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***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***


RonArtest15
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Yeah, but at least next year they could use an exception to give him a decent amount.  This year, I think GSW have to sign 8 or 9 players with 18 mil to stay under the apron.  Can't remember whether that was before or after Looney.

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I hated on that last Celtics build, but I actually really like the Kemba Walker signing for them.  He lets them get back to doing some of the things they did really well with Isaiah Thomas, only he's a better player.  He's a Brad Stevens guard.

 

They're going to be different moving forward, and losing Horford definitely hurts their defense.  And I still don't love the Yabusele or Ojeleye picks.  The timeline of their build isn't super coherent either, as Walker and Hayward are in different parts of their careers from Tatum/Brown/Bob Williams.  But if they're willing to deal Tatum, I think they can build a contender with what they've got.  A Tatum for Beal trade makes sense for both teams.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Do Itch Big said:

 

Woj put out a report no teams are really interested in Boogie. 

 

Wizards should reach out and try to buyout Howard or something.  We've praying for a Wall/Cousins reunion for years, now's our chance, eve if it's not what it coulda been with both healthy.

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1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Wizards should reach out and try to buyout Howard or something.  We've praying for a Wall/Cousins reunion for years, now's our chance, eve if it's not what it coulda been with both healthy.

 

Older and fat and knocked up with 4 kids, man. You missed your chance to smash.

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2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

But if they're willing to deal Tatum, I think they can build a contender with what they've got.  A Tatum for Beal trade makes sense for both teams.

 

No, that makes no sense for the Celtics.  Tatum is nearly as good if not as good, much cheaper, younger, and actually has more experience going deep into the playoffs.

 

As part of being much cheaper, that trade doesn't even work.  They can't take Beal's contract for just giving up Tatum because they are over the cap.  They'd actually have to trade you somebody else that is pretty good too (e.g. Marcus Smart).

Edited by PeterMP
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1 hour ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Older and fat and knocked up with 4 kids, man. You missed your chance to smash.

 

Lol, it's not that bad...or not worse then what we doing.  That sounds more like Howard, cant even be mad about it anymore, he came as advertised.

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WCS is a huge get for barely above league minimum. Dudes with comparable stats and 5 yrs older are getting bank...such an odd move for him. Maybe he likes NorCal and just wants to win. 

 

Between him and Looney, they got a good rotation at big now. They still need some forwards though.

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32 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

No, that makes no sense for the Celtics.  Tatum is nearly as good if not as good, much cheaper, younger, and actually has more experience going deep into the playoffs.

 

Not sure if serious.  You're right that he's younger and much cheaper, but he and Beal will get extensions at the same point and then you're talking about a 5% difference in salary.  But Beal is a much, much better player than Tatum is right now, including as a playoff performer.  Which is why the trade makes sense for the Celtics.

 

I took it for granted that the Celtics would have to salary match and add assets to the pot.  This would not be a fair deal for the Wizards otherwise.

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Not sure if serious.  You're right that he's younger and much cheaper, but he and Beal will get extensions at the same point and then you're talking about a 5% difference in salary.  But Beal is a much, much better player than Tatum is right now, including as a playoff performer.  Which is why the trade makes sense for the Celtics.

 

I took it for granted that the Celtics would have to salary match and add assets to the pot.  This would not be a fair deal for the Wizards otherwise.

 

He's not much much better.  As a rookie Tatum had a higher WS/48 than Beal has had all, but one year in his career.

 

And he did it playing on a better team than Beal has played on.

 

 

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Two years ago, without iso-Kyrie Irving, Tatum looked like a future MVP.  They aren't going to trade a guy that just a year ago looked like a future MVP and another good young cost control player for Bradley not even an All Star Beal.

 

And in 3 years whether giving Beal a max contract is going to be a reasonable thing is going to be debatable vs. even if Tatum does what he did last year for the next few years, he's going to definitely get a max contract.

 

People are going to be hesitant to give Beal big dollars for the back half of his career even if he stays healthy the next few years.   

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31 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

He's not much much better.  As a rookie Tatum had a higher WS/48 than Beal has had all, but one year in his career.

  

And he did it playing on a better team than Beal has played on. 

 

 

 

Which is why his win shares were high.  They won a lot of games.  It's a circular argument that isn't worth much without breaking down the role of each player to their respective teams.  It's also disingenuous to ignore the notable decline Tatum went through this season in determining his value.

 

Beal made the AS game the past two seasons.  He also averaged 25, 5, & 5 on superior efficiency to Tatum's 16, 6, and 2.  Tatum isn't close to as good as Beal yet.  The thought is he'll be as good as Beal a couple years down the road, which is not a given, but it's also not as valuable to a Celtics team that committed max money to Walker and Hayward, who are 29 and ready to win now.

38 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

People are going to be hesitant to give Beal big dollars for the back half of his career even if he stays healthy the next few years.    

 

If he stays healthy, he'll get max offers from a multitude of teams.  He'll be a 27 year old high end volume scorer who is equally good on and off the ball and can give you 25+ PPG on a ~115 ORtg.

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7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Which is why his win shares were high.  They won a lot of games.  It's a circular argument that isn't worth much without breaking down the role of each player to their respective teams.  It's also disingenuous to ignore the notable decline Tatum went through this season in determining his value.

 

Beal made the AS game the past two seasons.  He also averaged 25, 5, & 5 on superior efficiency to Tatum's 16, 6, and 2.  Tatum isn't close to as good as Beal yet.  The thought is he'll be as good as Beal a couple years down the road, which is not a given, but it's also not as valuable to a Celtics team that committed max money to Walker and Hayward, who are 29 and ready to win now.

 

If he stays healthy, he'll get max offers from a multitude of teams.  He'll be a 27 year old high end volume scorer who is equally good on and off the ball and can give you 25+ PPG on a ~115 ORtg.

 

Hayward's clock doesn't matter.  He wasn't even starting last year in the playoffs.  They aren't going to trade Tatum because a guy that came off the bench for them last year in the playoffs is 30 years old.  And Kemba Walker has put up stats on a bad team, but hasn't ever won anything.  They also aren't trading Tatum over Walker's clock.

 

Tatum's decline was completely predictable given the change in the team (and as I've recently pointed out, I did predict it).  The Celtics were 9-2 without Irving this year.

 

Beal is 27 now with 2 years left on his deal.  He'll be 29, looking for a 5 year super max.  I'm not gong to say nobody will do it, but people are going to be very hesitant to give Beal a super max deal that will pay ~$30 million at 33-34 years old.  (Somebody will probably do it, but there aren't going to be a ton of teams lining up to do it.)

 

Beal has higher counting stats because he has the ball more because he's not on as a good of a team.  He isn't really that more efficient that Tatum.  Even last year his TS% was right around Beal's last year, and the year before that it was better than all but one year of Beal.

 

A trade for Beal will involve one of 3 things:

 

1.  A similarly aged player with a similar contract on a team that is looking to mix things up + you pick up a protected first round pick or 2.  This is the, I'm sort of stuck where I am trade and am looking to mix it up in hopes that making a trade will make be better trade.  For example, this would be if the Jazz fail again in the playoffs and decide to switch up their identity or somehow have a falling out with Gobert and are forced to trade him.  In that situation, you might be get Gobert + a protected #1 for Beal.

 

2.  You take back several pieces where none of them at least appear to be really good (this is the Paul George trade and at the time Oldadipo was 4 years into the league, on his 2nd team, and never had shown the production that Tatum did.).

 

3.  You simply get picks in which case 4 first round picks is essentially the best you are going to do (you might be more if they come with protections, but 4 unprotected first round picks would be an excellent haul for Beal).

 

None of those include somebody trading you a 3rd player that 2 years ago looked a future HOF player.

 

(There are other possibilities if you are willing to take back a bad contract.)

 

Two other thoughts:

 

1.  I'm not sure that Tatum is as good as he was year 1.  I suspect he's not 43% 3 point shooter, but he likely can do better than the 37% number he did last year. 

 

2.  I'm not sure he works any better with Walker than he did with Irving.

 

You might get them to trade Walker for Beal after this season.

Edited by PeterMP
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4 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Beal is 27 now with 2 years left on his deal.  He'll be 29, looking for a 5 year super max.  I'm not gong to say nobody will do it, but people are going to be very hesitant to give Beal a super max deal that will pay ~$30 million at 33-34 years old.  (Somebody will probably do it, but there aren't going to be a ton of teams lining up to do it.) 

 

You've got some misconceptions about Beal.  First off, his counting stats are a lot higher than Tatum's, and with better efficiency, because he's a lot better than him right now.  He had a 3.7 VORP last season, compared to Tatum's .8.  That doesn't reward Beal for being on a worse team.  Second, he's 25, not 27.  Third, he'll only qualify for a super max if he makes an All NBA team next season.  Otherwise he'll only be eligible for a 30% max.  The Wizards would gladly sign Beal to a DPVE if he qualified for it next season and would agree to it.  We want him and the only reason we'd trade him is if we think he's going to walk on us.

 

Fourth, in a league market that just saw a 29 year old Kemba Walker sign a max contract, a 29 year old Jimmy Butler sign a max contract, and Tobias Harris all sign max or near max deals, why on Earth would you think there is any chance that a healthy Beal won't get a max deal?  Ben Simmons, who you don't think much of, just got a max extension.  Not only is Beal going to get a max extension, he'll be one of the top five free agents in a good 2021 class.

Fifth, why in the Hell would the Wizards trade Beal for Kemba Walker?  He's four years older and not as good and plays the same position as a very expensive guy named John Wall.

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2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You've got some misconceptions about Beal.  First off, his counting stats are a lot higher than Tatum's, and with better efficiency, because he's a lot better than him right now.  He had a 3.7 VORP last season, compared to Tatum's .8.  That doesn't reward Beal for being on a worse team.  Second, he's 25, not 27.  Third, he'll only qualify for a super max if he makes an All NBA team next season.  Otherwise he'll only be eligible for a 30% max.  The Wizards would gladly sign Beal to a DPVE if he qualified for it next season and would agree to it.  We want him and the only reason we'd trade him is if we think he's going to walk on us.

 

Fourth, in a league market that just saw a 29 year old Kemba Walker sign a max contract, a 29 year old Jimmy Butler sign a max contract, and Tobias Harris all sign max or near max deals, why on Earth would you think there is any chance that a healthy Beal won't get a max deal?  Ben Simmons, who you don't think much of, just got a max extension.  Not only is Beal going to get a max extension, he'll be one of the top five free agents in a good 2021 class.

Fifth, why in the Hell would the Wizards trade Beal for Kemba Walker?  He's four years older and not as good and plays the same position as a very expensive guy named John Wall.

 

His VORP takes into account his higher usage because he plays on a worse team.  VORP is essentially an aggregation of counting stats per 100 possessions.  Buddy Heild also had a higher VORP than Tatum.  They also aren't trading Tatum for Buddy Hield (so do players like Walker, Doncic, and Blake Griffin (Walker and Griffin actually have a higher VORP than Beal)).  The Celtics aren't going to trade Tatum for a guy that's shown he can put up big numbers on a bad team with a high USG%, especially not an older more highly payed player.

 

He isn't that much more efficient, look at the TS% numbers.  Especially 2 years ago, Tatum's number was higher, but all than one of Beal's years.

 

(And for Hield the dollars actually almost match up so the Celtics wouldn't have to throw in another good player.  They could do Tatum for Hield and Brewer (who is $2 million expiring deal).  That's actually a better deal for the Celtics.  In your deal, to "win now", you have them getting rid of one really good player and at least a useful player to the point where they'd actually be going backwards.   Re-making Wall+Beal Wizards (where Walker = Wall) isn't a good way to actually win anything, which is what you are having them do.)

 

Try reading what I actually wrote.  Nobody gave Butler or Walker a 5 year max deal.  They both had to settle for 4 year deals.

 

He's 26 now (we were both wrong about his age by 1 year).

 

In 2021, he'll be eligible for a 5 year max contract.

 

Like the likes of Jimmy Butler was this year (Butler has never made an All NBA team was eligible for a 5 year max deal this off season).

 

"Beal can get a larger-year four-year extension in the summer of 2020, or become a free agent and sign a max five-year contract in 2021 (or, he could bolt them to another team that summer)."

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/trade-wizards-reportedly-offer-bradley-203026469.html

 

In 2021, he'll be 28.  A year younger than Walker and Butler.  Like Walker and Butler, most teams are going to think carefully about giving him a 5 year contract.  If he stays healthy, somebody will likely do it, but teams aren't going to be lining up to give him 5 years for those seasons at 30+.  (Just like people weren't lining up to do it for Butler or Walker).

 

Harris is soon to be 27.  Two years younger than Butler and Walker and got the 5th year.  I suspect that Beal will too, but he will be a year older.

 

It was a joke, and I didn't say the Wizards would or should do it, but that's the move for the Celtics to make.

 

The Celtics should go into this year with Walker even though he doesn't fit well, and then next summer look to move him for some younger pieces that fit better.

 

The Sixers should max Ben Simmons even though he's got a huge hole in his game because he can't shoot.  Letting him walk has no value because they will be over the cap, and if he leaves, they won't have the money to sign somebody comparable.  And Simmons in young.  Given the Sixers situation, you absolutely sign Simmons to the super max.

 

The Sixers are now what they are.  They pretty much have to roll with it and hope it is good enough (which I doubt it will be unless Simmons learns to shoot).  Unless something like Zaire Smith ends up being much better than you'd expect given where he was drafted, unless Simmons can become a 70% FT shooter (he shot 60% up from 56% the year before and a 30+% 3 point shooter, I doubt the Sixers will win a championship.

 

But in the NBA, you get to the point that you are locked in, and you have to hope that's enough and you get lucky.  That's where the Sixers are now.

 

(Now, they put themselves there because of the trades they made last season, and I wouldn't have made those trades, especially not at the values they did.  But given where you are now, I have no issue with maxing Simmons.)

Edited by PeterMP
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9 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Try reading what I actually wrote.  Nobody gave Butler or Walker a 5 year max deal.  They both had to settle for 4 year deals.

 

They changed teams.  You're not eligible for a five year max if you change teams in free agency.  You can only sign a four year contract, but it's still a max contract.  Beal is going to get a five year max offer from whoever he plays for, and 4 year max offers from multiple other teams with max contract cap space.

 

Doncic, Hield, Griffin, and Walker are all better players than Jayson Tatum is right now too.  The reason the Celtics wouldn't trade Tatum for them is because they are so much older than him, it's not about their capability today.  Excepting Doncic.  And the Celtics would trade Tatum for Doncic in a heartbeat--anyone would.

 

True Shooting percentage is a worse measure of offensive efficiency than ORtg, because it doesn't account for playmaking and shot creation at all, which is a crucial component of offensive value.  ORtg at least has a measure of playmaking, and when you look at both ORtg and usage rate, you can start to get a picture of a player's offensive role and how good he is at shot making + shot creating.  Beal's 113 ORtg on 28% usage is much, much better and more valuable than Tatum's 107 ORtg on 22% usage.  It's the difference between being one of the best scoring and playmaking guards in the league and being a slightly above league average third option.

 

There is no question that Beal is a better player than Tatum right now.  The question is what is the timeline of Boston's build?  If they're trying to contend right now, then Beal would be much more valuable to them, assuming they could keep him.  If they're trying to contend four years from now, then Tatum is more valuable.  I think they're trying to win now and it's the Wizards who are trying to contend four years down the road, which is why a deal makes sense.

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2 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

The West is loaded. 2 or 3 really good teams will miss the playoffs. In the East 2 or 3 mediocre/bad teams will make the playoffs.

 

I mean, Denver, Houston (Maybe), LAL, I dont think Nurkic comes back this year for Portland. Utah? Might sound crazy after what seemed like a Death Star like implosion just a few weeks ago, but I don't see why not, sans injuries

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  • Destino changed the title to ***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***

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