Picks, Pats, And Pardons Week 6

[kleese]

www.edkleese.blogspot.com

 

Season: 48-29
Last Week: 9-5
ATS: 9-10-1 (Last Week: 3-1)
Lock: 2-3
Redskins: 3-1

Possibly made my strongest pick of the season last week, taking the Raiders as my lock against the spread, but also picking them to win the game outright. Not only did they accomplish both, but did so with relative ease over a Chargers team I see fading fast in the coming weeks. Had my first strong week ATS the spread, going 3-1. Missed badly on another upset pick (Lions over Packers), but in my defense I would not have made that selection had I know Megatron was out. In any event, feel as if some things are coming into focus and will look to a firm handle on the picks moving forward.

This Week:

New York Giants at Chicago: I'm falling in line with the majority of folks who seem to be having a hard time accepting that the Giants can possibly be THIS bad. But 0-5 doesn't lie. Neither does being outscored by an average of 36-16. They just aren't a good football team at all and it is exposing Eli Manning to a certain extent. He has had an excellent career and I expect him to go on another run before it's over, but he is not in the top tier class of QB's with his brother and Aaron Rodgers, etc. They will eventually beat somebody, but it won't be this week.

Bears 27, Giants 20

Oakland at Kansas City: I see something in the Raiders that I like. I think they might have found themselves a coach out of nowhere in Dennis Allen. I'm far from sold on any of their components being good much less great, but they are physical on both sides of the ball and Terrelle Pryor has been a major surprise. I think they go into KC this week and give the Chiefs all they can handle.

Chiefs 20, Raiders 17

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay: Lots of unknowns here. Will Philly's offense be slowed down significantly minus Vick? Can Mike Glennon play at all? Are the Bucs still playing hard for Schiano? Can Lesean McCoy get loose against a strong Tampa front? This is a coin toss game for me and I wouldn't touch it at all against the number, but if pressed I'd take the Bucs to get their first W of the season.

Bucs 24, Eagles 23

Green Bay at Baltimore: So far, it looks like the team I may have undervalued the most in the league is the Packers. They have looked better across the board than I thought they would and I am rethinking my position that they would be an 8-8 team and big disappointment. Having said that, they are still just 2-2 and looking for the first road win. Baltimore will be up and down all year. I'm thinking this will be a down week as Rodgers outduels Flacco late.

Packers 27, Ravens 24

Detroit at Cleveland: If Meagatron plays, I really like the Lions in this spot. If he does not play, I still "kind of" like the Lions in this spot. Losing Hoyer was a major blow for the Browns because he brought them an element of athleticism that Brandon Weeden lacks. I see the Lions massive defensive line giving Weeden fits and forcing him into costly mistakes.

Lions 20, Browns 15

Carolina at Minnesota: Not sure I completely understand the thinking behind the Josh Freeman signing in Minnesota. The only reason to bring him onboard is if you are going to give him a chance to play. And you can only really give him a chance to play if you pull the plug on Christian Ponder. I'm not a Ponder fan, but I'm also not a big fan of this move for the Vikings--seems a little desperate. Ron Rivera should be on notice in Carolina- their lack of any form of consistency must be maddening for their front office and fanbase. Another coin flip game.

Panthers 23, Vikings 20

St. Louis at Houston: The Rams seem like a good remedy for a Texans team that is scuffling in a major way. Matt Schaub just isn't good enough and at some point this year I see him losing his job. But it won't be this week.

Texans 30, Rams 16

Pittsburgh at New York Jets: What an impressive win for the Jets on MNF in Atlanta. I did not see that coming and along with the rest of world, I misread what the Jets would be this season. I think they have a solid chance to hang around in the playoff race this season behind a nice defense and a rookie QB that is exceeding what I thought he would be. It's desperation time in Pittsburgh, but I don't think it matters all that much-- similar to the Giants, they just aren't very good.

Jets 21, Steelers 19

Cincinnati at Buffalo: From the practice squad to starting against one of the strongest defenses in the league. I don't envy Thad Lewis this week. Andy Dalton needs to pick up his production or else I think his seat starts getting hot pretty soon.

Bengals 25, Bills 13

Tennessee at Seattle: Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to get eaten alive on Sunday.

Seahawks 27, Titans 10

Jacksonville at Denver: Awful game, but interesting because of the Vegas angle. With all of the parity throughout the league it is shocking that we have a game on the board that represents the largest point spread in NFL history. But the number posted is warranted. Denver is on an absurd pace and the Jags are truly a horrid football team. The Broncos will win this game by however many points they want to win it. I say they call of the dogs early in the second half and the Jags sneak through the backdoor to cover.

Broncos 44, Jaguars 17

New Orleans at New England: This is one of those games where you toss out what your eyes have told us thus far and you go on blind faith that this is simply the kind of game NE finds a way to win. I think the Pats defense gives a strong effort and Brady has a big day.

Patriots 26, Saints 23

Arizona at San Francisco: Last week was a complete breeze for the 49ers, but I still have some concerns about what is going on with their offense. Arizona's defense has been impressive thus far and I think they keep this one close, and ugly.

49ers 21, Cardinals 16

Washington at Dallas: I'm not a believer in magic wands. I think the Redskins will gradually improve on their awful start to the season, but I don't think they will be able to go from slogging through an ugly win in Oakland two weeks ago to beating a significantly more talented team in Dallas on Sunday Night. You just never know what you are going to get emotionally from the Cowboys. Will their emotional loss last week spur them to a big effort this week or will it leave them deflated and flat? The answer to that question will likely determine what type of game we see this week.

Cowboys 30, Redskins 17

Indianapolis at San Diego: I heard someone say this week that Andrew Luck is the best player in the NFL...right now. It sounds asinine, but I'll be honest-- I don't think it's a wildly insane statement. He is a special player and a unique talent. Their roll continues.

Colts 28, Chargers 26

Against the Spread (lock listed first)

1. Bengals (-7) at Bills
2. Raiders (+9) at Chiefs
3. Lions (-3) at Browns
4. Seahawks (-13.5) vs. Titans

[Commander Adama]

 

Washington at Dallas: I'm not a believer in magic wands. I think the Redskins will gradually improve on their awful start to the season, but I don't think they will be able to go from slogging through an ugly win in Oakland two weeks ago to beating a significantly more talented team in Dallas on Sunday Night. You just never know what you are going to get emotionally from the Cowboys. Will their emotional loss last week spur them to a big effort this week or will it leave them deflated and flat? The answer to that question will likely determine what type of game we see this week.

Cowboys 30, Redskins 17

 

 

Booooo! Hiss!!!! 

[bearrock]

I try not analyze the skins boys matchup because it's a little discouraging at the moment, but these games, especially in recent history, tend to be pretty close, so if we get blown out that'll be a real disappointment. I'm still hoping we turn around our season starting tomorrow. HTTR.