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***2019-2020 NBA Season Thread***


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I've been thinking that if the Warriors continue to challenge for the 72 and go full effort like this all season they will break down and won't be able to sustain it through the playoffs.

But when you can blow out bad teams by 40+ pts and win 65% of your games by 10 plus pts and consistently rest your starters big minutes...you'll probably be ok.

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I wonder if Kobe was thinking "so this is what it was like to play us when Phil Jackson was here... this sucks".  It's more likely however that he was thinking about how much he hates his teammates for not passing him the ball.   

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I wonder if Kobe was thinking "so this is what it was like to play us when Phil Jackson was here... this sucks". It's more likely however that he was thinking about how much he hates his teammates for not passing him the ball.

You'd hope so, but I was wrong about him. He seems to realize that he's over the hill, and that makes me sad. I said at the start of last season that it wouldnt take much for him to lose it and film himself out in the wilderness with fatigues, camo face paint and a machete, rambling about sacrifice and fighting to the death.

Hasn't happened. Not even close

Edited by Mr. Sinister
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You should read the entire article you posted if you didn't. Ford refers to Okafor as a low post monster already with the ability to take a guy off the dribble. Again, he is the same as Sophomore in HS Tim Duncan. Considering Okafor's skill set, it's silly to think he won't develop a strong mid-range game. To think Okafor won't be able to score in the crunch time just loses you all credibility on the subject. It's a really ridiculous statement but keep doubling down on pure nonsense.

 

About Duncan, he is considered to have one of the best low post games of all time. He has a great bank shot, but it's his entire low post game, the ability to score and pass out of the low post is what makes him one of the all time greats. Players say he has the best low post game in the NBA.  

 

BTW, where exactly do you think the high post is?

 

He is making zero sense in this discussion.

 

I read the entire article, and I'm not saying that Okafor isn't a sensational scoring talent.

 

You said nobody was talking about the Sixers trading Okafor other than me.  Chad Ford, who is paid to report on the NBA, is doing just that.

 

You were wrong.

 

Rather than telling me to read a link that I've already read and that I posted, try admitting you were wrong.

 

Steve was wrong about what Okafor's shown in terms of his ability to make shots.  A guy that is shooting 30% from outside of the paint on non-3 point shots hasn't shown he can spot up on 17-18 ft. jumpers.

 

I've clearly posted information from outside sources that show you both are making incorrect statements.

 

And I'm the one that isn't making sense?

 

The high post is generally the FT line area.  Duncan has been great in the low post, the high post, out to the elbow, and the short corner.

 

But if you take away that extended game (out of the low post), then Duncan is not nearly the player he was.

 

Realistically, I suspect I'm talking about the Sixers with 2 guys that watch 3 or 4 Sixers game a year.

 

Anyway, I'm done with this.  Given what GS is doing, this thread shouldn't be dominated by a conversation about a last place team.

 

We should be marveling at what they are doing.  16-0.  Best start ever and just completely dominating teams.

 

And looks like they are going to continue to start Bougt, if he's healthy, despite the success of their small ball line ups.

 

**EDIT**

I just want to make one more point, the big thing is I'm not saying to trade Okafor, and IF Okaror does develop some of the things, people are talking about here, then I don't think you need to trade him or Noel.

 

If Okafor develops that 17 ft. jump shot/mid-range game, then I can pick and roll with Noel.  I can than use Noel as a cutter with Okafor in the high post/elbow/short corner area of the floor.

 

If Okafor develops into a good post passer, then there will be value in having an athletic person that can cut and finish at the rim (i.e. Noel).

 

IF Okafor can do those things, then the offense will work with both of them.

 

And it is certainly possible that will happen, which is why I initially said, if I'm the Sixers I'm not in a hurry to trade either one.  I'll wait to see what Okafor and Noel can develop.

 

The problem is IF Okafor (nor Noel) develop the other parts of their offensive game.

Edited by PeterMP
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You'd hope so, but I was wrong about him. He seems to realize that he's over the hill, and that makes me sad. I said at the start of last season that it wouldnt take much for him to lose it and film himself out in the wilderness with fatigues, camo face paint and a machete, rambling about sacrifice and fighting to the death.

Hasn't happened. Not even close

I don't know we may be getting closer to psycho kobe, he's starting to get angry. No way he would be happy closing his career out with this nonsense lakers team.

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Steve was wrong about what Okafor's shown in terms of his ability to make shots.  A guy that is shooting 30% from outside of the paint on non-3 point shots hasn't shown he can spot up on 17-18 ft. jumpers.

I don't think you've actually demonstrated that Okafor can't spot up and shoot from mid range because of the small and stilted sample size that number is drawn from. I've seen him shoot from mid range and he has a good stroke. And he can shoot turnarounds from the high post and does not hesitate to go to these tools in games. That's a demonstration of competence and confidence in the skills. Rookies don't usually shoot for good percentages, especially on shots they're creating themselves like Okafor does. But the skill is there. I think it's realistic that he'll become not just a consistent mid range shooter, but a strong one.

And even if Okafor becomes a stud from mid range, that still doesn't change the fact that playing next to Noel severely hurts the effectiveness of his low post offense because Noel can't command a defender. In today's NBA, the PF must be able to command a defender outside the paint, and preferably play on the perimeter and have the ability to make defenses pay for helping off him. Noel is not a PF in today's NBA. He didn't play there last year, and that's when he was successful. Now he's getting his minutes at PF and he just looks bad.

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Also Duncan was definitely a dominant low post scorer. He did have a great high post game, but in his prime years, he did the vast majority of his scoring within 10 feet of the basket on shots created by his post game. He came into the league as one of the most skilled low post scorers of any rookie ever.

Here are some shot charts and heat maps from the years he won MVP and was the best player in the game:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01/shooting/2003/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01/shooting/2002/

In 01/02 623 of his 846 made baskets were within 10 feet of the basket, and only 52% of his baskets at the rim were assisted, only 35% from 3-10 feet were assisted.

In 02/03 682 of his 932 made baskets were within 10 feet, and 51% of his makes at the rim were assisted and 42% of his 3-10 foot makes were assisted.

That's a dominant low game. And those numbers gel with what I remember watching from the time, when Duncan was taught in camps as the gold standard of fundamental excellence in back to basket play. I can remember learning his sky hook from a Wake Forest assistant coach at a youth camp.

And I think Hersh is right that Okafor's low post skill level is comparable to Duncan's skill when he was a sophomore at Wake Forest. Okafor's back to basket game as a college freshman and NBA rookie is easily the best I can remember seeing, probably since Duncan. It's unbelievable how confident and natural he looks going to it. I think it's realistic to project that Okafor is going to be the best low post scorer in the NBA in three or four years. And Philly can help this happen by surrounding the man with four perimeter shooters when he's on the floor.

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And even if Okafor becomes a stud from mid range, that still doesn't change the fact that playing next to Noel severely hurts the effectiveness of his low post offense because Noel can't command a defender. In today's NBA, the PF must be able to command a defender outside the paint, and preferably play on the perimeter and have the ability to make defenses pay for helping off him. Noel is not a PF in today's NBA. He didn't play there last year, and that's when he was successful. Now he's getting his minutes at PF and he just looks bad.

 

You know Okafor shot~50% from the FT line in college and high school, and he's currently about ~60% in the NBA.  Do you have any single piece of evidence showing a mid range game other than you've seen him take a shot and it looked like a good stroke?

 

 And Tim Duncan is a threat on the perimeter?  Tristan Thompson commands people to defend him outside the paint?

 

For Clippers, which is the perimeter threat?   Is it Blake Griffin with his whole 25 3 point shots last year and over 50% of his shots coming from the paint or is it DeAndre Jordan with his 4 3 pt. shots 99% of his shots coming from in the paint?

 

(Is there a reason you can't flip the Clippers team with the center being the point scorer and PF being the defender, especially if Okafor has this awesome mid-range/high post game?)

 

Or are their teams just bad?

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Blake Griffin commands one and two defenders no matter where he is on the floor, including when he plays on the perimeter. And Tim Duncan has played almost all of his minutes at center for the past ten years and Tristan Thompson comes off the bench at PF. You're reaching man. No team can afford to play an offensive player as bad as Noel at PF and have the floor spacing they need to operate. Especially not one whose first option is a center whose offensive game is based on operating out of the low post. But Noel hurts the guards too because he closes down their driving lanes because he has zero ability to make defenses pay for ignoring him.

Noel's only viable NBA position is center. But he doesn't have close to the upside that Okafor does. That's why when Philly is eventually forced to choose between them, they're going to pick Okafor.

Also, swinging back to a previous point: yes, you definitely prioritize the ability to score in crunch time over the ability to play defense. Teams don't have trouble playing good defense in crunch time. Even mediocre defensive teams routinely manage to step up the caliber of their defensive execution in crunch time. But only the teams that have good sources of crunch time scoring are able to reliably put up points. And those sources are extremely rare because high end offensive skill is far more rare than high end defensive ability.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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Also Duncan was definitely a dominant low post scorer. He did have a great high post game, but in his prime years, he did the vast majority of his scoring within 10 feet of the basket on shots created by his post game. He came into the league as one of the most skilled low post scorers of any rookie ever.

Here are some shot charts and heat maps from the years he won MVP and was the best player in the game:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01/shooting/2003/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01/shooting/2002/

 

I never meant to suggest that Duncan wasn't a great low post player, but you can't ignore that Duncan also was a great player out of the low post.

 

He had a great high post game. Look at your heat map.  You can see the high post points.  The FT line-extended area out to the elbows and even the short corner.

 

That (and his defense) is why he was a great player, and partly, that's also why he was able to score so many points at the rim.  People had to worry about him scoring from those areas and that put in him positions to go by people and finish at the rim.

 

The fact that he scored unassisted points close to the basket was partly due to the fact that he draw defenders out of the post, and he could go by them.  Your chart doesn't tell me where he made the catch on those shoots.  Just where he ended up.  I can start in the high post and my ability to score in the high post let's me get to the basket and finish at the rim.

 

And with his defense, explains why he was the linchpin to multiple championships.

 

Now, compare that to Okafor's shot chart:

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okafoja01/shooting/2016/

 

The difference is obvious, and if a day comes, when Okafor's shot chart looks like Duncan's then I'll be able to build an offense around that and incorporate Noel.

Edited by PeterMP
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Blake Griffin commands one and two defenders no matter where he is on the floor, including when he plays on the perimeter. And Tim Duncan has played almost all of his minutes at center for the past ten years and Tristan Thompson comes off the bench at PF. You're reaching man. No team can afford to play an offensive player as bad as Noel at PF and have the floor spacing they need to operate. Especially not one whose first option is a center whose offensive game is based on operating out of the low post. But Noel hurts the guards too because he closes down their driving lanes because he has zero ability to make defenses pay for ignoring him.

Noel's only viable NBA position is center. But he doesn't have close to the upside that Okafor does. That's why when Philly is eventually forced to choose between them, they're going to pick Okafor.

Also, swinging back to a previous point: yes, you definitely prioritize the ability to score in crunch time over the ability to play defense. Teams don't have trouble playing good defense in crunch time. Even mediocre defensive teams routinely manage to step up the caliber of their defensive execution in crunch time. But only the teams that have good sources of crunch time scoring are able to reliably put up points. And those sources are extremely rare because high end offensive skill is far more rare than high end defensive ability.

 

Nobody is doubling Griffin at the 3 pt. line.

 

The lineup the Spurs played the 2nd most last year contained Splitter and Duncan and was only 1 minute behind behind a line up where Duncan was a 5 (266 vs. 265) from being #1.

 

You wanna tell me that Duncan played the 5 and Splitter the 4, fine.  It doesn't really change anything.  It isn't like Splitter was a perimeter threat.

 

The Spurs regularly ran out lineups where either Splitter or Duncan was playing the 4.

 

Last year in the playoffs, the Cavs 1st and 2nd most used line ups contained both Thompson and Mozgov.

 

And the Cavs regularly run out lineups where Thompson plays the 5.

 

Do you actually watch games?  Or just look at box scores?

 

As for the rest, I disagree, and I don't see any reason why high end offensive skill should be more unique than high end defensive skill.  You can't tell me that growing up kids don't spend more time working on offense than defense so that it is their offense that is under developed.

Edited by PeterMP
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The Spurs regularly ran out lineups where either Splitter or Duncan was playing the 4.

True. But they also routinely played shooters at the four and five with Leonard, Diaw, and Bonner in that mix. They're also pretty much the only team that moves the ball well enough to get all five players involved in the offense and punish teams for helping off. If it takes being the Spurs to make it work well with two paintbound bigs, then Philly has zero chance of making it work with Noel at PF.

And neither Duncan nor Splitter were nearly as bad and limited an offensive player as Noel.

 

Last year in the playoffs, the Cavs 1st and 2nd most used line ups contained both Thompson and Mozgov.

Because they were forced to by injury. And their offense sucked as a result, and eventually became an unsustainable one man show.

 

And the Cavs regularly run out lineups where Thompson plays the 5.

And?

 

Do you actually watch games?  Or just look at box scores?

Do you? Mr. Tim Duncan wasn't a low post scorer and Sidney Moncrief was better than AI?

 

As for the rest, I disagree, and I don't see any reason why high end offensive skill should be more unique than high end defensive skill.  You can't tell me that growing up kids don't spend more time working on offense than defense so that it is their offense that is under developed.

Because it absolutely is more rare. There are way more Trevor Arizas and Luc Richard Mbah a Moutes in the NBA than Carmelo Anthonys and Kobe Bryants. They're valued accordingly.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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I read the entire article, and I'm not saying that Okafor isn't a sensational scoring talent.

 

You said nobody was talking about the Sixers trading Okafor other than me.  Chad Ford, who is paid to report on the NBA, is doing just that.

 

You were wrong.

 

Rather than telling me to read a link that I've already read and that I posted, try admitting you were wrong.

 

Steve was wrong about what Okafor's shown in terms of his ability to make shots.  A guy that is shooting 30% from outside of the paint on non-3 point shots hasn't shown he can spot up on 17-18 ft. jumpers.

 

I've clearly posted information from outside sources that show you both are making incorrect statements.

 

And I'm the one that isn't making sense?

 

The high post is generally the FT line area.  Duncan has been great in the low post, the high post, out to the elbow, and the short corner.

 

But if you take away that extended game (out of the low post), then Duncan is not nearly the player he was.

 

Realistically, I suspect I'm talking about the Sixers with 2 guys that watch 3 or 4 Sixers game a year.

 

Anyway, I'm done with this.  Given what GS is doing, this thread shouldn't be dominated by a conversation about a last place team.

 

We should be marveling at what they are doing.  16-0.  Best start ever and just completely dominating teams.

 

And looks like they are going to continue to start Bougt, if he's healthy, despite the success of their small ball line ups.

 

**EDIT**

I just want to make one more point, the big thing is I'm not saying to trade Okafor, and IF Okaror does develop some of the things, people are talking about here, then I don't think you need to trade him or Noel.

 

If Okafor develops that 17 ft. jump shot/mid-range game, then I can pick and roll with Noel.  I can than use Noel as a cutter with Okafor in the high post/elbow/short corner area of the floor.

 

If Okafor develops into a good post passer, then there will be value in having an athletic person that can cut and finish at the rim (i.e. Noel).

 

IF Okafor can do those things, then the offense will work with both of them.

 

And it is certainly possible that will happen, which is why I initially said, if I'm the Sixers I'm not in a hurry to trade either one.  I'll wait to see what Okafor and Noel can develop.

 

The problem is IF Okafor (nor Noel) develop the other parts of their offensive game.

 

 

You are right. Chad Ford (and probably Bill Simmons) talked about trading Okafor and I'm not sure there is a player they haven't suggested trading in all the nonsensical (and fun) trade articles over the years. The article sums up nicely how ludicrous the idea is.

 

This is way more fun than talking about Golden State. Here is how that would go:

 

Golden State is awesome.

 

Yes they are.

 

Did you see what they did to team X or what Steph Curry did to player Y?

 

Yes, it's unbelievable.

 

They have a great chance at getting to 72.

 

They sure do.

 

Rinse and Repeat for the next 5 months until the playoffs finally start.

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Because it absolutely is more rare. There are way more Trevor Arizas and Luc Richard Mbah a Moutes in the NBA than Carmelo Anthonys and Kobe Bryants. They're valued accordingly.

 

Bryant in his prime was not just a great offensive player.  Like people like Duncan, he was a great player on both sides of the floor.

 

Carmelo less so, but how many championships is Carmelo winning as the foundational piece of a team?

 

I'd easily value a Kobe Bryant in his prime more than Noel or Okafor.  Carmelo, I'm not sure about.

 

(I actually think Carmelo makes my point pretty well, where I'd say Carmelo actually has more diversity to his offensive game than Okafor does at least currently and so should be easier to build a team around.

 

If your choice is Carmelo or the potential defensive player of his generation, are you really better off trying to build around Carmelo, especially because teams are going to give you more for Carmelo?)

 

(And realistically, that's the problem with this conversation- you automatically convert great player into great offensive player and ignore the defense.)

 

And Moncrief in his prime was absolutely a better player than AI in his.

Edited by PeterMP
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Since I am in the Sixers market, and see a lot of their games, I'm glad to see so much discussion about Okafor regardless of what started it.

 

He's the best talent to come onto the team in a long, long time, and like many people have said, I have to remind myself - he's college sophomore age. Such fantastic low post footwork and ball handling already.

 

Sure his game is not perfect, but I think we're comparing the rookie Okafor to 'finished product' Duncan, among others. His natural ability in the post is just beautiful to watch - too bad the rest of the team burns the eyes. He has those abilities you want bigs to have but can't teach.

 

Also shocked at the indictment of his defense. I just watched him completely shut down KAT two nights ago, and from my viewing so far, no big has gotten the better of him this year.

 

Steve is 100% right on this - if Philly moves him, they are right back to square one, and alot of people should be cleaning out offices. Build everything around him - run the offense thru him, get the rest used to spacing and handling double teams (this is uncharted territory for this squad).

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Since I am in the Sixers market, and see a lot of their games, I'm glad to see so much discussion about Okafor regardless of what started it.

 

He's the best talent to come onto the team in a long, long time, and like many people have said, I have to remind myself - he's college sophomore age. Such fantastic low post footwork and ball handling already.

 

Sure his game is not perfect, but I think we're comparing the rookie Okafor to 'finished product' Duncan, among others. His natural ability in the post is just beautiful to watch - too bad the rest of the team burns the eyes. He has those abilities you want bigs to have but can't teach.

 

Also shocked at the indictment of his defense. I just watched him completely shut down KAT two nights ago, and from my viewing so far, no big has gotten the better of him this year.

 

Steve is 100% right on this - if Philly moves him, they are right back to square one, and alot of people should be cleaning out offices. Build everything around him - run the offense thru him, get the rest used to spacing and handling double teams (this is uncharted territory for this squad).

 

Again, I'm not saying trade Okafor (now), and yes, we are comparing where he is to Duncan in his prime and that's not really fair.  And that's why you don't trade him (now).

 

If he can develop that sort of game offensively, then he's going to be a really good player worth keeping even if he is never going to have Duncan's defensive game.

 

Al Jefferson against the Hornets?

 

11-19 for Jefferson with 5 blocks vs. 4-12 with no blocks for Okafor.

 

Jefferson being another good example of a good scorer, but otherwise limited player.  Is Okafor the next Jefferson or can he be better than Jefferson?

 

If he's the next Jefferson, then I'll tell you the Sixers should move on.  Now, this isn't a decision they need to make even this year.

 

Out of centers that have played over 20 minutes, Okafor is like 15th in the NBA in shooting % allowed at the rim.

 

But even more troubling is that he gets to few shots at the rim.  When you take into account the % of shots he defends at the rim, he gets down to like 26th in terms of rim protection.

 

(In other words, he's slow so doesn't do a good job of getting to the rim to protect shots.  If he happens to be there, he actually does okay.)

 

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

 

He's also had trouble in pick and roll.

Edited by PeterMP
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Al Jefferson against the Hornets?

 

11-19 for Jefferson with 5 blocks vs. 4-12 with no blocks for Okafor.

 

Jefferson being another good example of a good scorer, but otherwise limited player.  Is Okafor the next Jefferson or can he be better than Jefferson?

 

If he's the next Jefferson, then I'll tell you the Sixers should move on.  Now, this isn't a decision they need to make even this year.

 

Big Al's lack of defense and rebounding are annoying, no doubt.  Not to mention, he is injury prone.  But surrounding him with shooters along with his ability as a low-post scorer works.  Same could be done for Okafor, in Philly or anywhere for that matter.

 

His PPG went down this year, but they are now a decent 3 point shooting team (#10 tied with the Wizards and OKC) so he's not having to do as much as he did the past two years.  

 

Anyhow, I think it's possible for them to build a team around Okafor while he's young.  Even if he doesn't get much better than Big Al, that's not necessarily a bad thing, imo.  

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Okafor is a lot better than Jefferson was at the same age. He's more skilled, bigger, and I think he's more athletic. Okafor has the ability to put the ball on the floor from the high post and take his man off the dribble. He did it several times to Porzingis in SL and Porzingis is a very fluid athlete with good footspeed. Also he's a legit 6'11 and has a 7'5 wingspan. He's going to be able to match up with DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Drummond and back them down.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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Okafor is a lot better than Jefferson was at the same age. He's more skilled, bigger, and I think he's more athletic. Okafor has the ability to put the ball on the floor from the high post and take his man off the dribble. He did it several times to Porzingis in SL and Porzingis is a very fluid athlete with good footspeed. Also he's a legit 6'11 and has a 7'5 wingspan. He's going to be able to match up with DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Drummond and back them down.

 

Yeah, he is.  Big Al's first two seasons (after being drafted straight out of HS) he didn't do much of anything at all, but was he supposed to?  He was a mid-round draft pick (#15 overall) and was buried on the roster.  Didn't really break out until his third year with Boston.  He was a late first round projection iirc, like a pick in the 20s?

 

I didn't like the comparison to Big Al now and Okafor on a head to head match-up, it doesn't give any indication of how he will develop.  My point was, even if he only develops enough where he is equal or slightly better than Big Al was/is later on in his career, I wouldn't consider that a bust by any means.

 

It just means he wasn't going to be that superstar you hoped he would be for a #3 overall pick.  I get the expectations for him are higher than they were for Big Al.  Again, don't see Al's career as a failure by any means (not saying he meant it like that), but it could be a lot worse.

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Yeah, I didn't mean that Big Al was a bust or that if Okafor is similar to Big Al, that he would be bust.

 

Just that I think it is hard to put a championship team around that type of player.

 

Al's a really good scorer, but he's not really good at anything else.  Similar to Melo.  Melo isn't a bust, but he isn't an easy player to build a really good team around either.

 

And even there, the key to Jefferson becoming a real good scorer has been the development of a the ability to score at the high post and short corner.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jeffeal01/shooting/2015/

 

Will Okafor ever develop that sort of game, it certainly is possible, but I'm not going to sit here and tell you for sure it will happen.

 

And if it doesn't happen, then he's going to be that much harder to build a championship team around.

 

Can Okafor be a better player than Jefferson?  Yes.

 

Is he going to be as good a player as Jefferson?  I don't know, yet.

Edited by PeterMP
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Speaking of Okafor, he got in a street "fight" in Boston

 

I'm sure the league will have to suspend him and Cowherd will squak about moral something or other.  We can all pretend together that talking a lot of **** to a 19 year old isn't something we all recognize as likely to result in a fight and that getting in a fight at that age is a great sin that none of us would ever have done. 

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Speaking of Okafor, he got in a street "fight" in Boston.

I'm sure the league will have to suspend him and Cowherd will squak about moral something or other. We can all pretend together that talking a lot of **** to a 19 year old isn't something we all recognize as likely to result in a fight and that getting in a fight at that age is a great sin that none of us would ever have done.

Pretty much covered all the bases there lol

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