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Presidential Election: 11/3/20- Joe Biden vs Donald Trump


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I don't think Pete going after Amy was that bad of a deal honestly. Yea he looked bad and he was a jerk about it. I bet if he wasn't right next to her smiling in her face it wouldn't have been half as bad. He should feel bad, but thats far from disqualifying imo. 

 

Warren should be arrested for what she did with bloomboy though. He doesn't belong on stage and she let everyone including him know it. I dont mind the lecturing teacher deal. I think we as a country need someone to tell us to get our **** straight anyway. I wish she could win it, honestly. 

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Nevada’s system is same as Iowa’s I think.

 

3 sets of votes. First preference. Then 2nd preference if your candidate does not met threshold. Finally, delegate allocation.

 

It apparently works the same way Iowa did.  If that’s the case; how can they have early voting? 
 

Even though Bernie should win, still should be another mess. I don’t expect much results until Sunday or later.

1 hour ago, Springfield said:

I thought Buttigueg did incredibly well.  If you don’t want Bernie then I think this is the horse you should hitch your wagon to.

 

Only one problem. He has little or no minority support; so he won’t be going far.

 

If he had minority support then he could challenge Bernie. 
 

 

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In regards to the moderate candidates who suggest Medicare for all who want it and a choice for others, I wish somebody would mention to them how unrealistic that is.

 

Who in their right mind is going to want to have their taxes significantly increased to cover all those who want government funded healthcare and still pay through the nose for private insurance?

 

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22 minutes ago, redskinss said:

In regards to the moderate candidates who suggest Medicare for all who want it and a choice for others, I wish somebody would mention to them how unrealistic that is.

 

Who in their right mind is going to want to have their taxes significantly increased to cover all those who want government funded healthcare and still pay through the nose for private insurance?

 

 

The people who opt for medicare before 65 will have to pay their premiums for medicare.  Proponents of the plan are saying that when medicare covers older population for about the same money per person as private insurance uses to cover those below 65, the younger people in medicare will be cheaper to cover compared to private insurance due to inherent advantage medicare has in price negotiation, administrative overhead, and non-profit nature of the program.  The results of medicare spending on 65 and above vs private insurance spending on 65 and below lends support to that.  Then presumably, individuals will likely obtain supplemental medicare insurance as older people do now.

 

By passing on the savings to the individuals who opt to sign up for medicare, they will likely pay lower premiums than they currently pay to private insurance, even after supplemental plan is factored in.  It's a different version of the public option plan, except instead of building a program from the ground up, they just piggyback on to an existing program.

Edited by bearrock
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it seems my take on biden was notably less positive than most of the punditry on broadcast/cable news

 

of course, i think most of the actual punditry (not the reporting) offered on msnbc and cnn is just bad in general, and often worse than useless as it becomes an added, if apparently inevitable, problem

 

that was the biggest diff in my own perceptions from  most of the general  media reactions i'm seeing

 

 

the other thing of note to me in the bigger picture---the hand-wringing and angst of the dems and conservatives who hate trump more than they hate the left right now is completely understandable....and this time around the dem process is messier cuz of the size of the candidate pool from day one and new things like a bloomberg factor and the news cycle backdrop/continuous shenanigans of the current admin...lot of raised stakes pressures...

 

 

i remind myself of the goper town halls etc back in 2016 up to the gop convention....do you remember what a circus those events were? do you remember the subterranean level of performance that large group of big name goper candidates offered? for all the bad i saw last night, it pales to the goper events then...and they, led by the worst of them, won the election

 

 

while on one hand it seems like time is getting short to settle this stuff out and prepare for the major battle, this is still a slog until the convention has its run....breathing is a good thing, meditating even better :D

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3 hours ago, Llevron said:

I don't think Pete going after Amy was that bad of a deal honestly. Yea he looked bad and he was a jerk about it. I bet if he wasn't right next to her smiling in her face it wouldn't have been half as bad. He should feel bad, but thats far from disqualifying imo. 

 

 

 

 

I actually thought he made HER look bad. She looked "unhinged" to me during those exchanges.

 

Maybe it's just me but I didn't hear her propose any plans of action last night. She whined, she begged, and I think I saw her get teary-eyed a couple times. I haven't been able to take her seriously at all throughout this entire process. 

Edited by Chachie
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1 hour ago, redskinss said:

In regards to the moderate candidates who suggest Medicare for all who want it and a choice for others, I wish somebody would mention to them how unrealistic that is.

 

Who in their right mind is going to want to have their taxes significantly increased to cover all those who want government funded healthcare and still pay through the nose for private insurance?

 

 

Here are some facts from an actual Medicare user. Contrary to popular belief, Medicare isn't free. First, we pay into the system for at least 40 years. Second, only Medicare Part A hospital coverage is without extra cost, however there are hard limitations. Third, Medicare Part B doctor visits cost monthly and it's taken out of Social Security. My cost is $138/month. Then you can buy supplement insurance policies from private companies. There are various levels detailing the services covered. I have the best, Plan F, which covers the most because of my stroke. I pay $200/month. Plan F is n not being offered anymore for enrollment because it's so cost effective. Those of us with it are grandfathered into it. When I go to the doctor, I don't pay a co-pay, no lab fees, procedures like colonoscopies are completely covered. I chose this plan because you never know what will happen and after years without insurance, it's nice to to know that I can get the care I need without extra cost.

 

The new Medicare Advantage plans are basically scams because you have out of pocket expenses, you have to wait for procedures, it's basically an HMO.  I read people online really unhappy with Medicare Advantage plans. Unfortunately, these plans are marketed to those older folks who don't get much Social Security, and the plans are cheaper on a monthly basis and they supposedly partially cover things like vision and dental. Remember, these coverages are partially covered and people still pay out of pocket. 

 

As far as Medicare for All, healthcare just isn't free and it's a for profit business model, one reason why it's so expensive. Nice scam to make money from people who need healthcare, which is all of us. We can thank Nixon for introducing huge profit margins into healthcare by the HMO act. 

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I know that Medicare is not free, but that its heavily taxpayer subsidized and that is why you're "best plan" at 200 a month is probably better than my plan at over a thousand a month.

Now I ask, why would I want to have my taxes increased to compensate for millions more Americans on Medicare and still pay the ridiculous premiums and copays that I do. 

Wouldn't I be better off paying the 200 dollars a month and pocketing the rest?

 

I ask because I admit I'm no expert on the matter. 

Just seems like people like me would be paying more in taxes with no benefits unless we switched to Medicare and in that scenario how many would keep their private insurance. 

Edited by redskinss
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38 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I know that Medicare is not free, but that its heavily taxpayer subsidized and that is why you're "best plan" at 200 a month is probably better than my plan at over a thousand a month.

Now I ask, why would I want to have my taxes increased to compensate for millions more Americans on Medicare and still pay the ridiculous premiums and copays that I do. 

Wouldn't I be better off paying the 200 dollars a month and pocketing the rest?

 

I ask because I admit I'm no expert on the matter. 

Just seems like people like me would be paying more in taxes with no benefits unless we switched to Medicare and in that scenario how many would keep their private insurance. 

 

You forgot about the part that I already paid into Medicare for over forty years, more like fifty years. So paid for Medicare Part A in advance, which we all who work do.  I also now pay $138/month for Part B.  I pay $138 + $200+ $15 Part D prescription plan per month.  After Parts A and B, anything else is extra. 

 

I don't know how Medicare for All premiums work for people presently working. It most likely doesn't factor in 40-50 years of the part of FICA destined for Medicare program.  So premiums would still cost. I hope it's not tied to employers buying policies, I want to see that gone so people aren't tied to an employer deciding what you get. I also want to see profit gone from the healthcare industry. That alone will save a lot of money. Why should people support CEOs who make millions presiding over an industry devoted to parting the public from their money for very little coverage? 

 

Edited to add:  Taking the profit out of healthcare will also make Medicare and Medicaid dollars go farther. This alone eliminates the obsessive need for Republicans to cut the social safety nets.

Edited by LadySkinsFan
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WISCONSIN

Among registered voters in Wisconsin, President Trump leads the Democratic candidates by between 7 and 11 percentage points in head to head election matchups:

 

  • Trump tops Senator Amy Klobuchar 50 - 39 percent;
  • Trump leads Senator Elizabeth Warren 51 - 41 percent;
  • Trump beats former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg 49 - 41 percent;
  • Trump tops former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 49 - 41 percent;
  • Trump defeats Senator Bernie Sanders 50 - 43 percent;
  • Trump is ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden 49 - 42 percent.

 

PENNSYLVANIA

In Pennsylvania, the picture is nearly reversed. Among registered voters in Pennsylvania, President Trump trails Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg by 6 to 8 percentage points in head to head election matchups, while Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren are in tight races with the president:

 

  • Biden is ahead of Trump 50 - 42 percent;
  • Klobuchar leads Trump 49 - 42 percent;
  • Bloomberg leads Trump 48 - 42 percent;
  • Sanders has 48 percent and Trump gets 44 percent;
  • Buttigieg receives 47 percent and Trump has 43 percent;
  • Warren gets 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent.

 

MICHIGAN

Among registered voters in Michigan, the Democratic candidates range from narrowly ahead to essentially tied with President Trump in head to head election matchups:

 

  • Sanders narrowly tops Trump 48 - 43 percent;
  • Bloomberg has a slight lead over Trump 47 - 42 percent;
  • Biden has 47 percent and Trump gets 43 percent;
  • Warren gets 45 percent, while Trump receives 43 percent;
  • Buttigieg gets 45 percent and Trump has 44 percent;
  • Klobuchar receives 45 percent to Trump's 44 perce

https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3656

 

Wisconsin might be a lost cause.

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We have a different thread to discuss healthcare options.

 

I stayed up late to watch the debate last night and the town hall the night before.  And will stay up for tonights town hall.  I want to see as much as I can.  But here is my takes FWIW:

 

Biden:  He seemed like he wanted to stay out of the fray several times.  He just looked and smiled through several of the shouting matches like he was happy to see them going after each other figuring it would help him out long term.  I don't thing HE made much affect to hurt or help himself last night.  But the performance of others I think will help him get more voters i.e. the Bloomberg/Kloubachar supporters.  I don't think he would be the best nominee but I'd definetly vote for him.

 

Warren:  On a personal level, I didn't like seeing her trying to be an attack dog.  One of the things I liked about her is she was usually above that.  Now it was funny to watch but as a candidate, she hurt herself there with me.  Luckily, she picked up in other areas so she was overall a net gain in my book.  I think I will move her back to just above the "I couldn't vot for" line.  She hovers right around that line for me but if the election were today, I'd pull the lever for her.

 

Buttijug Buttigude Buttiguge Pete:  He went into the debate as my favorite and just increased his standing last night.  He controlled his emotions, made well spoken retorts, included policy, etc.  How can you not love this man?  I do worry about his experience but Obama didn't exactly have a ton of government experience and he did fine.  At least Pete has Executive experience.  And he would absolutely crush Trump in any debates.  I actually think Trump will refuse to debate if Pete is nominated.

 

Bloomberg:  That **** was amazing to watch.  He got destroyed.  He needs to drop out and just continue to run anti-Trump ads (Steyer too).  But in the rare chance he is the nominee, I'd vote for him.  But I'd shake my head at how stupid this is.

 

Amy:  I so want to like her but she just can't handle the big stage.  She needs to drop out and try to go help some other down ballot races.  She won't make it to be the nominee but if she did, I'd vote for her.  I at least don't mind her policy-wise.

 

Sanders:  Continues to cement himself in the I couldn't vote for category.  Don't like his policies, don't like how he just repeats the same points over and over without much details, don't like his supporters and don't like how his campaign plays fast and loose with facts and he doesn't fix it.  I think him more than anyone would drive the country further apart past our breaking point.  He would be a true test though of if the country is ready to go further Left or if he can't garner enough moderate-Dems and independants showing the country is still in the middle.

 

 

EDIT:  Oh and I really wish they would focus more on battleground state polling.  I don't give a **** about national polling, that's not how our election system works.  Sadly the election will only really matter in that handful of states.

Edited by TheGreatBuzz
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Anybody who is surprised by Elizabeth Warren's knife fighting needs to go and watch some videos of her taking on bankers at senate hearings.

 

I ****ing love that part of her. She's got a big heart, but she works her ass off to know things on an expert level and uses that to pull your guts out from your ass.

 

If anyone is going to hold people accountable and clean up corruption it's her.

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2 hours ago, Chachie said:

 

 

I actually thought he made HER look bad. She looked "unhinged" to me during those exchanges.

 

Maybe it's just me but I didn't hear her propose any plans of action last night. She whined, she begged, and I think I saw her get teary-eyed a couple times. I haven't been able to take her seriously at all throughout this entire process. 

 

Oh I dont disagree with that at all. Matter of fact I told the fiance last night that she looked pissed. Cant let something like that get under your skin that way cause Trump is going to do the exact same thing especially if he knows its a weakness. And he will really be a dick about it. 

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Time to look at the delegate race:


https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020

 

Pete Buttigieg: 23

Bernie Sanders: 21

Elizabeth Warren: 8

Amy Klobuchar: 7

Joe Biden: 6

Michael Bloomberg: 0

 

In order to be awarded delegates, you must win 15% of the vote.  That's why Bernie Sanders is the heavy favorite to be the delegate leader because he is a lock to win 15% in every single state.  Because his opposition is spread among the other 5  candidates, it's going to be hard to see them all get 15%.

 

From the website I listened above, here's the delegate totals:

 

2/22: Nevada Caucus - (36)

2/29: South Carolinna - (54)

 

3/3- Super Tuesday

Alabama (52)

American Samoa (6)

Arkansas (31)

California (415)

Colorado (67)

Democrats Abroad* (13)

Maine (24)

Massachusetts (91)

Minnesota (75)

North Carolina (110)

Oklahoma (37)

Tennessee (64)

Texas (228)

Utah (29)

Vermont (16)

Virginia (99)

 

3/10 

Idaho (20)

Michigan (125)

Mississippi (36)

Missouri (68)

North Dakota (14)

Washington (89)

 

3/17 

Arizona (67)

Florida (219)

Illinois (155)

Northern Marianas (6)

Ohio (136)

 

3/24- Georgia - (105)

3/29- Puerto Rico - (51)

 

4/4

Alaska (15)

Hawaii (24)

Louisiana (54)

Wyoming (14)

 

4/7 - Wisconsin - (84)

 

4/28

Connecticut (60)

Delaware (21) 

Maryland (96)

New York (274)

Pennsylvania (186)

Rhode Island (26)

 

5/2

Guam (7)
Kansas (39)

 

5/5- Indiana - (82)

 

5/12 

Nebraska (29)

West Virginia (28)

 

5/19

Kentucky (54)

Oregon (61)

 

6/2

District of Columbia (20)

Montana (19)

New Jersey (126)

New Mexico (34)

South Dakota (16)

 

6/9- Virgin Islands - (7)

 

After Super Tuesday, 38% of the votes will have been cast.  To even have a shot against Bernie, you need to get 15% and you hope no other candidates get 15%.  California(415) & Texas(228) are huge.  This is the lion's share of delegates that day. You don't want Bernie to get them all. Those 2 states gives Bernie a huge lead if he's the only one who gets delegates from those states.  If you haven't finished in the Top 3 after Super Tuesday, you need to drop out.

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It's called an outlier, people. 

 

Pennsylvania and Michigan are a bit bluer than Wisconsin, but there is simply no universe where Trump could lose to a Democrat by 7 in Pennsylvania and beat that same Dem in Wisconsin by 11. That's pure nonsense.

 

Just taking a quick look at RCP's data, they had 9 Wisconsin matchups before today, going back to last spring,  pitting Trump against Biden, Sanders and Warren.

 

Against Warren, the average outcome was a tie, Trump's best performance was +5. Today's poll has him at +10

Against Sanders, the average outcome was Sanders +1.8. Trump's best performance was +3. Today's has him +7.

Against Biden, the average was Biden +4.6. Trump's best was +3. Today he's up 7.

 

None of the data from the other states suggests any kind of massive move towards Trump. So, again, this is what is called an outlier.

Edited by Rufus T Firefly
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  • Rdskns2000 changed the title to Presidential Election: 11/3/20- Joe Biden vs Donald Trump

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