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Execution56

Would you trade Fred Davis to Patriots for a 3rd or 4th round pick?

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So Fred Davis just finished his 5th NFL season. Here's how he stacks up with Cooley during that time (Cooley's first 5 seasons):

 

Davis: 62 games played (not started, played), 155 catches for 1973 yards (12.7 Avg) and 12 TDs

 

Cooley: 80 games played (again, not started) 314 catches for 3457 yards (11.0 Avg) and 28 TDs.

 

Cooley's 5th season was 2008, the year Freddy was drafted. That's when the ideas first started popping up to trade Cooley. The idea that Cooley could get some good value for the team while giving a younger, more talented player a chance to shine was met with criticism. Why trade a proven value for an untested rookie? Meanwhile, outsides of TDs, 2010 would be Cooley's strongest statistical season. Then he hit his wall and '11 and '12 he was barely a factor. Just a year after getting almost 800 yards, Cooley was basically out of the NFL at age 29.

 

So now we got Davis, a vet with more potential than Cooley ever had but already a worse injury history, and it's almost like dejavu. Davis is a year older than Cooley was at this point in his career, and the guy behind him is only a rookie instead of having a year under his belt, but otherwise it's the same.

 

But the biggest difference is this: by the end of year 5 Cooley was locked up long term. In '07, he signed a 6 year extension so he was locked up long term. Right now Davis is on a 1 year deal. There was no chance of Cooley leaving and having his impressive 2010 season elsewhere while we got nothing in return. If Davis could fetch us a 3rd (or better) this year, then we should seriously listen. Davis has an injury history and suspension history (neither of which Cooley had), and could still walk away at the end of the year for  another team leaving us with nothing but  the hope for a comp pick in 2015.

 

I can understand that the premise of the hypothetical deal to the Patriots irritates people, but pretend it's another team. Pretend the Browns want a receiving threat for Weeden, or the Dolphins want somebody who can catch a damn ball. You telling me you'd  turn them down just as fast? Fred Davis is not untradable, not be a long shot.

 

 

If the people who didn't want to trade Cooley at his most valuable were just blind homers still mesmerized by the Cowboys game in '05, then the people who don't want to trade Davis because he'll somehow take us from  a 10-6 division winner to Super Bowl champ are...?

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The fact we gave a TE a six year extension in the era of the cap is another illustration of how foolish the FO used to be. 

 

~Bang

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When I was younger I was more attached to players...now that I'm older I'm on Shanahan's mantra of doing what's in the best interest of the team lol So Besides Robert I really don't care who comes and goes so long as it makes sense and is to our advantage.

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Never been a fan of trading away talent, especially when/if doing so makes a unit noticeably weaker. Niles Paul can't catch (yet), Reed is a complete unknown, and as much as I love Paulsen his upside is incredibly limited. Right now I don't see anyone beneath Davis that makes me confident in letting him go...at least when the Cooley trades started surfacing it was after Davis filled in for him in 2009 and produced.

 

I think for some fans, there's an insatiable desire for draft picks lol...Shanahan, Allen and their scouts have proven to me that they can get extra draft picks if needed without trading starters, and that they can maximize pretty much every round for quality players.

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Never been a fan of trading away talent, especially when/if doing so makes a unit noticeably weaker. Niles Paul can't catch (yet), Reed is a complete unknown, and as much as I love Paulsen his upside is incredibly limited. Right now I don't see anyone beneath Davis that makes me confident in letting him go...at least when the Cooley trades started surfacing it was after Davis filled in for him in 2009 and produced.

 

I think for some fans, there's an insatiable desire for draft picks lol...Shanahan, Allen and their scouts have proven to me that they can get extra draft picks if needed without trading starters, and that they can maximize pretty much every round for quality players.

We're certainly not to the point where we have the luxury of looking for partners to trade starters.. eventually maybe, but we're too early in the overall rebuild to do it. We haven't had time to build the second level talent enough yet.

(When i say "rebuild" i don't mean just building to become a winner,, i'm talking about the ultimate goal of becoming a winner for an extended period of time.. 8-10 years worth of glory. )

the reason the Pats / Steelers can afford to trade or lose players is because they know that they've got the next guy there already.

For us right now if we make almost any trade it's going to leave us a hole.

 

in a couple years though....  B)

 

~Bang

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I don't know how much we can really compare Cooley and Davis, simply because comparing athlete to athlete is always a risky proposition, in terms of when they run out of gas.  I mean, Tony Gonzalez survived the KT Impact and is still chugging away.  Moss might have lost a step, but is still a great option all over the place.  Brett Farve was literally the first complex land dwelling creature on Earth.

 

By comparison, Phillip Rivers looks nearly spent and is only 31, Plaxico Burress last had a 1K season when he was 30, and hasn't been close since, night club or no night club, and Kellen Winslow is 29 and already has 1 unproductive season under his belt.

 

Different players age differently, so I'm a bit leery of comparing these two guys.  I certainly had hoped Cooley would last longer, but that he didn't doesn't necessarily mean Davis won't last longer.  I think if Davis recovers he'll get back on track in terms of injury, he'll be in the prime of his career, and will likely be a 600-800 yard TE for us for 3-5 years, while we also mold Reed.  Hopefully this time the dynamic dual TE sets we dreamed of with Cooley/Davis will come to fruition.

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Never been a fan of trading away talent, especially when/if doing so makes a unit noticeably weaker. Niles Paul can't catch (yet), Reed is a complete unknown, and as much as I love Paulsen his upside is incredibly limited. Right now I don't see anyone beneath Davis that makes me confident in letting him go...at least when the Cooley trades started surfacing it was after Davis filled in for him in 2009 and produced.

 

I think for some fans, there's an insatiable desire for draft picks lol...Shanahan, Allen and their scouts have proven to me that they can get extra draft picks if needed without trading starters, and that they can maximize pretty much every round for quality players.

We're certainly not to the point where we have the luxury of looking for partners to trade starters.. eventually maybe, but we're too early in the overall rebuild to do it. We haven't had time to build the second level talent enough yet.

(When i say "rebuild" i don't mean just building to become a winner,, i'm talking about the ultimate goal of becoming a winner for an extended period of time.. 8-10 years worth of glory. )

the reason the Pats / Steelers can afford to trade or lose players is because they know that they've got the next guy there already.

For us right now if we make almost any trade it's going to leave us a hole.

 

in a couple years though....  B)

 

~Bang

 

In a couple years...definitely lol. Letting starters go and not missing a beat. And RG3 will just be, what...17? lol

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Fred was off to a VERY good year before his injury.  If Reed can develop, and play like Shanny thinks (YES-think about it; there was a reason we took him so high) he will, our offense will, have a whole new dimension.  Let's throw Thompson in that mix too.  Our offensive dynamics, if all falls into place, (never a given as we know), we could well take a quantum leap this year.  I don't know, and who really does, but I DO know it's a hellva good time to have these discussions and be a "Skins fan.  I've been there since '69 and is is so friggin' great to hear my DAUGHTERS (4 of them) excited about football....in June/July!!  Good times....enjoy!!  HTTR

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The problem is the "if Fred could fetch us a third" part.

 

Fred's got as much chance of being traded for a third round pick as I do. The health concerns, the drug history, all of that is perfectly valid reasons to be wary of the guy. I get that.

 

 

If we all know and understand that Fred's got issues, even in a pure hypothetical sense, why would a football team risk a third round pick on a guy who's coming on a big injury, is a suspension away from being out of the league for a year, and is on a one year deal and looking for a big day, not to mention adding him to camp late in the process?

 

 

If there was a team stupid enough to make that move, I'd start wondering if Vinny "trade two number ones for Ochocinco" Cerrato was the GM. And then I'd try to fleece them for everything they had.

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The problem is the "if Fred could fetch us a third" part.

Fred's got as much chance of being traded for a third round pick as I do. The health concerns, the drug history, all of that is perfectly valid reasons to be wary of the guy. I get that.

If we all know and understand that Fred's got issues, even in a pure hypothetical sense, why would a football team risk a third round pick on a guy who's coming on a big injury, is a suspension away from being out of the league for a year, and is on a one year deal and looking for a big day, not to mention adding him to camp late in the process?

If there was a team stupid enough to make that move, I'd start wondering if Vinny "trade two number ones for Ochocinco" Cerrato was the GM. And then I'd try to fleece them for everything they had.

And to add to the point, even a third in 2014 doesn't help the 'Skins in 2013.

Why would you live with giving something up this year that is mostly a known comodity for a crap shoot, 3rd round pick next year is beyond me.

My premise is not that a 3rd rounder is not helpful, it's just that it's not helpful NOW. And you're trading value that can help today for something that might/might not help down the road.

To me, the whole topic is silly. The reason players get traded, for the most part, is that they are a headache. Fred has not been a headache recently. He's got good value, the team likes him, and he's playing on a 1 year deal.

It's not going to happen. And the whole topic is just silly.

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An achilles injury is a career-threatening injury.  It makes RG3's second knee injury look like a toothache.  There are very few players that return from these injuries with any meaningful amount of athleticism left.

 

Furthermore, even when healthy Fred was only a minor upgrade from Logan Paulsen.  Look at their numbers.  Look at their advanced stats.  We get just about the same production out of both of them.

 

Couple the above facts with Fred's potential to be out of the league for an entire year on a moment's notice, and I would take just about any draft pick we can get for this guy.  He was a good TE before the injury.  But we have another good TE on the roster.  We also just drafted a TE.

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In this round the player is generally...

1st round - starter, no glaring bad marks

2nd - contributor and eventual starter, maybe a question here or there

3rd - possibly has 1st round talent, but has obvious questions. High boom or bust potential

 

I actually think a 3rd is pretty good for Davis in light of what's above.

I also think our new safeties are 3rd round value. Rambo was an absolute steal. it's like Allen held someone at gunpoint.



An achilles injury is a career-threatening injury.  It makes RG3's second knee injury look like a toothache.  There are very few players that return from these injuries with any meaningful amount of athleticism left.

 

Furthermore, even when healthy Fred was only a minor upgrade from Logan Paulsen.  Look at their numbers.  Look at their advanced stats.  We get just about the same production out of both of them.

 

Couple the above facts with Fred's potential to be out of the league for an entire year on a moment's notice, and I would take just about any draft pick we can get for this guy.  He was a good TE before the injury.  But we have another good TE on the roster.  We also just drafted a TE.

Yeah... Davis is over rated. I'd fall over myself to accept if they offered a 3rd.

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Furthermore, even when healthy Fred was only a minor upgrade from Logan Paulsen.  Look at their numbers.  Look at their advanced stats.  We get just about the same production out of both of them.

 

Couple the above facts with Fred's potential to be out of the league for an entire year on a moment's notice, and I would take just about any draft pick we can get for this guy.  He was a good TE before the injury.  But we have another good TE on the roster.  We also just drafted a TE.

 

This is a completely ridiculous assertion. Fred is far and away better than Paulsen. They are not even close to the same player for as good as Paulsen is. 

 

Also, the weed is in the past for Fred, we have to take him at his word that he has matured and won't chance it again. We should trust the coaches and players. Trent Williams is a moment's notice away from another long suspension too. I guess we should trade him since we drafted a T last year and have a few more on the roster. It's just too risky to keep either on the roster.

 

I really hope RG3 never makes a mistake or else we will be shipping him out too and bringing up the mistake years after the fact. 

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Furthermore, even when healthy Fred was only a minor upgrade from Logan Paulsen.  Look at their numbers.  Look at their advanced stats.  We get just about the same production out of both of them.

 

Couple the above facts with Fred's potential to be out of the league for an entire year on a moment's notice, and I would take just about any draft pick we can get for this guy.  He was a good TE before the injury.  But we have another good TE on the roster.  We also just drafted a TE.

 

This is a completely ridiculous assertion. Fred is far and away better than Paulsen. They are not even close to the same player for as good as Paulsen is. 

 

Also, the weed is in the past for Fred, we have to take him at his word that he has matured and won't chance it again. We should trust the coaches and players. Trent Williams is a moment's notice away from another long suspension too. I guess we should trade him since we drafted a T last year and have a few more on the roster. It's just too risky to keep either on the roster.

 

I really hope RG3 never makes a mistake or else we will be shipping him out too and bringing up the mistake years after the fact. 

 

It's not ridiculous at all.  It's more ridiculous to argue that Fred Davis is obviously far and away better than Paulsen than to argue to they offer more or less the same production.

 

Put together a coherent Davis>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Paulsen argument.  I'd like to see it.

 

Their conventional stats are more or less the same.  Davis had higher highs and lower lows - his 5 target, 14 yard performance against St Louis stands out as easily the worst game by either one, but his 2 week stretch against Cin and TB where he had 11 catches on 11 targets for 160 yards stands out as easily the best.  Paulsen was more consistently efficient, with no huge standout performances.

 

As for their advanced stats, footballoutsiders ranks Paulsen as the #4 TE in 2012 based on per-play efficiency.  Pro Football Focus put together the below list of 1st downs & TDs as a percentage of targets, and Davis ranked #3 in the league with Paulsen at #7.  Additionally, they did a list of 1st downs & TDs as a percentage of routes run and Paulsen ranked #6 in the league (Davis presumably ranked very high on this as well, but was not shown probably due to limited snaps).

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/sig-stats-first-downs-touchdowns-conversion-percentage-tes/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/sig-stats-first-downs-touchdowns-per-route-run-tes/

 

Two final points:

 

(1) Fred Davis of 2012 is not the same as Fred Davis of 2013.  He has a ridiculously serious injury.  Look at the headline to this article:

 

http://lowerextremityreview.com/article/return-to-football-after-achilles-tendon-rupture

 

"Only two-thirds of National Football League players ever come back, and those who do find their performance significantly affected. But research suggests a prodromal period may offer opportunities for early intervention."

 

Paulsen may drop back to earth, too.  But the likelihood of a big dropoff is a lot higher with Davis.  I would rather have another team assume that risk while giving us some form of compensation now.

 

(2) Redskins 2012 record with Davis playing a full game: 3-3

Redskins 2012 record with Paulsen playing a full game: 7-4 (I'm giving him the first NYG game)

 

It's not a definitive stat or anything, but it definitely makes you wonder.  Davis has basically made his career off of being the best receiving threat amongst an awful corps of receivers.  Here's our record with Fred and without Fred since he exploded onto the scene in

 

2008: Backed up Cooley the whole year

 

2009: With - 2-8

2009: Without - 2-4

 

2010: Backed up Cooley the whole year

 

2011: With - 4-8

2011: Without - 1-3

 

2012: With - 3-3

2012: Without - 7-4

 

In summary, we are 9-19 with Fred Davis as a starter and 10-11 with someone else playing (8-7 when it's Davis' backup, Paulsen).

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In summary, we are 9-19 with Fred Davis as a starter and 10-11 with someone else playing (8-7 when it's Davis' backup, Paulsen).

 

You can't use win-loss records when comparing TEs. If you're gonna use any team stat, you should use the passing offense when either TE is starting, then use the rushing offense when either TE is on the field. Win-Loss records don't mean anything.

 

You can also use the YAC stat, broken/missed tackles caused stat, percentage of receptions that went for a 1st down stat...stuff like that there.

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In summary, we are 9-19 with Fred Davis as a starter and 10-11 with someone else playing (8-7 when it's Davis' backup, Paulsen).

 

You can't use win-loss records when comparing TEs. If you're gonna use any team stat, you should use the passing offense when either TE is starting, then use the rushing offense when either TE is on the field. Win-Loss records don't mean anything.

 

You can also use the YAC stat, broken/missed tackles caused stat, percentage of receptions that went for a 1st down stat...stuff like that there.

 

It's one small thing to consider in addition to the other statistical evidence, almost all of which indicates that Logan Paulsen does not present a large drop-off from Fred Davis.  We have not historically been a successful team when Fred Davis gets a lot of targets - I think that's something that merits at least a small bit of consideration.

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I don't have numbers on hand, mainly because this is on a phone, but Fred Davis getting a ton of targets generally coincides with our receiving corp being really poor. In 2011 we had Gaffney and Moss being our only two productive receivers, and in 2012 we had no Garcon during Davis' games.

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Even if Davis has a great year in 13

we still have to wonder if Shanahan

will give him a big contract due to his injuries and drug problems.

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I don't think the Redskins are even talking to the Patriots about a trade. Haven't heard anything yet. But if they do, Fred Davis was a 2nd round pick and has performed pretty much like a 2nd round pick when he is on the field, so he should fetch a 2nd round pick. I would do that deal in a minute considering Fred has a one year contract but I doubt that the Patriots are THAT desperate. But who knows?

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The Patriots always have always drafted players to replace stars when they leave or get injured. This is done years in advanced so when its time for them to step up and show there stuff they're well prepared.

The Pats aren't going to give up a lot if anything to replace Hernandez.

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Never been a fan of trading away talent, especially when/if doing so makes a unit noticeably weaker. Niles Paul can't catch (yet), Reed is a complete unknown, and as much as I love Paulsen his upside is incredibly limited. Right now I don't see anyone beneath Davis that makes me confident in letting him go...at least when the Cooley trades started surfacing it was after Davis filled in for him in 2009 and produced.

 

I think for some fans, there's an insatiable desire for draft picks lol...Shanahan, Allen and their scouts have proven to me that they can get extra draft picks if needed without trading starters, and that they can maximize pretty much every round for quality players.

We're certainly not to the point where we have the luxury of looking for partners to trade starters.. eventually maybe, but we're too early in the overall rebuild to do it. We haven't had time to build the second level talent enough yet.

(When i say "rebuild" i don't mean just building to become a winner,, i'm talking about the ultimate goal of becoming a winner for an extended period of time.. 8-10 years worth of glory. )

the reason the Pats / Steelers can afford to trade or lose players is because they know that they've got the next guy there already.

For us right now if we make almost any trade it's going to leave us a hole.

 

in a couple years though....  B)

 

~Bang

 

 

The Pats certainly didn't have anyone to replace Gronk or Hernandez. They had to pay to get Amendola and they wee fine letting Edelman explore free agency before they re-signed him. They're praying Dobson can finally become an outside receiving threat after they released Moss, they couldn't put with Lloyd.

 

Brady covers up a bunch of holes on that team. I still find "The Patriots Way" to be one of the more overrated, overblown things in the NFL. The Patriots were successful because for a lot of years they had better talent than everyone else, not because of their philosophy. And one could make the argument that on a strict talent basis they've gotten worse and worse and worse since Pioli left in 2009.

 

They've got Brady, and that o-line, and right now that's about it. They replaced an all-pro and Brady's favorite target for the past 6 years with a receiver that's never played 16 games and never topped 1,000 yards. They're still holding out hope that Dobson turns out to be the next Randy Moss. They dumped all the money they won't spend on receivers or veterans into one position. One guy just had his fifth surgery and won't start the beginning of the season. Due to circumstances completely out of their control, the other is likely looking at life in prison. But again, they invested all their money, with limited cap space at that one position.

 

 

The idea of what the Patriots do is better than what the practical application of their values is. They cut veterans, often creating larger holes and bigger problems. They cut a 26-year-old player with a treatable, manageable form of diabetes to sign a 32-year-old veteran.

 

They do have Brady and that o-line. And basically **** all else. And you can win a lot of regular season games with that, but it's hard to win a championship with it.

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1st of all...I am not sure why we are talking about the Patriots and doing reviews of their team moves and strengths. This is a Redskins board.  2nd of all...repeat the first sentence.

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