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Picks, Pats, and Pardons Week 8


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Season: 64-41-1

Last Week: 10-5

Redskins: 5-1

ATS: 11-17 (Last Week: 1-3)

Lock: 4-3

Another solid week straight up, correctly calling the Chiefs upset in San Diego and narrowly missing the Saints in Detroit. Still struggling ATS, although I have gotten into a groove on the locks, hitting those for three straight weeks.

San Diego at Denver: These Thursday games are just too wacky; I'm not quite sure what to expect week to week. But if I were to venture a guess, I don't think a short week to prepare for Manning and friends in their house is a good thing.

Broncos 31, Chargers 21

Detroit vs. Atlanta (London): Not quite sure how to factor London into the equation here, so I won't. The Falcons look terrible right now and their offensive line is in absolute shambles. They also may boast the worst defense in the league. Simply not a very good team.

Lions 27, Falcons 20

Minnesota at Tampa Bay: Through six games the Bucs have found themselves down 35-0 in the second quarter on TWO occasions. Clearly, Lovie Smith is having a difficult time implementing his defensive system. Luckily, they get one of the least explosive offenses in the league on Sunday. The game may not be blacked out in Tampa, but it probably should be.

Bucs 22, Vikings 20

Chicago at New England: Bears have been a massive disappointment this year, but they've been excellent on the road. But with the Pats catching extra rest leading up to this one, I don't see Chicago getting the upset here.

Patriots 30, Bears 27

St. Louis at Kansas City: Very impressive effort by the Rams last week to scratch and claw their way to the upset over Seattle. But it took everything they had and it took every trick in the book. I don't see them being able to replicate that effort or energy again this week. I can see the Chiefs going on a little run here.

Chiefs 24, Rams 16

Seattle at Carolina: This is an uncomfortable game here. On one had I want to say that after back to back losses the Seahawks will come out angry and motivated this week and ensure they go home with a W. But that sort of simplistic approach dismisses some very real issues they are dealing with, which include an absence of talent on offense. Percy Harvin may have been too much of a headache to bear, but he did give them an element of explosion that they now lack. My gut tells me maybe we see a third straight upset, but Carolina's defense was so horrible last week that I just can't put that on paper.

Seahawks 27, Panthers 23

Buffalo at New York Jets: The Harvin trade is a real head-scratcher for me as I'm just not sure what it accomplishes for New York. Having said that, with that entire staff in desperation mode, I suppose it can't hurt in the short term. Bills have pulled off two miracles in the past three weeks; I think things even out on Sunday.

Jets 20, Bills 17

Miami at Jacksonville: Their win in Chicago was possibly a turning point for the Dolphins season and maybe even for this regime. They can erase all of that good by slipping up against the in-state "rivals," but I see them escaping with a close win.

Dolphins 24, Jaguars 20

Houston at Tennessee: The Texans are a popular pick this among the betting crowd, but I am a little less convinced. Ryan Fitzpatrick is holding the offense back and the defense outside of Watt is nothing special at all. The Titans are pretty dreadful, so I am going to follow the herd and pick Houston, but I am much less confident than the masses.

Texans 23, Titans 20

Baltimore at Cincinnati: What the hell was that Cincy? Good grief, the Bengals have absolutely crapped themselves after the impressive 3-0 start. Three straight weeks their defense has been swiss cheese; and their offense puts up a fat ole' goose egg in Indy. The Ravens, on the other hand are rolling into Cincy off of two straight dominating wins. This is a coin toss game to me.

Bengals 22, Ravens 21

Philadelphia at Arizona: Part of the reason Arizona is a "quiet" 5-1 is because they have piled up their wins against lesser competition. Certainly not a knock against them as Bruce Arians is absolutely proving to be the right man for this job. But the Eagles aren't the Redskins or Raiders and coming off a bye I expect to see an Eagles attack that the Cardinals are unable to keep pace with.

Eagles 34, Cardinals 27

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: It's funny, I picked the Colts to win the Super Bowl and yet I continue to doubt them and pick against them most weeks. The Steelers are a shaky 4-3, but I have a feeling they find a way this week. My hypocrisy continues...

Steelers 26, Colts 24

Oakland at Cleveland: That was sooooo Browns last week in Jacksonville. Talk about being unable to handle prosperity.... I do see Cleveland bouncing back this week, but that Jax game may loom large for them down the road.

Browns 24, Raiders 17

Green Bay at New Orleans: I admit, I'm a sucker. And I always have been, and appears always will be, a sucker for a desperate team playing at home over a team with less riding on the game. The Saints season hangs in the balance and recent history tells me that if the Saints need a win and are in the dome, to roll with the home team.

Saints 33, Packers 29

Washington at Dallas: Perhaps the Redskins catch the Cowboys napping a bit in this spot, but even if they do, I have no idea how their back seven is going to be able to handle the Cowboys passing game. Dez, Williams, and Witten should have big nights even if they are just going through the motions. At some point I do think the Dallas defense gets exposed, but I don't think Colt McCoy or the Redskins are the team that will do the exposing.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 20

Against the Spread (lock listed first):

1. Eagles (+2.5) vs. Cardinals

2. Saints (-2) vs. Packers

3. Bears (+6) vs. Patriots

4. Jets (-3) vs. Bills

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I will go out on a limb a bit here but I forsee a successful first game for McCoy. Nearly two years between starts will have an over achieving Dallas D guessing. I don't think its out of the realm of possibility that we score close to 30. If that's the case this could come down to a field goal.

Dallas 28

skins 31

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