***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, bearrock said:

Add on the unselfishness on offense where he touches the ball a lot but is asked to pass first, second, third and shoot as a last resort, I don't think that's all that common. 

 

Draymond is not so much unselfish as he is scared to shoot.  He passes out of wide open jumpers and driving lanes and defenses don't bother guarding him.  He has the opposite of gravity on offense.  Even in Game 6, which was his best and most decisive offensive game, he was still doing it in the third and fourth quarters.  Too many times his passes either lead to awkward, out of rhythm jump shot attempts from his teammates who are forced into taking a lower percentage shot because he was scared to take the good look, or he just panics so much that he turns it over.  His turnover rate is super high for someone with such a low usage rate.  He's not a good decision maker or ball handler and he can't score at an NBA caliber rotation player level.  He is an objectively terrible offensive player.  But he is a strong leader and culture setter for their team and, he is a brilliant defensive player who has all of the instincts and confidence that he lacks on offense on the other side of the court.

 

He became the best version of himself in Golden State.  He is a poor man's Rodman there (can't rebound anything like Rodman), but he would be sub replacement-level in any system that didn't have the two best and most confident shooters in the league (and later, the best scorer of this generation).  Not just lucky to play with them, but also lucky that Jackson got fired and replaced by Kerr, who is the most visionary coach of his generation, and he figured out how to play him as a switching PF instead of having him ride the bench behind Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala as an incompetent wing.

 

What I don't care for about Draymond is that he is a dirty player who likes to kick other players in the nuts and he talks an awful lot of **** for a guy who would have been out of the league after three years if he'd ended up anywhere else.

[bearrock]

2 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

Right and at the end of the day, the data is biased.  And you have pointed out one bias.  But that doesn't mean there aren't other biases.  Including who they played, the schedule (back-to-backs, road vs. home), etc.  Just comparing W/L records or points scored without a systematic and wide spread method of controlling for biases is pointless. 

 

And by that logic, no stats would be meaningful because it would be impossible to come up with exact apples to apples comparison in the NBA.  Data may always have some incompatibility, but comparing 30+ games to 30+ games, one would expect things like scheduling and match up quality to roughly even out.  Is it possible that GSW started the season with 30 games against inferior opponents and then played 30 games against better teams?  I guess.... But I haven't seen anything nor have you shown anything to indicate that somehow there's something skewing the results when comparing data from the two sets.  

 

But that's an individual call and that's fine.  I think most people would find some meaning in 28-6 before Green's injury vs 19-17 after despite getting back Klay, but if you choose not to 🤷‍♂️

 

Same with PPG.  It seems to me if GSW has the same offensive output where Green is swapped out for Klay averaging 15-20 on 25 minutes, that's not a meaningless stat regarding Green's value to GSW's offense, but if you don't think so 🤷‍♂️

 

Quote

And Klay Thompson was a -2.9/100 poss. for the season.

So are we now arguing whether Klay Thompson is a valuable offensive player?  His offensive box plus/minus was 2.6, above his career average (in fact, the 3rd highest of his career).  He's clearly lost step on defense, but offensively, he was fine during the regular season.

 

 

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As for who can do what Green does, right in that series you see Horford run the ball up the court.  And Green does have a lot of TOs.  His TO/assist ratio is good but not great, especially when you consider who is passing to (some of the best scores in the league).

 

And, yes I'll tell you that Green is a better defensive player than Horford, but it isn't by a lot and what you lose with Green on defense you gain with shooting from Horford.

 

And in general, we've gone from he plays a unique role that can't be replaced by a comparable player to he doesn't equal a black hole.

 

And nobody says that Horford is a special NBA player at this point in his career.

 

Horford brings a different skill set to his team, but there's a difference between a PF dribbling up and outlet passing to initiating like Green frequently does for GSW.

 

And I'm not sure when I said he can't be replaced.  My exact quote was: "very few bigs could play Green's initiator role for GSW."

 

GSW's offense was just fine and their record much better with Green.  Which is all in the context of Destino responding to Hersh saying that he wished someone like Green was on DC by saying (with some hyperbole, I'm sure) that Green would be unplayable on 29 other teams.  Seems to me, GSW's offensive comparison and win-loss with/without Green seems to clearly argue against that.  Then again, as I said, this is not something that's subject to scientific proof or logical reasoning (beyond a certain extent anyway), so if you feel otherwise 🤷‍♂️

 

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Giannis?  KD?  Off the top of your head you can't come up with Giannis and KD?

 

Within the context of the discussion, I think @Dr. Do Itch Big's post is fairly read as referring to a solid to good but generally available bigs, not first ballot HoFers.  

Edited June 18, 2022 by bearrock

[The Evil Genius]

 

 

 

[bearrock]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Draymond is not so much unselfish as he is scared to shoot.  He passes out of wide open jumpers and driving lanes and defenses don't bother guarding him.  He has the opposite of gravity on offense.  Even in Game 6, which was his best and most decisive offensive game, he was still doing it in the third and fourth quarters.  Too many times his passes either lead to awkward, out of rhythm jump shot attempts from his teammates who are forced into taking a lower percentage shot because he was scared to take the good look, or he just panics so much that he turns it over. 

 

Some of this is hard to evaluate without knowing what he is asked to do.  Kerr may prefer a covered look by Curry/Thompson/Poole over open jump shot by Green.  

 

Quote

His turnover rate is super high for someone with such a low usage rate.  He's not a good decision maker or ball handler and he can't score at an NBA caliber rotation player level.  He is an objectively terrible offensive player. 

 

Usage rate and TOV rate is a terrible metric to evaluate Green with because usage rate is a function of fga, fta, tov, and minutes.  TOV rate a function of fga, fta, and tov.  The more a player is asked to facilitate rather than shoot, the more terrible it looks.

[The Evil Genius]

I would think assist to turnover rate would be a more meaningful stat. From what I can tell, Dray ranked 7th for PFs this year. That said, the ranking I looked also had Kevon Looney listed as a PF..so take it for what's it worth. 😆

 

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/assist-to-turnover-ratio

 

Then filter by position. 

[Hersh]

3 hours ago, PeterMP said:

Giannis?  KD?  Off the top of your head you can't come up with Giannis and KD?

 

Is KD considered a PF?

[Hersh]

The Draymond conversation is funny and reminds me of how analytics helps kill sports. Well the stats say this and that, therefore 38 other players could do what Draymond does and they Warriors would have 18 more championships. If you can't see how Draymond impacts the game with your own eyes, well, enjoy combing through stats to make your case. And before you say he doesn't do this great or that great, I've been critical of the guy too. No one is claiming he's a top-75 type player. If you wouldn't want him on your team, that's fine, but like I said, I'll take that type of player on the no heart Wiz team all day. 

 

I can imagine the same conversation being had about Dennis Rodman too. 

[Dr. Do Itch Big]

3 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

Right and at the end of the day, the data is biased.  And you have pointed out one bias.  But that doesn't mean there aren't other biases.  Including who they played, the schedule (back-to-backs, road vs. home), etc.  Just comparing W/L records or points scored without a systematic and wide spread method of controlling for biases is pointless.  And Klay Thompson was a -2.9/100 poss. for the season.

 

As for who can do what Green does, right in that series you see Horford run the ball up the court.  And Green does have a lot of TOs.  His TO/assist ratio is good but not great, especially when you consider who is passing to (some of the best scores in the league).

 

And, yes I'll tell you that Green is a better defensive player than Horford, but it isn't by a lot and what you lose with Green on defense you gain with shooting from Horford.

 

And in general, we've gone from he plays a unique role that can't be replaced by a comparable player to he doesn't equal a black hole.

 

And nobody says that Horford is a special NBA player at this point in his career.

 

 

 

Giannis?  KD?  Off the top of your head you can't come up with Giannis and KD?

You got KD as a PF? KD can’t initiate the offense like Draymond does and he isn’t as capable of a passer as Draymond. KD will generate opportunities for himself but not consistently for others. 
 

Giannis is interesting. I don’t think Giannis is as a good of a ball handler as Draymond but he certain has gotten a lot better at passing. I don’t think he is quite as good as Draymond but I haven’t watched his games as closely as the Warriors. But I feel like most his assists come from the post similar to Jokic. 
 

fyi just checked Durant has 32 career games with 10+ assist. Draymond has 97. 

Giannis has 38. I do feel like he is a much willing and better pass than KD. 

[Destino]

Giannis routinely dribbles through crowds of defenders.  Draymond struggles to dribble against a single determined defender in a set half court defense.  Giannis is better with the ball in his hands.  Passing isn’t all that impressive when the defense doesn’t really care to guard you.  The leagues assist leaders are virtually all forcing defenses to rotate and passing out of doubles.  Draymond is just standing there with time looking for which cutter comes open or he’s handing the ball off twenty times a game.  He’s not on the same planet as true point players.  
 

And let’s not forget that he’s paid like a star, so he should be compared to other star players.  
 

Blake Griffin when he was younger, would have been a revelation in golden states system.  He was an excellent passer and if he ever saw single defender at the elbow, it would be a dunk every time.  But the warriors don’t really need that, because they have scoring. They need defense more, so Dray is the right fit, and the proof is four rings.

 

[CRobi21]

**wrong thread

Edited June 18, 2022 by CRobi21

[skinsmarydu]

2 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

I can imagine the same conversation being had about Dennis Rodman too. 

I loved watching him play.  Maximum effort, (almost) every single game.

[PeterMP]

10 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Draymond is not so much unselfish as he is scared to shoot. 

 

I will say, I think this is unfair.  There are a lot of NBA players that don't shoot much.  There is a difference between being scared to shoot and knowing it doesn't make sense for you to shoot and you shooting would likely hurt the team and over the long haul end up with you on the bench.

 

Now, I also think it is ridiculous to give him any real credit for being "unselfish" and not shooting more. 

I am not going to give  Andre Drummond credit for being a good player because he doesn't shoot the ball every time he's open 20 ft. from the basket and he's unselfish.

Edited June 19, 2022 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

7 hours ago, Dr. Do Itch Big said:

You got KD as a PF? KD can’t initiate the offense like Draymond does and he isn’t as capable of a passer as Draymond. KD will generate opportunities for himself but not consistently for others. 
 

Giannis is interesting. I don’t think Giannis is as a good of a ball handler as Draymond but he certain has gotten a lot better at passing. I don’t think he is quite as good as Draymond but I haven’t watched his games as closely as the Warriors. But I feel like most his assists come from the post similar to Jokic. 
 

fyi just checked Durant has 32 career games with 10+ assist. Draymond has 97. 

Giannis has 38. I do feel like he is a much willing and better pass than KD. 

 

The Nets most dominant lineup in the playoff was .K. Durant, .K. Irving, .A. Drummond, .S. Curry, .B. Brown.  Durant is easily the 2nd tallest player in that lineup.

 

KD can absolutely initiate offense and Giannis can to and is a better ball handler.  They don't rack up assists like Draymond does because their job on their team is to score.

 

If you give KD 5 feet of space at the 3 point line, no KD isn't going to end up with the assist.  He's not going to wait for the person to come free on the back door cut or the curl curt or whatever.  He's going to take a high quality 3.  But that doesn't mean he can't do it.

 

Giannis is an excellent drive and kick passer.  If you give Giannis 5 feet of space from the 3 point line, he's going to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket.  And if you don't collapse in help, he's likely to get an easy lay up.  And if you do, he'll kick the ball out and if he had shooters like Curry on the wing that would be deadly.

 

Just because people don't do things doesn't mean they can't.  Green is in a very special place playing with very special players that other people don't play in those schemes with those players doesn't mean if you put them in that scheme with those players that they couldn't do what Green does and the way they play and Green plays is more of an indication of the limitations on Green and not other players that don't do those things.  That KD can shoot 3's really well and that Giannis can put the ball on the floor and finish over and through defenders doesn't mean that they couldn't do what Green does if they couldn't do the things they do.

 

Andrew Bogut's last essentially healthy year in Milwaukee he averaged 2 assists and 1.9 TOs a game and taht's pretty much in line with his other years there.  Nobody considered Bogut a great passer.  In 2014-2015, with GS it was 2.7 assists and 1.7 TOs (and Green was a little better with 3.7 and 1.7; though Bogut had more assists/per a 36 minuts).  The assists were up, the turnovers down, and people were talking about how Bogut was a good passer.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2267382-andrew-bogut-reveals-steve-kerrs-designs-for-golden-state-warriors

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/andrew-bogut-fundamentally-changed-the-warriors-yet-hes-the-name-we-always-leave-out-of-dynastic-discussions/

 

Andrew Bogut didn't learn how to pass when he went from Milwaukee to GS.  He went from a system that wasn't a motion offense, didn't expect bigs to pass much, and players that weren't great scores/shooters to a motion offense, that expected bigs to pass and people that score/shoot, especially the best shooter in the history of the NBA.

 

I suspect there are lot of bigs out there that if you put them in a motion offense with with the like of Steph Curry they could do what Green does.

 

John Collins doesn't have nearly as many assists as Green nor a very good assist/TO ratio but if you swapped him for Green I don't think GS would miss much at all.  I suspect he'd pretty quickly figure out how to fit into what GS was doing.  And I'm really really sure that a player like Horford would.

 

And nobody is claiming that Horford is a special player at this point in his career.  But he can absolutely grab a rebound run, dribble down the floor, and make a pass to an open cutter or shooter.

 

(Now, you want to tell me that Green is their emotional leader and they'd miss that, I might agree.)

Edited June 19, 2022 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

5 hours ago, Hersh said:

I can imagine the same conversation being had about Dennis Rodman too. 

 

Nobody ever claimed that Dennis Rodman was important to a team's offense or could do things on offense that other great offensive players couldn't do.  Nobody ever claimed the Bulls offense would falter if you switched Rodman for Karl Malone or going back to when he was in Detroit if you switched him for Larry Bird.

 

But if they had, I would have told them they were wrong.

 

Green used to be able to shoot (better) and go by people and finish at the rim.  When he did those things, he was a plus offensive player and would have been a good and useful player for essentially any team.  But that is not the case any more.

 

He's still a plus defensive player.

 

He also might be the emotional key for the team.

Edited June 19, 2022 by PeterMP

[Cooked Crack]

 

[The Evil Genius]

 

[tshile]

Curry is my favorite athlete (not counting local teams.) 

 

i don’t really want to get into an argument over him cause I read your alls and I’m not equipped for it. But I think he’s awesome and fun to watch.  When it’s over he’ll be one of the legendary players. 
 

don’t fight me. 
 

[Going Commando]

On 6/17/2022 at 5:25 PM, Destino said:

All you need to know about Kobe’s efficiency as a scorer is the definition of “The Kobe assist”.  If you don’t know, it’s a missed shot.  Basketball writers crawled so for up Kobe’s butt that they convinced themselves that Kobe missing shots, was still a positive for the Lakers.  I guess giving credit to the guys fighting for offensive rebounds wasn’t as fun as drooling over a superstar.  
 

The other thing people sleep on with Kobe is that he couldn't coexist with another star and was known for being a lunatic.  He ran Shaq out of town when they were dominating the league.  He’s the last player you’d want to build a super team around.  
 

all that being said, he was an excellent defender and two way stars are relatively rare.  He was an all time great.

 

He was a flawed player, but his strengths were so extremely pronounced that he is still a top ten to fifteen player All Time.  To me he's in the same tier as legends who were totally dominant but have some kind of wart in their game or resume that keeps them out of the highest tiers: Shaq, Olajuwon, Durant, Mikan, maybe Oscar, maybe Wilt.  I could see an argument for Oscar being a tier below Kobe and Wilt maybe being a tier above.

 

I think Kobe was the third greatest guard in NBA history, firmly behind Jordan and Curry.  I think you have to put him over Oscar because of his longevity and the fact that he won two championships as the best player on his team whereas Oscar had zero.  I agree that Kobe was widely overrated during his career and lifetime--almost every championship winning Laker gets kind of the reputation bump.  But one of the things I don't think he gets enough credit for is he's one of just four guards in NBA history that won multiple championships as the best player and leader of his team, the others being Jordan, Curry, and Zeke.

 

One of the hardest things to do as an NBA GM is build a perennial championship contender around a guard, and the only time it has ever worked is when you've got a stone-cold All Timer.  In almost every other case, you need an elite big wing or PF/C to do it.  Guards can lead the league in offensive contribution and still not be enough to get you a ring because they almost never give you any plus value on the boards or on defense.  Meanwhile Giannis gives you huge contribution above expected position value in all three phases of basketball and thus you can put a bunch of replacement level talent on the court around him and he'll still take you deep in the postseason.  Same for Embiid and Jokic and Durant and LeBron and Luka, etc.

 

Shows how the Wizards are ****ed, trying to build around first John Wall and second Bradley Beal.  The Hawks are ****ed too.

[Die Hard]

15 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

 

As a Knick’s fan, we need a franchise point guard in the worst way. And I still want nothing to do with Kyrie. ZERO.

 

I didn’t like Marbury or Sprewell trades either. Most of the time, I hate this franchise. On par with our football team.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Die Hard

[No Nonsense]

Draymond has become a very annoying character. Barkley might be right this time when he said, “Draymond is the least member of a boy band, but thinks everybody is there to see him.”

 

When he say things like, “I love y’all (his teammates), **** everybody else.” Remember that when you’re crying about not getting into the hall of fame. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by No Nonsense

[Ball Security]

If I’m OKC, I’m taking Ivey or Banchero (assuming Smith goes 1) at 2 instead of Holmgren.  They have the 12th where they can likely grab Mark Williams to protect the rim.  Then they can shop SGA.

[Going Commando]

On 6/17/2022 at 2:40 PM, Dr. Do Itch Big said:

I don’t see Tatum being better than Luka ever. 

 

I think it'll be an Embiid vs Jokic type situation.  Is Embiid as good?  Not on the whole, but in some areas he's better, and the overall difference between them is marginal.  And they're top five players that can absolutely be the best player on a championship team.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

I see Luka on an all-time trajectory. I don’t see that with Tatum 

[Dr. Do Itch Big]

4 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I think it'll be an Embiid vs Jokic type situation.  Is Embiid as good?  Not on the whole, but in some areas he's better, and the overall difference between them is marginal.  And they're top five players that can absolutely be the best player on a championship team.

From the players the warriors played against in this run. Jokic and Luka were a clear level ahead of Tatum. Morant was better than Tatum too. 
 

maybe Tatum had a bad series but he also arguably had the best roster. 
 

the Grizz might be better than the Celtics. Is anyone taking time lord over JJ? 

[The Evil Genius]

I think if and when Ja learns to play just a little defense, the Grizz will be the other team to beat in the West.

 

Right now they are 4 on 5 too much on one end.