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      The Bill Callahan era began here at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. For the first quarter it was really,really bad football being played by both teams. 
      The Redskins were determined to establish the Run game. The First Quarter all they established was that they still couldn’t run. Or pass. Or do much of anything. 
       
      It wasn’t until the 2nd Quarter that Peterson was able to start ripping the worst Run D in the League for chunks of 18 & 24 yards. The Skins managed to score a TD with a 25 yard pass to Scary Terry McLaurin. 
       
      The Dolphins would open the Second Half only managing five plays before the Redskins would get the ball punted back to them. They would run a balanced run/pass attack of six plays for 70 yards in 1:25 ending in McLaurin’s second touchdown of the day. The Defense would then get a turnover allowing the Offense to get to Field Goal range and add another 3 points to make the score 17-3. 
       
      To open the Fourth Quarter, Hopkins would miss a 55 yard Field Goal, leaving the score at 17-3.  After being sacked five times, the Dolphins would pull their own switcharoo at QB and go to Ryan “Neckbeard” Fitzpatrick which resulted in a touchdown drive for them, making it 17-10. They went for & recovered the Onside Kick. They also managed to not score any points after that. The Dolphins would find theirselves with ball at the 2:00 Warning. Fitzpatrick would take them on a 9 play 75 yard touchdown drive with six seconds remaining on the clock. Miami went for the win with the 2 Point Conversion and failed. The Redskins would recover the onside kick by Miami and Keenum took a knee to get the Redskins their first win of the season. 
d0ublestr0ker0ll

The Non-Winter Weather Thread

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Pretty sure this is what the Euro was showing all along, as the only outlier. No?

Yep, if it does go out to sea this will cement the EURO as top dog model.  Heck it really already is. 

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UMD just moved their game from 8pm Saturday to Noon Saturday due to the Hurricane.  Is anything new out?

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UMD just moved their game from 8pm Saturday to Noon Saturday due to the Hurricane.  Is anything new out?

 

I'm looking a the weather underground now, all of the posters say its too early to tell.

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Yep, still too early. Solution for the GFS last night made it a worse storm than Sandy for the NJ coast, now it's sending it out to sea...a few other models have followed suit, but some still shoot it in to the mid-atlantic.

3/4 days out, I'm not buying in to anything. We know a huge storm is there, and it's going to be flung up the coast, I'm still thinking about how I'll prevent flooding and whatnot. Getting the drains cleared today, the gutter extensions on. System coming in tomorrow looks like it's bringing the pain.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll

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As of 5 PM today, official National Hurricane Center has it going further out to the Atlantic:

 

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/storms/storm2_track.html

 

From NHC:

 

Overnight Wednesday, a pair of computer forecast models moved their tracks further east, but still suggested a possible track toward the U.S. East Coast. This trend continued with Thursday morning's initial computer model forecast guidance.

NOAA Gulfstream aircraft surveillance missions and extra balloon soundings launched from National Weather Service offices on the mainland may have contributed to the eastward shift in some of the model guidance.

Despite that, there still remains uncertainty in Joaquin's future track, and, thus, its potential impact on the U.S. this weekend.

It's not uncommon to have a large amount of uncertainty with a forecast track three to four days in advance of a direct hit from a tropical storm or hurricane. Average track errors in the three- to four-day forecast range have been between 113 and 157 nautical miles in the last five years, according to the National Hurricane Center. This could be the difference between hurricane-force winds and winds remaining below tropical storm force at any point down the line.

The National Hurricane Center says hurricane watches could be issued for parts of the East Coast Friday.

Bottom line, if you live on the East Coast, remain vigilant and monitor for forecast changes.

 

 

Hope it tracks further and further out to sea.

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I'm in the boat repair business. And I'm also a home owner on the Bay. I'm on the fence on this one.

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So, you're always in a win/lose haha.

A tortured existence, I tell you.

"Oh sweet! Overtime. I'll need it just to fix my house."

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This gif updates itself:

wv-animated.gif

As of 9:30pm thurs, storms coming through the region tomorrow are flaring up off of the SC coast. You can see the far northwestern portion of Joaquin starting to get swept north by the Low's trough. That's what is going to catch and throw Joaquin northward pretty soon.

It has taken quite an alarming southwestern track the past few hours. The 18z model runs gave it a bit more of a chance to make landfall than the 12z runs did. The bigtime 0z runs are on deck.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll

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That gif looks like something a scientist would show as a worse case scenario before The Rock springs into action to save the day.

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Now I'm hearing it may hit SC. Nobody knows what this thing is gonna do!

ALL models, or at least all the ones with any credibility, have sided with the out to sea solution today. It's taking it's time turning but as of RIGHT NOW a U.S. landfall appears unlikely.

We'll see what tomorrow's runs bring!

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Models moved Joaquin's projected track a bit west on their 0z runs, even the Euro did. GFS has it riding the coast, albeit pretty far off. That's still more concerning than thursday's model runs.

The ole NAM keeps throwing this thing right in to the mid-atlantic coast. Grain of salt.

Grain of salt with every model, really. Even the Euro and updated GFS. Weather is still too wonky for them. They're always adjusting their forecasts, often dramatically. Then, after the fact, they'll still have gotten it wrong.

Great tools to get an idea of what is looming.

With that said, Joaquin is still chillin, and is doing a weird little circle now, where it went w/sw, now it's moved a couple ticks e/ne. Weird mf storm, and a powerhouse. I'm still weary.

Last week it was predicted to be, at best, a tropical depression that would slide up the coast. Now we have a borderline cat 5 dancing like James Brown off the coast of FL.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll
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With that said, Joaquin is still chillin, and is doing a weird little circle now, where it went w/sw, now it's moved a couple ticks e/ne. Weird mf storm, and a powerhouse. I'm still weary.

Last week it was predicted to be, at best, a tropical depression that would slide up the coast. Now we have a borderline cat 5 dancing like James Brown off the coast of FL.

 

 

This storm is so bizarre, it's just sitting there.  I can't imagine what we will see once people get out from their homes in the Bahamas. 

 

 

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Rain looks like it will last all day today, and go in to the late night hours. Worst is yet to come.

 

Worst?

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Worst?

The thick of it has entered the DC area. Should remain like it is now in to tonight, with the potential for torrential downpours mixed in there. Localized flooding is a major concern.

As far as Sunday, the hurricane is what you want to watch out for. Right now it's still up in the air where it will go.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll

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The thick of it has entered the DC area. Should remain like it is now in to tonight, with the potential for torrential downpours mixed in there. Localized flooding is a major concern.

As far as Sunday, the hurricane is what you want to watch out for. Right now it's still up in the air where it will go.

 

Are you sure? Everything I've read seems pretty confident that it's not going to effect the East Coast

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Are you sure? Everything I've read seems pretty confident that it's not going to effect the East Coast

That's what the latest model runs say.  But they are just models, look a yesterdays.  Tomorrows will probably be different.  The timeline has been WAY off.  It just keeps sitting down over the bahamas spinning. 

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That's what the latest model runs say.  But they are just models, look a yesterdays.  Tomorrows will probably be different.  The timeline has been WAY off.  It just keeps sitting down over the bahamas spinning. 

 

I mean there's a slight chance it could still head this way, but for the most part, most models have it staying OTS

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I mean there's a slight chance it could still head this way, but for the most part, most models have it staying OTS

 

Every single model I've read, from the justinweather site, to the capital weather gang, etc, is saying all of these models are working with a VERY low confidence in the variables.

 

Here's a good write up about it:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/01/why-the-forecast-cone-of-uncertainty-is-inadequate-for-hurricane-joaquin/

 

Why the forecast cone of uncertainty is inadequate for Hurricane Joaquin

...

Hurricane Joaquin has proven to be a difficult forecast — much more difficult than other recent East Coast hurricanes.

...

But surprisingly, the size of the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty — the cone that surrounds the main track line and gives a range of possibilities for the storm’s future path — is not determined by the specific forecast uncertainty for that particular storm. Instead, it represents an average track error over the past five years. As the forecasts get better each year, the cone shrinks, but it is also fixed in size for each storm that year, with no regard for whether the forecast is high- or low-confidence.

...

“There is no rational explanation for why the National Hurricane Center product suite is so rigid it precludes incorporating readily available case dependent information that reflects reality much more so than simple statistics,” said Steve Tracton, a contributor to the Capital Weather Gang. “Especially in cases like this there is no need to await the long promised, but not delivered computer algorithms to do this.”

...

“The two computer models that have traditionally performed best [the GFS and the European] BOTH go outside of the cone — one to the right and one to the left,” Weather Channel meteorologist Bryan Norcross wrote on Facebook. “The cone splits the difference.”

...

(there's a lot more at the link, it's a good read on this particular storm)

 

In some cases people are criticizing the national hurricane center for releasing this cone because they're afraid that since it pretty much has it going to out to sea, people will stop paying attention and will not be prepared if it does infact hit us.

 

So at this point it seems like what they're saying is - Yes, the models have it going out to sea, but we have no real confidence in those models at this point so hang tight.

Edited by tshile
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I addressed the fallibility of the models a few posts back. The Euro whiffed on the last non-snowstorm of this past winter, among plenty of other storms. Early in the week, none showed the solution we're seeing now. Weren't even close.

That's not to say it won't go OTS, but I'm studying that radar loop gif, and it's definitely sketching me out. You see a huge air mass in the Atlantic pushing against the hurricane, pressing it in place, while the fierce trough on the western side is ripping northward like a fountain. It seems like if the Hurricane gets caught in that, it will shoot up right in to the Carolinas.

It looks like it's moving NW at the moment.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll

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