Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[Spaceman Spiff]

2 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

I do not believe this. Not at all. The absurd jolt of losing a real child, due to a virus that one man has gone out of his way to exacerbate, could not cause that person to vote for said man.

 

I mean, not unless you simply hated your child.

 

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

I agree. I find this very hard to believe. There may be people who end up doing just that thing - voting for trump even though they had a loved one die of covid - but I can never see someone advertizing it unless they are truly sick. I honestly hope this is fake. It's beyond sad to think someone is that miserable in their lives. 

 

It's 2020, haven't you two learned?

[88Comrade2000]

I hope I am wrong, but I think Joe barely wins. 270-268. Winning WI, MI,AZ and NE-2nd district.

 

I think Joe will not win PA. The pro fracking/oil will be greater than the suburban moms.

If I am wrong, then it's 290- 248.

 

Expect pure post election day hell.  To avoid that, Joe has to win FL. FL  always let Dems down.

[Mr. Sinister]

18 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

 

It's 2020, haven't you two learned?

 

Kids are like my last line of defense, man. 

 

#SaveTheKids

[goskins10]

57 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

 

 

 

Donald Trump has a chance of being reelected.  

 

I do not see what in my comment would suggest he does not have a chance. My point was an is I really hope no one is so lost morally that they would actually write something so heinous on their own shirt. It's clear he has a chance - and unfortunately a good chance. Wasn't really what I was addressing. 

26 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

 

It's 2020, haven't you two learned?

 

I get what you are saying but there has to be some limits. Again, if that shirt is legit, that is a very sad individual and I honestly feel sorry for them. 

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

I do not see what in my comment would suggest he does not have a chance. My point was an is I really hope no one is so lost morally that they would actually write something so heinous on their own shirt. It's clear he has a chance - and unfortunately a good chance. Wasn't really what I was addressing. 

 

I get what you are saying but there has to be some limits. Again, if that shirt is legit, that is a very sad individual and I honestly feel sorry for them. 

I think @Larry point is that people are in fact that lost morally. If they weren't morally lost, Trump would be polling around 5 percent instead of having a chance to be re-elected. 

[skinsmarydu]

Just watching a correspondent from NH where trump is...the background music is "Everybody Hurts" by REM. 

Holy ****. 

[Larry]

20 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I do not see what in my comment would suggest he does not have a chance. My point was an is I really hope no one is so lost morally that they would actually write something so heinous on their own shirt. It's clear he has a chance - and unfortunately a good chance. Wasn't really what I was addressing.

 

I wasn't saying you thought he didn't have a chance.  

 

I was pointing out that the number of heinous people in the US is considerably larger than decent people like to think it is.  

 

[goskins10]

3 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

I wasn't saying you thought he didn't have a chance.  

 

I was pointing out that the number of heinous people in the US is considerably larger than decent people like to think it is.  

 

 

 

Fair enough. I was just making a different point about parents and children. I get what you re saying and it's disgusting to be honest - not you of course - the idea that we have gotten to the point where we would even consider someone writing something that hideous on a shirt could be true. 

 

Every day is more proof we are voting for the soul of this country. 

[spjunkies]

I think there is a high chance that trump might do much worse than people are thinking. His "supporters" might put on the maga facade when questioned by their friends, spouses and poll takers, but actually vote Biden or make no presidential selection when it actually comes down to it. I have absolutely no proof for this just a gut instinct. 

 

If this was a traditional candidate like George Bush this theory would never cross my mind. 

[Simmsy]

3 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

I do not believe this. Not at all. The absurd jolt of losing a real child, due to a virus that one man has gone out of his way to exacerbate, could not cause that person to vote for said man.

 

I mean, not unless you simply hated your child.

On the front, it says he was the ugliest son.

[PokerPacker]

10 hours ago, visionary said:

 

Hey, he just publicly confessed to a felony.   Lock him up.

[Dan T.]

1 hour ago, Califan007 said:

Just one more reason why Trump has got to go...

 

 

 

Activist with ties to Ohio Republican legislators plotted to kidnap and kill Governor Mike DeWine

Local newspapers in Ohio have exposed a plot led by Republican activist Renea Turner to build a “posse” to kidnap and murder the state’s governor, Mike DeWine. Though DeWine is a Republican and a Trump supporter, he was evidently targeted for implementing mild restrictions to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed over 5,100 Ohioans.

 

Turner confirmed in a Friday interview with Cleveland.com that she was trying to recruit people to place the governor under “house arrest.” The plan was revealed when an individual she attempted to recruit filed a police report last week. State police then visited Turner but did not make an arrest. As of this writing, not a single national news publication had reported the Ohio developments.

 

[...]Turner is a Trump supporter who has connections to a group of Republican state legislators who have been calling for DeWine to be arrested for the damage to business interests caused by statewide lockdown measures.

 

 

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/10/24/ohio-o24.html

 

 

 

What I'm trying to wrap my head around is that despite essentially confessing to the plot, she and her co-conspirators have NOT been arrested. 

 

And that this news story - a plot to kidnap the governor of a U.S. state and either "exile" or execute him - has pretty much gotten buried.  That's the world we are living in now

[Larry]

37 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Fair enough. I was just making a different point about parents and children. I get what you re saying and it's disgusting to be honest - not you of course - the idea that we have gotten to the point where we would even consider someone writing something that hideous on a shirt could be true. 

 

We have reached a point in this country where, when an infectious disease is killing 1,000 Americans a day, the political Party in power can decide, as a Party, to oppose any effort to slow or prevent it, and have near half of the public enthusiastically support the position.  

 

I mean, I expected the Republicans, when they gained power, to mysteriously decide that deficits don't matter, and let's get to work using government money to inflate an economy that was already growing well.  The notion of the fiscal conservative was never a real one in the first place.  

 

but one of the principals that I thought they actually believed in, was the notion of The Evil Empire.  In fact, I thought that they went too far, with their belief that opposing Russia by propping up dictators all over the world was a consequence of their over-pursuit of that goal.  But I could understand the goal.  

 

But when the former KGB is literally acting to help their candidate?  Nope.  That principle goes away like a soap bubble.  

 

Trump threatening to disband NATO?  Could you ****ing imagine any previous Republican doing that, and not being impeached by his own Party?  But nope.  Guess that principle isn;t important, either.  

 

Trump literally admitting that he fired the head of the FBI because he wouldn't agree to cover up that his campaign was colluding with Russia?  The crowd cheers. 

 

Ordering our military to abandon the forces who we've spent two years training and fighting alongside, to run away so quickly that we have to bomb our own bases, because we don't have time to pack?  To get out of the way of Turkey, for Christ's sake, who wants to come in and do some ethnic cleansing of the people we've been fighting with?  Heck, Trump's not even getting beat up over that one.  Not worth mentioning.  

 

Try to imagine any previous Republican announcing that he wants to abandon Afghanistan, and the Taliban is happy with the plan, but the Afghan government isn't signing on.  

 

Recognizing Russia's successful invasion and annexation of a small European country, so they can achieve a strategic goal (a warm mater port) that they've wanted for decades?  

 

Scuttling a free trade agreement that would have included (I think it was) 60% of the world's GDP, and excluded China?  

 

Ending an agreement that successfully halted the Ayatollah of Iran's plans for acquiring nuclear weapons, without firing a shot?  And then spending four years not attempting to replace it with anything?  

 

- - - - 

 

Other than bigotry, is there a single thing that the GOP used to claim was one of their bedrock principles, that they aren't perfectly willing to sacrifice on the alter of seeking political power?  And I'm not just talking about the big names on Capitol Hill.  i assume a lot of them are simply power hungry opportunists.  I'm talking about the hundreds of millions of people who support them.  

 

- - - - 

 

Edit:  

 

And if that list isn't depressing enough?  

 

I point to the fact that most of the above points aren't even being used as clubs to beat to death the people who did them.  Things in this country are so bad that many of those things aren't considered worth being angry about.  

[Spaceman Spiff]

1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I hope I am wrong, but I think Joe barely wins. 270-268. Winning WI, MI,AZ and NE-2nd district.

 

I think Joe will not win PA. The pro fracking/oil will be greater than the suburban moms.

If I am wrong, then it's 290- 248.

 

Expect pure post election day hell.  To avoid that, Joe has to win FL. FL  always let Dems down.

 

Talking to a buddy of mine yesterday, pure Pennsylvanian who's father still lives there.  And It's not looking good for Biden there, according to him.  He predicted that 2020 PA will make 2000 Florida look like a children's tea party.

[PokerPacker]

1 minute ago, Dan T. said:

 

What I'm trying to wrap my head around is that despite essentially confessing to the plot, she and her co-conspirators have NOT been arrested. 

 

And that this news story - a plot to kidnap the governor of a U.S. state and either "exile" or execute him - has pretty much gotten buried.  That's the world we are living in now

We already got one attempted kidnapping of a governor.  Now it's old news.

[The Sisko]

 

31 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Fake enough. I was just making a different point about parents and children. I get what you re saying and it's disgusting to be honest - not you of course - the idea that we have gotten to the point where we would even consider someone writing something that hideous on a shirt could be true. 

 

Every day is more proof we are voting for the soul of this country. 

You may recall, as twa loved to remind us that I voted for Tя☭mp in the Georgia primary. Obviously I wasn’t a supporter. The reason I did it was that I was absolutely certain the upper limit on his support would be in the 25-30% range in every non-southern state in the country and that a vote for him then would ensure a victory for Hillary as I’ve always seen her as a poor campaigner. Election night 2016 shattered my faith in the humanity of the majority of this country. Given that, I’m not only not surprised by her shirt, I’d expect it from people like her. Tя☭mp and the Grand Oligarch’s Party are populated by a very large percentage of people with an avoid the boogeyman at all costs mentality. The boogeyman for some is the QAnon BS, for others it’s race, guns, religion, so-called socialism, etc. The common denominator is they’re all willing to sacrifice literally anything to achieve their objective, even the country or their own kids. Hillary was wrong when she called them deplorables. She should have said garbage instead.

 

So as we rapidly approach Election Day, I have an ever-growing sense of dread, polls be damned. I hope I’m wrong about it. However, I won’t feel fully relieved until I see Biden sworn in and even then, I suspect that may just be a temporary reprieve, not a repudiation or ending of Tя☭mpism. 

[China]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

 

Nationally, voters have cast 42.6% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election.

 

In Texas they already have 80% of the total votes counted in 2016 and we're still a week away from election day.

 

 

[PokerPacker]

1 minute ago, The Sisko said:

You may recall, as twa loved to remind us that I voted for Tя☭mp in the Georgia primary. Obviously I wasn’t a supporter. The reason I did it was that I was absolutely certain the upper limit on his support would be in the 25-30% range in every non-southern state in the country and that a vote for him then would ensure a victory for Hillary as I’ve always seen her as a poor campaigner.

I cannot support actions like this.  You voted to nominate the greater of evils to hurt people on the other side of the political spectrum from you to make sure they didn't have anybody they could feel good about voting for so your candidate would look like the lesser of two evils.  You should be called out on acting in bad faith.

[Fergasun]

Look, here's the deal.  I would bet this board skews high to the college-educated "Trump is the worst President ever".  There is some group of non college-educated people who believe thaf Trump represents them best in some way.  Most of us all live in our own bubbles. 

 

I can't wrap my mind around it, but there's some group of people that are vehemently anti-immigrant.  I imagine they were cheering during the immigration topic of the debate.  Trump ending catch and release is good.  Immigrants are why I don't have a great job. 15 years ago I was anti-immigrant.  I advocated hard against comprehensive immigration reform under Bush on this board and that if people come here they should be screwed over and "live un the shadows", and I was post-college.  That's such a cruel argument to make, especially since the collective we take advantage of them, no matter how you look at it.  

 

I can't wrap my mind around it, but there's some group of people who think politicians are flat corrupt, on both sides.  Biden's son getting special favors when he is clearly a worthless drug addict is something they want to latch onto.  My family doesn't get special favors, heck I could even have a drug addicted son, but he didn't land on his feet like Hunter Biden.  Trump gives these crooked politicians what theh deserve.  

 

I personally don't spend too much time in circles like this, but I do know Christians who want to see Roe v. Wade overturned, heck... I married one (she voted Biden though).  It is hard to severe a fundamental belief like "I am pro-life and family and so is the GOP" from your vote. A vote for a Democrat is a vote for Satan.  

 

And then there are people who support GOP purely out of financial greed because they don't want their taxes touched.

 

Trump has managed to keep this coalition at 40% support for his whole Presidency.  I don't see how a President with his low approval rating gets re-elected.  

 

Everyone has had 4 years to see and evaluate Trump. Anecdotally, so many people have come out against Trump, but he still has this rabid fanbase, that is strange.  It's more galavizing than the GOP supporters because he brought in the fringe right. 

 

I hope Charlie Cook nailed it and we are all handwringing and worrying way too much, the media is playing this for a horse race.  I hope that demographic trends over 4 years, the new 18 to 22 year old first time voters can bring sanity back to the Presidency.  We have had nothing but twitter tweet storm headaches, and November 3 is finally an time when we can say, "Will you please shut up and get out of our lives."  I hope... 

[China]

Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020

 

The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic candidate is in the lead. But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us? FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta explains why you shouldn’t give up on polling.

 

Click on the link for a video

 

-----------------

 

Wrong or Imprecise? Understanding the Polls in the 2016 and 2020 Elections

 

Click on the link for a lesson

 

-----------------

 

Today’s 2020 Election Polls: Biden Outpaces Clinton’s 2016 Numbers By Double Digits In Red States

 

KEY BACKGROUND
There’s little to no chance Biden wins Montana or Kansas—but his stronger polling numbers there suggest Biden is in a stronger polling position than Clinton was in 2016. Biden’s average polling lead in national polls continues to hover around 10 points and his vote share above 50%, two bars Clinton never hit. The former vice president has also maintained steadier leads in battlegrounds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He leads narrowly in polling averages in Arizona and North Carolina, two states Clinton never led in and ultimately lost. 

 

SURPRISING FACT
A Quinnipiac University poll of voters in Texas released Wednesday found Biden and Trump tied in the state (47%-47%).  Trump leads by .6 points on average in the state, after winning by 9 points in 2016. 

 

WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Biden’s support from voters who backed third party candidates in 2016. A disproportionate number of voters opted to pull the lever for a third party candidate in 2016, as Clinton and Trump enjoyed record low approval ratings. This year, Morning Consult found most of those voters will be backing a major party candidate, and a majority of them (53%) are voting for Biden, not Trump (21%), according to polling results. 

 

Click on the link for more

 

[Hersh]

46 minutes ago, China said:

KEY BACKGROUND
There’s little to no chance Biden wins Montana or Kansas—but his stronger polling numbers there suggest Biden is in a stronger polling position than Clinton was in 2016.

 

This, along with Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Arizona all in play is the true indicator of the race. Trump having to campaign a lot in NC and Ohio, as well as the desperation play in Minnesota, also tells the story of the race. 

 

It's logical to believe that if those states are all significantly different in the poll numbers that the slim margins Trump won elsewhere will flip in enough states to give Biden a comfortable win. 

 

 

Side note: I find voting in Texas to be fascinating. That might be the most interesting state election night to me given the Dems have a chance to flip house seats, win a Senate seat and Biden could win the state. 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

[Larry]

10 minutes ago, Hersh said:

Side note: I find voting in Texas to be fascinating. That might be the most interesting state election night to me given the Dems have a chance to flip house seats, win a Senate seat and Biden could win the state. 

 

It seems just outright insanity that the Dems seem (at least from where I am) to have never really tried very hard there.  

 

I mean, not only would possibly getting Texas' EVs constitute a landslide huge enough to make all other states irrelevant.  Can you just imagine what a Utopia it would be if the Dems could score, somehow, the ability to at least oppose some of Texas' gerrymandering for the next 10 years?  (Yes, I realize that Biden winning Texas doesn't translate to Dems controlling the state legislature.  Gerrymandering, remember?  It would be a gigantic long shot.  But still.)  

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[visionary]