Official 2015 Fantasy Football Thread

[SoulSkin]

Speaking of Funchess, how do people feel about the young WRs in general?  Looking at Watkins, Evans, Beckham Jr., Keenan Allen, Cooper, Hilton, Landry, etc.

 

I'd rank them

 

Beckham Jr.-top 5 wr easy, potential #1 overall if he stays healthy. I'd take only Brown, Julio, and Dez over him.

 

Evans-worried he might regress a little as Winston had his ups and downs, but big potential to be around what he did last year, 1050 yards and 12 TDs. He worked out with Randy Moss in the offseason, FWIW.

 

Hilton-I like him, but I think I'd take Evans and maybe Cooks from NO over him, if they were there. Just my own bias. I think if I did end up with Hilton, I might take a flyer on Dorsett late, just in case of injury. He'll have WR1 weeks and underwhelming weeks. I just like consistency. 

 

Cooper- Think he's going to have a big year. Looks great so far, and will be the primary receiving target.

 

Allen- Just a gut feeling taking Cooper over him. Reports from camp and offseason are raving about how he's in great shape and playing great. His rookie year he had just over 1000 yards and 8 TDs. I thought he had better stats that year. I think he could be right around that again, but I think Cooper will do better than that.

.

Landry-Really like him this year. Tannehill is looking at him early and often so far. Only thing that worries me a little is Cameron taking a lot of targets, but I actually think him and Stills opens things up for Landry. should be really good, steady PPR guy.

 

Watkins- I just don't really want much to do with a run heavy offense and that QB situation. I see him ranked ahead of Landry a lot. I'd rather have Landry.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Jordy Nelson torn ACL it appears. That's a dagger. Davonte Adams time

[Chew]

Jordy Nelson torn ACL it appears. That's a dagger. Davonte Adams time

Just saw this. I have him on two teams. FML

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

Just saw this. I have him on two teams. FML

Why did y'all draft so early?  Or is it a keeper league where you already had him?

[Chump Bailey]

Just had my draft - feeling pretty good...

 

PPR - 6 Point TD's

 

Big Ben

CJ Anderson, CJ Spiller, Ameer Abdullah, Alfred Blue, Tre Mason, David Johnson

Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, John Brown, Stevie Johnson

Tyler Eifert

Rams

Dan Bailey

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Jordy is exactly why I make sure all my leagues draft after the 3rd ore season game and ideally after the 4th if possible. Granted this wasn't an in-game injury and could have just as easily occurred early in the season, but you're still eliminating the chance by a few weeks.

Someone's season is substantially shot before it even starts. That's kind of BS in my mind

[MattFancy]

1st draft was last night. Picked 11th in a 12-team PPR. All TDs are worth 6 points.

 

1. Dez Bryant

2. Odell Beckham

3. Mark Ingram

4. DeAndre Hopkins

5. Joseph Randle

6. Ben Roethlisberger

7. Gio Bernard

8. Davante Adams - draft was going on as the Jordy news broke

9. Tevin Coleman

10. Julius Thomas

11. Duke Johnson

12. Doug Baldwin

13. Knile Davis

14. Josh Hill

15. Cardinals

16. Mason Crosby

 

We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 W/R/T, 1 K, 1 DST

 

My projected lineup as of now:

 

QB - Ben

RB - Ingram

WR - Dez

TE - Thomas

Flex - Beckham, Hopkins, Randle

K- Crosby

DST - Cardinals

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Man ... Matt ... those are some stout WRs! Solid draft for picking so late. A bit weak at RB, but at least you've got some upside guys in Coleman, Johnson and particularly Randle. 

[MattFancy]

Man ... Matt ... those are some stout WRs! Solid draft for picking so late. A bit weak at RB, but at least you've got some upside guys in Coleman, Johnson and particularly Randle. 

 

Yeah not thrilled with my RBs, but I have 4 WRs that I can easily play week in and week out and feel good about. Plus with Roethlisberger as well. The weak RBs may not hurt me here as much since I really only need 1 every week. If one of Ingram or Randle can sneak into RB1 territory, I'll be set.

[Chew]

Why did y'all draft so early? Or is it a keeper league where you already had him?

Two random yahoo BS leagues I joined last week because I had fantasy fever and couldn't wait until my regular leagues got going lol.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Yeah, I wouldn't talk you out of keeping Brown as Sigmund Bloom puts it.  You're in a pretty privileged position where there isn't exactly a wrong play.  The risk in this decision for you is pretty low.

So the keepers were submitted Saturday and midnight ... because 4 people chose to keep players for their 1st round pick ... my 10th (and last) first round pick is now the 6th overall pick ... and my 11th pick to lead off the 2nd round is now the 7th pick.

 

Because I chose to keep Latavius Murray for a 10th over Antonio Brown for a 2nd (along with Le'Veon Bell for a 3rd) ... I have a shot at getting Brown back at 6/7. The top 8 players remaining after being kept are: Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, CJ Anderson.

 

Assuming chalk ... Brown will be gone, but I'll still get Demaryius and Julio at 6/7 ... and if someone goes against the chalk and a 5th RB (Anderson?) goes #5 ... Brown should fall back in my lap, and I'll get Demaryius or Julio to go with em.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Yeah not thrilled with my RBs, but I have 4 WRs that I can easily play week in and week out and feel good about. Plus with Roethlisberger as well. The weak RBs may not hurt me here as much since I really only need 1 every week. If one of Ingram or Randle can sneak into RB1 territory, I'll be set.

And WRs are more reliable. I've found myself targeting WRs over RBs earlier this year for some reason. I feel like there are a lot more upside RBs that can be had later ... Especially where you picked at the end of the 1st, I would much prefer WR-WR and getting two studs ... than I would going WR and grabbing one of the 2nd tier RBs like McCoy, Forte, Anderson, etc. who have more ? marks.

 

I'm most surprised by CJ Anderson, honestly. I know he had a great finish to the season last year ... but he did it in a 7-8 game stretch and didn't seize the job until late in the season. Now folks are just assuming he'll be a Top 5-10 RB because of the offense and his performance last year ... but he's one injury or game missed away from Hillman or Ball stealing that job back. 

[MattFancy]

And WRs are more reliable. I've found myself targeting WRs over RBs earlier this year for some reason. I feel like there are a lot more upside RBs that can be had later ... Especially where you picked at the end of the 1st, I would much prefer WR-WR and getting two studs ... than I would going WR and grabbing one of the 2nd tier RBs like McCoy, Forte, Anderson, etc. who have more ? marks.

 

I'm most surprised by CJ Anderson, honestly. I know he had a great finish to the season last year ... but he did it in a 7-8 game stretch and didn't seize the job until late in the season. Now folks are just assuming he'll be a Top 5-10 RB because of the offense and his performance last year ... but he's one injury or game missed away from Hillman or Ball stealing that job back. 

 

Anderson seems to be flying up draft boards. I think he could be a solid RB this year, but I don't like him in the 1st. Maybe early 2nd depending who is there. But Denver has lost some key pieces to the OL and Montee Ball is still hanging around there. And it seems like they have no problem moving on to another RB if one gets injured or is ineffective.

[nonniey]

1st draft was last night. Picked 11th in a 12-team PPR. All TDs are worth 6 points.

 

1. Dez Bryant

2. Odell Beckham

3. Mark Ingram

4. DeAndre Hopkins

5. Joseph Randle

6. Ben Roethlisberger

7. Gio Bernard

8. Davante Adams - draft was going on as the Jordy news broke

9. Tevin Coleman

10. Julius Thomas

11. Duke Johnson

12. Doug Baldwin

13. Knile Davis

14. Josh Hill

15. Cardinals

16. Mason Crosby

 

We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 W/R/T, 1 K, 1 DST

 

My projected lineup as of now:

 

QB - Ben

RB - Ingram

WR - Dez

TE - Thomas

Flex - Beckham, Hopkins, Randle

K- Crosby

DST - Cardinals

That is one of the better drafts results I've seen.  Think you will contend with that lineup.

[nonniey]

Had another SuperFlex  -  2 QB option 12 team PPR League. (One more big one tomorrow). Picked 7th

 

1.7 - RB   L. Bell

2.6 - WR  D. Bryant 

3.7 - QB   M. Stafford

4,6   - QB   C. Newton

5.7   - RB    A. Morris

6.6   - WR   D Jackson

7.7   - TE    M Bennet

8.6   - RB    J Randle

9.7   - QB    R Fitzpatrick (This was an accident Wife distracted me and I picked from the bottom of my Queue)

10.6 - RB    T. Mason

11.7 - WR   L. Fitzgerald (Who I meant to draft at 9.7 - would have taken Alex Smith here so mistake almost was a wash - almost).

12.6 - WR   M. Wheaton ( Most don't seem to be following that he is starting ahead of Matavis Bryant who went in round 5)

13.7 - WR   Stevie Johnson

14.6 - RB    D Freeman

15.7 - D      Dolphins  

16.6 - WR  D Bowe

17.7 - WR  L Hankerson (Flyer on Roddy White injury history)

18.8 - K      M Crosby

[JamesMadisonSkins]

So I'm devising a couple of draft strategies for both a snake league and an auction league. Here are some of the names I'm kicking around ... I've done what I would claim to be pretty extensive research ... and feel good about my choices ... but it always helps to get some peer insight/advice/guidance. So what do you think? The parentheses prices are a rough pinning of how much these players are going for in auction drafts on Yahoo. I'm targeting a lot of "upside" and "sleepers" though some are clearly no-longer sleepers. But these guys are big-time on my list for targeting in drafts. 

 

RBs:

1. Latavius Murray ($16) - think he's going to have a big year if he can stay healthy

2. Lamar Miller ($15) - flying under the radar, particularly cheap in auction drafts

3. Ameer Abdullah ($6) - Price is still low but I'm sure it'll adjust to his increased expectations

4. Joseph Randle ($6) - if he can hold on to the job all year and play healthy, I don't see how, in this offense, he isn't a Top 12 back

5. David Johnson ($1) - sounds like he's taking the every-down back role in ARI ... just gotta hope there's touches to go around with Ellington

6. Todd Gurley ($20) - no brainer here, especially in any keeper format. If you can ride the wave of early-season, he'll be a stud

7. CJ Spiller ($3) - if he is healthy, he'll get touches. Think NO offense will surprise this year. Spiller in PPRs particularly

 

WRs:

1. Brandin Cooks ($24) - If he can stay healthy, he's going to have a monster year. Basically a must-have in all my leagues

2. Jordan Matthews ($18) - price is slowly rising ... he's going to have another big year with Bradford

3. Jarvis Landry ($5) - cheap ... but should continue to break-out with Tannehill

4. Charles Johnson ($2) - another cheap one, has great chemistry with Bridgewater and should have a solid year

5. Davante Adams ($2) - his price MUST rise ... but if you can get him cheap as a WR4/5 he will have a huge year for you

6. Allen Robinson ($2) - everyone is on Robinson like Landry, but his price is still low, and he could be a steal

7. Nelson Agholor ($2) - taking the role of Maclin in the Eagles offense, he should have an impact this year

8. Amari Cooper ($6) - simply because of the targets, he'll shine. His abilities give him a shot at a big year though. 

 

Thoughts?

In my #1 league I'm keeping Le'Veon Bell and Demaryius Thomas for a combined $81 on a $220 budget. So with the remaining $139, my ideal grouping would be (also keep in mind a 2-keeper league):

 

QB: Tannehill ($5), Bridgewater ($1)

RB: Murray ($16), Miller ($18), Abdullah ($8), D. Johnson ($1)

WR: Cooks ($30), Matthews ($25), Landry ($5), Adams ($3)

TE: Kelce ($14)

K+DEF = $2-3 

 

Back-up plan is if Cooks/Matthews get too pricey, to replace one with Cooper, and grab a vet. like Marshall to supplant the youth at WR ... and use the savings to go after Gurley instead of Johnson. It's fluid, but that's my strategy. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I think the best strategy/advice I ever got (and it was so simple) was ... "draft for the next year's Top 10-20 and you'll be fine" ...

 

So don't draft based on what this year's draft boards say ... draft based on what you think NEXT year's draft boards will say, because of said player's results this year. Now that's hard to do for some players. No one saw CJ Anderson coming, or the Odell breakout quite like he did. 

 

But I could easily see Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews being Top 10 sure-fire WRs in next-year's draft. Same with Davante Adams (top 20) if he can fill the Jordy shoes in Green Bay. At RB, there's a lot of familiarity in the Top 10 and names that have been around (sans Hill and Anderson) ... but maybe go after someone like Randle (offense is explosive) ... Amber Abdullah (obvious), Todd Gurley (obvious) and Latavius Murray (tons of skill, needs to break out). Some more at WR ... Landry/Agholor/Robinson/Charles Johnson/Cooper, Watkins, etc. should all be in the Top 15-20 for years to come, but are being drafted outside of the Top 20 ... snag em.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

In a PPR league i think Matthews has the potential to be a top 5 in points at the WR position. 

[MattFancy]

I think the best strategy/advice I ever got (and it was so simple) was ... "draft for the next year's Top 10-20 and you'll be fine" ...

 

So don't draft based on what this year's draft boards say ... draft based on what you think NEXT year's draft boards will say, because of said player's results this year. Now that's hard to do for some players. No one saw CJ Anderson coming, or the Odell breakout quite like he did. 

 

But I could easily see Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews being Top 10 sure-fire WRs in next-year's draft. Same with Davante Adams (top 20) if he can fill the Jordy shoes in Green Bay. At RB, there's a lot of familiarity in the Top 10 and names that have been around (sans Hill and Anderson) ... but maybe go after someone like Randle (offense is explosive) ... Amber Abdullah (obvious), Todd Gurley (obvious) and Latavius Murray (tons of skill, needs to break out). Some more at WR ... Landry/Agholor/Robinson/Charles Johnson/Cooper, Watkins, etc. should all be in the Top 15-20 for years to come, but are being drafted outside of the Top 20 ... snag em.

 

I'd say that's only true in keeper leagues. In non keeper leagues, I want guys that I know will be in the top 10-20, for this season.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I'd say that's only true in keeper leagues. In non keeper leagues, I want guys that I know will be in the top 10-20, for this season.

Sorry, I should have worded that better. The quote basically said, draft on potential, not what they did last year. So assuming you draft based on next year's Top 10-20, you'd assume the player, in most cases, had a big year in 2015. But if you draft guys who all are in the Top 5-10 because of what they did last year, they're more likely than not going to let you down. 

 

I guess the prime example of this was in 2013 ... LeSean McCoy was coming off a down year in 2012 ... I went out on a limb and drafted him #2 overall when everyone else was going Forte, Rice and Foster. McCoy finished #1 ahead of all those guys.

 

Last year, I drafted DeMarco Murray at #6 ... ahead of quite a few players. I just had a good feeling about him. I also drafted Le'Veon Bell in the same league in the 4th round ... because I saw the potential there as well, and felt like a lot of people were bailing on him for silly reasons. Murray and Bell finished #1 and #2 last year at RB. I'm not saying I'm a genius ... but I took the advice and went for the upside guys even in places where it seemed stupid to do so (Murray at #6 when he was going late 1st/early 2nd). I wanted Murray, knew I wouldn't likely get him in the 2nd, so I took him. 

It doesn't always work that way, but if you read the articles, follow the trends, and stay somewhat conservative on the hype, you can make balanced decisions. 

 

I won't be touching Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, or CJ Anderson this year, even if they "fall in my lap" at the end of the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds. As best I can tell, they've all maxed out on their performances and are unlikely to finish this year where they're currently being drafted.

[MattFancy]

That makes more sense.

 

I always go in with the thought of not having to pay for last year's production. Which is why everyone who took Peyton in the 1st last year was nuts. There was no way he was going to repeat his 55TDs from the year before.

 

2 guys that come to mind this year are DeMarco Murray and CJ Anderson. Sure, both could be solid RBs this year, but I'm not willing to pay their current prices to bet on them to repeat it again this year. Especially with a different team/coach.

 

It's important to be able to identify those guys who could jump into the upper levels at their positions. You win leagues by finding those guys in the middle/late rounds that have high ceilings.

 

Not sure I agree with you on Forsett. With Trestman coming to Baltimore, he should see a nice tick in receptions and could be a really good value in the late 2nd/early 3rds of drafts.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Forsett has been on every love list I have seen so far, so he's getting the hype. My concern with him is that it's pushed him a bit above his value. In some formats he's being drafted in the late 1st/early 2nd. I just can't endorse going that early on a "one-hit-wonder" even if everything else is pointing in his general favor.

 

I would slightly disagree with you on DeMarco. I think the team-change and off-season has shot him down the boards. He's going late 1st in a lot of formats. If he had stayed in Dallas, he'd be the no-brainer #1 overall pick this year. So I think he could certainly finish as a Top 3 RB and if he does, he's very much worth that late 1st/early 2nd round pick. 

 

It's tough to truly find the diamonds in the rough. Odell was nowhere near the top of the Rookie WR discussion last year because of his injury. Now the other rookies had strong years, but Odell came out of nowhere. I think, if you're looking for that sort of production this year, you need to look at Davante Adams. Team loves him, he was hyped last year, but there were too many mouths to feed. Now he's likely going to step in as a top target for Rodgers. Wouldn't shock me if he went for 1,200 and 8 TDs. Jarvis Landry is going to catch damn-near 100 balls. Avg. and TDs might not be there, but he'll put up 100 receptions, 1,200 yards and 6 TDs. Jordan Matthews and Brandin Cooks are two guys being drafted in the 10-20 WR range that I think could/will end up in the Top 10 if not Top 5. If Cooks stays healthy, I see a 100 catch, 1,300 yard and 10+ td season. Same with Matthews. 

[MattFancy]

Problem with Murray is that he had so many carries last year. Guys that get that amount tend to fall off the following year. Plus, last year was one of his more healthier seasons. And they brought in Mathews too. I just don't see Murray getting close to the numbers he put up last season.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

True on Murray. Just saying he's not going #1-3 so that's already somewhat accounted for.

So would I be better off keeping Demaryius Thomas for $50 or Jordan Matthews for $20. Whoever I don't keep I'm targeting either way. Just need to know what's the best value at this point. My gut says get as many studs as you can (starting with Demaryius to go along with Leveon Bell for $31) but I like the idea of committing less to Matthews and having more $$ to throw around in the draft

I want the 1-2-3 WR punch of Thomas, Cooks, Matthews and I think keeping Demaryius (who I know others want badly and will drive up his rate) gives me a better chance at Matthews and Cooks (who MIGHT be somewhat slept on)

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just finished my first mock auction draft. I didn't go big on anyone because I mainly wanted to see how the others would "set the bar" at the top. Only problem is ... as is usually the case in these things, most teams blew their money on their top 4-5 picks then bailed on the draft. So here's my resulting roster, and I targeted/was interested in seeing what my most targeted guys would go for ...

 

QB: Peyton Manning (10), Ryan Tannehill (7)

RB: Lamar Miller (14), Mark Ingram (13), Joshep Randle (8), Todd Gurley (7), Andre Ellington (8)

WR: Brandin Cooks (34), Jordan Matthews (28), Brandon Marshall (8), Jeremy Maclin (2), Keenan Allen (2), Jarvis Landry (5)

TE: Julius Thomas (4)

DEF: SEATTLE (2)

K: Stephen Gostkowski (2)

 

Had $45 left over at the end. Everyone blew their wad early, so it was easy pickin' at the end ... don't expect that to happen in real life, but as a result I loaded up on bench guys. Wouldn't mind that team though, especially if I could theoretically flip a few of them for a big name at some point in the hypothetical season.