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what's your F/A philosophy based on market value vs. need for 2014?


nemocystem

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Of course by now we've seen a ton of threads about the pending F/A period.  we have money, & if it were ours to spend...most of us would burn a hole in our pocket so fast our undies wouldn't survive.  

 

To be sure, the one thing most of us can agree on is that we need to fill many holes with varying degrees of improvement at these positions.  what we es-ers can't agree on most days, is what areas take the highest priority based on what we're going to need to spend.

 

Certainly, there's the Orakpo situation.  personally, i believe he will get resigned & i believe it will be somewhere close to, but under the maximum.  my hope is that it's closer to the lower end of the spectrum, but i think we're going to have to spend a little to keep him here.  so that would settle our bookends on D.  which would leave the WR's, DB's, pass-rush, & O-line...& this is where it gets tricky.

 

For my part...i'd like to start with an increasingly interesting prospect.  firstly...i'd like to say that i feel O-line is our biggest need at 1a, & 1b being the secondary; however, when i look at the market a couple of scenarios play out that work to our favor.  firstly, i'm intrigued by the idea of improving our pass-rush & then adding 1 key piece to the secondary.  with (assumed) more aggressive play-calling on D, having a deadly pass-rush could be the thing that helps the secondary flourish & can hide our ILB situation a bit.  if Greg Hardy isn't tagged...i have become more open to the idea of going hard after him & Byrd.  let D. Hall press-man, & let Amerson keep growing in the system.  

 

I realize that Hardy not being tagged or re-signed is closer to a longshot that most other options...but i feel that a move like that would enable us to focus on depth & competition at the other spots in the draft.  of course keeping in mind that we shouldn't be enamored with the concept of competing for a title next year.  originally i didn't like this idea, but it has grown on me considering the ways i've seen other experts explain how he could be utilized in a 3-4...yes...one that already has bookends.  

 

That said...my primary proposition would actually be to really shore up the secondary with Alterran Verrener, & Byrd.  we could let Hall or Verrener man the slot in rotation, & swap out Amerson/Hall in 2 WR sets.  then...if Haslett proves that he can generate a better rush with the players already on the roster simply by not being "handcuffed" then i think a vastly upgraded secondary should do a nice trick.

 

All things considered, i believe this to be our 2 best options for high-impact potential upgrades through F/A because a) in all likelihood...we would have to pay over the top for a LT & then move him to RT......a very risky proposition indeed. B) there simply isn't a F/A ILB or WR that is either worthy of paying for, or isn't too much money to have any real impact as there may be a Decker, or Maclin available...but at what cost?  c) with improved play-calling on offense & some (risky) good draft picks & some other middling F/A picks for competition...some of these areas can be shored up to at least a workable range.  i just feel that when looking at where we can afford to make impact pickups, it best suits us to look at these 2 scenarios very long & hard.  

 

i am curious to read what other es-ers may think...what your philosophy would be for this F/A period when considering the value for certain players & where we can afford to take risks via the draft & marginal players in F/A.  don't get me wrong...i don't believe any of these scenarios can really make us immediate contenders per se.  although with the right moves...for younger, more impactful talent at the right positions, could certainly propel us back into the right side of upward movement & could set us up at key positions defensively for a few years at least.

 

 

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My philosophy is if you're going after a high priced FA, he needs to be young, high character and low injury risk. If you're signing older vets, on the down slope, that's cool too. But these should be cheaper, easily voidable contracts.

I believe this is the approach of every competent GM. Every team signs FAs.

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Not sure I understand the question since market value is the highest price a demander is willing to pay.  Now, as far as FA, your current needs balanced against future needs.

 

meaning that we know the idea is to go after 1 or 2 high-priced F/A's...& many of whom will be valued & eventually signed at inflated prices.  in all likelihood we will be one of those overpaying for a player or 2 in F/A.  my main question is based around...let's say, we know that O-line is our biggest need to fill, for all intents & purposes.  however we will likely have to pay a LT to move to RT if we wants someone much more competent...THAT YOU'RE WILLING TO OVERPAY FOR...than Polumbus. as we know, LT is the 2nd highest earning position on the market.  soooo...is it more prudent then, to go with that option if it mean hampering our ability to upgrade at other positions or at depth.  or do you overpay for a player who may have a higher impact at another position (better overall player), but who's price will still ultimately be lower or equal to that which we might pay for say a RT or WR.

 

it's something i hope our F/O is prioritizing.  certainly there are other options at positions of need, but at WR or RT, i don't feel like you'll be able to get your money's worth in impact & still be able to sign other players for depth.  conversely...i have given my thoughts as to who i feel may actually help us the most for our money while still back-filling other positions. 

 

of course there are other options/scenarios, & probably many suggestions better than mine.  i was just wanting to see what others on this board might think...when you consider the broader scope as opposed to "we need an OT...go get one!"

 

i have said on this board before....perfect world we spend whatever it takes on the top WR, & RT, & try to add for competition on defense & hope your scouts can find you a gem or 2 on defense.  bide our time.  then try to fill more needs on the defense in 2015.  however...the more i read on how Hardy can work essentially the same as he already has within a 3-4...especially if Haslett is going to be more aggressive in rushing the passer...well...it would seem that paying relative money for a young guy who can help us wreak havoc on the opponent backfield would help our secondary more than buying a couple of players in that area. 

 

that said...i could still, just as easily see the wisdom in going after Verrener, & Byrd instead & hoping that scheme will make all the difference in our pass-rush. 

 

still...some may think it wiser to overpay for a LT & move him to RT & even go hard after another G to overtake Lichtensteiger. 

 

i am curious to know what many others may think is most prudent for future planning.

 

i believe first & foremost, that our (potentially) 2 high-end acquisitions should be young-ish, & that they should be high-impact at their position.  then, for me, it becomes about who is the best at their position in F/A that fits a need for us.  personally, i would like to fix the defense first...but mainly, as stated, it's because i just feel there is better value for money on the defensive side of the ball where we can still have enough money to backfill other positions for competition, & depth. 

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It seems like the Skins always have so many needs because of free agents or draft picks that don't pan out.  When you look at the free agent thread and draft pick thread, fans want every free agent and about 10-12 draft picks in round 1-3!  If we want to build a long term winner we need to get max value out of the combo draft/free agency.  If the WR class is deep then we don't want to bust the bank on a free agent.  The free agent helps in the short run but we don't have the money for another position where there are no good alternatives.  For example, safety is weak and shallow in draft so teams may have to overpay.  Perhaps free agent dollars should be allocated to this position.  Tackles are supposed to be plentiful in the draft.  We might be able to get the long term answer to this problem in round 3.  Or, if the Cinci RT isn't too expensive then go that route.  I can't see the Skins standing pat with the current group of CBs unless they can rely on a vet high talent safety to improve the overall results.  We need a free agent starting ILB or two.  I mean there's just no way to fill these holes in one year without creating other problems. 

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"Willing to overpay for" is impossible.  You cannot overpay for anything.  Do you mean what is your philosophy concerning risk?  How do you balance future needs against near term needs?  In these cases, planned action depends on analysis of the team, skills of the guys picking the FAs and how well the coaching staff can use the guys in question.

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"Willing to overpay for" is impossible.  You cannot overpay for anything.  Do you mean what is your philosophy concerning risk?  How do you balance future needs against near term needs?  In these cases, planned action depends on analysis of the team, skills of the guys picking the FAs and how well the coaching staff can use the guys in question.

 

Oh, you can overpay for things.  The price you paid is not the same as market value.  Market value would be what an educated consumer who is not in desperate straights would pay. 

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Oh, you can overpay for things.  The price you paid is not the same as market value.  Market value would be what an educated consumer who is not in desperate straights would pay. 

No, market value is NOT what an "educated" consumer would pay, market value is what the highest bidder would pay.

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I want to sign bargain free agents, not high priced ones. Get them on cheap, one year deals and use the draft to infuse talent around the roster. Stop using free agency as a means to build your roster. Guys like Kenny Britt, Kerry Rhodes, Stevie Brown, BJ Raji, Alan Branch etc. This wouldn't destroy our cap and would leave us with the funds necessary to lock up Trent and Ryan Kerrigan.

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As far as high end FA, I'm high on only Hardy.  Not as high on Byrd as others but wouldn't cringe if the Skins brought him in, but not at the expense of Hardy.  

 

Verrner if we can get him for mid range, if his market becomes high for him forget it. Corner is the second most overrated position in football outside of WR.  And on that note, don't bring in ANY WRs. Even at bargain basement prices no WR free agent would be a major upgrade over Hankerson and Moss that wouldn't involve overpaying. 

 

What sucks is that we desperately need an Oline revamp outside of Williams but absolutely no one impresses me in free agency, bargain basement only and no Incognito risk ventures.  

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I want us to focus on need and avoid the "value" trap.  The defense needs help since Shanny spent money on offense for several years.

Its a passing league right now so the secondary has to get some decent new players.   I think we need at least one tall speed receiver whether they find him in the draft or get him as a free agent.  As Gruden said recently there are so many holes to fill on the roster that they cannot do everything this year.  The other big unknown were injured players we had from last year that did not play.  If a few of these injured players can bounce back then we do not need to replace them this year.  One of the NFL.com draft gurus says this years draft is one of the best he has seen in years so like Gruden said we need to hit on each draft pick we have in each round of this draft.

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Other than OL and CB, I'd save some of that cap space to maybe resign some of our own younger players now if thyey do well in 2014.  We want to be successful year in and year out; we have to develop a core of our own players.  If you don't do that; then every year you will be looking hopelessly at free agengy to fill that need and we know how our luck has been there.

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I want to sign bargain free agents, not high priced ones. Get them on cheap, one year deals and use the draft to infuse talent around the roster. Stop using free agency as a means to build your roster. Guys like Kenny Britt, Kerry Rhodes, Stevie Brown, BJ Raji, Alan Branch etc. This wouldn't destroy our cap and would leave us with the funds necessary to lock up Trent and Ryan Kerrigan.

Why? We've had to sign bargain free agents the last couple of years. I'm not saying to on an all out spending spree, but to get good players, you have to pay. I think a couple of high priced guys wouldn't bother me as long as Bruce puts together a cap friendly contract. Then you sign more 2nd tier free agents. You can't just sign a bunch of average contracts and expect to pull diamonds from the rough. Plus, there is a minimum you have to spend.

I agree that you must, must continue to build through the draft and set a good foundation, however, you only get so many picks per year and the whole roster can't consist of 22 and 23 yr olds.

You need to supplement the roster with free agents. As long as we stick with a plan in free agency of getting 25-29 year olds in their prime, cap friendly deals and guys who fit the schemes, I'm ok with free agents.

As far as high end FA, I'm high on only Hardy. Not as high on Byrd as others but wouldn't cringe if the Skins brought him in, but not at the expense of Hardy.

Verrner if we can get him for mid range, if his market becomes high for him forget it. Corner is the second most overrated position in football outside of WR. And on that note, don't bring in ANY WRs.

Hardy is an undersized 4-3 DE. He's not a fit at 3-4 DE.

So, you want to waste all our picks on WRs? We need to do both. We need to sign a WR and we need to draft one. WR is a big area of need.

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I think after our circumstances with the cap, going after one big name would be fine. In my opinion, that guy is Jarius Byrd. To me, FS is our most glaring need by far, and it's not every day that you have a young pro-bowl safety available in free agency. I just don't think there is any way we can go thru another season with safety play like last year. My one concern would be his injury history though.

 

As far as Hardy, this make absolutely no sense to me. Pay big bucks for a player that doesn't even fit your scheme, when you'll already have alot of money invested in your pass rushers(if Rak and Kerrigan are both resigned in the future).

 

I wouldn't mind seeing us pick up a WR via free agency. Preferrably Maclin if he can be had for cheap on a one year deal, or possibly Britt. I know he's a head case, but the talent is there and he could be signed for peanuts at this point.

 

I agree that most of our building will need to be done thru the draft. Id like to see us get at least one new starter on the OL and a new starting MLB via the draft . I think these two positions have the best chance of making an impact this year and filling a need now. Seems like the learning curve is a bit shorter, compared to a WR or S.

 

I think if we did all of this, while retaining our own FA, our team would be vastly improved from last year with minimal impact to the cap.

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I'm convinced we cannot spend on WR with all the team needs. I have locked in on 4 that shouldn't require big contracts and have ST capability. Ginn Jr, Britt, McCluster, and Tate. Although someone is saying Tate might be in 5 mil per year range, too high.

 

Focus on MLB/S studs...both under 30. Please no Dansby.

 

Resign Rak and Riley.

 

Lastly, need a Tackle who can step in and play. I would like to go guard in draft and phase in Lerib.

 

All set

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I think the need position to fill in FA is safety. Now I'm not opposed to drafting a safety, but anyone we draft is going to spend their first year learning the position at the NFL level and making mistakes - and what players do we have that can help them learn this position? Merriweather? Perhaps not the guy you want to help a young safety.

 

So in FA, go for a safety, and a good one. Byrd is the best, but T.J. Ward would be better value. I suspect at least one won't make it to FA however.

 

All the other positions of need I would go "BPA" in Free Agency. Players I can see us looking at:

 

DE: Arthur Jones - there are better players, but he might be best value.

 

WR: Tate - as a number 2 WR, and he does returns as well. Again, a value pick.

 

ILB: Beason - not the best choice by any means but he should be cheap, and might allow us time to develop a draft choice without having to throw in at the deep end.

 

OL: It's time one of our earlier draft picks stepped up!

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I keep seeing Beason and Dansby's names thrown around. Beason is 29, but he's an old and injured 29. I live here in Charlotte and I've seen his play the last few seasons. He's a 4-3 backer, so he doesn't fit IMO. Dansby's age concerns me. These are the types of guys we've been needing to avoid in FA. I don't know why anyone doesn't see that. Old players + last contract = bad play. No thanks.

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Beason's injuries are a problem, but that would be why we can get him cheap. After joining the Giants in week 4(?) I think he played in every game for them, so the injury bug maybe behind him. And 29 isn't that old (Dansby is 32). Beason is also a guy who works hard at the game.

 

To me he's a value pick in FA - the injury risk is why he's going to be very affordable, and you build that risk into a short term contract, and develop a draft choice while Beason's around. The other options are either to spend a lot more money for someone younger and better, and there are only two or three options there, or to draft someone and hope they can immediately start next to Riley, which is a risk of a different sort.

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Beason's injuries are a problem, but that would be why we can get him cheap. After joining the Giants in week 4(?) I think he played in every game for them, so the injury bug maybe behind him. And 29 isn't that old (Dansby is 32). Beason is also a guy who works hard at the game.

To me he's a value pick in FA - the injury risk is why he's going to be very affordable, and you build that risk into a short term contract, and develop a draft choice while Beason's around. The other options are either to spend a lot more money for someone younger and better, and there are only two or three options there, or to draft someone and hope they can immediately start next to Riley, which is a risk of a different sort.

Cheaper is not always the answer. There are plenty of free agent ILBers out there that would actually cost less than Beason or Dansby, with a lot less miles. I'd rather sign a guy who's rookie contract has expired that is 25-28 years old that has been a backup/special teamer that is ready to start.

Believe me, just because Beason is only 29, his body is 34. There was a reason he was let go. The younger, faster, healthier and cheaper Kuechley.

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A lot of people talk about LBs and WR/TE but I'm of the school of thought that the secondary was complete garbage last year and was the reason the defense was inept.  I think you've got to invest in SS FS, CBs. 

 

After that the offensive woes usually came from pressure.  Fix the O-line first and you've got a decent unit.  Fix both the secondary and oline and I think we may be in danger of winning games.  I doubt they do it though that would make too much sense.

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