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Examining Shanahan's Failures In Personnel Acquisition - A Brief Overview:


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He was a LT with the Saints before being hurt.

It was never about him being spoiled goods (but the fact that the Saints were willing to trade him for so little when I believe they were going to start a rookie at RT should have been a clue that something was up (I also believe he was FA after that year so that if he played really well, he was probably going to demand LT money, which mean he was probably going to go)).

But the fact that you were getting a 2 time ProBowl LT for so cheap should have been an indication that something else might have been an issue.

Actually the saints were starting a pro bowler at right tackle. and brown was replaced by bushrod who was in his 3rd or 4th year(and on his way to a pro bowl). so what it might have said they had 3 pro bowl caliber tackles and one was coming off a knee injury. and if I remember correctly we had stephon heyer.

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Actually the saints were starting a pro bowler at right tackle. and brown was replaced by bushrod who was in his 3rd or 4th year(and on his way to a pro bowl). so what it might have said they had 3 pro bowl caliber tackles and one was coming off a knee injury. and if I remember correctly we had stephon heyer.

 

Yeah, it looks like I got that wrong (I did say I believe they were starting a rookie not that they were).

 

In terms of his value though, I'd like to point out that it wasn't just the assessment of the Saints, but the rest of the league.  I'm sure if most of the rest of the teams in the NFL has offered the Saints more, they would have taken it (i.e. the Saints very likely took the best deal (I can imigaine that MAYBE they would have turned down a better offer from a more direct competitor)).  And I'm sure there were other teams in the NFL with tackle issues.

 

The other general point I'd like to make is it just wasn't McNabb and Brown, there were multiple places where they didn't make trades, but they did something similar like signing Galloway and LJ.  It was like some attempt to recreate the over the hill gang.

 

And while you didn't give up draft picks for those guys, they did take up roster spots.  Since they've been here, they've shown no indication that they have any idea how to value a roster spot and/or how bad the roster is.

 

And it continues today.

 

What value does Rex Grossman have on this team?

 

Why is he on the roster?

 

If it was just an issue in year 1, that would be one thing, but it has been a continuing issue.

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And it continues today.

 

What value does Rex Grossman have on this team?

 

Why is he on the roster?

 

If it was just an issue in year 1, that would be one thing, but it has been a continuing issue.

Rex is on the team because our franchise QB is coming off major knee surgery and no one knows how he'll hold up throughout a season.  If RG3 goes down then there's not another QB I'd rather have backing up Cousins than Rex.  All 3 of the QB's give us a chance to win, some more than others.

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Rex is on the team because our franchise QB is coming off major knee surgery and no one knows how he'll hold up throughout a season.  If RG3 goes down then there's not another QB I'd rather have backing up Cousins than Rex.  All 3 of the QB's give us a chance to win, some more than others.

 

You're 2-5.  Do you really believe that if your top 2 QBs go down that how many games you win is going to matter?

 

And if you do that's the problem and I think it is the same thinking that Shanahan has and it then explains why in 2010 when you had an awful roster that wasn't close to being a winning team that you trade for McNabb and Brown and sign LJ and Galloway.

 

You're valuing wins that are essentially meaningless now over long term growth of the roster and future wins.

 

That might make sense if you're a really good team.  It didn't make sense in 2010 and doesn't make sense now sitting at 2-5.

 

 

*EDIT*

The other thing with respect to Grossman is if you cut him, you know what is going to happen to him.  He's going to go home and sit.  Two years ago, he was sitting at home in Aug when we signed him.  There isn't more interest in him now then there was then.

 

If you want (and I don't think it makes much sense), you can essentially have Grossman as your 3rd string QB, while he is sitting at home and not taking up a roster spot.

 

RGIII goes down and it looks like he's going to miss a couple of games- call Grossman up and bring him back in.

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I am not sure Grossman sits at home. Look at some of the qbs playing atm. I would take Grossman over that st. Louis mess. I think but not sure I would take him over Cambell. I am sure a ton of teams would also love him as a backup to some of these young qbs. Do I like him as a starter HELL NO, but I think there is more interest for a vet qb who can help mentor a young qb or come in for spot duty mob up time then u think.

 

As for the Brown and Mcnabb trade, yep they sucked and did not work. Shanny has made mistakes on the roster and handling of things, no doubt. On the flip side you can point imo to more good about the roster then bad. No FA signings have crippled us moving forward, and some have actually been good (Colfied & Garcon). His drafts imo have been the best the skins have had in 20 years. As far as the crowd who keeps saying we could have had Watt instead of Kerrigan, yes if you had told shanny Watt  was going to be  DPOY and be a dominate de, i am sure he would have drafted him but at the time that was not on his resume. I would love to see the post predraft that was written about how we just passed on the DPOY and 1 of the most dominate DE in the game. We got a great player for us, leave it at that. Kerrigan has been nothing but a great playmaking pick. I would argue he was one of the best picks by the Redskins in the last 15 years.

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You're 2-5.  Do you really believe that if your top 2 QBs go down that how many games you win is going to matter?

 

And if you do that's the problem and I think it is the same thinking that Shanahan has and it then explains why in 2010 when you had an awful roster that wasn't close to being a winning team that you trade for McNabb and Brown and sign LJ and Galloway.

 

You're valuing wins that are essentially meaningless now over long term growth of the roster and future wins.

 

That might make sense if you're a really good team.  It didn't make sense in 2010 and doesn't make sense now sitting at 2-5.

 

 

*EDIT*

The other thing with respect to Grossman is if you cut him, you know what is going to happen to him.  He's going to go home and sit.  Two years ago, he was sitting at home in Aug when we signed him.  There isn't more interest in him now then there was then.

 

If you want (and I don't think it makes much sense), you can essentially have Grossman as your 3rd string QB, while he is sitting at home and not taking up a roster spot.

 

RGIII goes down and it looks like he's going to miss a couple of games- call Grossman up and bring him back in.

Oh I'm not talking about currently mid-season.  I was talking about going into the season with 3.  I agree that you could make a case for going to 2 right now and if Rex is available in an emergency situation then bring him back, if not then bring in Pat

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I realize the J.J Watt thing is all hypothetical but this is only a small part of the trickle down effect that irks me so much about the 2010 offseason. Going off of the premise that their drafting has been very good (and it has) how did those trades not set us back just like the Jason Taylor trade set us back? The 2010 2nd round pick may very well have been a starter, eliminating a need next year, freeing up another need in 2011. Since the Jags traded up for a QB, the trade would have still been there for us, meaning you either get J.J Watt/Robert Quinn, or after the trade you get the 16th overall pick, along with 2 2's, our original 3, (potentially eliminating the need to trade out of the other 2) our original 4, and so on and so forth. Once again, using some good old common sense, I can confidently assume young, cheap starters were lost because of those two trades and cap dollars could have been saved or spent elsewhere because of the drafted starters that were sacrificed because of those trades. That's the very definition of holding a team back, and it's even worse than what Cerrato did because unlike when Vinny was here draft picks were taken out of very capable hands.

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Yes SJValley losing the 2nd rd pick via trade was a mistake, I will never argue that looking back, and maybe at the time. But his 1st pick that year was great and getting a starting lb later was a very solid pick. EVERY gm/coach makes mistakes. Everyone rebuilding makes mistakes. All you can hope is you do more right then wrong. For 2010 that trade was terrible. Drafting Williams and Riley were really good. I am sure in the up coming offseason the Skins will have a bad FA signing and a bust or 3 in the draft, i just hope they also make some solid gold picks like (Williams, Riley, Griff, Morris, Kerrigan, Jordon, maybe Amerson early but I really like how he is coming along for a 2nd pick in his first year.)  If things stay on par for the Draft and we get another 1 or 2 Gold(s) pick at a position we need what a differance it will make.  Another move made this year one could argue is resigning d hall for 2 mill over talib for 5+million. Is talib playing 3 million dollars better then Hall? Could the skinis have afforded the extra 3 million cap hit? I for one look back and say Shanny made a great move keeping Hall for 2mil over Talib for 5+. When I look at everything in totality, I think Shanny has added a ton of young talent and has more often made good fa decisions over bad.

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Oh I'm not talking about currently mid-season.  I was talking about going into the season with 3.  I agree that you could make a case for going to 2 right now and if Rex is available in an emergency situation then bring him back, if not then bring in Pat

Okay, I agree in terms of beginning the season.  With RGIII's knee and Cousins pre-season injury and the uncertainity about what the season would bring (in terms of them and Ws/Ls and their plyaing status) made keeping Grossman reasonable.

 

But that time has passed.

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Because RGIII as a QB prospect was arguably the best QB prospect since Elway, and getting a QB of that caliber is worth the draft picks given up.

And yes, I thought he should have given up GM duties last year. He's been a poor drafter with a penchant for bad personnel management, since the Elway years - he does hit gems like Marshall, Morris, Clady and Cutler from time to time, but more often than not he picks guys like Will Middlebrooks and Jarvis Moss.

And you don't call giving up a 2nd rounder and getting a 6th in return, especially a HIGH 2nd rounder, a ridiculously bad deal? ESPECIALLY when you look at who was drafted in the 2010 second round.

More often than not he gets jarvis moss? He hasn't missed in the 1st since he's been here! Later rounds are much more of a crapshoot, but it's like that for everyone.

Compared to most other teams in the same timeframe he has done well. Sometimes drafting well doesn't yield immediate dividends. Our drafts have been better than Indy's and yet they are playing better football, partially because we're still cleaning up after Vinny's mess, partially because they sucked for luck and didn't have to give up 2 1sts and a 2nd.

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Laron Burgundy makes a good point, in Shanny's first 4 drafts his 1st rd picks have been Williams, Kerrigan, Griff, and Griff.  How many teams have had a better first rd then the skins in the last 4 years?  I cannot remember the last time that was even given a thought.

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Compared to most other teams in the same timeframe he has done well. Sometimes drafting well doesn't yield immediate dividends. Our drafts have been better than Indy's and yet they are playing better football, partially because we're still cleaning up after Vinny's mess, partially because they sucked for luck and didn't have to give up 2 1sts and a 2nd.

 

1.  I suspect we doing average in the draft.  Partly, this is because my tendancy is to think something is average unless I have reason to believe otherwise, and I don't really have a whole lot of data on this topic.  Also because I suspect if we were doing significant better than average the team would be better than it is.

 

2.  If they have a better QB than us out of the draft, and they were drafted one pick apart, it is hard to argue that we are doing better unless the rest of their picks stink.

 

3.  I'd love to see somebody take a few random teams and put together information on their last few drafts as compared to ours to see where we actually stand.  A simple solution would be for a few people select one team and gather some data on their draft picks (things like how many pro bowls, how many all pros, how many games started, and how many games played) that independent of position give you an idea of how well they've played.  I'll help and take a team if other people are interested.  Heck, it seems like we might be able to cover the whole NFL if everybody gets involved.

 

4.  Longer term, I suspect if they are good at drafting will be very dependent on RGIII turns out because so much from the draft is invested in him.

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And if you do that's the problem and I think it is the same thinking that Shanahan has and it then explains why in 2010 when you had an awful roster that wasn't close to being a winning team that you trade for McNabb and Brown and sign LJ and Galloway.

 

*EDIT*

The other thing with respect to Grossman is if you cut him, you know what is going to happen to him.  He's going to go home and sit.  Two years ago, he was sitting at home in Aug when we signed him.  There isn't more interest in him now then there was then.

 

If you want (and I don't think it makes much sense), you can essentially have Grossman as your 3rd string QB, while he is sitting at home and not taking up a roster spot.

 

RGIII goes down and it looks like he's going to miss a couple of games- call Grossman up and bring him back in.

You have to have a 53 man roster.  What did Joey Galloway and Larry Johnson cost us? I view those guys as the NFL equivalent of teams that acquire "expiring contracts" in the NBA.  You can't get people you want because.  But you have to get someone.  So you get someone that will sign a contract without long term salary cap implications.  In 2010 we kept all of our draft picks either on the 53 man or practice squad.  The free agents we lost to other teams were: Ethan Albright, Ladel Betts, Todd Collins, Quinton Gather, Antwaan Randle El, and Randy Thomas.  I don't see any of them being part of the long term solution for the team. 

 

Now I find it hard to believe that anyone in hindsight would say that Brown or McNabb helped out.  I don't think they were nearly of the "catastrophic" variety.  I do think that Shanahan probably thought he could maintain a respectable record with a few moves.  And really wasn't that far away from achieving that. 

 

As far as Grossman this year?  I think it is pretty inconsequential in the big picture.  In this case I can think of one player that I would have rather not lost in order to keep Grossman...Xavier Nixon.  So if I could ask a question to someone in the football ops world is why we didn't bring that project back and put Grossman out on the street as it is pretty unlikely he would get picked up at this point.  And to your point...our 3rd QB isn't that important at this stage of this year

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As far as Grossman this year?  I think it is pretty inconsequential in the big picture.  In this case I can think of one player that I would have rather not lost in order to keep Grossman...Xavier Nixon.  So if I could ask a question to someone in the football ops world is why we didn't bring that project back and put Grossman out on the street as it is pretty unlikely he would get picked up at this point.  And to your point...our 3rd QB isn't that important at this stage of this year

I just took a look at Xavier Nixon to see how he was progressing with the Colts.  They ended up waiving him and placing him on their practice squad.  I wouldn't mind dropping Rex to activate Nixon.

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Laron Burgundy makes a good point, in Shanny's first 4 drafts his 1st rd picks have been Williams, Kerrigan, Griff, and Griff.  How many teams have had a better first rd then the skins in the last 4 years?  I cannot remember the last time that was even given a thought.

 

Non of this is about his drafting ability. His drafting ability actually only furthers my argument.

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I just took a look at Xavier Nixon to see how he was progressing with the Colts.  They ended up waiving him and placing him on their practice squad.  I wouldn't mind dropping Rex to activate Nixon.

As I understand the rule we would have to sign him to the 53 man and keep him there correct?  Or do what Indy did and waive him and then re-sign to the practice squad. 

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As I understand the rule we would have to sign him to the 53 man and keep him there correct?  Or do what Indy did and waive him and then re-sign to the practice squad. 

Yeah, we couldn't just take him from there practice squad, although that's essentially what they did

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Yeah, we couldn't just take him from there practice squad, although that's essentially what they did

The thing about the questioning of "why is so and so on the team?" really needs to have "instead of _____________" in my opinion.  I think it was Cooley talking about it one day and it seemed like a pretty good point.  You put some guys on the practice squad because you think they can safely stay there without drawing attention.  And that is why some seemingly good prospects don't get a whole lot of Preseason action.  But in the case of Grossman at this point in the season I would be okay with them releasing him and adding Nixon.  And even think it can be couched in terms of "for the future of the franchise".  But I also am under no impression that the number 4 tackle on the roster is much of a difference maker. 

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The thing about the questioning of "why is so and so on the team?" really needs to have "instead of _____________" in my opinion.  I think it was Cooley talking about it one day and it seemed like a pretty good point.  You put some guys on the practice squad because you think they can safely stay there without drawing attention.  And that is why some seemingly good prospects don't get a whole lot of Preseason action.  But in the case of Grossman at this point in the season I would be okay with them releasing him and adding Nixon.  And even think it can be couched in terms of "for the future of the franchise".  But I also am under no impression that the number 4 tackle on the roster is much of a difference maker. 

Yeah I agree - I think, like you said, while not making a difference now it could be more so for the future of the franchise.

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Shanny is a mediocre drafter. Hitting on your firsts is nothing special - take a look at our first rounds Pre Shanny

2004: Sean Taylor

2005: Rogers/Campbell

:

2007 Landry

2009: Orakpo

Thats an 80% hit rate. And Campbell really didn't underperform his draft slot.

You're supposed to nail your firsts.

And in Denver Shanny routinely bombed his firsts.

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 I think it is pretty inconsequential in the big picture.  In this case I can think of one player that I would have rather not lost in order to keep Grossman...Xavier Nixon.  So if I could ask a question to someone in the football ops world is why we didn't bring that project back and put Grossman out on the street as it is pretty unlikely he would get picked up at this point.  And to your point...our 3rd QB isn't that important at this stage of this year

 

I spent some time looking at franchises that turned around from bad to good.  I even started a thread on what I did, and I hoped to get to the point that I could say something conclusive about the teams that did turn it around.  But what I did decided is the difference between getting stuck at some level of average (~8-8 team that if things break right can win 10 or 11 games, but also can end up in the 6 and 5 win zone easily) vs. getting to the point where you win 10+ games on a regular basis is so small that's not even measurable.  It is essentially luck and random chance.

 

Other than us and maybe the Bengals, today teams are run in a very cooperate manner.  They are about making money (for the most part), but it is also understood that in order to make money, you have to win games.  You don't grow your brand/fan base if you're a loser.  There is so much competition to even get the jobs as head coach/top guy in a FO, it is almost impossible to get there and not be very competent.  The days of characters and people for which the job isn't the #1 priority are over.

 

And the people that aren't good at the job are pretty quickly washed out (there isn't much patientce if you don't pretty much show right away that you have some level of competence and there is so much demand for such people (e.g. as analysts) that there isn't much incentive for them to stay.).  Essentially, everybody running a franchise today is at least "good".

 

What than dictates who is the best of good can be best attributed to random luck.

 

The Green Bay Packers sign Charles Woodson.  He's getting older and has a history of injures.  Two years before they sign him, a string of leg injuries limits him to 13 games.  The year before they sign him he breaks his leg.  He later admits that he didn't even want to go to Green Bay.  The only reason he goes there is because nobody else even offers him a contract (Tampa Bay had some interest, but I guess they didn't actually offer a contract).  He goes there and plays CB for one year, and then moves to safety.  He solidifies their secondary, makes a couple of Pro Bowls, and helps them win Super Bowls.  There were two highly sought after CBs on the market that year.  They both sign pretty big FA deals.  Neither one ever makes another Pro Bowl. 

 

Did the Packers think they were getting the better player with Woodson?  I don't believe it.

Did they even think they were getting the most bang for their buck?  I doubt it.

 

He originally visited them on April 3rd.  They didn't come to a contract agreement until April 26th, while he talked to TB and waited to see if anybody else would show interes.  If they would have known the value they were getting in Woodson, I find it hard to believe that they wouldn't have upped the dollars to get him to sign faster.

 

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  Anybody really think that they knew Rodgers was a HOF calibeer QB and they just sat there hoping he'd fall for them?

 

And if the difference between being stuck at good and being really good is luck then small things that you can control like the 53rd man on your roster really start to matter.

 

And a good portion of getting lucky is giving yourself the oppurtunity to get lucky.

 

Let's say they decide they really want a 3rd string QB.  Yes, the probability is very small that he'll turn into the next Kurt Warner (that they will get lucky), but I'll guarantee you that the probability that they will get lucky with Grossman (given the amount of time he's been in their system and he's actually played for them) is significantly smaller.

The thing about the questioning of "why is so and so on the team?" really needs to have "instead of _____________" in my opinion.  I think it was Cooley talking about it one day and it seemed like a pretty good point.  You put some guys on the practice squad because you think they can safely stay there without drawing attention.  And that is why some seemingly good prospects don't get a whole lot of Preseason action.  But in the case of Grossman at this point in the season I would be okay with them releasing him and adding Nixon.  And even think it can be couched in terms of "for the future of the franchise".  But I also am under no impression that the number 4 tackle on the roster is much of a difference maker. 

 

This comment is so ridiculous I'm going to go ahead and call the comment stupid.

 

I don't get paid to be an NFL scout.  I've got better things to do with my time to hunt up whatever game film is out there on the players they could possibly sign to replace Grossman to see which would be good options.

 

And even if the Redskins did call me and offer me a contract in terms of real player evaluation (doing that sort of thing), I'd turn them down.

 

I don't have the knowledge/background to start to do that and if they couldn't figure out pretty quickly I didn't have the ability to do that and fire me that would only indicate that they are incompetent and going to get fired pretty soon themselves, which would still likely result in me being out of a job.

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I am with PeterMP on this.

We have 2 wins and glaring needs on our roster.

 

We started the season with FOUR quarterbacks, nobody does that.

Now we have 3.

Some bad GM'ing in there when we might be able to develop someone at another position.

I am not even sure how you could argue against PeterMP.

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Its easy to look back with hindsight of course, but there were plenty of people who liked the guy I'm about to mention:

 

Its a shame looking back that Shanahan (like he does a lot) got cute and went with his hand-picked nobody (Chris Thompson, who we all talked ourselves into liking as a draft pick) over the fairly obvious RB with play-making/receiving ability that we were after in Ellington. Who went in the 6th.

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