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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread


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The November Surprise

 

The combination of a deadly pandemic, a shaky election infrastructure, and a president—sickened by the coronavirus himself—sowing doubt about the integrity of the vote has led to fears of a plunge in turnout and widespread disenfranchisement. But what if those worries are overblown? There’s a chance the nation will wake up November 4 to at least one hopeful sign about the health of its democracy: a record number of citizens turning out to cast ballots.

 

There are ample reasons to think turnout might surge. Polling data and early-voting levels, along with turnout and registration numbers during the Trump era, all point to a surge at the polls unseen in decades, election experts say. “The intensity of the electorate is without recent precedent,” Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic political-data firm, told me. Moreover, the tens of millions of votes likely to be cast earlier than ever before could alleviate long lines at many polling places on Election Day and help the two parties focus their resources on turning out the hardest-to-reach voters. The pandemic that has threatened the election also prompted many states to adopt the most aggressive expansion of voting options in decades. And early attention to problems such as a shortage of poll watchers and tight ballot deadlines could help ensure that more votes are cast and counted.

 

The early-voting totals so far in the general election have only bolstered the case for a record turnout. Although early voting is not a reliable predictor of election outcomes, the sheer number of votes that have been cast by mail or in person more than a month before Election Day has astonished voting experts. More than 4.7 million Americans have already voted early or mailed back their ballots, and turnout in some states, including Wisconsin and Virginia, has exceeded 15 percent of the total votes cast in 2016. In Wisconsin’s Dane County, nearly one-third of the 2016 vote is already in, with four weeks still to go. Many of these people are surely regular voters simply taking advantage of an opportunity to vote early or by mail that they didn’t have before. But in states like North Carolina, nearly one-quarter of the votes cast so far come from people who did not vote in the state four years ago, according to an early-voting database that McDonald publishes using publicly-available records. The “sky-high interest” and early-voting levels have even prompted one major, bipartisan polling team to change how it models the electorate to reflect the likelihood of higher turnout. Democratic voters have been dramatically outpacing Republicans so far, a reflection of the partisan divide that has accompanied Trump’s attacks on voting by mail.

 

The turnout gains in 2018 were broad, encompassing not only a surge among Democrats that delivered them the House majority but also a surge among Trump’s base in red states that helped the GOP simultaneously expand its advantage in the Senate. A similar dynamic could play out this year, increasing the uncertainty about the outcome. Before 2016, McDonald said, Democrats were more likely to benefit from higher overall turnout because their base included constituencies that were historically least likely to vote: young people, voters of color, and lower-income white voters. But working-class white voters have shifted to the right, and though polls show Biden leading in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, it is Trump who could benefit most if turnout increases across the board in the Midwest and the Rust Belt.

 

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2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics


 

Voted Mail Ballots by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: CA, FL, IA, MD, NC, NJ, OK, PA, SD

Party Returned Ballots Freq. Distribution Requested Ballots Return Rate
Democrats 2,550,941 56.7 22,373,793 11.4
Republicans 1,057,186 23.5 13,100,368 8.1
Minor 29,715 0.7 631,747 4.7
No Party Affiliation 863,913 19.2 14,505,262 6.0
TOTAL 4,501,755 100.0 50,611,170

8.9

 

 

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I also forgot to mention, not sure if they have this in every state, but I signed up for the tracker where once you drop off your ballot, it tracks and gives you a notification every time it is scanned in by USPS and each stop it makes until it gets counted, and then also a final notification once it is officially counted. 

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I turned my ballot into the early mail voting ballot box and confirmed about 48 hrs later that it had already been counted. Didn't even want to mess with the mail. Place was about 15 min away. Worth the drive.  God I hope we come outta this thing with a NO DOUBTER, I shudder to think if its a nail biter. 

Edited by COWBOY-KILLA-
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3 hours ago, Springfield said:

Jeez am I the only one voting in person?

 

I'm voting in person, turning in my mail in ballot for an in person ballot. This election is too important. I will go sometime during early voting days.

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4 hours ago, Springfield said:

Jeez am I the only one voting in person?

 

Early voting in GA is in person - or at least that is one of the options. I am voting Thursday. @skinsmarydu voted yesterday. Based on the lines I have seen on news shows lots of people are voting in person.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, goskins10 said:

 

Early voting in GA is in person - or at least that is one of the options. I am voting Thursday. @skinsmarydu voted yesterday. Based on the lines I have seen on news shows lots of people are voting in person.  

 

 

Took me 2 hours to reach the machine.  Good discipline by everyone, with masks and social distancing in line.  It started to rain, so they cleared an extra hallway to hustle everyone inside...fabulous work by our poll workers.  I'm thinking of going back to help.

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17 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

This x1000.

 

I always said I would never vote against a candidate, only for a candidate.  Shoulda known to never say never.

 

There isn’t a whole lot I agree with on the Dem platform.  But “not looking like a ****ing joke on the world stage” is one policy position I can get behind.  Once I retire, I want to get more involved in supporting actual conservative policies that I believe in while still condemning the current **** show that is the GOP.  Try rounding up the Never-Trumpers into something respectable.

I think we need to redefine the terms "conservative" and "liberal" (or at least "republican" and "democract"), it doesn't really mean anything anymore about how you feel politcally. I have a lot of friends who identify as republican, but hate Trump and all of his policies. They still believe in smaller government and cutting taxes, etc, but they don't identify or vote with the current GOP. So many of them are now voting for moderate dems, because moderate republicans don't exist anymore. Should be interesting to see where the GOP will be in about 15-20 years...

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

Early voting in GA is in person - or at least that is one of the options. I am voting Thursday. @skinsmarydu voted yesterday. Based on the lines I have seen on news shows lots of people are voting in person.  

 

 

I voted yesterday, only a few people there, but a noticed a steady stream of people coming in to vote. There really wasn't any line to speak of, however.

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I have not seen this posted for a while - So this is a good time to thank @visionary for their tireless efforts to bring us relevant tweets and information. Just spending that much time in that cesspool called twitter is extraordinary. But to be kind enough to sift through the garbage to find and then post the relevant posts for others to see - including us mostly twitter adverse - is a very nice thing to do. I am sure sure I speak for others when I say your work is greatly appreciated.   I just need to find a better answer to "Where do you get your information?" Because when I tell them Visionary they seem very confused....   🙂  

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14 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

My apologies of this has been posted - but if so, it's good enoguh to see twice: 

 

 

 

 

lmao There are butt hurt Trump people responding to this tweet who are screaming about this being media manipulation that needs to be taken down.   :ols:

 

tenor.gif

Edited by mistertim
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19 hours ago, tshile said:

but trying to have a conversation about policies goes no where because ultimately they think the left views them as a villain (racist) for being white and conservative. So even when I get them to agree on things, there’s no movement because ultimately they’re not going to ‘help’ the group that vilified them (for no good reason in this case)
 


Focus less on the ‘other side’ and what someone on the extremes has said. Instead, have your friends look around and see what company they now keep in the GOP. Are the likes of Joe Biden, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner less acceptable to them than Trump? And Kamala Harris, the former District Attorney for our largest state, who is dismissed by the Left as a ‘cop’? Biden & company are the people who represent what the Dem party is in power, not what some self-appointed blogger or podcaster thinks.
 

There is a spectrum of political views much like a bell curve or ‘normal distribution. With Trump and the GOP the bell curve on the right of the median is now skewed well to the right. If your friends now find themselves relatively on the far right of the center of the bell curve, a reluctance to move back toward the center should not be because folks on the very far left have policies they don’t like. No one is asking them to join the communist party. Biden is a centrist in most ways and a pragmatist. The Dems did not choose Bernie or Warren who are more on the left of the spectrum.

 

Edited by Corcaigh
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  • Rdskns2000 changed the title to Presidential Election: 11/3/20- Joe Biden WILL BEAT Donald Trump. Yes he will, U-watch. Friday or Saturday, Joe will win!
  • Jumbo changed the title to Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

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