Riggo#44 Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 year deal for a 37 year old? Hard pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Koda will end up closing. Get your popcorn ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popeman38 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Shawn Kelley should start the season as the closer. His advanced stats rank right up there with Chapman, Miller, and Jansen. Gloves for the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 David Schoenfield wrote a pretty solid article about the Adam Eaton deal.  His take: that we'll probably end up winning trade.  http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77004/odds-are-selling-the-farm-is-worth-the-risk  His contention is that top prospects who get traded by their organizations are usually more flawed than the baseball world realizes at the time, and that organizations often know they are selling high because their internal evaluations are better than the industry-wide evaluations.  I suspect Rizzo believed Giolitto's ceiling had been significantly lowered by his drop in velocity and that #3 prospect ranking hadn't accounted for that drop and was way too high.  And I suspect he believes Lopez is a future reliever.  Giolitto got an 80 (fastball), 70 (curve), 55 (change), 55 (control) grade which averaged out to a 65 overall which projected him to be a good #2 or #3 starter and a 4 WAR player. That 80 fastball grade is looking wrong though, as it was based on him throwing 98.  He's throwing 93 now and that means it's actually a 60, which brings his overall grade down to a 60.  However there is reason to believe that command grade was wrong too based on how he pitched last season and that it's not a plus tool.  If true, it'd bring his grade down to a 55.  Then Giolito's ceiling is as a #3 or #4 starter and 2.5 to 3 WAR player.  Above average, but not special.  Lopez's ceiling was never projected to be as high, he was a 55 overall player.  But that might be off given his control was graded as an average tool and it might not be.  I think there is a very real chance Lopez ends up in the Bullpen because of his lack of a third pitch and lack of control.  And if that's the case, then he'd go from being a #3 or #4 starter to a low end closer or a solid set up man, a 2 to 2.5 WAR player.  Again, a good and useful player, but not special.  On paper, we likely flipped 5.5 WARs for 6.  Seems pretty fair, and maybe slightly in our advantage.  Chicago is betting that Giolitto and Lopez will hit the high end of their projections (as a #2 and a #3 starter respectively), and do so in a window where the rest of their team might be good enough for them to contend.  I think that's a bad bet.  And I think Rizzo thinks so too and that's why he was willing to deal them.  And here's the thing, 6 WARs coming from two players << 6 WARs coming from one.  You get an extra spot in your line up or rotation to add value when you're getting all that extra value in one position.  That's why it makes sense to trade coins for paper.  And it's also true that pitchers, even starters, are almost never as valuable as equally high ranked everyday players.  So much harder for them to have 6+ WAR seasons.  Rizzo accomplished trading coins for paper and flipping pitching for a center fielder with this deal, and in this case his coins were prospects who I think were being overvalued based on outdated scouting.  And to top it off, Eaton has an uncommonly team friendly salary and team control situation for a 28 year old 6 WAR position player.  I'm confident Rizzo won the trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo#44 Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 ^^^^^^^^ That's a sound, well-reasoned, logical post. Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRobi21 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016  And earlier this week...   Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Good post steve, and I agree 100%. People overrate prospects way too much. The truth is the vast majority of them don't pan out, especially pitching prospects. I mean we weren't trading sure things like Trea Turner or Kris Bryant. Yet people cry "omg we traded two top 10 prospects!!!" like that means anything. And I don't care what other GMs think, most of them are idiots anyway. I mean we're talking about MLB where at one point Jim Bowden and Ruben Amaro jr. were employed, lets not act like all GMs are geniuses, most of them are morons too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo#44 Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 We'll sign him and Oriole fan will come here and tell us how awful he is, when 2-3 years ago they were praising him as Baseball Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRobi21 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Kinda crowded at catcher if we land Weiters.. Could be the catalyst for another trade coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Unless the plan is to play weiters at 1st base to relive Zimm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Wieters would be the best option of any we have now at catcher. Better than Norris both at and behind the plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Wieters would make sense. Catcher is our most obvious hole right now that isn't in the bullpen. Crowded? Yeah we've got bodies. Severino can spend more time in the minors. Lobaton is a great clubhouse guy and good backup C, but completely expendable at the same time. Norris is a huge question mark at the plate, isn't good defensively, and if you went into the season expecting him to start you'd be doing so just on sheer hope that he could improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingGibbs Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 19 hours ago, Warhead36 said: We'll sign him and Oriole fan will come here and tell us how awful he is, when 2-3 years ago they were praising him as Baseball Jesus. Wrong. Some of us have been saying for a couple of years now that he isn't worth what he and Boras think. The market has proven that. If you can get him on the cheap? It would be a good signing IMO. We just essentially replaced Weiters with another Weiters at a much cheaper rate. Know what I mean little brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimmySmith Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Wouldn't touch Wieters. Â He is about as overrated as they come when you factor in his injury history. Â Nats can't afford to have more perpetually dinged players than they already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo#44 Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 "Rampant speculation" is exactly that: Speculation. Nothing to see here. We need bullpen help before we need Weiters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Five years ago Wieters was a 4 WAR player. Â That's pretty good. Â But he hasn't come close to that level of value the last three years. Â My guess is that he's going to be too expensive to be worth it and that, if we signed him, it'd be out of desperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Blessed with any Nats goodies for Christmas this year? Â Honestly, up until this Christmas I only had a cap, but my wife's family poured it on this year and I ended up with all kinds of merch. The highlight was a Rendon jersey from my father in law, who I've always suspected hated my guts but this threw a wrench into that. Extremely thoughtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo#44 Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 Gave my wife a Turner jersey. Last Christmas was more Nats focused, as my wife got me an authentic blue, stars and stripes Harper jersey. But I did get a nice low-crown authentic blue road hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRobi21 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Hope those glutes hold up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.