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One of the Redskins BIGGEST continued failings, both sides of the ball: 3rd down conversions/ stops.


Gibbs Hog Heaven

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I'm just spit balling conceptually on 3rd and short.

I wonder what our success rate is on 3rd and short and what we've been doing on those 3rd and shorts?

Based on stats form Football Outsiders: abysmal.

These are some stats I was looking at from FootballOutsiders in anticipation of starting another thread.on the perception of the OL vs. the reality.

•Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

Redskins Rank: 27 Raw number:50%

•Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

Redskins rank: 16 Raw number 18%

With only a "good" OL, two yards on 3rd down or 4th down is almost a given (26 out 32 teams are better than 50% succes rates). The Skins rank 27th of 32 teams in those same situations at exactly 50%. On the "stuffed" stat, the Skins hit the NFL Average right on the nose with roughly 1 out of 5 being the stat for the Skins. With the Skins, again, the lack of an offensive line that, according to the stats is at best average or at worst, abysmal, third down and short for the Skins is not going to be a running play because you can't depend on the OL to open the hole. Make an offense one-sided in any given situation and the defense is going to have the advantage.

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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2012

With only a "good" OL, two yards on 3rd down or 4th down is almost a given (26 out 32 teams are better than 50% succes rates). The Skins rank 27th of 32 teams in those same situations at exactly 50%. On the "stuffed" stat, the Skins hit the NFL Average right on the nose with roughly 1 out of 5 being the stat for the Skins. With the Skins, again, the lack of an offensive line that, according to the stats is at best average or at worst, abysmal, third down and short for the Skins is not going to be a running play because you can't depend on the OL to open the hole. Make an offense one-sided in any given situation and the defense is going to have the advantage.
I forgot to check FBO. Thanks.

The struggles on 3rd and short are about what I figured. And I hope the offense as a better/different plan on 3rd and short then a power run from a power run formation.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the 'stuffed' mark being right about average, I bet Alfred Morris helps them out with that stat with his ability to stay up and run through initial contact.

I hope you start that other thread, I look forward to reading it.

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;) lol, good there must be ying-yang for the convergence of the force.

But I think a good sample size would include teams from the top, middle and basement of 3rd +6 conversion rates.

Like maybe the teams that rank #1, #2, #16, #17, #30, #31?

..... But don't let me ruin a good thread... I'm interested in seeing that sample size getting bigger. ;)

He who asks:

As we currently stand, those positions based on total 3rd down conversion rate are as follows:-

1. Steelers. 5 Games/ 52%.

2. Falcons. 5 Games/ 48%.

16. Packers. 5 Games/ 40%.

17. 49ers. 5 Games/ 40 %.

30. Buccaneers. 4 Games/ 26%.

31. Bengals. 5 Games/ 25%.

With the Redskins 32nd overall at 23% from 5 games.

On the season to date, the 3rd + 6 conversion rate of the above teams are as follows:-

Steelers. 46.8 %. 22/ 47. 1 TD.

49ers. 40. 7%. 11/ 27. 1 TD.

Falcons. 36.7 %. 11/ 30.

Packers. 21.6 %. 8/ 37.

Redskins. 17. 4%. 8/ 46. 1 TD.

Buccaneers. 17. 1%. 6/ 35. 2 TD.

Bengals. 14. 7 %. 5/ 34. 2 TD/ 1 Pass Int. for TD.

I have the individual downs if your interested, though that should suffice. Anything else and you can can research yourself!

Hail.

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Even in GHH larger sample size Griffin's number of 3rd and long attempts (25) does not represent a larger then normal amount.

Heck, this sample size shows we're in 3rd and long less often then those other teams; we're just remarkably inefficient at converting them.

Here is an interesting interview from Greg Cosell where he gives his opinion on the 3rd down struggles:

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_skinned.php?s=65&c=426&f=771831

http://www.espn980.com/audiovault/#

Am I reading it wrong? I'm seeing that we have 46 3rd and 6+ (not 25) attempts on the season... that's actually a lot. And it's more than the Bucs and Bengals who are almost as bad as us at getting 3rd down conversions.

I don't know, am I missing it?

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Am I reading it wrong? I'm seeing that we have 46 3rd and 6+ (not 25) attempts on the season... that's actually a lot. And it's more than the Bucs and Bengals who are almost as bad as us at getting 3rd down conversions.

I don't know, am I missing it?

No, you're not reading it wrong I was.

But when I compile the numbers from ESPN I got different numbers...shrugs...

You should listen to the Cosell interview, it pretty much sums up what I've been seeing.

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No, you're not reading it wrong I was.

But when I compile the numbers from ESPN I got different numbers...shrugs...

Ok, lol... I was freaking out.

So, at the very least, I think these stats should ease our concerns a bit. It may not be that we're just awful on 3rd down as much as our 3rd downs are too long too many times. We need to be more consistent on 1st and 2nd down, and we need to stop getting penalties. Still, I really find it hard to talk like this so long as our offense can keep scoring like they've been. I understand the whole ball control issue but as a Skins fan scoring TDs no matter how they come is delicious.

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Ok, lol... I was freaking out.

So, at the very least, I think these stats should ease our concerns a bit. It may not be that we're just awful on 3rd down as much as our 3rd downs are too long too many times. We need to be more consistent on 1st and 2nd down, and we need to stop getting penalties......

Well, deducting the 6+ yardage, which we'll class as long for the purpose of this, we're 3 of 14 in short to medium 3rd down yardage conversations. 21. 4%.

We pretty much suck on third down whatever the distance.

And using our 7 team comparison above, the other teams are thus on short to medium yardage third downs:

Packers. 17/ 26. 64. 4%.

Steelers. 18/ 30. 60%.

Falcons. 21/ 36. 58. 3%.

49ers. 11/ 26. 42. 3%.

Bengals. 10/ 27. 37%.

Buccaneers. 7/ 26. 26. 9%.

Hail.

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So, at the very least, I think these stats should ease our concerns a bit. It may not be that we're just awful on 3rd down as much as our 3rd downs are too long too many times.
I'm not sure there are concerns to be eased, as much as making observations for improvement. I disagree with the characterization that being in 3rd and long often is the reason the 3rd down conversion rate is low. I would be more apt to agree if we were at or near league average converting 3rd and 6+; but we're not. Ultimately 3rd +6 conversion rate is gonna be a testament to what an offense can do in the passing game.

And the passing attack or lack there of is the main area holding back the 3rd and +6 conversion rate.

We need to be more consistent on 1st and 2nd down, and we need to stop getting penalties. Still, I really find it hard to talk like this so long as our offense can keep scoring like they've been. I understand the whole ball control issue but as a Skins fan scoring TDs no matter how they come is delicious.
Ball control is not an issue for me in this disucssion, that's a whole 'nother ball of wax.

---------- Post added October-13th-2012 at 05:42 PM ----------

How far into the show dg?

Hail.

Not long its the 2nd or 3rd question in the interview.

Here is a direct link to the interview:

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_skinned.php?s=65&c=426&f=771831

---------- Post added October-13th-2012 at 05:44 PM ----------

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This is a direct link to the Cosell interview:

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_skinned.php?s=65&c=426&f=771831

Yup, Campbell more or less rubber stamps what we discussed earlier that we'd be better set up in the spread as we can't power block/ run for ****.

0/ 10 in third and 2, 3 or 4? That's beyond abysmal for a pro football team.

Hail.

I actually didn't listen to the Campbell interview (but I will now).

in post #76 http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?371726-One-of-the-Redskins-BIGGEST-continued-failings-both-sides-of-the-ball-3rd-down-conversions-stops.&p=9204525&viewfull=1#post9204525 wildbill pointed this out:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2012

•Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

Redskins Rank: 27 Raw number:50%

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Greg Cosell, Oct 10 @ 01:03

Q:Any Idea why the Redskins are so bad on 3rd dwn?

I think quite frankly their pass game is very run-action based and I think its a very simple pass game. Which by the way most rookie QBs run a fairly simple pass game. So I think they struggle when they have longer yardage situations. I don't think they're difficult to defend conceptually. And I think that's just a function of what they have, their offense is really..its a base run game and a simple pass game that features play action with either or reads. Which is very smart by Shanahan but on 3rd and long that's very difficult to do.
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Alright - I think i tracked this right. Versus the Vikings, the Skins were 7 of 12 on 3rd downs, 7 for their last 8!

Again - Santana looks to be the go to guy on 3rd downs, and I'm very happy to see them give the ball to Morris on a few. He only converted one before today.

3rd and 17 – 7 yard pass to Royster

3rd and 3 – Interception

3rd and 8 – 5 yard pass to Moss

3rd and 13 – Incomplete pass

3rd and 4 – 5 yard pass to Moss

3rd and goal (1) – Morris 1 yard TD

3rd and 1 – Morris 1 yard run

3rd and 11 – RGIII 15 yard run (plus 5 yard penalty)

3rd and 2 – RGIII 4 yard run

3rd and 11 – RGIII 8 yard run

3rd and 1 – Morris -3 yard run

3rd and 11 – RGIII 76 yard TD run

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3rd and 17 – 7 yard pass to Royster

Bunch Right, Shotgun

Play: RB screen (L) give up play

WR.....................T..G..C..G..T........TE..WR

............................................................FL

....................................Q..RB...............

3rd and 3 – Interception

Bunch Left, FL motion Right

PA-zone read boot left w/ WR shallow cross

WR..WR.................T..G..C..G..T....TE.......

..............................................................FL

........................................Q..RB.................

Looked like Morgan was open early on the crosser (can't tell without all-22)

Griffin could likely have ran for the 1st had he taken a more acute/direct angle

3rd and 8 – 5 yard pass to Moss

All WR Pistol

Read option shovel pass to Moss

WR...................T..G..C..G..T.............WR

.........................................................................FL

............................89..Q.......................................

..................................16

On 3rd and 8 would rather see Griffin pass from PA or straight then his options limited to a shovel pictch read

3rd and 13 – Incomplete pass

Spread 2x2

Zone-read shovel pass

..................WR...........T..G..C..G..T..............WR

FL..................................................................................FL

...................................46.....Q

Another 'managed' play on 3rd down where Griffin is confined to a shovel pitch read.

This is my favorite formation too, I would much rather see Griffin pass from action or just drop back and read his progressions

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  • 11 months later...

Almost a year on, I'm bumping this as it's as pertinent and worrying a continued trend as it was both when the OP was written 2 days after the Falcons dropped us to 2-3 last year and right through Kyle Shanahan and Jim Haslett's tenure as respective coordinators here in DC. 

 

To update the OP to date:

 

Kyle's third down record went down last year from the previous years increase, as his unit dropped back 7 spots to joint 22nd overall. (68/ 190- 36%.). Leaving him with a less than auspicious 33.9 % third down success rate in his time as our OC. (226/ 667.). Marginally over a third of the total number of third downs he's called have we remained on the field. That's beyond shocking whichever way you cut it. And this year to date, we're regressing again. Currently we sit joint 25th, with a 'whopping' 32% third down success rate. (16-50). 

 

Not surprisingly, this being Kyle Shanahan, there's a BIG disparity between pass and run in those 50 third down attempts this year. (42 pass attempts- 8 runs.). Now even taking into account the putrid state of the offense and the QB and O-line in particular, this is even more ridiculous when 19 of those plays have been third and short, through which we've run the rock just FOUR times. (2 made. 1 resulting in a TD.). We're 7/ 15 with 2 TD's passing on third and short. On all third down attempts made in 2013, the success rate is 28. 6% passing (3 TD's)/ 37. 5 % running the ball. (1 TD.). 

 

And people wonder why some of us have a BIG problem with the OC's calling of games oft times .....

 

 

Over on the D, it's better reading, but FAR from where it needs to be if we're to seriously challenge for honors again. Again, updating the OP, Haslett's group in 2012 made a stunning leap from 17th to joint 1st overall. (95 stops from 215 third downs faced- 44%.). His unit has actually improved year on year in this category to an overall record of 38.7%. (267/ 690.). Around the middle of the pack. Not bad by any means. But not great either. This year, the medium continues as we've currently slipped right back to joint 17th in the NFL in third down stops. (20/ 55- 36%.). 

 

The interesting thing there is the third and longs we've put opposing D's in the first 4 games this year. 33 times we've forced a third and long. 13 times we've failed. 39.4 %. Over a third of the time we can't get the opposing O off the field in third and long. This has resulted in 5 TD's and a FG being conceded through which we failed to stop those drives in third and long situations on no less than 9 occasions. So much for an increased pass rush huh?

 

One thing that HAS to change over the bye, if nothing else does; is our continued atrocious third down record. 

 

The D HAS to start getting more stops and momentum changing third down plays. 

 

And the O HAS to figure out a way to convert it's third downs and stay on the darn field with longer drives. 

 

If we don't figure this abysmal record out, we'll continue to go nowhere. And BOTH coordinators play an equal part in this woeful situation that continues to blight and hinder our football team. 

 

NO play in football is more important than the third down. And we suck massively at it. 

 

Hail. 

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We are so hell bent on play action, I would be interested to see us starting to buck the pass happy trend of the league, and run on 3rd and 3. Be the only team in the league. 20 years ago, 3rd and 3 was a run down.

 

When you have the top rated running game, aren't we dumb to not run it on those 3rd and shorts?  Now I know we are not going to get a push, but run our stretches, etc. Do  our silly little bunch and run the other way. Or, live dangerous and go 4 wide and run up the gut some. 

 

Be a run team proper. Do our thing, and work the play action

 

Its gotta do better than whatever it is we are doing on 3rd down; I think its obvious teams know we will pass and that is the time we struggle. 

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We should run spread formation read-option on 3rd and short.

Our 3rd down conversion rate has been a long standing weak spot for this offense/playcaller for this regime.

Totally agree.

You know what I really like about it? It puts many of our best blockers (relative to their matchups) on the field in Garçon, Morgan and Hankerson.

Seems kinda obvious, as many have stated, that on D the corners need to play press man to try to eliminate the quick passing attack that's been so successful against them. The pass rushers need a chance to get home. This has the added benefit of opening up the corner blitzes. And they need to quit putting the inside backers so close to the line - they need all the help they can get in the passing game (getting to their marks).

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