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***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***


RonArtest15

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The longer this series goes, the worse Cleveland's offense is going to look. And that D will soften.

Going from Bogut to Lee made an enormous difference.

Man it is nice to have a player like Iggy on your bench.

Livingston too.

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Golden State is the better team and eventually the cream rises to the top. Unless you thought Delladova, a career journeyman, would keep shutting down the league MVP and playing like an all star and Lebron was gonna keep putting up 40/10/10.

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That felt vaguely significant, but who the hell knows?

 

Also, I'm not going to declare anyone right because David Lee played 15 minutes. Though I've liked Lee since his Knick days.

 

The starting lineup they used is obviously their ideal small ball lineup (and maybe the most ideal small ball lineup in human history) and it finally got them playing offense again. It also led to Mozgov putting up nearly 30 in an NBA Finals game, but Cleveland's offense is a dumpster fire in general right now. Their defense has been shockingly great until tonight.

 

The story of this series has been the same since Irving got hurt - if Golden State plays even remotely like Golden State on offense, Cleveland simply doesn't have the fire power to keep up. If Steph Curry is off and Barnes, Bogut, and Green are totally useless....Cleveland can win with Lebron and some random hero. Cleveland had more Curry average and those three cats useless until tonight.

Edited by Lombardi's_kid_brother
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The big thing with Lee - for what it's worth - is not that he played, but that Kerr had the option of playing him.

 

I've been staring at Cleveland's box score for a few minutes, and it just makes me feel sorry for them. Delladova playing 33 minutes in an NBA Finals game is shocking in its own right, but James Freaking Jones played 18 minutes.

 

They can obviously win 2 out 3 - they just did that. But Good Lord is this a cluster of a lineup right now.

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Best comical moment of the game ?

I almost fell out the seat when Iggy was exaggerating his injury from being fouled.

I like when they showed Blatt giving a somewhat passionate halftime speech and JVG's first thought was about the food he could see in the background. I don't know if he tries to be funny or if he simply is a weird guy that just happens to be funny, but the end result is the same.

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I'd argue that their offense isn't broken because they can't hit a mid range jump shot at least not directly.  I suspect Curry can hit an open mid range jump shot, and if he got any, he'd take them.  He isn't getting any.

 

I'd argue their offense is broken because they have some guys that aren't giving them anything on offense and the Cavs are at best are playing token defense on those guys and focusing on others.

 

Bogut isn't giving them any thing on offense.  Even on pick and rolls when he rolls to the basket, the Cavs are hardly bothering to guard him.

 

As long as that continues to happen (which seems likely as long as he plays major minutes), it is going to be hard to score from any where.

 

It doesn't matter if your pick is at the 3 pt line or inside the line where you could imagine the player coming off the pick hitting a long 2.  If both defenders involved in the pick and roll ignore the picker and double the ball, and you can't make them pay for that, you aren't going to score much.

 

Now, if Bogut were to pick and pop and start making that shot, then you could argue a mid range jump shot fixed their offense (but I'd argue it would be better if instead of popping for mid range 2, it would be better if he could pop for a 3 pt. shot).  But I don't expect that too happen (for a mid range 2 or a 3).

Why?

Wanted to come back to this when I finally had time to write a post. The decision to eliminate the mid range game from an offense is made at the organizational level. My original complaint about teams de-emphasizing it to the point of limiting their offense unnecessarily plays out in both the line ups that Steve Kerr plays, the sets that he runs in his offense, and the players that Bob Myers acquires.

Myers built a team with basically no effort to acquire players that have good mid range scoring ability. There are a ton of PFs and Cs that eat from 17 feet in the NBA. Many many more than shoot the three at a game level. So the mid range jumper becomes an attractive weapon simply based on the talent you can get your hands on. The Warriors can't feature it though, because the only player they have among their top six that has a knack for scoring from mid range is Klay Thompson.

You'd think Curry would actually be good at shooting jumpers from the elbows, but it's actually his worst spot on the floor. And he avoids it. If he dribbles ino the three point line, he either continues to the lane and shoots a floater or tries to get all of the way to the rim. But the problem with that is that, when a good defense executes well, Curry gets swarmed at the 3 pt line and sees a packed paint if he takes it inside.

The Warriors do actually have two bigs with quality mid range jumpers that they could run pick and pop with: David Lee and Mo Speights. But Kerr didn't play Lee and doesn't really run pick and pop for any big, much less Speights.

I think it does matter where you set your pick. First off, the intermediate areas are almost always where the most space is. Defenses can't defend the whole court so they focus on covering the three point line and the lane.

But more importantly, the big man has to be able to pop to a realistic range so that he can actually shoot it if his man helps out to cover the ball handler. And you can't run PnRs nearly as well starting from the three point line. Setting the pick with the ball handler dribbling into mid range means you're more likely to have to defend the screener. Also I don't understand why you would run so many high ball screens if your big man can't shoot from distance and isn't a threat to roll to the rim. You can't get the switches you're looking for. And that's the situation the Warriors ran into in the first 10 or 11 quarters of this series until they swapped Bogut for Lee. His threat as a PnR finisher is what got Tristan Thompson switching onto Curry, which is the match up that ignited Curry and pulled him out of his mini slump. Bogut has essentially zero offensive value. And Green didn't really have any either when his three ball wasn't falling and he wasn't getting out on the break. They let him brick wide open threes or just waited for him to make the worse decision to put the ball on the floor and try and score in the lane. If Green had a mid range game, they would have had to guard him and not be able to throw multiple defenders at Curry every possession.

Getting back to the initial position of the Threes and FTs only philosophy effecting roster construction: I think it, counterintuitively, led to a worse shooting roster for Golden State. You're simply not going to find a five man big rotation with multiple three point shooters. You're always sacrificing something with big men because there are so few that are complete. And if you don't place any value on a big shooting well from 18 feet, then odds are you're going to pick a bunch of guys who can't do it. Which is how Golden State ended up with a front court rotation with extremely limited offensive value.

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One more thing: shooting is contagious. Good and bad. Your whole team plays looser and shoots better when somebody or somebodies starts hitting shots. When your high usage offensive players can't hit, then everyone tightens up and the lid goes on the rim.

If you're bigs can't shoot, then you're deepening shooting slumps and handicapping your ability to dig out of them by making it so that only a couple of players are capable of sparking the team as a whole.

When Curry couldn't buy a shot in that 7 quarter span from game two to the middle of the third quarter in game three, you saw it drag the whole team down. Barnes couldn't hit, Iggy couldn't hit, Green couldn't hit. The ball was hot-potatoing and the offensive limitations of many of their players became painfully apparent. These guys are streak shooters, they need feed off Curry and Thompson. Without any bigs that can knock down shots and bust up opposing runs, the offense can become really fragile against playoff caliber D.

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I thought Cleveland did a good job of abusing the small ball line up, and it wasn't just Mozgov.  Thompson had 12 points on 60% shooting.

 

Plus GS was in the penalty in both halfs.  Green ended up with 5 fouls.

 

Cleveland made them pay plenty for going small.

 

The difference was in the energy the two teams had and that Cleveland went away from what they were doing to control the break some.  GS was able to get out and run and get some fast breaks and get some loose ball/offensive rebounds this game.

 

In the other games, Cleveland was able to limit those things.  Those things help GS find its offense and get comfortable.

Edited by PeterMP
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Getting back to the initial position of the Threes and FTs only philosophy effecting roster construction: I think it, counterintuitively, led to a worse shooting roster for Golden State. You're simply not going to find a five man big rotation with multiple three point shooters. You're always sacrificing something with big men because there are so few that are complete. And if you don't place any value on a big shooting well from 18 feet, then odds are you're going to pick a bunch of guys who can't do it. Which is how Golden State ended up with a front court rotation with extremely limited offensive value.

 

The problem with Bogut though is not just that he can't hit an 18 footer.  It is also that on the pick and roll, he's not much of a threat around the basket, and he isn't really a good passer.

 

Bogut essentially gives you zero offensive value.

 

Lee is clearly a better finisher around the basket and a better passer.

 

It isn't like Lee is hitting a bunch of mid range jump shots.  The offense looks better with Lee not because Lee is a good mid-range jump shooter, but because he does something else that is value based on analytics and that is scoring at the rim and passing

 

Yeah, a guy that can hit an 18 ft. jumper would be better than Bogut right now because Bogut gives you essentially nothing and anything is better than nothing.

 

There's nothing in analytics that says having a 5 that essentially gives you nothing is a good thing.

 

(Though, again I think the biggest difference is energy.  Lee, partly probably because he's more rested than Bogut, is just able to bring more energy on the defensive and offensive side and that make a big difference.  Lee is clearly a plus on offense to Bogut, and at least now (with Lee fresh and Bogut at least partly worn down), it is at best a push on defense and maybe even a plus for Lee.)

Edited by PeterMP
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Side note... I seem to recall Tristan Thompson turning down a contract extension.

I do not recall seeing him signing up for a new one.

 

Hmmm... He wants more and is playing like it.

 

Is he a Dennis Rodman type of guy to you guys ? That's where I see him.

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Bogut is hesitant to dunk the ball when he has a clear path to the rim. He's not hitting shots on a pick n pop.

I also suspect that he didn't take getting bench well. He went out there and fouled his way to the bench in three minutes.

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Barnes couldn't hit, Iggy couldn't hit, Green couldn't hit. The ball was hot-potatoing and the offensive limitations of many of their players became painfully apparent. These guys are streak shooters, they need feed off Curry and Thompson. Without any bigs that can knock down shots and bust up opposing runs, the offense can become really fragile against playoff caliber D.

 

I think Cleveland isn't closing out as well or rotating as well.  They gave people more in rhythm wide open looks.

 

I also think the fast break is useful in terms of getting people comfortable and in a flow and GS clearly got more fast breaks.

Edited by PeterMP
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I thought Cleveland did a good job of abusing the small ball line up, and it wasn't just Mozgov.  Thompson had 12 points on 60% shooting.

 

Plus GS was in the penalty in both halfs.

 

The difference was in the energy the two teams had and that Cleveland went away from what they were doing to control the break some.  GS was able to get out and run and get some fast breaks and get some loose ball/offensive rebounds this game.

 

In the other games, Cleveland was able to limit those things.

 

Golden State is an excellent offensive club, but they can also be careless.

 

I'm losing track of games now, but was it Game 3 where Steph threw a behind the back pass out of bounds with under two to go? That wasn't pressure or boneheadeness....that was just what GS does sometimes. And if you limit their possessions they way Cleveland has done by milking clock and getting offensive rebounds, you make each of those turnovers stand out. No one cares that you throw the ball into the bleachers on a 2 on 1 if you are scoring 30 a quarter. It matters when you score 20.

I think Cleveland isn't closing out as well or rotating as well.  They gave people more in rhythm wide open looks.

 

 

 

Cleveland HAS to be wearing down. Dellavadova is playing double his average minutes in the freakin' Finals. Lebron is being asked to do more than any player has ever had to do in a Finals. They are basically playing 6 dudes and three of them are meant by God to play between 15 and 20 minutes per game, not 33.

 

Here's the thing though. It's a 3 game series and JR Smith is more than capable of pulling a random 6 for 8 from the 3 pt line game out of his behind.

Edited by Lombardi's_kid_brother
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Bogut is hesitant to dunk the ball when he has a clear path to the rim. He's not hitting shots on a pick n pop.

I also suspect that he didn't take getting bench well. He went out there and fouled his way to the bench in three minutes.

 

It was the most effective that he has played the entire series thus far.

 

I'm losing track of games now, but was it Game 3 where Steph threw a behind the back pass out of bounds with under two to go?

 

Cleveland HAS to be wearing down.

 

Here's the thing though. It's a 3 game series and JR Smith is more than capable of pulling a random 6 for 8 from the 3 pt line game out of his behind.

 

Steph lost that game for them. They didn't deserve to win the game...but he lost that game.

 

There was the no call on LeBron...but Steph was not doing what he does.

 

Cleveland is worn down to the last hurrah. I don't believe Smith has the stones to even attempt 8 in a finals game.

 

Still going with Dubs in 6.

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