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Yes.  

 

Next set of games will tell the tale. 

 

US home vs TNT 

Mexico home vs Panama

Costa Rica home vs Honduras 

 

all three home team wins and the US will move to 3rd place by 2 points. 

 

Then 

US @ Mexico.  If we manage a point, we probably can relax.  

 

 

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Donovan tweeted after the game that it was a great result. Before the game Herculez Gomez said we needed to manage the game and get out with a point. This is the type of mentality that needs to be jettisoned from US Soccer.

 

Putting aside how we played yesterday, just looking at who we should and shouldnt beat, a point from Panama isnt even a good result. Its a meh result. Panama is not a good enough team that we should be hoping for a point, we should be expecting 3 home or away. A point in Mexico is a good result, 3 points is a great result. A point at Panama is not a good result and certainly not a great result.

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Donovan tweeted after the game that it was a great result. Before the game Herculez Gomez said we needed to manage the game and get out with a point. This is the type of mentality that needs to be jettisoned from US Soccer.

 

Putting aside how we played yesterday, just looking at who we should and shouldnt beat, a point from Panama isnt even a good result. Its a meh result. Panama is not a good enough team that we should be hoping for a point, we should be expecting 3 home or away. A point in Mexico is a good result, 3 points is a great result. A point at Panama is not a good result and certainly not a great result.

 

 

 

 

 

Yup. Overall CONCACAF record against them is 12-3-2.

 

http://www.11v11.com/teams/usa/tab/opposingTeams/opposition/panama/

 

 

 

 

Also, Bruce's tactics...

 

 

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6 hours ago, AsburySkinsFan said:

Really wanted 3

It doesnt' matter. Points are a premium. They already got 4 when they had 0. They're 4th place or something, haven't checked the table. 

 

Arenas' job is to guide this team through to the World Cup. It is likely possible especially the way we playing. Keep in mind it is extremely difficult to not get out of the Hex. 

Edited by ixcuincle
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10 hours ago, ixcuincle said:

It doesnt' matter. Points are a premium. They already got 4 when they had 0. They're 4th place or something, haven't checked the table. 

 

Arenas' job is to guide this team through to the World Cup. It is likely possible especially the way we playing. Keep in mind it is extremely difficult to not get out of the Hex. 

All that's fine, I just wish we were playing significantly better. Looks like we've swapped places with Mexico.

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I dont think it's fair to analyze the US play currently.  Too much change over the last couple of months.

 

I think JK deserves a ton of credit for changing the mindset and creating an environment at US soccer that broadens the player pool.

 

I dont know what Arena can do in this environment.  My gut tells me that he's only here through next summer WC.

 

What we saw against Panama was old school, Arenaball.  The dreaded empty bucket formation that allows opponents tons of possession, but not alot of good scoring chances.  Panama's goal was fluky.  Thats the risk.  We didnt have a lineup that was going to produce a flurry of goals like we saw against Honduras.

 

Our next game vs TnT, I think we will see a more attacking style, then back to a shell to try and get a point at Mexico.  It's the way Arena plays, and honestly, probably the smart thing to do after starting the Hex 0-2.

 

For the math geeks, BigSoccer has a great thread about Hex simulation and potential results.  

http://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/simulating-the-hex.2036224/page-3

 

Here's the current table -

 

  1. USA point/qualification distribution:

    4 - Nope
    5 - 5 (all 6th)
    6 - 16 (5th-1, 6th-15)
    7 - 38 (5th-11, 6th-27)
    8 - 109 (4th-11, 5th-67, 6th-31)
    9 - 212 (3rd-1, 4th-76, 5th-128, 6th-7)
    10 - 383 (3rd-27, 4th-234, 5th-117, 6th-5)
    11 - 747 (3rd-143, 4th -507, 5th-97)
    12 - 881 (2nd-1, 3rd-386, 4th-468, 5th-26)
    13 - 1013 (2nd-15, 3rd-642, 4th-344, 5th-12)
    14 - 1565 (2nd-54, 3rd-1215, 4th-296)
    15 - 1161 (2nd-171, 3rd-928, 4th-62)
    16 - 1224 (2nd-314, 3rd-888, 4th-22)
    17 - 1378 (1st-4, 2nd-662, 3rd-712)
    18 - 333 (1st-9, 2nd-201, 3rd-123)
    19 - 613 (1st-16, 2nd-458, 3rd-139)
    20 - 249 (1st-44, 2nd-194, 3rd-11)
    21 - N/A
    22 - 73 (1st-32, 2nd-41)
     
    What this means is that in 10 thousand simulated results for the remaining games, the US finished with the points listed on the far left, the number of times listed just to that numbers right, and then the parentheses show what the potential outcome would be.
     
    Ex- In those simulations, the US finished with 14 points 1565 times.  And of those, they finished 2nd in the Hex 54 times, 3rd 1215 times, and 4th 296 times.  They never finish worst than 4th.  So the magic number for at least the 4th place (ie playoff with Asia) is 14.  The magic number for 3rd place (straight qualification for Russia) is 17.  However, 16 is probably good enough, because out of 10 thousand simulations, 16 points did not qualify ONLY 22 times.
     
    I mention 16 because that uses the old formula of win at home, and tie on the road.  If the US does that, we're 98.9 percent sure of qualifying.
     
    Even a loss to at Mexico only drops that percent to 98.4
     
    So while I wasnt thrilled with the play at Panama, I can appreciate the reasoning behind it, and certainly appreciate the result.
Edited by Kilmer17
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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Ok, I'm trying to find some guidance here. This is a high school, club soccer, college prep question. 

I've been a bit quiet lately about my son's soccer playing, not because things have stopped.

We have three leagues around us for club; ranked lowest to highest KSSL, KPL, and MRL.

His club team promoted out of the KSSL two years ago and since joining the KPL has struggled to find its place off the bottom of the division. 

His skill level is continuing to grow, yesterday he had 12 saves with 20 shots on goal in the 2-1 loss against a team that was very winnable. There are a couple teams that we play that just plain manhandle us and leaves my son wholly frustrated. The best they've done in league play is a couple ties over two years. We have the some of the best talent south of Lexington. So as we close this club season we're faced with a choice and from where I stand it's not easy.

 

Pros-Cons:

Our club team dispite our losses has I believe a management problem, the parents who are volunteering are doing a great job, but they don't know what they don't know. Their kids will most likely not be playing college ball, as such I'm not certain they are looking to place the team in showcase tournaments for the next three years. If that's the case then it's a certainty that we'll be changing clubs.

 

Now the problem:

The other two top club teams in our area are Bluegrass FC and Lexington FC

 

1) Bluegrass FC: their 2001 team I do not believe plays in the KPL which is discouraging to be sure. So unless they are focusing on some other showcase tournaments then I'm not sure they're a viable option.

 

2) Lexington FC: is "rich kid" ball, they have talent but damn we can't stand them. Between the parents and the players there's hardly a more arrogant entitled group on the planet. They also play in the MRL which has a painfully intensive schedule that after three years of play would probably equal a college tuition.

 

3) Louisville teams: there are some clubs in Louisville area but the 1.5 hour commute each way to practice and home games is discouraging to say the least. But at this point, I'd drive to Louisville 2-3 times per week over going to Lexington FC. There are a lot more question marks about the right squad there but I believe my son could find a spot on most of those teams there.

 

I know that's all a bit rambling, but suffice it to say we are seriously considering a club change and I can't find a clear option. If anyone has any knowledgeable advice or direction I'm willing to listen.

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I think today some of my questions are answered. It looks like United 1996 FC out of Louisville is going to be what we aim for. The yearly fee is reasonanable considering there are no extra tournament assesments that need to be paid. They focus on showcasing players and seem to do a good job promoting them to colleges. They just had their second MLS player drafted with two more in college now. The best part is that the drive is only 15 minutes further thsn the Lexington club we've been trying to avoid.

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3 hours ago, AsburySkinsFan said:

I think today some of my questions are answered. It looks like United 1996 FC out of Louisville is going to be what we aim for. The yearly fee is reasonanable considering there are no extra tournament assesments that need to be paid. They focus on showcasing players and seem to do a good job promoting them to colleges. They just had their second MLS player drafted with two more in college now. The best part is that the drive is only 15 minutes further thsn the Lexington club we've been trying to avoid.

going through similar questions with the 10th circle of hell, otherwise known as AAU basketball.  eff that mess.  sounds like you landed at a good decision...

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11 minutes ago, dchogs said:

going through similar questions with the 10th circle of hell, otherwise known as AAU basketball.  eff that mess.  sounds like you landed at a good decision...

Someone needs to write a damn book, but by the time it gets published everything will have changed. The thing that keeps me up at night are the "things I don't know that I don't know." The fact that this is a "one bite at the apple" kinda deal drives me nuts.

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17 minutes ago, AsburySkinsFan said:

Someone needs to write a damn book, but by the time it gets published everything will have changed. The thing that keeps me up at night are the "things I don't know that I don't know." The fact that this is a "one bite at the apple" kinda deal drives me nuts.

no kidding.

 

my daughter's school had a spring long weekend this past weekend.  i had a 10 college tour all scheduled out for her and 3 friends... big schools, small schools, private schools, public schools, etc.  the whole gamut.  AAU schedule comes out, and we have a tourney, coach says it's the most impt of the year because the college coaches see the kids and then start following them.  we cancel the college tour, daughter contacts college coaches that we'll be at the tourney.  tournament comes, and my daughter plays something like 2 min a half.  she's not a starter, and that's fine, but at this level, there's very little drop off from player to player, and realistically-- in a "fair" system-- she should be getting at least 5 min a half give or take.  so the college coaches that said they'd come to see her watched her sit the bench.  would have been better off telling the coach to pound sand and go on the college tour.

 

so my wife and i are having a crisis of conscious.  do we become "those" parents?  it's supposed to be a showcase team, we've paid our cash... she should get her time.  at the same time, we're consoling a frustrated and upset girl and hoping that she gets pissed enough to ****ing break through the wall instead of backing away from it.  add in to it all that we have some college coaches as friends, and they all think AAU is a scam and kids would be better off just working on their game with a trainer or regular team.

 

our son was NO athlete, so this is our first ride on this merry go round, and we feel like we're doing our daughter a real disservice.  we're totally fine with her playing or not playing at whatever division works out, but this sucks.  one bite at the apple is right... and our first nibble hit a worm. 

 

basketball rant over.  sorry... back to US footie!

Edited by dchogs
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@dchogsthat sucks man, you make decisions based on the best info you have at the time only to find that some aren't working toward your goals.

 

From everything I'm hearing a combination of club teams (showcase tourneys), development camps, and personal training are the best route. My son will be at two camps this summer both development. Next year and following we split a showcase camp and a development camp. The struggle with the keeper position is that there's only one on the field at a time which is why the showcase camps are as important because the opportunities are far fewer.

 

I'm going to be uploading his game videos from high school last season. Damn he had some awesome games. After our final game of the season his coach told me that he believed Ethan could be a D1 prospect. 18 saves that night. :headbang:

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23 minutes ago, AsburySkinsFan said:

33419577834_d3f1b12acc_b.jpg

 

Completely serious.  

 

Going through it with my freshman son now and already beginning with my 6th grade daughter.  

 

Luckily my 3rd kid is 10 and has no athletic ability whatsoever.  

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  • 1 month later...

Anyone interested in US Soccer not watching the U20 World Cup, you should be. Some good, young talent in the pipeline.

 

The US won their group with a win and two draws, one a 3-3 stalemate with Ecuador after falling behind two goals. The youngsters then thrashed an overmatched New Zealand squad 6-0 in the round of 16.

 

The one kid who has really impressed is Josh Sargent, who just turned 17 in February. The son of two college soccer players, he is a true #9 that runs channels, has sublime touch to hold balls and direct the attack, is strong in the air, and shows uncanny instincts for a kid his age. Has become the youngest American to score for the U20's in an international competition, and has tied 3 others for most goals scored in said competition.

 

Another who has caught my eye is Luca De la Torre, who has been a pestering attacker from the left wing with deft touch and passing, and a strong strike for a small dude. Others on the squad include Brooks Lennon from Liverpool's academy, Cameron Carter-Vickers from Tottenham's academy, and with USMNT cap experience, and Eyrk Williamson from UMD Terp stardom, who dropped a beautiful dime behind the New Zealand back line to Lennon for the US's third goal yesterday.

 

Quarterfinal game at 1:55 am Sunday morning against Venezuela. Will be a tough contest as Venezuela has kept a clean sheet through all 4 of their games so far.

 

Myself, I can't wait to see Pulisic and Sargent on the pitch together for the USMNT, which should be sooner rather than later. Those two have world class talent, and the sooner they get to work together, the better for the future of US soccer.

Edited by Long n Left
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I've watched all 4 games so far.  Losing Zelalem hurt, but it has opened the door for others to show off a bit.   The US has really been dominant aside from Klinsmann vomiting on himself in the Ecuador game.

 

Venezuela is going to be tough.  But I'm sure they arent happy to be playing the US either.

 

The future is indeed bright for the US Natl team.

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This squad is old and slow, especially in the midfield, outside of Pulisic and Nagbe.

 

Yedlin looks much better however.

 

Not really understanding these substitutions after equalizing. 5 in the back??

 

By my count, 6 defenders on the pitch, plus Bradley. Dangerous attack!

Edited by Long n Left
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