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CNBC: Ethereum hits another record high, marking a more than 2,800% rally this year


No Excuses

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20 minutes ago, Springfield said:

I kinda feel like crypto’s are the millenials “intro to investing” course.  

 

I hope people aren't using crypto as investment, or as their only investment.

 

A co-worker and I are having fun with crypto but we treat it as fun money that we are willing to lose. But you still need to research what you are putting money into.

 

I've wasted more money on crap worth less over the years. I mean, how many times have I bought Terminator 2 and The Fifth Element on the newest format? And I haven't gotten the sweet looking 4K black cases yet!

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1 hour ago, Springfield said:

Nah, that’s PeterMP or tyou techboy.  I forget who, but one is heavy in low risk mutual funds.

 

It's usually me that shares that the optimal approach to investing is long term passive investing in broadly diversified low cost instruments, which are almost always index funds, yes. The research is very overwhelmingly one sided and very clear.

 

I haven't commented much here because nobody's actually asked about investing.

 

For the record, though, buying into Bitcoin and the like is not investing. It's rank speculation and a classic "greater fool" play where one buys in and hopes that a greater fool comes along later to pay more. Even the proponents and experts can't explain what underlies the pricing.

 

At least tulips could beautify a room.

 

And yes, it actually scares me that this is many people's first exposure to "investing". I'm not sure whether doing well or bombing out would be worse though, in terms of what is learned long term.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, techboy said:

 

It's usually me that shares that the optimal approach to investing is long term passive investing in broadly diversified low cost instruments, which are almost always index funds, yes. The research is very overwhelmingly one sided and very clear.

 

I haven't commented much here because nobody's actually asked about investing.

 

For the record, though, buying into Bitcoin and the like is not investing. It's rank speculation and a classic "greater fool" play where one buys in and hopes that a greater fool comes along later to pay more. Even the proponents and experts can't explain what underlies the pricing.

 

At least tulips could beautify a room.

 

And yes, it actually scares me that this is many people's first exposure to "investing". I'm not sure whether doing well or bombing out would be worse though, in terms of what is learned long term.

 

 

 

You may be able answer some questions on a mutual fund I'm looking at - HJPSX (Hennesssy Japan Small Cap Fund Investor Class). I have various common stock on TD Ameritrade and was digging around for funds to invest in and came across this one. Its five-star, below average risk, high reward.

 

Its returns at one-year are high, 44.95%, but drops to 21% at 3 years, and 11% at 5 years. It's heavy into Japanese industrials and technology, with some investment in consumer cyclical and basic materials.

 

I don't have my heart set on it in any way but it is intriguing. How would you approach a fund with these returns? Invest the minimum $2.5k or maybe $10k? For how long? Three years and jump out?

 

 

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My own opinion, is that past performance does not guarantee future success.  Those numbers look great.  You’d probably find a lot of stocks that are up 40% over the last year though, so don’t automatically assume that you’re making 40% on your investment from today.

 

Aside from that I know nothing at all about that specific fund.

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50 minutes ago, Metalhead said:

 

You may be able answer some questions on a mutual fund I'm looking at - HJPSX (Hennesssy Japan Small Cap Fund Investor Class).

 

Okay, but remember, you asked.

 

That is the kind of fund that would make me run away screaming.

 

As I noted earlier, the academic research is overwhelming that the optimal approach is to make a long term investment in a broadly diversified, very low cost, passively managed portfolio. Usually, that means index funds.

 

My personal portfolio, for example, has thousands of stocks from both US and global companies, and it has a blended expense ratio of around .1%, 

 

The fund you bring up has an expense ratio of 1.85%, and is narrowly concentrated into a very few stocks in a very small part of the market.

 

Adding a bit more, the research shows that the two biggest drivers of returns are allocation and cost. That 1.85% will KILL you.

 

The research also shows that it is virtually impossible for an active manager to beat the market over long periods, and that it is virtually impossible to predict the ones that will.

 

Those returns are impressive, but they are also meaningless, because you can't eat past returns and the best predictor going forward is cost.

 

Survivor bias guarantees that most if not all of the funds that you look at now will have good returns, because the ones that slip shut down when people don't like their returns, so those returns might as well be random. If you have a stadium full of people flipping coins 10 times, someone is going to get 10 heads in a row. That doesn't mean he is skilled at flipping heads.

 

If you want a funny (but still pretty good) take on the dangers of costs:

 

 

Start at about 8:00 if you want to skip to the parts about fees and active management.

 

I'll stop there to avoid derailing the thread, but if you want to read more I posted about it on the first page of this thread:

 

 

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13 minutes ago, techboy said:

 

Okay, but remember, you asked.

 

 

Thanks for the response! I have much to consider and I need to educate myself on expense ratio. And thanks for the John Oliver link, looking foward to watching it.

 

And now to get this thread back on the rails ;) Ripple is dancing around 2.27 on Binance.

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3 hours ago, Metalhead said:

 

Thanks for the response! I have much to consider and I need to educate myself on expense ratio. And thanks for the John Oliver link, looking foward to watching it.

 

And now to get this thread back on the rails ;) Ripple is dancing around 2.27 on Binance.

 

$2.57. I haven’t been able to buy cause coinbase is slow to transfer now. I get the feeling it’s going to go through the roof. 

Hope to get in ASAP. 

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Stocks have been on a tear. It's not luck, you should have made money :)

 

6 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

$2.57. I haven’t been able to buy cause coinbase is slow to transfer now. I get the feeling it’s going to go through the roof. 

Hope to get in ASAP. 

I wanted to buy ripple 3 weeks ago but let my buddies convince me to get in on ltc. Yup.

 

Which is fine, I'm just doing it for fun.

 

Coinbase is all around terrible.

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44 minutes ago, tshile said:

Stocks have been on a tear. It's not luck, you should have made money :)

 

I wanted to buy ripple 3 weeks ago but let my buddies convince me to get in on ltc. Yup.

 

Which is fine, I'm just doing it for fun.

 

Coinbase is all around terrible.

I am doing this for fun. All those years I didn’t play the lottery is all I’m spending.  Totally content if I lose it all and I have no interest in spending more.

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7 minutes ago, Hersh said:

I am doing this for fun. All those years I didn’t play the lottery is all I’m spending.  Totally content if I lose it all and I have no interest in spending more.

Yeah I put the mount in that i'd pull from the atm for a night at the casino.

 

Doesn't make me any less bitter to watch ripple and ltc :(

 

 

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31 minutes ago, tshile said:

Yeah I put the mount in that i'd pull from the atm for a night at the casino.

 

Doesn't make me any less bitter to watch ripple and ltc :(

 

 

Not too late to get into ripple using your ltc. I'm going to just let it ride for a long time so when it gets to $1,000 I'll order my Tesla X :)

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On 12/30/2017 at 9:16 AM, No Excuses said:

In total I think I have around $2000 spread around a few cryptos. 

 

I’m either going to lose it all which is no big deal or it will pay down my student loans. Lol

 Same amount and approach for me too. My student loans and car are paid off so it's just the mortgage hanging around. I only put in money I was willing to gamble and lose.

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On 12/29/2017 at 5:18 PM, Metalhead said:

 I got into Ripple when it was at $0.73, and dumped in a little more fun money since. I'm on Binance, and also have cheddar in XVG, CND, and TRX. When it spiked to $2.12 I was quite happy.

 

with hundreds (thousands?) of coins to choose from, what led you to pick XVG, CND and TRX specifically?

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