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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread


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2 hours ago, hail2skins said:

The area where Trump probably has bragging rights is in wage growth......it was picking up toward the end of Obama's presidency, but seems to have accelerated a bit under Trump. 

 

Actually, just caught a bit on TV where a talking head was announcing how Trump's masterful handling of the economy made the income of poor Americans go up.  

 

And remembering at least reading here that yes, the average income of the lower class went up under Trump.  But it went up because big blue states and cities raised their minimum wages, over unanimous Republican opposition.  

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I wish I could find the video: Trump was at a breaking ground ceremony and he was making weird motions with his hands. I had to watch the clip several times to figure out what the hell he was doing. He was mimicking digging...like...with a shovel. Thats when I realized, the dude has no idea how a shovel works...

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7 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

I have a good friend who lives in Crisfield and works in Salisbury and she sees nothing but trump crap. Very large % of the Eastern Shore is trump territory. However, the state is overwhelmingly Dem. If trump wins Md it means we are totally ****ed. Last I saw biden was up by almost 30%. 

 

I've been impressed by the variations of signs and flags for the Biden campaign around our county in PA...Veterans for Biden, Republicans for Biden, Unions for Biden. I've seen at least 10 different signs.

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1 minute ago, AJ* said:

 

I've been impressed by the variations of signs and flags for the Biden campaign around our county in PA...Veterans for Biden, Republicans for Biden, Unions for Biden. I've seen at least 10 different signs.

One couple I know (white pro musicians who couldn't have children and adopted a black baby) have the most awesome signs.  They are all handmade, like little Max is quite the artist now. You could throw a rock from their yard to the library where voting is going on.  :)

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Yes someone already brought it up, as I was too distracted from the.....eh...game today....to follow up.  The wage growth Trump is touting was a result of blue states having minimum wage escalators going into effect after Obama's term as a lot of states chose to phase in rises in minimum wage over the course of a handful of years instead of raise it all at once.  So I guess you could give Trump credit for........not attempt to executive decision away those min wage hikes?  Again, this information is not hard to find, and should be used anytime Trump tries to take credit for wage growth.

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4 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

The maddening thing about the whole Trump = Good Economy thing is that it is 100% just people listening to what Fox and other right-wing outlets are saying.  When you look at the actual data, nothing Trump or those outlets say stands up.   For starters, you can't claim the economy was great under Trump without acknowledging that Obama handed off a strong economy to Trump.  Now I have been critical of some aspects of Obama's recovery, but those criticisms remained largely in tact into Trump's first term, so I am calling it a wash on that for the sake of the overall economy issue.   The actual numbers in fact show that the economy slowed down under Trump, and this was before the Covid effect.  Where we are TODAY is largely in part due to Trump politicizing Covid to begin with and allowing it to have much longer lasting effects then if he would have come up with a unified message on it to begin with, 

 

I don't think the Biden campaign hammered Trump on the economy enough and they should have because that's been Trump's only perceived strength in this election. Before Covid American businesses were getting taxed to death through Trump's tariffs when their raw material costs went up and of course that cost was passed to consumers to the tune of billions of dollars. The BLS revised the job totals half a million less than estimates which didn't say much for those tax cuts that exploded the deficit. Manufacturing was in a recession all through 2019. Farmers were suffering due to tariff retaliation and still getting billions in bailouts, The coal industry Trump promised to save saw bankruptcies accelerate under his administration which is why his "war on coal" slogan Republicans love to use has been MIA this entire election cycle. And GDP growth was the main argument for the tax cuts. It was 2% last year. The Biden campaign had a treasure trove of things he could hit Trump with and attempt to weaken his greatest strength but for some reason decided to let Trump have that "greatest economy ever before Covid" narrative.

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1 minute ago, AJ* said:

 

I don't think the Biden campaign hammered Trump on the economy enough and they should have because that's been Trump's only perceived strength in this election. 

 

Agreed.  It really feels like whoever is running Biden's campaign has taken the stance that Trump is such a disaster that just allowing him to make a fool out of himself is enough, and to a certain extent that is correct, but there are a faction of Trump voters who don't really like him and might be able to be swayed, but they fall back on the belief that Trump has performed miracles on the economy. 

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5 minutes ago, AJ* said:

The Biden campaign had a treasure trove of things he could hit Trump with and attempt to weaken his greatest strength but for some reason decided to let Trump have that "greatest economy ever before Covid" narrative.

 

Or he figures that for most Americans, how they feel about the economy is based on their own bank balance, and if Trump wants to tell all those people in the suburbs that Trump thinks this is the greatest economy ever, let him go ahead and try to sell that.  

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38 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Agreed.  It really feels like whoever is running Biden's campaign has taken the stance that Trump is such a disaster that just allowing him to make a fool out of himself is enough, and to a certain extent that is correct, but there are a faction of Trump voters who don't really like him and might be able to be swayed, but they fall back on the belief that Trump has performed miracles on the economy. 

Biden is sitting on a lot of money for the next few weeks. Hopefully it's used wisely. 

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I saw a sign in my neighborhood today that said “Biden & the woman that made Brett Kavanaugh cry.”

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Agreed.  It really feels like whoever is running Biden's campaign has taken the stance that Trump is such a disaster that just allowing him to make a fool out of himself is enough, and to a certain extent that is correct, but there are a faction of Trump voters who don't really like him and might be able to be swayed, but they fall back on the belief that Trump has performed miracles on the economy. 


I feel like those voters always have the economy thing as their baseline belief, but every time the actually have to see Trump on TV they are reminded how unfit he is. 

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10 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Has there been a reliable study comparing fundraising to election results?  Like is it a reliable sign of enthusiasm that translates to the polls?

 

Interesting question, I'm seeing mixed opinions and data:

 

2012 interview:

 

Nov. Election: How Much Does Fundraising Matter?

 

Steve Inskeep talks with two political strategists on whether a fundraising advantage matters in this presidential campaign. Mark McKinnon advised George W. Bush and John McCain's campaigns. Mark Mellman is a democratic pollster and adviser.

 

MELLMAN: Well, Mark's right. Eighty percent of what we do in a campaign is wasted. The problem is we don't know which 80 percent in advance, so we do it all. And that's exactly what these campaigns are doing. They're raising every dollar they can to spend every dollar they can. Does it all matter? No. But nobody's going to be able to sit here today and say in advance that any particular difference in spending won't make the ultimate difference on Election Day.

 

MCKINNON: Yes. And, Steve, you're right. I mean, you don't want to be the guy on the campaign who said, you know, let's hold off on that last million dollars in Ohio and then lose by 200 votes. You know, sometimes, we don't even get the gross-rating points that Mark's talking about because what we're really trying to do is affect the media narrative, create an overall impression, an overall narrative that stitches together the story that you're trying to tell.

 

MELLMAN: Mark's right. The primaries are different. The general elections are different. But the fundamental fact is this: nobody can sit here today in what would otherwise be a close race and say that extra million, five million, 10 million, $50 million might not make the difference of a few hundred votes in Florida, a few hundred votes in Ohio or Nevada, whatever. And Mark has been to elections where a few hundred votes in a particular state made all the difference between winning and losing.

 

2014 article:

 

Party fundraising is a terrible predictor of election results

 

Every quarter, the Democratic and Republican campaign committees report how much money they raised to the Federal Election Commission, and every quarter the numbers are used as a sort of meta-horserace gauge that will hopefully shed some light on what to expect the following November. The only problem is that, in recent election cycles, the fundraising totals haven't actually told us much of anything about who is going to do better on Election Day.

 

F2PCZDWXFM6C7LOPVFPZK6UESI.png&w=916

 

In 2006, the NRCC outraised (and outspent) the Dems by a wide margin. The Democrats retook the House. In 2010, it was reversed. Those outliers broke any correlation in half.

 

We expanded this outward, looking at how the Senate committees did and how overall party fundraising compared to seat changes in the House and Senate and, for presidential years, the electoral vote margin. It's all over the place.

 

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2018 article:

 

How Money Affects Elections

 

The candidate who spends the most money usually wins


How strong is the association between campaign spending and political success? For House seats, more than 90 percent of candidates who spend the most win. From 2000 through 2016, there was only one election cycle where that wasn’t true: 2010. “In that election, 86 percent of the top spenders won,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group that tracks campaign fundraising and spending.

 

mkb-spending-09-10.jpg?w=575

 

But that doesn’t mean spending caused the win

 

Money is certainly strongly associated with political success. But, “I think where you have to change your thinking is that money causes winning,” said Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers. “I think it’s more that winning attracts money.”

 

Click on the links for more

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5 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

The Beach Boys are dead to me. God only knows what I’ll be without you, but don’t worry baby, I’ll figure it out. ✌🏻
 

 

 

That ****ized group Mike Love tours around with aint the Beach Boys. 

 

First concert I ever went to was Chicago opening up for the "Beach Boys". At least back then Stamos was playing drums on their tour.

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The Beach Boys played some concert on TV in DC a few years ago, might have been for a 4th of July.  They sounded like ****, and I can't imagine it has gotten any better in the years since, regardless of politics.

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@Momma There Goes That Man @clietas

 

We're saved gents!

 

https://variety.com/2020/music/news/brian-wilson-al-jardine-trump-benefit-beach-boys-disavow-california-mike-love-1234808907/

 

Quote

It will be fun, fun, fun under the California sun for many well-heeled attendees at today’s Donald Trump fundraiser in Newport Beach — but not for Beach Boys Brian Wilson and Al Jardine, who are chagrined that the touring version of the group currently headed up by Mike Love will be headlining the campaign benefit.

 

“We have absolutely nothing to do with the Trump benefit today in Newport Beach. Zero,” Wilson and Jardine said to Variety through a spokesperson. “We didn’t even know about it and were very surprised to read about it in the Los Angeles Times.”

 

Thank you Brian!

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13 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

The Beach Boys are dead to me. God only knows what I’ll be without you, but don’t worry baby, I’ll figure it out. ✌🏻
 

 


Hey. Their records are still just as good as they were. 

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My mom in-law's sister inspired the lyrics to "Fun Fun Fun" because her dad took her car away for lying and taking the car to some place she wasn't supposed to. While she was complaining at the radio station the group overheard her and that's where the lyric "Til her daddy takes the T-Bird away" came from.

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  • Rdskns2000 changed the title to Presidential Election: 11/3/20- Joe Biden WILL BEAT Donald Trump. Yes he will, U-watch. Friday or Saturday, Joe will win!
  • Jumbo changed the title to Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

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