Koolblue13 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said: For anyone thinking about Irma right now after that GFS run last night ... check out Dave Tolleris (WXRisk) post on it last night. I think the Euro may have supported that crazy GFS run but DT is fairly confident that the models are way off in the direction of the storm. There's apparently not enough to support a Cat 5 re: water temps and especially one that heads inland at NC/VA. It would be the greatest landfall of any storm since 1600 on the east coast and it's just not the type of storm that happens. It could gain Cat 5 in the open Atlantic but I think it would swerve off the coast and not make a direct landfall. I'll be on OBX from Sept 18-25 so maybe this is me being overly optimistic, but DT is pretty good at what he does and he scoffed at that model run last night. See what I just posted. I'll see if I can link to DTs post from overnight on it. But this is almost an impossible scenario. See what I just posted. I'll see if I can link to DTs post from overnight on it. But this is almost an impossible scenario. I'd love to get the link. I know it's a long shot of a storm like that hitting land, but the weather is getting scarier and more severe everyday. The impossible is starting to happen. Also why I said "could". I can't begin to imagine a storm like that hitting NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here's his most recent post re: the Euro from last night ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) DT (wxrisk guy) is a self righteous asshole but he's correct in that there is zero sense in reading into model runs over a week out for ANY storm, particularly hurricanes. Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast even 3 days out. Like I said yesterday, everyone between the Yucatán peninsula and Cape Cod need to keep their eye on this storm at this point. Edited September 1, 2017 by skinsfan_1215 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, skinsfan_1215 said: DT (wxrisk guy) is a self righteous asshole but he's correct in that there is zero sense in reading into model runs over a week out for ANY storm, particularly hurricanes. Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast even 3 days out. Hah, yeah for sure. He's definitely a punk and a name-caller ... but I tend to like his analysis ... been following him since the 2010 winter weather cycle when he had like 5,000 followers. Now he's in the hundreds of thousands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Soooo, tune up the gennie kinda situation or brush off the cannibalism recipes one? Hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The Tidewater region wants no part of a Cat 4. It would be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcsluggo Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This **** is just starting to get real......... ... i'm supposed to go to the mountains tomorrow, and my S'mores might end up getting soggy 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) Edited September 1, 2017 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That guy's a fear mongerer who knows a lot about weather but only posts the worst case **** to get publicity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said: The Tidewater region wants no part of a Cat 4. It would be devastating. I was living in Newport news when Isabel hit. It was barely a hurricane, cat 1 I think. It wrecked the whole area badly. Cat 4 would indeed be devastating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwack Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, tshile said: I was living in Newport news when Isabel hit. It was barely a hurricane, cat 1 I think. It wrecked the whole area badly. Cat 4 would indeed be devastating. No, Isabel was a good cat 1, if not a low cat 2 when it initially made landfall. What Matthew did to this area was bad enough last year, and that wasn't even a real hurricane. I don't even want to imagine what a hurricane of Irma's magnitude would do to us in Hampton Roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I thought it was cat 2 when it hit the outer banks and weakened significantly by the time it hit the hamton roads area. Was a long time ago, I was young. Doesn't matter. It just shows a cat 4 could destroy the area in ways that might not be fixable. At the very least it would take a very long time to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RemoveSnyder Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Bye @stevemcqueen1 it was nice knowing you. Norfolk and Hampton are in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) Edited September 1, 2017 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny21 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Man, this monsoon in Bangladesh/India... Jesus. 2/3 of Bangladesh under water, millions (and millions) displaced. https://www.google.com/amp/s/weather.com/amp/en-IN/india/news/news/bangladesh-nepal-india-monsoon-august-2017.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I know this is minor compared to the pain bein suffered in Houston and Bangladesh, but I just want to note that they have been keeping temperature records in San Francisco for over 150 years, and the highest temperature ever recorded here was 103 degrees. Usually it hovers between 55 and 75. today it hit 106. One hundred freaking six. "so?" You might ask. "Lots of places get hotter than that...." well, our houses don't have air conditioning. Aaaargh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 (edited) Edited September 2, 2017 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm not clicking on Anderson Cooper's click-bait tweet out of principle. There is not a place in Hampton Roads that's more than a mile from the Atlantic, James, York, Chesapeake Bay, Currituck/Albemarle Sound, or a tributary feeding into them. In addition to that, all of South Hampton Roads is 15 feet above sea level or less. In addition to that, this is a leafy region with massive deciduous trees standing beside houses in even the oldest and most developed neighborhoods. In addition to that, it's been raining most of the last week and the ground is saturated. Yesterday a large, healthy-looking tree fell over, just missing the apartment building beside mine. We had 28 mph winds yesterday... Hampton Roads has zero resiliency. Normal summer rains often put several of the roads in Norfolk under 3-4 feet of water. A category 4 storm like Harvey with major rainfall would render this region uninhabitable for months and, truth be told, it might never come back. Thankfully that kind of storm doesn't seem likely to make landfall here. But Irma looks like it's going to be Isabel all over again. And Isabel was bad enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Another thing the area doesn't deal well with is snow. The tiniest bit (like 1/4") would shut the place down. Too many over passes/bridges/roads in the air that freeze super quick and no one can drive in the snow. I went to the dmv one day with my roommate and it started snowing and I didn't think we'd make it home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 (edited) 6 hours ago, Predicto said: I know this is minor compared to the pain bein suffered in Houston and Bangladesh, but I just want to note that they have been keeping temperature records in San Francisco for over 150 years, and the highest temperature ever recorded here was 103 degrees. Usually it hovers between 55 and 75. today it hit 106. One hundred freaking six. "so?" You might ask. "Lots of places get hotter than that...." well, our houses don't have air conditioning. Aaaargh I hear the East and South have a minor cold front coming. a window unit ac at walmart is like a $100 Maybe some more green spaces would help? add never forget to laugh Edited September 2, 2017 by twa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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