mark Warner D Virginia D+0.1
Gary Peters D Michigan D+1.3
Cory Gardner R Colorado D+1.5
Tina Smith† D Minnesota D+2.1
Susan Collins R Maine D+4.9
Tom Udall D New Mexico D+7.2
Jeff Merkley D Oregon D+8.7
Dick Durbin D Illinois D+13.0
Cory Booker D New Jersey D+13.3
Chris Coons D Delaware D+13.6
Jack Reed D Rhode Island D+25.7
Ed Markey D Massachusetts D+29.4

 

* Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state or district voted and how the country voted overall. In our new partisan lean formula, 2016 presidential election results are weighted 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results are weighted 25 percent, and results from elections for the state legislature are weighted 25 percent.

† Assuming the incumbent wins a special election in 2018.

^ Sen. Jon Kyl was appointed to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain’s term but has declared he will not run for a full term in 2020.

 

 

The GOP has more seats to defend in 2020 but one thing on their side, they are defending Red state seats.  The Dems are going to need a strong nominee to help lift  their Senate candidates.   A strong Presidential nominee will bring out more Dem voters; which will help down the ballot.

 

Tall order, but at least it doesn't feel like we are just as at risk of losing seats as not gaining any.  I'm willing to bet money Susan Collins is good as done right now.  She no longer has that swing vote position and they have a dem governor.  A lot can happen in two years with going on in Georgia if Abrams wins first thing she'll is go after all that crap suppressing minority vote their.  

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There will be credible third party run in 2020.  Odds are strong, it will be someone like Kasich/Flake/Etc..   They may run in the GOP primary first but then launch a third party/independent run.  There is a constituency there that despises Trump but they can'bring themselves to vote Democrat.

 

A third party run  doesn't necessarily mean Trump is a lock for reelection.  The bulk of those voters would be pulling from liberal/moderate GOPers and independents.  That could take enough votes from Trump, to tip it to the Dems; in a 3 way race.

 

It's also possible this third party candidate draws some conservative Democratic votes and independents, that it takes away from the Democratic candidate. Thus leading to Trump winning.  I think it depends on who the Democratic nominee is.  

 

1992 and the Ross Perot candidacy would be the template.  It's believed he helped Clinton; though in reality he drew from both Clinton & Bush equally.  Clinton was going to win in 1992 regardless. 

 

I can see similar scenario in 2020.

 

Moderate/Center Left Democrat 40%

Trump 35%

Independent(Former GOPer) 20%

Others 5%

 

Now if the Dems nominate someone that's to far to the left; then it's possible this could happen:

 

Trump 37%

Far Left Democratic 33%

Independent 27%

Others 3%

 

 

This dynamic won't play itself out until the Summer of 2020.   I don't see a scenario where a third party candidate wins because Trump will have his rock solid base and the Dems can;'t nominate a candidate that bad; can they?

 

 

==========================================================================================================


 

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So far, we have 2 candidates in the race:

 

 

Announced 2020 Presidential Candidates

 

1/20/17-  Donald J Trump filed for reelection on the day of his inauguration.

7/28/17- MD Rep. John Delaney pens column, that he is running for President in 2020.

 

I said, by Christmas a couple of major candidates will have announced, so who do you think will announce by X-mas?

 

I think Kamala Harris will announce in early December. I also think it's possible, Elizabeth Warren will too. Once a couple of big names do it, flood gates will open. Donald Trump will literally go insane.

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12 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Announced 2020 Presidential Candidates

7/28/17- MD Rep. John Delaney pens column, that he is running for President in 2020.

Who? Dem primary better not be a clown car like the 2016 Republican primaries. Not trying to see this rando in a non televised JV debate.

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I still believe there are reasonable Republicans out there that aren't locked into the Trump cult. Those voters need to be pushed into voting Democrat in 2020. The Texas race gives me hope since O'Rourke competed when Texas is usually complete Repub domination.

 

O'Rourke should be the Dem candidate for President in 2020.

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2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

The Texas race gives me hope since O'Rourke competed when Texas is usually complete Repub domination.

 

O'Rourke should be the Dem candidate for President in 2020.

 

Devil's advocate...people really hate Ted Cruz. Granted, O'Rourke tapped into something, but people really hate Ted Cruz. 

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3 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:
 

Who? Dem primary better not be a clown car like the 2016 Republican primaries. Not trying to see this rando in a non televised JV debate.

There's going to be 20 to 30 candidates running.  Now by the time the actual voting starts in February 2020, that number probably will probably be cut in half: 10 to 15. 

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5 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

 

True but Beto became a superstar outside of Texas too 

Obama was a superstar also and look how things turned out. Most of his agenda has been overturned by Trump.

 

I prefer some experience.  Make Beto the veep and groom him to take over in 2024.  Get a experience vet to take on Trump in 2020 but that person only serves one term and then Beto runs in 2024.  OF course, that would mean Biden or Sanders or someone else over 70 is the nominee.

 

Beto maybe a superstar but it's one thing to run against one person in Texas vs. 20-30 other people in your own party nationwide?

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4 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Obama was a superstar also and look how things turned out. Most of his agenda has been overturned by Trump.

 

I prefer some experience.  Make Beto the veep and groom him to take over in 2024.  Get a experience vet to take on Trump in 2020 but that person only serves one term and then Beto runs in 2024.  OF course, that would mean Biden or Sanders or someone else over 70 is the nominee.

 

Beto maybe a superstar but it's one thing to run against one person in Texas vs. 20-30 other people in your own party nationwide?

 

Oh i agree, I’ve been on the Beto VP drum for a long time now. Think it’s the best way to maximize his political career and capital. Gives us potential 16yrs of Beto instead of 8 or 12. 

 

I’m not on board with Biden or Sanders at the top of the ticket tho 

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13 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Obama was a superstar also and look how things turned out. Most of his agenda has been overturned by Trump.

 

I prefer some experience.  Make Beto the veep and groom him to take over in 2024.  Get a experience vet to take on Trump in 2020 but that person only serves one term and then Beto runs in 2024.  OF course, that would mean Biden or Sanders or someone else over 70 is the nominee.

 

Beto maybe a superstar but it's one thing to run against one person in Texas vs. 20-30 other people in your own party nationwide?

Not really sure what connection you're drawing between Obama's quick rise and his work being overturned.

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7 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

 

Oh i agree, I’ve been on the Beto VP drum for a long time now. Think it’s the best way to maximize his political career and capital. Gives us potential 16yrs of Beto instead of 8 or 12. 

 

I’m not on board with Biden or Sanders at the top of the ticket tho 

I think both are running but the Democratic nominee will be someone in their 40's or 50's.

 

I think Obama became president too soon.

 

If history would've went this way:

 

Hillary defeats Mccain in 2008 and Obama is her veep.

Trump does run 2012 and sadly, defeats Hillary.

Obama runs in 2016 and crushes Trump. Trump lands in prison in 2017.

 

 

2 minutes ago, dfitzo53 said:

Not really sure what connection you're drawing between Obama's quick rise and his work being overturned.

I think he made several tactical mistakes, which caused alot of agenda to be eventually overturned.  I think those mistakes were made because he didn't have that much experience.

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58 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I think both are running but the Democratic nominee will be someone in their 40's or 50's.

 

I think Obama became president too soon.

 

If history would've went this way:

 

Hillary defeats Mccain in 2008 and Obama is her veep.

Trump does run 2012 and sadly, defeats Hillary.

Obama runs in 2016 and crushes Trump. Trump lands in prison in 2017.

 

I doubt Trump ever even runs if Obama isn’t there for Trump to lead the birthed movement against. 

 

In that scenario, Hilary wins 08-16 and then Obama could be 16-24. 

 

I have no idea how the presidencies would have worked out because it’s jmpossible to predict how insane Republicans would have gone with Hilary 

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10 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

 

I have no idea how the presidencies would have worked out because it’s jmpossible to predict how insane Republicans would have gone with Hilary 

 

That's the problem with the entire scenario. Obama's biggest mistake was expecting the Republicans to ultimately put what's best for the country ahead of their own politics. He was wrong and they were alot more amoral than anyone could have guessed and I bet that includes themselves. 

 

"Destroying his legacy" was Trumps goal and we gave him the power to do it, not Obama. 

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IMO Gavin Newsom is a much better candidate for Prez than Beto, this whole Beto thing is a bit nutty IMO.

 

The unfortunate thing with Newsom is he just won the governorship of California so there's no way he would run in 2020 but when the democrats screw up and lose to Trump again he can be a great candidate in 2024.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I still believe there are reasonable Republicans out there that aren't locked into the Trump cult.

If you are speaking about Republican voters, I think you are wrong.  I was Republican until recently.  I held on way too long.  Anyone who is still holding on is a lost cause.  

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1 hour ago, hail2skins said:

Still intrigued by Klobuchar now to see how Trump deals with a relatively low profile woman who wasn't despised like Hillary was.

 

Me too. Midwesterner. Likeable. Yale University and University of Chicago Law School graduate. Prosecuting attorney. Three term U.S. Senator.

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