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CNN.com: Russian warplane downed; Turkey says aircraft violated airspace near border


PeterMP

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This seems like it might deserve its own thread.

 

Long and short of it is that Turkey appears to be at least claiming responsibility for shooting down a Russian military jet.

 

They said it violated Turkish airspace.  The Turks have been complaining about this for a while.

 

There is a larger geopolitical issue here where the Russians have been flying missions through or near Turkish air space. to Syria to support Assad, while the Turks don't support Assad.

 

The Russians have been denying violating Turkish air space.

 

This is where things could get serious.  It is hard for me to believe the Turks did this without some sort of consultation with NATO first.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/24/middleeast/warplane-crashes-near-syria-turkey-border/index.html

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isn't this like the third plane shot down?

 

Nato protocols are in place, gotta keep the Russians/Syrians on a tight leash.

 

Turkey in the past has shot down a Syrian plane and helicopter (made by Russia, but no operated by Russia).  To my knowledge, this is the only Russian air craft that they have shot down.

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Funny how turkey says they violated airspace yet they do that on a constant basis! Turkey is not a u.n. Allie, when you boo a national anthem and boo a moment of silence for the victims of Paris you don't deserve a breathe of air.

http://www.sigmalive.com/en/news/greece/136111/turkey-repeatedly-violates-greek-airspace

http://www.businessinsider.com/turkish-and-greek-jets-engaged-in-dogfight-2015-7

Wondering why Russia is flying through Turkey. I certainly assume they're there with Assad's permission. So they have access to Syrian airbases.

Russia is not flying in turkey. Turkey views the surrounding are of Syria there land and even the Greek islands. The USA media sucks big time! I suggest people do there own research instead of being sheep to the masses. Always assume and consider if the source is biased.

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Turkey in the past has shot down a Syrian plane and helicopter (made by Russia, but no operated by Russia).  To my knowledge, this is the only Russian air craft that they have shot down.

 

 no real difference between Syrian/Russian at this point.....Russia made it's choice.

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Possibly (make that "almost certainly") a dumb question, but I'm wondering if maybe we need to drop "get Assad overthrown" from our "to do" list. 

 

Looks, to me, like there's way too much military hardware actually being used, in that area.  Thus vastly increasing the odds of more "Aw ****!" moments that make history so colorful. 

 

I'm thinking that helping rebels overthrow their own dictators was, and is, a noble goal.  And I'd feel really terrible if we had to abandon what I think is a good principal. 

 

But with Russia helping Assad, and with multiple nations fighting ISIL, and with the Kurdish problem, and other things, I'm wondering of this pile of string just has too many interconnected strings in it. 

 

AND it seems like the efforts to help the rebels overthrow Assad has been going on for years, and it doesn't look like they're going to succeed.  Maybe he's just too good a dictator.  Maybe he's just got too many powerful friends.  Maybe the Syrian people don't want it bad enough. 

 

but I'm wondering if maybe deciding we'll fight ISIL, but overthrowing Assad isn't a priority any more, might be a way to un-complicate this situation. 

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Possibly (make that "almost certainly") a dumb question, but I'm wondering if maybe we need to drop "get Assad overthrown" from our "to do" list.

Looks, to me, like there's way too much military hardware actually being used, in that area. Thus vastly increasing the odds of more "Aw ****!" moments that make history so colorful.

I'm thinking that helping rebels overthrow their own dictators was, and is, a noble goal. And I'd feel really terrible if we had to abandon what I think is a good principal.

But with Russia helping Assad, and with multiple nations fighting ISIL, and with the Kurdish problem, and other things, I'm wondering of this pile of string just has too many interconnected strings in it.

AND it seems like the efforts to help the rebels overthrow Assad has been going on for years, and it doesn't look like they're going to succeed. Maybe he's just too good a dictator. Maybe he's just got too many powerful friends. Maybe the Syrian people don't want it bad enough.

but I'm wondering if maybe deciding we'll fight ISIL, but overthrowing Assad isn't a priority any more, might be a way to un-complicate this situation.

People tell what is the Kurdish problem? Please inform me. there is a problem and that is turkey . The Kurds are fighting Isis. Are you pro Isis? The Turks are in turn killing the Kurds.

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but I'm wondering if maybe deciding we'll fight ISIL, but overthrowing Assad isn't a priority any more, might be a way to un-complicate this situation. 

 

I think the issue is that doesn't really fix the problem.  In the context  of even if you "defeat" "ISIS" with Assad there, some group is going to oppose him and that group will either co-opt or be co-opted by extremists.

 

Where things are going to really get sticky is if/when whatever central government is there tries to reassert control of Kurdish controlled/occupied territories.

 

Are we going to allow a Russian/Iranian regime suppress the Kurds?

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Funny how turkey says they violated airspace yet they do that on a constant basis! Turkey is not a u.n. Allie, when you boo a national anthem and boo a moment of silence for the victims of Paris you don't deserve a breathe of air.

http://www.sigmalive.com/en/news/greece/136111/turkey-repeatedly-violates-greek-airspace

http://www.businessinsider.com/turkish-and-greek-jets-engaged-in-dogfight-2015-7

Russia is not flying in turkey. Turkey views the surrounding are of Syria there land and even the Greek islands. The USA media sucks big time! I suggest people do there own research instead of being sheep to the masses. Always assume and consider if the source is biased.

 

1.  Isn't the Greek issue an issue of how far out Greek territory is with respect to some of these islands, which aren't even permanently inhabited in some cases.  If there is some island out there and nobody lives on it, is it really part of your territory?  Your own link even describes it as the Turks are recognizing 5 miles while the Greeks are claiming 10.

 

2.  In this case, the Turks are claiming the Russians violated their air space- not just entered Syrian air space close to Turkey.

 

Previously, even the Russians admitted to actually violating their air space, but claimed it was because of bad weather.

 

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/10/05/russia-bad-weather-caused-jet-violate-turkish-airspace/73394304/

 

(which NATO/the US rejected as a reasonable accuse.

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Where things are going to really get sticky is if/when whatever central government is there tries to reassert control of Kurdish controlled/occupied territories.

I could see that being a problem. And can think of other ways things could get really sticky.

One possible sticky outcome is, suppose we decide to leave Assad alone, and we're just here to fight ISIS. And then decide that Assad/Russia/The West lick ISIS out of the Muslim parts of Syria, and Assad decides that he's perfectly happy to leave ISIS alone, in the Kurdish areas?  (Heck, he might even decide that he likes it when ISIS kills Kurds.  And attacks Turkey and/or Iraq.) 

 

Another potential problem is, right now, it looks like the best anti-ISIS force in the region, are the Kurds.  But, how do you help the Kurds overthrow ISIS, without turning them into a military that will demand their own country, after they kick ISIS out? 

 

(Granted, this would be a whole lot simpler is the Kurds just had their own country.  To me, that's the Right way for this mess to end up.  That whole "self determination" thing, and all.  But making Turkey accept that outcome is another matter.) 

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John Bolton normally makes me pull my hair out in disgust, but this makes a lot of sense:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/25/opinion/john-bolton-to-defeat-isis-create-a-sunni-state.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0
 

John Bolton: To Defeat ISIS, Create a Sunni State

Rather than striving to recreate the post-World War I map, Washington should recognize the new geopolitics. The best alternative to the Islamic State in northeastern Syria and western Iraq is a new, independent Sunni state.This “Sunni-stan” has economic potential as an oil producer (subject to negotiation with the Kurds, to be sure), and could be a bulwark against both Mr. Assad and Iran-allied Baghdad. The rulers of the Arab Gulf states, who should by now have learned the risk to their own security of funding Islamist extremism, could provide significant financing. And Turkey — still a NATO ally, don’t forget — would enjoy greater stability on its southern border, making the existence of a new state at least tolerable.

 

The Turks would surely object to an independent Kurdish state but there must be some difficult compromise in the region.

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Apparently Turkey has claimed that it shot and killed the pilots as they parachuted down.

This could be a pretty big **** up.

 

Where did yo see that?

 

The last I saw one was dead (but not specifically that they were shot by Turkey) and the other was captured by Syrian rebels (Turkman rebels, but not Turkey).

 

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/Russian-pilot-killed-another-feared-to-be-in-rebel-hands-after-plane-is-downed-over-Syria-by-Turkey/articleshow/49907628.cms

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To add to the complication, a US-backed Syrian rebel group is claiming to have shot down a Russian search helicopter using a US supplied missile.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-rescue-helicopter-shot-down-6891003

Well, Russia has been pretty transparent about not focusing on ISIS as targets of their airstrikes. They have been going after rebel groups that the US has armed for the past few years. So this should not be surprising to the US or Russia. They decided to enter the conflict. Hope they didn't expect to not suffer any losses.

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Apparently, the Russians have been bombing ethnic Turks that live in Syria (i.e. Syrian Turks) and the plane and pilots went down under territory controlled by these ethnic Turks.

 

And now the Syrian Turks are after the pilots and any Russian rescue operations.

 

And Turkey has been upset by the Russian bombings of the Syrian Turks.


Well, Russia has been pretty transparent about not focusing on ISIS as targets of their airstrikes. They have been going after rebel groups that the US has armed for the past few years. So this should not be surprising to the US or Russia. They decided to enter the conflict. Hope they didn't expect to not suffer any losses.

 

Yeah, but just at the nation state level, the more Russians that are killed, the harder it is going to be for them back away from the situation.

 

Shooting down a plane is one thing, but if the end result is 5 dead Russians, then for his domestic audience it isn't going to be easy for Putin to walk away without some sort of  penalty being paid by Turkey.

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