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***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***

RonArtest15

By RonArtest15
in The Tailgate

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PeterMP

PeterMP

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

They changed teams.  You're not eligible for a five year max if you change teams in free agency.  You can only sign a four year contract, but it's still a max contract.  Beal is going to get a five year max offer from whoever he plays for, and 4 year max offers from multiple other teams with max contract cap space.

 

Doncic, Hield, Griffin, and Walker are all better players than Jayson Tatum is right now too.  The reason the Celtics wouldn't trade Tatum for them is because they are so much older than him, it's not about their capability today.  Excepting Doncic.  And the Celtics would trade Tatum for Doncic in a heartbeat--anyone would.

 

True Shooting percentage is a worse measure of offensive efficiency than ORtg, because it doesn't account for playmaking and shot creation at all, which is a crucial component of offensive value.  ORtg at least has a measure of playmaking, and when you look at both ORtg and usage rate, you can start to get a picture of a player's offensive role and how good he is at shot making + shot creating.  Beal's 113 ORtg on 28% usage is much, much better and more valuable than Tatum's 107 ORtg on 22% usage.  It's the difference between being one of the best scoring and playmaking guards in the league and being a slightly above league average third option.

 

There is no question that Beal is a better player than Tatum right now.  The question is what is the timeline of Boston's build?  If they're trying to contend right now, then Beal would be much more valuable to them, assuming they could keep him.  If they're trying to contend four years from now, then Tatum is more valuable.  I think they're trying to win now and it's the Wizards who are trying to contend four years down the road, which is why a deal makes sense.

 

They changed teams because nobody wanted to give up much for them during the season that wanted to give them a 5th year.  The Sixers traded Butler because they didn't want to give him the 5th year.  I don't know if Walker would have stayed for a 5th year, but nobody was making big offers this year to put themselves in a position to give him 5 years.

 

On the other hand, ORtg with a high USG% over estimate how good good players on not good teams are because they have lots of opportunities to take shots in game situations that don't matter very much.

 

(His last year in MN Kevin Love has a ORtg of 120 on a USG% of 28.8%.  In Miami the same year, Lebron was 121 on 31%.  Kevin Love was not almost as good an offensive player as Lebron James that year.  In fact, Kevin Love was not a better offensive player that year then Chris Bosh who only had an ORtg of 112 and USG% of 22.6%  And VORP tells a similar story.  VORP would have you believe that Love was close to James and much better than Bosh (Love = 7.3, James = 8, Bosh = 1.6.)  In reality, Bosh and Love were very similar quality players, and James was a much better player.  Bosh was just playing on a much better team than Love and so had less opportunity to rack up numbers.  Love, playing on a bad team, put up lots of empty numbers that caused a massive over estimate of his value based on the stats.

 

Your logic also has me concluding that Chris Bosh was the best offensive player he was somewhere in 2007 in Toronto.  That's not true.  He was a better offensive player those last years in Miami before his health issues, but he had higher USG%, higher ORtg, and a higher VORP those years in Toronto.  The difference wasn't that Bosh wasn't as good of a player.  The difference is that Bosh was on a much better team.)

 

All of the guys that I listed as having a higher VORP also have a higher ORtg than Tatum (and higher USG%).  They play on not very good teams so get lots of chances to make plays giving them a higher VORP and ORtg.

 

Again, Walker + Beal where they'd have to lose Tatum + somebody else pretty good doesn't help you win now.  Essentially, recreating the Wizards from the last 5 years doesn't move the closer to a championship then they are right now.

Edited by PeterMP
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PeterMP

PeterMP

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Kosher Ham said:

A Max contract should be for a max player. Beal is not a max player. 

 

This is why the Wizards are in this cycle of mediocrity. 

 

Don't be coy, you know what I mean when I say max player. A game changer. 

 

That's not the way the NBA works.  Salary does not scale linearly with ability.  You get to the point where you are over the cap and letting the person walk doesn't free up space to sign somebody comparable.  At which time if you are a good team, it makes sense to max the person.

 

If I were the Wizards, I would trade Beal, but for other teams, he certainly is currently a max player, and if stays healthy, for some team, in 2021 it will probably make sense to make him a 5 year max player.

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Hersh

Hersh

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Posted
2 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

I mean, Denver, Houston (Maybe), LAL, I dont think Nurkic comes back this year for Portland. Utah? Might sound crazy after what seemed like a Death Star like implosion just a few weeks ago, but I don't see why not, sans injuries

 

GS will still be there and they will get Klay back before the playoffs. New Orleans, Dallas and the Suns all up and coming. San Antonio won’t scare anyone but they are still San Antonio. OKC will still be good. 

 

 

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Enforcer_FFX

Enforcer_FFX

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Yeah, Sin is onto something.  Will be interesting to see how things shake out in Utah this season, after picking up Bojan and Mike Conley.  And I'm not familiar with Ed Davis, but guys like Woj have said he's a good rebounder/defender and is a solid pick-up.

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Mr. Sinister

Mr. Sinister

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

GS will still be there and they will get Klay back before the playoffs. New Orleans, Dallas and the Suns all up and coming. San Antonio won’t scare anyone but they are still San Antonio. OKC will still be good. 

 

 

 

People need  to watch out for New Orleans, even  in year 1 imo. They seem to have a ton of complimentary players to aid Zion, and Redick was a hell of a signing. Wouldn't shock me at all if  next Spring we see Zion vs LeBron in Rd 1

Edited by Mr. Sinister
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Going Commando

Going Commando

Posted
Posted

Derrick Favors was a really good pick up for New Orleans too.

 

Dallas could make a jump.  So could Minnesota.  They've got the two best players from 2015 on their rosters.  I don't expect them to make anything like the leap that Denver made, but I think the playoffs are a realistic goal for both.

 

Sacramento is on the cusp, but I don't know if they'll make it.

 

I could see the Spurs finally falling out of the playoff picture.  I think Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Houston will hang on to seeds.  I think Portland is vulnerable and that the Clippers will only make it if they get Kawhi.

 

I could see something like this happening:

 

1 - Jazz

2 - Nuggets

3 - Lakers

4 - Thunder

5 - Warriors

6 - Rockets

7 - Blazers

8 - Mavericks

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RonArtest15

RonArtest15

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10 hours ago, Kosher Ham said:

A Max contract should be for a max player. Beal is not a max player. 

 

This is why the Wizards are in this cycle of mediocrity. 

 

Don't be coy, you know what I mean when I say max player. A game changer. 

 

This is absurd.  Beal is a max player in today's NBA.  2nd best 2-guard in the league and hasn't hit his prime.  Dude only averaged 25-5-5 on 47/35/80.  On a better team, he IS a game changer.  Don't penalize Beal for being stuck on a franchise known more for ineptitude than winning. 

5 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Derrick Favors was a really good pick up for New Orleans too.

 

Dallas could make a jump.  So could Minnesota.  They've got the two best players from 2015 on their rosters.  I don't expect them to make anything like the leap that Denver made, but I think the playoffs are a realistic goal for both.

 

Sacramento is on the cusp, but I don't know if they'll make it.

 

I could see the Spurs finally falling out of the playoff picture.  I think Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Houston will hang on to seeds.  I think Portland is vulnerable and that the Clippers will only make it if they get Kawhi.

 

I could see something like this happening:

 

1 - Jazz

2 - Nuggets

3 - Lakers

4 - Thunder

5 - Warriors

6 - Rockets

7 - Blazers

8 - Mavericks

 

I think you have both the Lakers and Thunder way too high and the Rockets/Blazers much too low.  8th seed is going to be a dog fight tho...3/4 teams are going to be over .500 by the time the season ends and in contention for that last spot in the West. 

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Going Commando

Going Commando

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, RonArtest15 said:

I think you have both the Lakers and Thunder way too high and the Rockets/Blazers much too low.  8th seed is going to be a dog fight tho...3/4 teams are going to be over .500 by the time the season ends and in contention for that last spot in the West.  

 

I put the Lakers at the three seed because I assumed Kawhi was going to sign with them.  I'll put them lower if he chooses the Clippers or Raptors, and I will put the Clippers in a playoff seed if he signs with them.

 

I think the Rockets are declining rapidly.  They were a four seed with Harden giving them everything he had.  I think they're going to keep falling behind.  I could be wrong about the Blazers, but I don't really believe in them.  Don't know what to expect from Whiteside or Bazemore for them.  The roster looks thin.  But it wouldn't shock me if Whiteside plays well for them and they are a mid-seed again.

Agreed that the eight seed will be a dog fight.  There will be multiple winning teams shut out from the playoffs and it will get people fired.

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Spaceman Spiff

Spaceman Spiff

Posted
Posted
On 7/3/2019 at 9:16 PM, stevemcqueen1 said:

I think the Rockets are declining rapidly.  They were a four seed with Harden giving them everything he had.  I think they're going to keep falling behind. 

 

Shhhh....Don't let TTB hear you blaspheming around here!

 

I'll say it:  I kinda hope Kawhi goes to the Lakers.  It'd be like a video game, stacking a team with the best players when you want to just go out and crush everyone.  I get it from the perspective of competitive balance, it's certainly not good for that...but from the sheer spectacle of having those three guys like that on a squad together, it'd be fascinating to watch them play together.  And they'd have a huge target on their backs.  Plus I'd be curious to see how they fill the rest of the roster.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not 100% adamantly all about it but it's intriguing.  

 

If Kawhi leaves Toronto, he is one cold blooded mother****er.  That city welcomed him with open arms, showed him so much love and appreciation and he had a playoff run that people are going to be talking about forever.  If he turns his back on them...ouch.

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Spaceman Spiff

Spaceman Spiff

Posted
Posted

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-free-agency-latest-reports-after-kawhi-leonard-meets-with-raptors/1uzo2qwdvoh5hzcajfy66umfi

 

Well, the reports said he was going to let the Raptors pitch last so...he's met with them.  Gotta be a decision here in the next few days.  

 

 

This disputes what Jalen Rose said.

 

 

I know people have trashed Broussard before but I don't see how any of this doesn't make sense.

 

 

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Spaceman Spiff

Spaceman Spiff

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mr. Sinister said:

Dunno if its the shirt/jersey style or what, but homie is looking a little chunky

 

Jay Williams was saying yesterday that Zion is overweight.

 

Maybe that will be his Kryptonite...weight.  He looks like the type of guy that can go full Shawn Kemp.

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