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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
in The Tailgate

TK
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goskins10

goskins10

Posted
Posted

I am sure I am not the only one who used to go to the Mall and watch the Beach Boys on 4th of July. Me and some friends would get there a few days out and find a good place to hang out (camp (lol). It was actually more to see the other bands but the Beach Boys were good. Glad the core of them are disavowing this ignorance. 

 

Ther other problem with the data below is it's hard to tell how much money has been spent outside the campaign for candidates. That number has grown significantly over the years. SO which is more effective, the campaign ad buys? The outside buys? And where? Is it the same/different in different parts of the country? To me there are way to many moving parts to really tell. 

 

All the more reason to get money out of campaigning. Unlikely to happen but it's the right thing to do. I also wish we could significantly shorten the election cycle. This 18 months for president is getting old. 

 

1 hour ago, China said:

 

Interesting question, I'm seeing mixed opinions and data:

 

2012 interview:

 

Nov. Election: How Much Does Fundraising Matter?

 

Steve Inskeep talks with two political strategists on whether a fundraising advantage matters in this presidential campaign. Mark McKinnon advised George W. Bush and John McCain's campaigns. Mark Mellman is a democratic pollster and adviser.

 

MELLMAN: Well, Mark's right. Eighty percent of what we do in a campaign is wasted. The problem is we don't know which 80 percent in advance, so we do it all. And that's exactly what these campaigns are doing. They're raising every dollar they can to spend every dollar they can. Does it all matter? No. But nobody's going to be able to sit here today and say in advance that any particular difference in spending won't make the ultimate difference on Election Day.

 

MCKINNON: Yes. And, Steve, you're right. I mean, you don't want to be the guy on the campaign who said, you know, let's hold off on that last million dollars in Ohio and then lose by 200 votes. You know, sometimes, we don't even get the gross-rating points that Mark's talking about because what we're really trying to do is affect the media narrative, create an overall impression, an overall narrative that stitches together the story that you're trying to tell.

 

MELLMAN: Mark's right. The primaries are different. The general elections are different. But the fundamental fact is this: nobody can sit here today in what would otherwise be a close race and say that extra million, five million, 10 million, $50 million might not make the difference of a few hundred votes in Florida, a few hundred votes in Ohio or Nevada, whatever. And Mark has been to elections where a few hundred votes in a particular state made all the difference between winning and losing.

 

2014 article:

 

Party fundraising is a terrible predictor of election results

 

Every quarter, the Democratic and Republican campaign committees report how much money they raised to the Federal Election Commission, and every quarter the numbers are used as a sort of meta-horserace gauge that will hopefully shed some light on what to expect the following November. The only problem is that, in recent election cycles, the fundraising totals haven't actually told us much of anything about who is going to do better on Election Day.

 

F2PCZDWXFM6C7LOPVFPZK6UESI.png&w=916

 

In 2006, the NRCC outraised (and outspent) the Dems by a wide margin. The Democrats retook the House. In 2010, it was reversed. Those outliers broke any correlation in half.

 

We expanded this outward, looking at how the Senate committees did and how overall party fundraising compared to seat changes in the House and Senate and, for presidential years, the electoral vote margin. It's all over the place.

 

GUPH4EBIAQ5Q5CTLTU3DN3QDGU.png&w=916

 

 

 

 

 

2018 article:

 

How Money Affects Elections

 

The candidate who spends the most money usually wins


How strong is the association between campaign spending and political success? For House seats, more than 90 percent of candidates who spend the most win. From 2000 through 2016, there was only one election cycle where that wasn’t true: 2010. “In that election, 86 percent of the top spenders won,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group that tracks campaign fundraising and spending.

 

mkb-spending-09-10.jpg?w=575

 

But that doesn’t mean spending caused the win

 

Money is certainly strongly associated with political success. But, “I think where you have to change your thinking is that money causes winning,” said Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers. “I think it’s more that winning attracts money.”

 

Click on the links for more

 

 

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China

China

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

All the more reason to get money out of campaigning. Unlikely to happen but it's the right thing to do. I also wish we could significantly shorten the election cycle. This 18 months for president is getting old. 

 

 

 

 

I agree, and have said before that the US should limit by law the length of election cycles so that elected officials spend more time working and less time campaigning.  People were already tired of the election process back in February:

 

Americans are already exhausted with the 2020 election, and it's just getting started. Other countries have laws limiting the length of campaigns.

 

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Larry

Larry

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, China said:

 

I agree, and have said before that the US should limit by law the length of election cycles so that elected officials spend more time working and less time campaigning.  People were already tired of the election process back in February:

 

Americans are already exhausted with the 2020 election, and it's just getting started. Other countries have laws limiting the length of campaigns.

 

 

Problem with your theory is, they're never "working".  They're always campaigning.  

 

The Day Biden takes office, every Republican in Washington will instantly become a "fiscal conservative".  Will suddenly notice the deficit which every one of them enthusiastically voted for.  And demand that Biden fix this, and every other mess they created.  

 

And will oppose any and all efforts to fix it.  

 

They will oppose any attempt to stimulate the economy.  

 

All the money they threw at corporations, under Trump?  They'll demand the corporations pay it back, under Biden.  Because throwing money at corporations helps the economy, and demanding they pay it back hurts it.  

 

And they don't want the economy to get better.  If the economy gets better, then the voters will give the Dems credit for it, and vote Dem.  

 

They will unanimously fight to block any attempt to improve the economy.  

 

Just like they did for Obama.  

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The Sisko

The Sisko

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

The Beach Boys are dead to me. God only knows what I’ll be without you, but don’t worry baby, I’ll figure it out. ✌🏻

I’ve never understood the fascination with them but, whatever turns your crank. Fortunately for you and the rest of their fans the real Beach Boys spoke up. Still pretty P.O.d that Koonyay and now Ice Cube decided to sell out. West is almost certainly mentally ill so I can excuse him to some degree, but Cube? C’mon man!!😡😡😡

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Larry

Larry

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

I’ve never understood the fascination with them but, whatever turns your crank. Fortunately for you and the rest of their fans the real Beach Boys spoke up. Still pretty P.O.d that Koonyay and now Ice Cube decided to sell out. West is almost certainly mentally ill so I can excuse him to some degree, but Cube? C’mon man!!😡😡😡

 

Biden needs to get Ice T to endorse him.  For Law & Order.  

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michiskin

michiskin

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Sisko said:

I’ve never understood the fascination with them but, whatever turns your crank. Fortunately for you and the rest of their fans the real Beach Boys spoke up. Still pretty P.O.d that Koonyay and now Ice Cube decided to sell out. West is almost certainly mentally ill so I can excuse him to some degree, but Cube? C’mon man!!😡😡😡

Cube is right that neither party has done the absolute best they can for black folk, but only one party supports giving the po po the right to be judge, jury and executioner when it comes to African Americans. And it ain't the Democrats.

 

The timing of his ruckus-raising ain't the best either. A month before an election that is a true crossroads for this country.

 

"I never have dinner with the President
I never have dinner with the President
I never have dinner with the President
And when I see your ass again, I'll be hesitant…"

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NoCalMike

NoCalMike

Posted
Posted

As absurd as those headlines are.......I am worried one day that deep fake technology is going to be able to  manipulate enough people into swaying elections.

 

As far as Ice Cube....I read that he was in debt, has some kind of lawsuit against him tied up in court and he is looking for money.   I don't really have an issue with Ice Cube going to whoever is in power and asking them for representation in their community.  

 

Brian Wilson is not happy about The Beach Boys fundraiser.

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