Stefanskins Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 The only issue here is that you are betting against an amazing trend-- one that was broken last week. Through the Cowboys-Texans game this year I believe it was something like 19 of 22 games at Jerryworld had been covered by the underdog. Dallas almost never covers at home when favored and almost always covers at home when an underdog like they did this year against the Saints. They broke that last week by covering against the Giants. And now that Dallas is looks sharper and more consistent maybe they will start covering more. I think the Redskins are actually better than their record. They have losses against quality teams and have suffered some major QB blunders which are hard to overcome. Some bad injury lick as well. I'd say the Skins are a tad undervalued right now as far as betting goes. They had some lead beats" in games they had covered and then lost in last 30 seconds. All that being said, this looks like a stay away game for me. Vegas could be baiting people to take the Skins or it could go the way of recent trends with the underdog having the upper hand. Colt is a little bit of a wild card as well. And will Dallas maybe take this game lightly? Gun to my head, I'd take Dallas, but I don't see this as a strong game to wager on. Yes that seems fair... oh well too late for me Yeah, I think we need to stop with the "close division game" stuff. While it may feel like they are normally close games, the Thursday night game against the Giants, the Monday night massacre against the Eagles, etc. pretty much disprove that theory. If the Skins really stink and are playing under the lights it can easily be a blowout, and thats just the situation we have this week. To conclude, don't take the Skins. If for some reason they do win - you'll be happy enough that they won. If they lose big and you lose money - devastating. lol probably a sane argument... I might have f'd up... probably did.. but I haven't bet on my Skins in almost 20 years... gonna be thrilling... I hope We/ I need this win!! I'm going to start betting against the Skins. At this point I'd be glad to pay for a win. If we lose at least I'm better off financially. I pondered this too This You should add lesson 4) - When pts seem to be too much, they are usually not enough. Vegas makes the occasional blunder but this one screams take the pukes and lay the lumber. (Although I hope I am wrong !!) Yep, that's true too. Ya'll are not making me feel any better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 You'd be stupid not to bet. Put up the farm and you'll have two farms. It's a lock baby... a LOCK!!! Seriously, if you don't bet your life savings, house, and kids' college funds on this one, you are a freaking idiot. EDIT: You don't want to be a freaking idiot, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 That's an awful lot of points, and is screaming to be teased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
War Paint Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 This could be a game where we get so destroyed, that it might lead to some significant changes come the bye week. Getting annihilated by the Cowboys on national TV might push Snyder over the edge. Hopefully if we get destroyed, Haslett is fired at the bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefanskins Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 You'd be stupid not to bet. Put up the farm and you'll have two farms. It's a lock baby... a LOCK!!! Seriously, if you don't bet your life savings, house, and kids' college funds on this one, you are a freaking idiot. EDIT: You don't want to be a freaking idiot, do you? I don't want to be... but to quote YHWH "I am what I am"... its kinda comforting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandre002 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Who is going to cover Dez Bryant? I think that's the biggest concern. I feel like we could end up being pretty good against the run, but we won't get to romoSUCKS (even once) and the passing game will make this a blow out. Edit: So yes, I think I would take it. Plus, its a primetime game. 10 points is actually pretty generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Absolutely. Don't bank your life savings, of course. Bet Tiny Tim, and work that ML too. It's a triple wild card. QB. McCoy, a bit unknown about the backup coming in, a week of reps. Our veteran with something to prove. Gruden obviously likes him. If not, RG3 may walk onto the field, and steal the show. Rope a Dope. Texas, hometown thing. Vegas doesn't know dick. From all reports RG3 has looked healthy, has he not? Like last year, we are not quite as bad as our record. We have only been blown out 1 time this year. That's almost like winning for us. Special teams have seemed a little less special lately. The X Factor, the rivalry. Haslett calls his better games against Dallas. And will stuff Murray. Book it. If there is one thing Haslett can do, is stuff a feature back. Bye bye new 100 yd record for Murray. No Murray means moar SucksRomoSucks. Make him beat us. Roll the corners up aggressively, and go for INTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustangSteve Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 That's an awful lot of points, and is screaming to be teased. No it's not, not against this team, this defense or a 3rd string QB starting. This game has blow out written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefanskins Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Who is going to cover Dez Bryant? I think that's the biggest concern. I feel like we could end up being pretty good against the run, but we won't get to romoSUCKS (even once) and the passing game will make this a blow out. Edit: So yes, I think I would take it. Plus, its a primetime game. 10 points is actually pretty generous. ok... I'm feeling better.. one thing is I don't think these cowboys wr don't like to be hit.. if anything I like the way our cbs come up n' lay the lumber... maybe a couple of good hits and they will start gettin alligator arms.. I wish we had Hall back just to cover Dez.. Hall is in that boys head for some reason.. and if Bowen comes back, I think we could generate some pressure on tonie.. Absolutely. Don't bank your life savings, of course. Bet Tiny Tim, and work that ML too. It's a triple wild card. QB. McCoy, a bit unknown about the backup coming in, a week of reps. Our veteran with something to prove. Gruden obviously likes him. If not, RG3 may walk onto the field, and steal the show. Rope a Dope. Texas, hometown thing. Vegas doesn't know dick. From all reports RG3 has looked healthy, has he not? Like last year, we are not quite as bad as our record. We have only been blown out 1 time this year. That's almost like winning for us. Special teams have seemed a little less special lately. The X Factor, the rivalry. Haslett calls his better games against Dallas. And will stuff Murray. Book it. If there is one thing Haslett can do, is stuff a feature back. Bye bye new 100 yd record for Murray. No Murray means moar SucksRomoSucks. Make him beat us. Roll the corners up aggressively, and go for INTs. Yes, that's what I'm talkin' bout!! HTTR!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdcskins Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 One thing I've learned - always take the points. There are better plays this week though. Eagles +3, Vikings +3, Texans -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwo40 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Didn't Dallas just cover 9.5 vs NYG? Yeah we're in tough shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain James Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Division games are always close. We rarely see a blowout unless the Skins lose to the vaGiants. But if I was down to my last dollar, I'd take the Turds. There's a special kind of suck for this 2014 Redskins team. Plus the turds offense should have no problems covering the 10 points. Hazlett is our defensive coordinator. The eagirls game a couple years back would like to talk to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefanskins Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 One thing I've learned - always take the points. There are better plays this week though. Eagles +3, Vikings +3, Texans -1. Eagles game - yes that's a good one, but I predict a four game skid for them, I can't bet against my prophecies... but that's surprising getting 3 Vikings getting 3 against Tampa looks good too and I'd have to agree on the Texans giving up 1... so yes all of those look solid... I will probably use those to hedge against me taking the Skins.. even though I still believe in our Skins!! Didn't Dallas just cover 9.5 vs NYG? Yeah we're in tough shape. Good Lord, I didn't even realize that...however, the gmen were injury riddled... of course we are too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The bigger they are, the harder they fall. **** Dallas. Sure their investments in the OL are paying dividends right now, but I have a feeling Hatcher and Baker are going to leave a skid mark on one of them. Dallas is a bit of a Cinderella and we can snap them back into a pumpkin as well as anyone. Worried about Dez? You were probably worried in recent games but then Hall took him out. Breeland is getting mentions as rookie of the week. All you need to stop Dez, is swagger. Stick on his hip, and he will start throwing punches. Haslett just needs to let the kid go. There is one thing to learn about gambling is, you will lose in the end anyways. You do it for fun. If you are doing it for fun, you may as well target the big pay day. St Louis just beat Seattle. Every damn week Vegas is exposed for not quite always knowing. Gruden is big on practice reps. Obsesses over them. Well, It's McCoy's turn. And clearly Gruden loves him some McCoy from what he has seen in the past. Vegas looks at McCoy and laughs. Keep laughing, because if he screws up, RG3 is jogging out. ML is off the board. They are concerned. As will be Dallas if they spot him. They remember 2012. Dress Aldrick for effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasefan31 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 People are WAY overreacting to the Cowboys beating the Seahawks. I mean, we had a chance at beating them with backups all over the field and the Rams beat them last week. Their wins include the Titans, Rams by 3, Texans by 3, and Giants who have been blown out several times this year. I understand they're on a roll and winning is better than losing, but come on now. It's the NFL, not college. The Cowboys have so many fan boys and Vegas is obviously trying to even out the betting since everyone wants to jump on their bandwagon. No doubt it's a smart buy at 10 points. That doesn't mean it's an automatic win, but still a smart buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voice_of_Reason Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I think that this is going to come down to the 'Skins offense and ST. The defense is going to give up ~27-34 points regardless. That's partly because the defense isn't really good, and partly because the Cowboys offense is very good. Shrug. Is what it is. So, the questions you have to ask yourself: 1. Are the 'Skins ST going to have a WTF moment again and give up points? 2. Can the 'Skins offense with Colt McCoy (I'm assuming Colt since Griffin hasn't practiced yet going to be able to score 17-24 points on MNF? I really don't know the answer. The answer SHOULD BE yes. But I'm not sure. I think if Gruden thinks that he's got to run the ball to try and keep the game close, they're going to lose by 30+. If they just come out and wing it, they'll probably still lose, but they'll get some points out of it, and it will be closer. Personally, I think they're going to (yet again) bang their heads against the wall with the running game and lose by 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boss_Hogg Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The eagirls game a couple years back would like to talk to you. Monday night massacre Can't believe I forgot about that one. We just suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckus Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Redskins in primetime playing the hottest team in the NFL on the road starting our 3rd string QB. You might want to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forehead Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 If I were a betting man, and I'm not, I'd lay a small amount of money on Washington to cover. Not win, but cover. For several reasons. 1. Double digit underdogs (I know, 9.5, but still) aren't a bad bet. Looking around at various sites, that seems to be something covered somewhere in the mid-high 50% range. I won't usually take the favorite in these situations unless they have clear advantages everywhere. 2. Dallas is averaging 28 points per game, which is pretty damn good. They've beaten teams with good defenses, like Seattle and Houston. They've played a few teams that aren't great. For instance, they beat Tennessee 26-10. They beat the Rams 34-31, and it isn't as if the Rams have world beaters at QB or the skill positions. They beat the Saints at their own game. So keep this in mind as we look at Washington... 3. We've averaged 21.6 points per game while giving up 26. That doesn't seem terrible, and I know people will immediately say to throw out Jacksonville because they suck, but I'd counter with throwing out the Giants because we played them on short rest after a war with Philly, or take out the last seven points against AZ because of the Pick-6 with a minute to go, etc. It evens out. My point is this, despite everyone talking about how great Dallas's offense is, and how bad we are, we're averaging 6.4 points per game less than they are. The spread is 9.5. 4. Dallas is allowing 21 points per game, their deviation between offense and defense is an exact 7 ppg. They'll allow some points. And I'm not arguing that we'll win here, only that we have to stay within 9-10. 5. Romo has only thrown for more than 300 yards once so far. Dallas is clearly becoming more reliant on Murray. More running means longer drives, more clock, less scoring chances. He's averaging 2 TD's a game, and I'm sure he'll get those this week. Bryant will almost surely have one of them, if not both. Murray will probably get a TD himself. Bailey will kick a few field goals. They'll get their 27-30 points. 6. So the question is, can we get 18-21 points against them? We're averaging that much despite Kirk Cousins basically wearing the other teams jersey for half his games, despite having three different QB's play for us already, despite an O-Line that may as well not exist on the right side. We haven't run Morris enough. Lost in this surge, people seem to forget that Dallas's defense was supposed to suck chunks historically. They haven't, but they still aren't "good." Again, they're giving up 21 PPG. They've has QB's throw on them...hell, Austin Davis went over 300 with three TD's against their secondary. Arian Foster tore them up on the ground in the Houston game. You can get yards on them. 7. Colt McCoy is no world beater, we know that. But the skill guys are fast. Hell, you saw the short pass to Garcon and what it turned into. McCoy doesn't have to go deep, he just has to manage the game and we need to let Morris run a bunch. That translates into more clock chewing, and less chances for them to score. So yeah, I'd lay a small amount. Romo throws for two, Murray takes one to the house, Bailey kicks three field goals. They get 30, right in line with their usual. On our side, their defense stiffens up enough to keep us out, but we'll get a catch and run TD, Morris will get one, and you know what, we'll stall a bunch around the 30. Three field goals of our own. 30-23 Dallas. I won't delude myself in to thinking we have much of a shot in this game, but a 9.5 point cover...put me down for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigmuss1 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I already laid the points with Dallas, this will be the easiest cover of the year. If not, I'll happily lose my wager for a W over the Cowboys. BUT, it's Monday night, prime time, we NEVER show up. Lay the points with Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefanskins Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 If I were a betting man, and I'm not, I'd lay a small amount of money on Washington to cover. Not win, but cover. For several reasons. 1. Double digit underdogs (I know, 9.5, but still) aren't a bad bet. Looking around at various sites, that seems to be something covered somewhere in the mid-high 50% range. I won't usually take the favorite in these situations unless they have clear advantages everywhere. 2. Dallas is averaging 28 points per game, which is pretty damn good. They've beaten teams with good defenses, like Seattle and Houston. They've played a few teams that aren't great. For instance, they beat Tennessee 26-10. They beat the Rams 34-31, and it isn't as if the Rams have world beaters at QB or the skill positions. They beat the Saints at their own game. So keep this in mind as we look at Washington... 3. We've averaged 21.6 points per game while giving up 26. That doesn't seem terrible, and I know people will immediately say to throw out Jacksonville because they suck, but I'd counter with throwing out the Giants because we played them on short rest after a war with Philly, or take out the last seven points against AZ because of the Pick-6 with a minute to go, etc. It evens out. My point is this, despite everyone talking about how great Dallas's offense is, and how bad we are, we're averaging 6.4 points per game less than they are. The spread is 9.5. 4. Dallas is allowing 21 points per game, their deviation between offense and defense is an exact 7 ppg. They'll allow some points. And I'm not arguing that we'll win here, only that we have to stay within 9-10. 5. romoSUCKS has only thrown for more than 300 yards once so far. Dallas is clearly becoming more reliant on Murray. More running means longer drives, more clock, less scoring chances. He's averaging 2 TD's a game, and I'm sure he'll get those this week. Bryant will almost surely have one of them, if not both. Murray will probably get a TD himself. Bailey will kick a few field goals. They'll get their 27-30 points. 6. So the question is, can we get 18-21 points against them? We're averaging that much despite Kirk Cousins basically wearing the other teams jersey for half his games, despite having three different QB's play for us already, despite an O-Line that may as well not exist on the right side. We haven't run Morris enough. Lost in this surge, people seem to forget that Dallas's defense was supposed to suck chunks historically. They haven't, but they still aren't "good." Again, they're giving up 21 PPG. They've has QB's throw on them...hell, Austin Davis went over 300 with three TD's against their secondary. Arian Foster tore them up on the ground in the Houston game. You can get yards on them. 7. Colt McCoy is no world beater, we know that. But the skill guys are fast. Hell, you saw the short pass to Garcon and what it turned into. McCoy doesn't have to go deep, he just has to manage the game and we need to let Morris run a bunch. That translates into more clock chewing, and less chances for them to score. So yeah, I'd lay a small amount. romoSUCKS throws for two, Murray takes one to the house, Bailey kicks three field goals. They get 30, right in line with their usual. On our side, their defense stiffens up enough to keep us out, but we'll get a catch and run TD, Morris will get one, and you know what, we'll stall a bunch around the 30. Three field goals of our own. 30-23 Dallas. I won't delude myself in to thinking we have much of a shot in this game, but a 9.5 point cover...put me down for that. That was a good read! Seems logical to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwo40 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 People are WAY overreacting to the Cowboys beating the Seahawks. I mean, we had a chance at beating them with backups all over the field and the Rams beat them last week. Their wins include the Titans, Rams by 3, Texans by 3, and Giants who have been blown out several times this year. I understand they're on a roll and winning is better than losing, but come on now. It's the NFL, not college. The Cowboys have so many fan boys and Vegas is obviously trying to even out the betting since everyone wants to jump on their bandwagon. No doubt it's a smart buy at 10 points. That doesn't mean it's an automatic win, but still a smart buy. Ummm...common opponents we are 1-3. we lost to the Texans, Seahawks, got blown out by the Giants - and barely beat the Titans. The Cowboys just beat the Giants last week by 10. Unless they suffer a massive hangover can't see it happening. And that's without factoring in this team's total vanishing act in primetime games...or our 3rd string QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefanskins Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Monday night massacre Can't believe I forgot about that one. We just suck Makes me want to puke just thinking about Vick n' Fat Albert Haynesworth just laying on the ground... watching... boy I was wrong about Haynesworth too.. and Deon, Stubblefield, Dan Wilkinson, Sean Gilbert, Jason Campbell, Archuletta, Brandon Loyd, Trotter, ARE, Jason Taylor, McNabb, Jeff George, Norv Turner, The Ol' Ball Coach, Jim Zorn..et cetera et cetera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emor09 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 We won't be able to pressure Romo and we won't be able to cover their receivers. It's basically going to be like practice for the Cowboys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefanskins Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 I think if Bowen is back we will be able to pressure with just the line... force Toni to throw a few Ints Can we get Rob Jackson back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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