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2016 National League East Division Champion: Washington Nationals Thread


Riggo#44

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David Schoenfield wrote a pretty solid article about the Adam Eaton deal.  His take: that we'll probably end up winning trade.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77004/odds-are-selling-the-farm-is-worth-the-risk

 

His contention is that top prospects who get traded by their organizations are usually more flawed than the baseball world realizes at the time, and that organizations often know they are selling high because their internal evaluations are better than the industry-wide evaluations.

 

I suspect Rizzo believed Giolitto's ceiling had been significantly lowered by his drop in velocity and that #3 prospect ranking hadn't accounted for that drop and was way too high.  And I suspect he believes Lopez is a future reliever.  Giolitto got an 80 (fastball), 70 (curve), 55 (change), 55 (control) grade which averaged out to a 65 overall which projected him to be a good #2 or #3 starter and a 4 WAR player.  That 80 fastball grade is looking wrong though, as it was based on him throwing 98.  He's throwing 93 now and that means it's actually a 60, which brings his overall grade down to a 60.  However there is reason to believe that command grade was wrong too based on how he pitched last season and that it's not a plus tool.  If true, it'd bring his grade down to a 55.  Then Giolito's ceiling is as a #3 or #4 starter and 2.5 to 3 WAR player.  Above average, but not special.

 

Lopez's ceiling was never projected to be as high, he was a 55 overall player.  But that might be off given his control was graded as an average tool and it might not be.  I think there is a very real chance Lopez ends up in the Bullpen because of his lack of a third pitch and lack of control.  And if that's the case, then he'd go from being a #3 or #4 starter to a low end closer or a solid set up man, a 2 to 2.5 WAR player.  Again, a good and useful player, but not special.

 

On paper, we likely flipped 5.5 WARs for 6.  Seems pretty fair, and maybe slightly in our advantage.  Chicago is betting that Giolitto and Lopez will hit the high end of their projections (as a #2 and a #3 starter respectively), and do so in a window where the rest of their team might be good enough for them to contend.  I think that's a bad bet.  And I think Rizzo thinks so too and that's why he was willing to deal them.

 

And here's the thing, 6 WARs coming from two players << 6 WARs coming from one.  You get an extra spot in your line up or rotation to add value when you're getting all that extra value in one position.  That's why it makes sense to trade coins for paper.  And it's also true that pitchers, even starters, are almost never as valuable as equally high ranked everyday players.  So much harder for them to have 6+ WAR seasons.  Rizzo accomplished trading coins for paper and flipping pitching for a center fielder with this deal, and in this case his coins were prospects who I think were being overvalued based on outdated scouting.  And to top it off, Eaton has an uncommonly team friendly salary and team control situation for a 28 year old 6 WAR position player.

 

I'm confident Rizzo won the trade.

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Good post steve, and I agree 100%. People overrate prospects way too much. The truth is the vast majority of them don't pan out, especially pitching prospects. I mean we weren't trading sure things like Trea Turner or Kris Bryant. Yet people cry "omg we traded two top 10 prospects!!!" like that means anything. And I don't care what other GMs think, most of them are idiots anyway. I mean we're talking about MLB where at one point Jim Bowden and Ruben Amaro jr. were employed, lets not act like all GMs are geniuses, most of them are morons too.

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Wieters would make sense. Catcher is our most obvious hole right now that isn't in the bullpen. Crowded? Yeah we've got

bodies. Severino can spend more time in the minors. Lobaton is a great clubhouse guy and good backup C, but completely expendable at the same time. Norris is a huge question mark at the plate, isn't good defensively, and if you went into the season expecting him to start you'd be doing so just on sheer hope that he could improve. 

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19 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

We'll sign him and Oriole fan will come here and tell us how awful he is, when 2-3 years ago they were praising him as Baseball Jesus.

Wrong. Some of us have been saying for a couple of years now that he isn't worth what he and Boras think. The market has proven that. If you can get him on the cheap? It would be a good signing IMO. We just essentially replaced Weiters with another Weiters at a much cheaper rate. Know what I mean little brother?

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Blessed with any Nats goodies for Christmas this year?

 

Honestly, up until this Christmas I only had a cap, but my wife's family poured it on this year and I ended up with all kinds of merch. The highlight was a Rendon jersey from my father in law, who I've always suspected hated my guts but this threw a wrench into that. Extremely thoughtful.

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