Dan T. Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Has a standing President ever lost a bid for reelection as a result of his own party’s primary? Has a political party ever withdrawn its support for a standing President in his bid for re-election? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Yes. But not since the 1800s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 It didn't happen officially, but essentially I think that is what happened to LBJ in 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 My money was on Moscow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 37 minutes ago, visionary said: Kasich would get crush in a gop primary. If he doesn't mind electing a dem; running 3rd party in the fall is the way to go. He would draw enough votes from Trump; the election tips to the dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said: Kasich would get crush in a gop primary. If he doesn't mind electing a dem; running 3rd party in the fall is the way to go. He would draw enough votes from Trump; the election tips to the dems. Well he almost certainly would mind helping elect a Dem which is why he'd primary Trump insted of running 3rd party. He's a never-Trumper not a Democrat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 I'd love to see someone like Kasich primary Trump, but the issue I think is that any GOP challenger would have to distinguish themselves from a policy perspective. People may not like the narcissistic show that Trump puts on a daily basis, but folks make the argument that, policy wise, he is governing like just about any conservative would. The SCOTUS judges so far. Foreign policy seems like a lot of bark, but little change to previous GOP stances. Immigration is a hot button topic for debate, but tightening up the immigration processes thru sensible reform seems to have support. The one notable area he seems to be breaking from the party is on tariffs, and we'll see what impact that has on the economy. If we slip into a recession within the next two years, all bets are off, and any contender, whether it is in the GOP primary or a Dem in the general, will have a decent chance of beating him. That said, I remember in the latter part of last year there was a poll taken which indicated that if the election had been held again, Trump would've still prevailed over Hillary. But I wonder if, sitting here 18 months into Trump's presidency, if GOP voters had to choose again in the primary, if they would gone with someone else over Trump today. Rdskns2000 does bring up the scenario of Kasich running third party. This week you had Comey and Clapper openly advocating people to go out in vote for the Dems in the midterms to thwart Trump. If Kasich feels as much antipathy toward Trump as those two do, he might very well consider an independent run in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Now and for the last 20+ years, Fox News is the Republican Party. They set the platform, distribute the talking points and vet the candidates. If Fox decides that Kasich, or anybody else, is to unseat Trump in a primary, then it’s as good as done. No ifs, ands or buts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 2 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said: Now and for the last 20+ years, Fox News is the Republican Party. They set the platform, distribute the talking points and vet the candidates. If Fox decides that Kasich, or anybody else, is to unseat Trump in a primary, then it’s as good as done. No ifs, ands or buts. Fox isn't doing a damn thing. Fox goes against Fox and Trump will make sure there's a network competing against Trump. Trump's core supporters are NEVER leaving him. Collusion doesn't matter. Russia helped him get elected, well that's great. Russia saved us from Hillary. Give Putin the Medal of Honor. Economy is bad, well it isn't Trump's fault. Trump's diehard voters will stay with him. A bad economy may convince those always GOP voters not to vote for Trump again. They won't vote Democrat but maybe third party. 2020 is a ripe for a Ross Perot type candidate. The bad economy could convince some suburban GOP women to maybe vote Dem. People can run against Trump in the GOP primary, they will not beat Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 The economy is bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Kilmer17 said: The economy is bad? I don;t think he said that. Yes, I know, if you pick one sentence out of a paragraph, you can claim that he did. I just don;t think that was the message of the paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 He said it twice though. Maybe just a clunky sentence structure. But “the bad economy” is far different from “A bad economy”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 He (I think it's him. Maybe somebody else.) has made the point about 30 times that the election in 2020 will be determined exclusively on whether the economy is perceived as good, at the time. (I think it's a valid point. That's almost always what determines Presidential reelections.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 That makes sense and I agree. Just came across as a statement of fact about the current situation I think “the economy” will be a more micro focused issue. So a good national economy won’t matter if folks in the rust belt think that they’re local economy is still bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 7 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said: Fox isn't doing a damn thing. Fox goes against Fox and Trump will make sure there's a network competing against Trump. Trump's core supporters are NEVER leaving him. Collusion doesn't matter. Russia helped him get elected, well that's great. Russia saved us from Hillary. Give Putin the Medal of Honor. Economy is bad, well it isn't Trump's fault. Trump's diehard voters will stay with him. A bad economy may convince those always GOP voters not to vote for Trump again. They won't vote Democrat but maybe third party. 2020 is a ripe for a Ross Perot type candidate. The bad economy could convince some suburban GOP women to maybe vote Dem. People can run against Trump in the GOP primary, they will not beat Trump. We voted 3rd party in 2016 as well but Never Trumper's won't run as a 3rd party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 It seems to me that if your stance is "We don't want Trump to be president, but we won't run 3rd party because that would allow a Democrat to win," you aren't really "Never Trump." You're "Trump is our last resort." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, dfitzo53 said: It seems to me that if your stance is "We don't want Trump to be president, but we won't run 3rd party because that would allow a Democrat to win," you aren't really "Never Trump." You're "Trump is our last resort." I think it more on the personal level they cannot vote for Trump and do not wish to harm what's left of the party, besides Never Democrat just doesn't sing. I think he is wrong and someone will run 3rd party, but it will not be Kasich or his like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, twa said: I think he is wrong and someone will run 3rd party, but it will not be Kasich or his like Is it too early to hazard a guess as to whether a serious third party run would benefit more, Trump or the Dem running against him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 It would benefit Trump. His base isn’t going anywhere. A 3rd party vote just takes swing/independent voters away from the Dem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 1 hour ago, dfitzo53 said: It seems to me that if your stance is "We don't want Trump to be president, but we won't run 3rd party because that would allow a Democrat to win," you aren't really "Never Trump." You're "Trump is our last resort." Well there is no way we think Democratic policies are better. Heck the policies that he implements that we (Never Trumpers) really don't like for the most part are policies the Dems traditionally champion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, nonniey said: Well there is no way we think Democratic policies are better. I'm not telling you what to believe, I'm just pointing out that NeverTrump is inaccurate if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, nonniey said: Well there is no way we think Democratic policies are better. Heck the policies that he implements that we (Never Trumpers) really don't like for the most part are policies the Dems traditionally champion). Like what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Larry said: He (I think it's him. Maybe somebody else.) has made the point about 30 times that the election in 2020 will be determined exclusively on whether the economy is perceived as good, at the time. (I think it's a valid point. That's almost always what determines Presidential reelections.) Picky, picky. I should've clarified by using, "if". If the economy is bad on election day 2020; his supporters will stay with him. They will not blame Trump. Your always GOP voter though, may not vote for Trump in 2020; if there's a bad economy then. They won't vote Dems but may vote third party. A bad economy in 2020, does give Dems a shot at suburban women voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 Can anyone think of what candidate can actually beat Trump in 2020? What does that person need to appeal to, to win over enough voters to get 270 evs? Hillary got 230 something Evs. So, Dems need to win her states and flip back probably 3 states that total at least 40 evs. Florida is one possibility if enough Puerto Ricans have moved here. What that rust belt State can be clipped back? Or can the Dem win a couple of electoral rich southern states? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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