What is Gruden's plan if he doesn't believe in Robert or Kirk?

[ZRagone]

First, thanks for establishing this isn't a "Robert vs Kirk" thread. I'm going to treat it in that fashion as well. I'm going into this assuming Gruden doesn't believe either player is likely to be "the guy" long term.

Second, I'm going to assume that Gruden is not a complete and utter idiot, and thus doesn't believe Colt McCoy is likely to be "the guy" long term either.

So, what's the plan?

Well, let's take this logically. If you don't have anyone on the roster you think can be "the guy" long term, then the first thing you do is see if you can get "the guy". How? Well, only two ways...draft and FA.

Let's look at the DRAFT first...

There are two concensus potential "franchise" guys; Winston and Mariota. However, we don't have the 1st or 2nd pick, and the teams that do actually need QBs this time.

So then the question is whether or not Gruden feels a guy he can grab in the early second, lke a Brett Hundley, can be "the guy". Hard to say. For the purposes of this, I'm going to assume even if we take someone in the 2nd it's not likely viewed as the definite "franchise" guy".

So if Gruden can't find the player he thinks could be "the guy" long term in the draft, we then have to look at FREE AGENCY.

The picking's here are slim as well. Jake Locker was a high pick thought to have talent, but hasn't been able to stay healthy in Tennessee. Mark Sanchez led his team to some championship games, and yet still looks like the turnover machine of his later jets years. Brian Hoyer had a pretty decent year early on, but ultimatley got benched for an out of his depth Johnny Football.

Do any of those guys look more likely to turn into "The guy" long term for this team than the two we have under contract? I don't think so.

- - - -

So where does that leave us? With the notion that Gruden is unlikely to find someone who he thinks will be "the guy" long term this year unless there's a 2nd round prospect he falls in love with.

Which to me means the path forward is simple if you're Gruden, with basically two legitimate options:

Option 1

You spend free agency and the draft focused on improving things other than QB. You try to build up the rest of the team as best as you can and stock the cupboard.

You resign Colt McCoy. You also either grab a young FA QB, a UDFA, or a late round QB that you simply think has some untapped potential and may be a good surprising project. You keep Cousins and Griffin because both are relatively cheap options on their final year of their contract, so it makes no sense to cut either.

You roll into camp without a defined pecking order with McCoy, Griffin, Cousins, and QB X. And you let the competition begin and let it shake out however it may.

You go into that season hopefully with an improved team around whichever QB is playing. One of those guys either improves themselves in Gruden's eyes and shows they could be "the guy" long term, or you go into the 2016 draft with a mid-first round pick and grab "your guy" at QB that will be coming into a more developed team.

Option 2

Gruden falls in love with a guy that he can grab in the second, like Hundley. You spend the rest trying to find upgraded starters and depth.

You trade Robert Griffin for whatever you can possibly get. You keep Cousins to compete along with resigning McCoy. You make it an "open competition" in Camp, with the hope that the 2nd rounder either takes it and runs or shows you enough that he can become the starter part way through the season.

- - - -

To me, those are the two options, and it completely hinges on whether or not our player evaluators, and Gruden, feel that a guy they can get in the 2nd or later can be "the guy" long term. If the answer is yes, then you have to get Griffin off this team, and make that move IF you're seemingly committed to sticking the Gruden regime out.

If that guy isn't there, you build the rest of the team and you hope that Robert or Kirk either rise up on their final contract year or they wash out and you are in a better position as a team to allow a young QB to grow in 2016.

[Rufus T Firefly]

[HAILSKINSNYC]

He figured out that we have three backup QB's on our roster.  At the start of the season, most fans thought we had at least 2 starting ones.

 

I figured out that we have a 2nd rate coach

[veteranskinsfan]

I am trying to be positive going into the post season.  Last year at this time who would have thought that Jackson would fall into our lap from the Eagles.  Maybe there is a quarterback on another team that will not re-sign with their existing team and some how he will fall into our lap either in a trade or via free agency.

[Rufus T Firefly]

I am trying to be positive going into the post season.  Last year at this time who would have thought that Jackson would fall into our lap from the Eagles.  Maybe there is a quarterback on another team that will not re-sign with their existing team and some how he will fall into our lap either in a trade or via free agency.

LOL

[JoeSkins]

I am trying to be positive going into the post season.  Last year at this time who would have thought that Jackson would fall into our lap from the Eagles.  Maybe there is a quarterback on another team that will not re-sign with their existing team and some how he will fall into our lap either in a trade or via free agency.

This just in: anonymous tipsters (who are definitely not from the DC area) say that Aaron Rodgers was involved in gang activity with Desean Jackson at Cal.

[HtownRocks111]

the title of this thread should be....."what is Gruden's plan?"     forget the QB.....name one good thing Gruden did this year.

  Don't be too critical.  You have to remember what was given to him when he got hired.  We have an owner who is pushing the RGIII issue... under Gruden what we have learned is that Haslett has to go, our Oline is not capable of giving any QB a chance to succeed (replace RGIII with Brady, Manning, Rogers ect) and they will do poorly as well.  We may have seen now that the QB of the future is NOT on the roster, and that no matter the talent around the offense, everyone is effected by the Oline.

 

It all starts there.  Pierre Garcon as a SHELL OF HIMSELF and even Djax got pissed every single game at the shoddy QB/Oline play.  With no fear of a passing attack, defenses zeroed in on Alfred Morris who still had a decent season.  We also have seen that our defensive line needs more youth and athletisism.  Zero inside pressure put strain on your DBs .  At the end of the year, I think 4-12 is over rating the talent on our team. 

 

ACES - Alfred Morris, Darrel Young, Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Trent Williams, Ryan Kerrigan, Keenan Robinson, Tress Way

 

Promising - David Amerson, Breshad Breeland, Kai Forbath

 

Could break through in 2015 - RGIII, Kirk Cousins, Trent Murphy, Ryan Grant, Jason Hatcher, Andre Roberts

 

Everyone else should be backups and nothing more.

[Wrong Direction]

Whatever his plan, it better not be focused on more short term fixes in an attempt to win next year. This team shouldn't pay another Jason Hatcher for a long time. We need a re-allocation of resources focused on establishing a physical presence which allows us to play down hill on both sides of the ball. You only go QB if you think an excellent QB answer is sitting there staring you in the face because the truth is that any young QB would struggle with this team around him. In any other circumstance, you focus on establishing team identity. Defining what we'll be in 2-3 years. Getting the coaches to get us there. Working very hard in the offseason and focusing on football. Here are the priorities as I see them.

 

 

#1: Fire Adam Schefter's leakers. They undermine every position of authority in this organization. Some have outed who they probably are. Fire them.

 

#2: Cut or trade RG3. It'll hurt, but it's necessary. Even if he's a good guy, he's a divisive cancer to this team and he clearly doesn't have the natural QB talent that we all hoped. We need to part ways and wish him the best moving forward. 

 

#3: Let Gruden hire his staff. New OL coach. New DC. Get the right guys, establish a vision and expectations for getting there.

 

#4: Trade Desean Jackson for a 2nd round pick or a very good offensive lineman. He sells jerseys and makes big plays, but he's a malcontent on a team that needs to become a family, and he's about to get paid big money in a contract that will almost certainly pay him while his #1 asset (speed) declines. I love the play making ability, but we need to be smart enough not to pay big money for declining assets who divide the locker room, and that's exactly what DJ will be in 2-3 years when we'll hopefully be good again. 

 

#5: Cut dead-ish cap weight. We need to look at our big cap hits and see where we can save. This is, of course, an annual priority. For this year, cutting (or not resigning) Orakpo, Bowen, RG3 and Jackson totally changes our cap outlook moving forward. We need to pay the right guys, and not pay the wrong guys. 

 

#6: Pay the right guys. Pay Robinson. Pay Kerrigan. Pay Williams, if we can. If not, see what he's worth on the trade market. If they're good and young, we need to lock them up.

 

#7: Add OL. This team has a grab bag of needs, but our priority (IMO) should be an excellent OL. I'm not reacting to our sack rate as much as I'm saying this organization needs to make OL our #1 strategic priority. It should ALWAYS be our first coaching/personnel check box in every offseason. It just so happens that it's a crisis this offseason.

 

#8: For the same reason as #7, we need to get the right 3rd down back. You know, a guy who can block and catch. Our backs and TEs were just as bad as our OL at protecting the QB this year. For a low cost, we can fix this problem. It should be a priority. If we weren't so gun shy, we'd call Ray Rice and offer the old vet min + incentives contract. I'm sure there are others who can be very good without creating a media firestorm, so let's focus on them. Whatever the case, Roy Helu should not be a Redskin next year.  

 

#9: Defensive personnel. We need 3 guys in the secondary, but I personally would make this priority lower than OL in terms of draft/FA needs. Whatever the personnel plan, my 3 top priorities would be OL. So, let’s assume we sign Iupati (or any other studish starter). If so, I say we still need at least 2 more high quality guys either through FA or in our first 2 picks of the draft.

 

#10: Make this offseason about identifying and executing our planned identity. Jay Gruden needs to know what we are and in every acquisition, offseason workout plan, mini-camp, training camp, coaches meeting and player meeting, the Skins need to accentuate that identity. The front office and coaches need to be on board and need to hold the players accountable. 

[HAILSKINSNYC]

Any owner who traded 3 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for a QB would push for that QB to play...especially a QB who has shown he can play.

[HtownRocks111]

Any owner who traded 3 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for a QB would push for that QB to play...especially a QB who has shown he can play.

 

If Dan feels this way he shouldn't be looking for a coach, but rather a puppet.  Gruden said he just wants to find a QB who wins games. Until RG3 shows he can do that, we have to keep our eyes open for improvements at that position.  It's not what he cost us, but what's he worth to us?

[HAILSKINSNYC]

If Dan feels this way he shouldn't be looking for a coach, but rather a puppet.  Gruden said he just wants to find a QB who wins games. Until RG3 shows he can do that, we have to keep our eyes open for improvements at that position.  It's not what he cost us, but what's he worth to us?

 

RG3 has shown he can win games.....what has Gruden shown us?

[Probos]

Any owner who traded 3 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for a QB would push for that QB to play...especially a QB who has shown he can play.

 

When has he shown he can play?  And don't use the 2012 season as an example.  That was a smoke and mirrors offense proven to be unsustainable.  It's over and done.

 

I'm not sure Jay knows what his plan is exactly.  It seems at this point he's being forced with work with Robert moving forward into next year.  Improving the Oline could help RG3's development, but, probably not.  What they do with Kirk and Colt,...who knows.

 

I'm in the "I'm not sure about Gruden" and "Lost faith in RG3" camp after this season.  I want to give Jay the benefit of the doubt some because he was undermined before he even started (ie, not being able to pick his staff), but hard to ignore the mis-steps he made this year.  Even for a rookie HC.  He just looked so overwhelmed at this,....

 

It's hard for me to see RG3 developing into the kind of QB required to play in the NFL even as a game manager. 

 

Outside of firing Bruce Allen blowing this ****e pile up I can't see anythiing positive for this team in the near term future.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

How's about we all admit the truth that we are probably gonna suck just as hard in 2015. So just get started on the rebuild of the O-Line and defense and throw any of the 3 buffoons out there. Who the hell cares? We are looking at 3-4 wins again.

 

Then find your QB in 2016.

 

It's ok to rebuild 

[darrelgreenie]

So first we have to assume a few things.

 

1) Gruden is not a fan of any of the three QB's currently on the roster

 

2) Snyder at least intends to give Gruden the five years in his contract

 

3) Gruden isn't going to modify the offense going forward

Going along with these assumptions (i don't agree with them btw)

Jay's plan would have be to go forward with McCoy sign a FA QB and draft a mid-late round developmental QB.

Kinda stark reality when you look at.

My thought is that Jay will move forward with Kirk and Colt in an open competition and draft a mid-late round QB to develop like Mannion.

Still kinda stark when you look at the reality of the position without after they get rid of Griffin.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

RG3 has shown he can win games.....what has Gruden shown us?

 

So you're saying that we should bring in Tebow and Vince Young? Lol

[ZRagone]

Gruden has 4 years left on his contract. Without a clear value in a replacement, it's stupid for Snyder to cut bait.

Griffin has 1 year left on his contract. Without a clear value in a replacement, it's stupid for the team to cut bait.

Ditto for Cousins.

The reality is Cousins and Griffin are both here next year under relatively cheap contracts. To get rid of EITHER of them you have to ask:

1. How much better or worse is the person who you're going to replace them with?

2. Is who you get to replace them going to cost more of less?

3. Is the benefit from getting rid of them worth more than the benefit of keeping them.

If you think EITHER guy has a legitimate shot at starting next year, and if you think EITHER guy has the potential to develop into a legitimate QB (not whether or not they will, but whether you think they feasible COULD), then I just don't see a reason to get rid of either of them for the likely value we're going to get.

Both QB's have had their value absolutely destroyed this season in terms of trade bait. The potential that Kirk Cousins or Robert Griffin, with an extra year in the system and an upgraded team around them, COULD develop into being a legitimate starter for this team...to me...is greater than the realistic "potential" of an average 6th or 7th rounder.

I see no value in a likely trade of Cousins or Griffin if it's for something like a 6th or 7th rounder at this point. I don't see anyone we bring in off the free agent crop being a significant improvement over either of them.

The only potential value for cutting/trading either would be, in my eyes:

1. Cousins, if Gruden feels he shouldn't even compete for the starting spot, is worth getting rid of in that case to stop the noise. If Gruden see's him as nothing more than a #3 then there's better options for a quiet #3.

2. Griffin, if Gruden falls in love with a late 1st/2nd round QB that he thinks can be the "future". You can't get to the "future" with the "past" still lingering around.

Other than those two scenarios, I just don't believe the positives outweigh the negatives in moving on from either cheap, under contract, player.

-edit-

I *really* wish people would stop making procolomations as if they're outright fact, or acting like it is in any way a legitimate discussion/debate tactic to just declare by fiat what people can or cannot believe/use/find important. The ego of some posters are *ridiculous*.

The only thing worse than this in my eyes are the ridiculous and laughable notions that people who disagree with someone regarding a Player automatically cares about the player and not the team...because apparently it's impossible for two people to have differing views on whether or not sticking with/moving fon from a particular player is good or bad for the team. :roll:

[War Paint]

Well, if Gruden doesn't believe Robert or Kirk is the guy, maybe we try to trade them, then bring in a vet and use a mid-round pick on a QB like Garret Grayson.

[leesburgvaskinsfan]

Based on what I see in Gruden, I don't think he's the answer for us. You just don't throw your players by name under the bus. I see him more as between Zorn and Norv. Nothing more. I'm just not impressed how he handles himself. Given that, I don't think we have any better options going into next season.

Hopefully, AJ Smith takes a bigger role as a GM and we get more talent evaluation help in the front office. I like Bruce Allen as our Chief Marketer. That's about it for Bruce. I love what he brings in tradition and his knack for sparking the fan base but I just don't see what he brings to make our team better.

I'd like to see Gruden's plan become more of a smash mouth team. To establish this vision and identity, make the first priority to fix our awful OL. OT Brandon Scherff of Iowa is mocked to us at number five. He can RT, G and LT. That pick could help us in many ways if this kid is anywhere near as advertised. It would be nice to have a pocket to throw from and running lanes to run in. Romo had all day yesterday to make a play and it made me sick.

RGIII needs to come back after a thorough self assessment and look in the mirror during the off-season. Could he look at film of Brady, PManning, Rodgers and Brees to learn tendencies? He shows flashes of his old self but just doesn't show consistency and it's well documented that he holds the ball too long. His mechanics have gotten worse. I love the guy and and I think with the right coaching he could regain some of his 2012 magic. Could we adapt our offense more to his strengths while grooming him to be a pocket passer?

We need a fresh start on defense starting at the DC. Can we at least put our players in a 4-3, if that's where their strengths are?

Our secondary is awful but our DL has to be next to create pressure on QBs and stuff RBs. If we can get some kind of a pass rush and pressure up front, that helps our secondary big time.

Obviously we need help at safety and linebacker.

ST is a work in progress but we did get a little better than last year (not saying much). I'm not sure what we could do there but continue to emphasize blocking, tackling and eliminating dumb penalties.

It's going to be a long off-season....

Hail!

[nemocystem]

Haha to the Joker meme. Was gonna say his plan seems to be:

"I...juh..hmmm...i dunno...****!"

Super tough position we are in. Here's where I agree with KC when he basically says one of them must go. It's a distraction for one. Secondly, Gruden needs yo pick one guy & try to develop him next year & unless we show some actual signs of life, he should ride that buggy till the wheels fall off. Way i see it...we are still 2-3 years from breathing...& that's modest. Unless there's a guy out there you absolutely believe in...don't even bother. The distraction alone will kill whoever you are trying to groom.

If it's KC, trade Robert...if it's Robert, then trade KC...but for the love of G_d do not keep both going into camp.& on the off chance you land Mariota or Winston & you believe he's the future...then you gotta let both go, don't you?

[FuriousD]

I think the answer to the OP's question is Colt McCoy,... at least until further notice.  Clearly Gruden has some regard for him considering he's the only QB on the roster brought in under his watch. He looks and sounds like the guy Gruden likes most out of the three and would have still been playing (one supposes) were it not for the injury. I like the kid.  I just wish he had a better arm

[Voice_of_Reason]

Great thread. 

 

I'm going to make a statement. Call it what you want, assumption, or otherwise:

 

"There is no System or QB that will work with the current group of Offensive Personnel."

 

Here's why:

1. The OL is built for a zone-stretch running style, and struggles with drop-back pass protection and power running.

2. The WR/TE group suck at the zone-stretch running style, and are more capable in a traditional WCO attack.

3. The RB group we have is not good at picking up blitzes or getting out in routes.

4. The QBs all had varying degrees of success getting the ball out of their hands quickly and accurately.  

 

The QBs are all adversley affected by this.  There's a desire to run the ball, and Gruden ran A LOT on first down, but ended up in 2nd and long most of the time.

 

This lead to asking the OL to do something it's not real good at, which is anchor and pass protect.  This lead to pressure, and some skittish QBs.  

 

So, what I would do with the QB situation is directly correlated to what I would do with everybody else.  

 

1. I leave the WR position alone, because it contains the one A-grade player on offense that you can trust in DJax. Garcon is a good #2, and Grant should be fine as a #2.  Whoever else they sign as #4/#5 I'm not going to worry about.

 

2. The TE group is bad.  Reed has some potential, but can't block anything. He's a good receiver.  But nothing else.  Paul is an average (at best) receiver.  Logan used to be a good blocker, but he's not on the field a lot.  I'd dump Paul and Paulson and get 2 new TEs who can block.

 

3. OL. I'm going to assume that with the WRs we've got, we're going to go with a more traditional WCO style offense.  Need to get guys who can protect in the drop back game and power run-block.  Trent can do anything.  Kory L. might have been our best OL this year.  We need to figure out if Long is going to be able to start. You build your team through the middle rounds of the draft.  He's a 3rd rounder. Needs to produce in year 2.  Moses would be an upgrade at RT IF he can actually play RT and recovers from injury.  Again, if he can't, you've wasted a 3rd rounder on OL again.  That would be 2 wasted 3rd round OL picks in 3 years (Ribbs in 2012, Moses in 2014.) You build through the middle of the draft.  Means that you can't miss on 3rd round picks consistently. Definitely need 1 more Guard, maybe 2, and a challenge for Compton at RT.  But need to build a line that can pass protect in place, and run a power scheme.

 

4. QB. (The point of the thread.)

a. Bring back Griffin and Cousins.  Only because they are under contract, and you're not even going to get a ham sandwich for either one. 

b. DO NOT draft a guy in the first 5 rounds.  You've got enough holes elsewhere, fill those first.

c. I'd sign a guy that Gruden has worked with previously in Cincy and knows the offense.  Gruden has GOT to have a guy out there like Grossman.  Somebody who already knows his offense.

d. Possible option: If the Bengals lose again in the first round, and they've decided they're done with Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton, then I'd make a reasonable trade for Dalton. 4th or 5th round pick + a player.  Not because Dalton is great or will lead anybody to the promise land, but he'll be an immediate upgrade to what they have.  It's at least somebody who you don't have to teach an offense to at this point.  

 

Fix the rest of the offensive positions, make the roster harmonious, see if Griffin or Cousins can grab the job and run with it, and then go from there.  If Dalton is available for a ham sammy after another Playoff loss, then that's option B.  But I'd still go after a franchise QB down the road.

[profusion]

"What is Gruden's plan if he doesn't believe in RG3 or KC" and "what should be Gruden's plan" are two entirely different questions. The answer to the first question probably depends on the level of 'non-belief':

 

1a. mild non-belief = make due with whoever sucks the least in camp until the OL and defense are built back up to professional standards.

 

1b. mild non-belief = favor RG3 to keep the meddlesome owner happy and keep job until said owner can be convinced that a complete change is necessary.

 

2. extreme non-belief = cut/trade both of them and sign some journeyman to back up Colt, and hope that crazy 5-year contract keeps meddlesome owner at bay for a couple more years.

[paloosa]

IMHO, it isn't about the players, coaches, and GM themselves but about the right people in the right places. The one factor you can't change is the owner no matter how much you want him to be gone. Snyder needs to change himself and do what is right for business and not his friendships. If he is more interested in being liked by his coaches, GM, and players then he is not ever going to suceed as an owner in the NFL. I don't think that we have a QB issue that is bad because the real issues aren't at QB but along the O-Line. This so similar to a lot of QB's that have been here that developed the same bad habits these guys have. Remember when Patrick Ramsey was drafted and he was a big strong QB but he was never well protected because he played under Spurrier who didn't believe in extra protection. The same with Jason Campbell when he was here he got beat up because of lack of protection. When you don't have time to throw from the pocket or have a pocket to throw from then a QB will start looking for avenues to escape or places to throw that he normally wouldn't throw to.

RGIII never had a playbook in college so he never had to learn any playbook so it would take him a little time to readjust to a new system. The first year he was in the league they used the read option and it was successful just like the Spurrier system until they figured it out. When Griffin got hurt and he came back too early last year he wanted to be more of a pocket passer so no read option plays were employed. That led to another disasterous year and more injuries. Then this year after relieving Shanahan of his coaching duties and they gave the nod to RGIII as the starter he still looked the same as the year before. Lost and confused because he was to learn a new system and play from the pocket like he wanted. So the struggles he had this year are not all his fault nor is it with any of the QB's. The QB has to have confidence in the O-Line otherwise they are going to get "happy feet" in the pocket and bad habits will develop.  

I feel Gruden isn't tied to anyone of these QB's because he never drafted any of them but RGIII seems to be at the bottom of his list because I feel RGIII felt like he was doing everything right and that none of the things that Gruden or anyone else was saying applied to him. He had the blessing and keys to the city. So now that he has been benched twice and knows this could turn ugly if he doesn't do everything he can to change himself he could be a bench rider and eventually another guy no one will take a chance on. I feel Gruden will have a competition between whomever is still here and he will start the best player that gives them the best opportunity to win. I believe that will be RGIII because he has something to prove again.

[Fergasun]

NFL Options (not in order) : Cutler, Foles, D. Anderson, Glennon, Hoyer, Sanchez, Garrapola (NE), Mallett, Keenum...

College options: Winston, Hundley, ???

It aint pretty - - can see why we may be in for one more year of this QB headache.

[nick_sanchize]

FTR, I love the idea and hope this thread stays objective and away from the Kirk vs. RG3 arguments. 

 

I honestly think we're in a tough position, no matter what happens at GM, HC, DC, OC, etc. 

 

1. We're not in position to get either of the two top QB prospects (which I personally wouldn't want anyway).

2. The FA QB market is weak.

3. Too many other holes need addressed (OL, S, DL) immediately.

 

I'd have to say that at least for 2015, we need to go with an upgraded offensive line and an open QB competition in camp.  Best man wins. If none of them pull away in '15 and show to be worth keeping in '16, then we look at QB as the #1 target in '16 (Gruden's third year).  The FA class that year is better than this year.  I don't know much about the draft class so one can only hope the '16 QB draft class will be better than this years.

 

At least that's what I would do if I were GM for a day (or year, or two).

I agree,and also fix the defense. Defense by itself can win you some games when the offense sucks