Hersh Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: Now where have I heard that before... We are living with the reality of Trump, not the hypothetical presidency. I think it's a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: It is noticible. Can I still hate polling because that's big reason we got Trump anyway? I pray to God we aren't getting lulled into reassurance again. It's possible, but the problem isn't really polling, it's distribution of votes. The electoral college is sufficiently out of whack with the popular vote often enough that our system of electing Presidents is really only democratic by accident. 2016 polls were actually pretty good re: raw vote %s. I think they were off by about 2% nationally on average, which is within the margin of error. The problem is popular vote doesn't mean anything so even though polls were accurate and HRC won the popular vote, she lost the electoral college by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hersh said: We are living with the reality of Trump, not the hypothetical presidency. I think it's a huge difference. I want to agree with you, I'm just going to continue to preach "vote to make sure". We still have electoral college to worry about. 3 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said: It's possible, but the problem isn't really polling, it's distribution of votes. The electoral college is sufficiently out of whack with the popular vote often enough that our system of electing Presidents is really only democratic by accident. 2016 polls were actually pretty good re: raw vote %s. I think they were off by about 2% nationally on average, which is within the margin of error. The problem is popular vote doesn't mean anything so even though polls were accurate and HRC won the popular vote, she lost the electoral college by a lot. Maybey memory deceives me, but that wasn't expected to be a close Hillary win it was supposed to be a blow out. It wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CurseReversed said: Half the country supports Potus, 150 million people. Are we all Horrible people? How could this be possible? No, not all Trump supporters (semantics but approve and support are not one and the same) are horrible people. Look, I don't give a **** about politics. I don't care who likes donkeys or whose favorite color is red. Somebody asked me the other day, "What are your political views?" and I'm like, "what the **** does that mean? Give me an issue and I'll tell you what I think." I'm not going to say "well I'm a conservative" or "well I'm a democrat" and magically I happen to agree with whatever my political party tells me to think 100% of the time. That's for people who can't think for themselves. No, not everyone who approves of Trump is a horrible person. Some of them just aren't paying attention. A lot of them are easily misled (the nicest way I could describe it). I'm curious, have you felt the need to lecture any right leaning folk about how half of the country is not their enemy and how 150 million people who disagree with them can't all be idiots (both true statements by the way) at any point in the last decade as the GOP devolved into a party based entirely on hate and fear? Just in like, the last month I remember Donald Trump calling democrats anti-semitic, the party of crime, an entire party of radicals, un-American, and treasonous. Other bad guys according to Trump -John McCain -Robert Mueller -People protesting racial injustice -Any media that doesn't pretend he isn't a lying sack of **** -Immigrants and Muslims Trump's good guys -Russian Autocrats who attack America -Torturous North Korean dictators -Syrian crown princes who murder US Journalists -Nazis -Media who does pretend that he isn't a lying sack of **** (even if they also say that the parents of the 1st graders who were murdered in Sandy Hook are actors and liars) -Racist sherrifs -Conspirators against the United States who don't flip on him More of the world according to Trump What Obama got right: NOTHING What he's gotten right: EVERYTHING What he's responsible for: EVERYTHING GOOD Not responsible for: ANYTHING BAD Things that are real: ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT HIM (also, anything negative about Hillary, Obama etc) Things that are fake: ANYTHING NEGATIVE ABOUT HIM (vice versa of above) Lastly, let's take a look at all the **** that's been thrown out there about Trump... from Russia to the porn star to him not being a self-made man as he claims, to his non-profit stealing charitable donations and funneling them to his businesses and on and on and on... Let's eliminate stuff that is still up in the air. **** that has stuck: I mean, all of it. **** that has been proven false: I can't think of anything. Literally every bit of "Fake News" that has been confirmed one way or another has turned out to be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skintime Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 3 hours ago, clietas said: So basically you made up the 52% support Trump number? Then refute actual gallup n five thirty eights polls because why exactly? Oh because you disagree with the source. Feelings>Facts? LOL, his gut. He wants to be like his master. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: Other bad guys according to Trump -John McCain -Robert Mueller -People protesting racial injustice -Any media that doesn't pretend he isn't a lying sack of **** -Immigrants and Muslims -NATO -The FBI -Every single US intelligence agency -Five different FISA judges. -Fact checkers. (Or facts, for that matter). -Prosecutors who give people reduced sentences if they flip on bigger fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsburySkinsFan Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just because this is where we were discussing this here RE Trump's "derr derr planes r 2 hard to fai derr derr" tweet. So Boeing does an analysis of their 737's and what do they find? Pilot error? Pilots sleeping at the wheel as suggested by some here? or... It was also reported that some pilots were not even aware that these flight controls were even on these planes which would probably explain why they didn't just turn them off. So there goes that arm chair quarterbacking blame theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Larry said: -NATO -The FBI -Every single US intelligence agency -Five different FISA judges. -Fact checkers. (Or facts, for that matter). -Prosecutors who give people reduced sentences if they flip on bigger fish. Quote Other bad guys according to Trump -John McCain -Robert Mueller -People protesting racial injustice -Any media that doesn't pretend he isn't a lying sack of **** -Immigrants and Muslims Scientists Policemen Educators Generals (Yeah, he's turning on a bunch of them) Puppies (Hey, he said he'd never bring a dog into the White House. So yes, the President of the United States even has taken an anti-puppy platform) Women (I think this is fair and don't think many women would disagree) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 34 minutes ago, AsburySkinsFan said: It was also reported that some pilots were not even aware that these flight controls were even on these planes which would probably explain why they didn't just turn them off. So there goes that arm chair quarterbacking blame theory. Just an amateur, here. But that sounds like some seriously deficient training, to me. I really hope that's untrue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Man, I really need to step away from this conversation this morning before I get off on a rant about just how much bull**** is floating around vis-a-vis Trumpies. Giving them the benefit of the doubt or making some excuses for that infected demographic only encourages them........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedskinsFan44 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 5 hours ago, Renegade7 said: Maybey memory deceives me, but that wasn't expected to be a close Hillary win it was supposed to be a blow out. It wasn't. Your memory deceives you. 538 had her winning by 3.6%. Be sure to clock the "analysis" tab. They did have the states wrong.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis Realclearpolitics had her +3.2. She lost getting +2.1.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedskinsFan44 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 George Conway has a point (thread): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llevron Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Yall couldn't pretend to be a better example of why this country is going to fall apart than Curse if you tried. Dude presented numbers like facts, got called out on them being wrong, and then was like "Well the numbers dont matter hur hur hur I must have touched a nerve hur hur hur I respectfully disagree hur hur hurrrr ". We got millions of people willing to use this logic not only to hurt you, but justify hurting themselves cause they are too stupid to see whats happening. There is literally no hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Larry said: Just an amateur, here. But that sounds like some seriously deficient training, to me. I really hope that's untrue. You would be shocked at who other countries allow to fly commercial planes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purbeast Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 7 hours ago, CurseReversed said: Half the country supports Potus, 150 million people. Are we all Horrible people? How could this be possible? I dont expect to change anyones minds here. Dont worry. I would feel bad if I did not give it a last try though. Just FYI, a 52% approval rating does not mean half the country supports the POTUS. It means 52% of the people polled approve. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purbeast Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 43 minutes ago, Llevron said: Yall couldn't pretend to be a better example of why this country is going to fall apart than Curse if you tried. Dude presented numbers like facts, got called out on them being wrong, and then was like "Well the numbers dont matter hur hur hur I must have touched a nerve hur hur hur I respectfully disagree hur hur hurrrr ". We got millions of people willing to use this logic not only to hurt you, but justify hurting themselves cause they are too stupid to see whats happening. There is literally no hope. When the most powerful person in the world is saying that facts don't matter and these people are blindly following him, it's not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6 hours ago, Renegade7 said: Maybey memory deceives me, but that wasn't expected to be a close Hillary win it was supposed to be a blow out. It wasn't. Nah, she was leading polls sufficiently enough to suggest she'd win the popular vote by some margin, but that was it. Lots of places took the fact that she was extremely likely to win the popular vote and pushed the analysis much farther than the raw numbers suggested. Like I want to say it was NYT, but I might be wrong, that had her chances of winning at something like 96%. And just based on the raw data that wasn't really reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinss Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Slightly off topic but how do they account for population density and political strongholds in polls? For example, if they polled a thousand people in Massachusetts vs a thousand people in Mississippi their going to far different results. And if they spread that out across the entire nation by say, polling 100 in each region how do they then account for the fact the differences in population density? Obviously you can't poll a thousand people in Los Angeles and then a thousand people in north Dakota, average the results and expect the poll to be accurate. I assume they poll an appropriate number of people based on each regions population but I always wonder how in the day and age of leave me alone and don't ever call here again that they can get accurate results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Llevron said: Yall couldn't pretend to be a better example of why this country is going to fall apart than Curse if you tried. Dude presented numbers like facts, got called out on them being wrong, and then was like "Well the numbers dont matter hur hur hur I must have touched a nerve hur hur hur I respectfully disagree hur hur hurrrr ". We got millions of people willing to use this logic not only to hurt you, but justify hurting themselves cause they are too stupid to see whats happening. There is literally no hope. Disagree Llev, I genuinely believe there IS hope, just not for us all. Gonna be some Darwinian thinning of the herd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llevron Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 minute ago, LD0506 said: Disagree Llev, I genuinely believe there IS hope, just not for us all. Gonna be some Darwinian thinning of the herd I dont think there is any hope for our democracy as currently constructed. Too many lies, too much reliance on power, too much money. And if you expect any of the people who have any of those thing to give it up I just dont see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, redskinss said: Slightly off topic but how do they account for population density and political strongholds in polls? weighted polls are adjusted according to known voting patterns and demographics The reason Gallup and Rasmussen vary is the use of different weighing formulas your basic online poll does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, purbeast said: Just FYI, a 52% approval rating does not mean half the country supports the POTUS. It means 52% of the people polled approve. Carry on. On the other hand, perhaps if 52% of the people approve of a President who openly courts White Nationalists, racists, foreign dictators while dismantling our safety net, education, environmental protections, etc... Well, maybe 52% of the country is made up of horrible people. Mind you, I have never seen approval number that high and most often have seen approval numbers sub-forty. So, maybe only slightly less than half of America is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llevron Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Llevron said: I dont think there is any hope for our democracy as currently constructed. Too many lies, too much reliance on power, too much money. And if you expect any of the people who have any of those thing to give it up I just dont see it happening. And I dont just think Republicans are the problem. Right now yea, but there is nothing stopping a Dem from doing the same thing other than "morality". And I dont trust that ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurseReversed Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 <mod edit rule violation> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CurseReversed said: <mod edit> If your facts are wrong how do you expect the conversation to continue? The sky is plaid therefore the platypus is the largest reptile on Earth. --- Umm... the sky is not plaid and I'm pretty sure the platypus is a mammal. And it isn't close to the biggest mammal on Earth. Okay, maybe I'm not exactly right about the sky and the size of the reptile, but my point still stands! Why aren't we discussing the important nature of my point? --- Umm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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