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One of the Redskins BIGGEST continued failings, both sides of the ball: 3rd down conversions/ stops.


Gibbs Hog Heaven

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Robert audibled on those plays though.

The defense had to show wide d-tackles. Then it was basically like stealing. If he didn't get that look he didn't call for that play, basically.

Right. But if your stretching the D by setting up out of the spread, it certainly opens things up more and gives you more scope than trying to power the rock behind a struggling line in those situations.

Hail.

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It's so perplexing to me. Our first downs come primarily from long runs by Morris or a long pass on first or second down. It just seams that Kyle gets bogged down when it counts the most. That reverse w/ Hankerson had me scratching my head as soon as I saw it coming. The third and short that got blown up from the middle and Morris lost yards. The drop by Garćon. We just don't seam to be able to put it together.

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Right. But if your stretching the D by setting up out of the spread, it certainly opens things up more and gives you more scope than trying to power the rock behind a struggling line in those situations.

Hail.

That's assuming that the defense keeps playing that defense with the two wide defensive tackles when we go to a spread formation. And given the frequency of us running that formation, and particularly where we use that formation, I think teams will be a little more weary about that. Not to mention Atlanta tends to shift their d-tackles, so it easily could've been a situation where they show the wide d-tackles, then shift to a closer formation when Robert audibles.

This is one of those "there's a lot more factors that go into calling plays than we think" kind of deals.

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Food for thought NLC.

I shall endeavor to pay more attention to how the opposing D set's up in general when we're in the spread this Sunday now you've gotten me thinking on it.

Hail.

I mean, look at this play and look how wide the d-tackles are playing.

http://youtu.be/WCU38vAhzDE?t=1m37s

You see Robert audible to it. It's like stealing. No one is playing over Monty. Every body drops into zone, Monty takes out one D tackle, Trent and Kory double team the defensive end, Chester and Tyler take out the other d-lineman. Candy from a baby.

Same thing later.

http://youtu.be/WCU38vAhzDE?t=4m30s

Wide D-tackles, no one lined up on Monty. This time Morris basically acts like a lead blocker through the hole, Trent and Kory take out one half of the d-line, Chester and Polumbus take out the other, Monty takes out the linebacker.

Stealing again.

I don't think I saw Atlanta line up like that at all.

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On offense, I think part of it is the way defenses play us. Teams don't blitz Robert. When Kirk came into the game, you saw the defenses turn up the heat. But other than that one corner blitz off the edge early? Teams don't bring the heat on him.

Third down is usually a blitz down, or a pressure down. It's the exact opposite with Robert since teams are scared of him hitting the big play with his arm, or scrambling for a first down. So teams rush 3-4, and they drop everyone else (usually in zone), and force Robert to try to complete passes in tight windows. On one play Atlanta dropped a d-lineman into coverage.

We were also killed by bad drops, but Robert wasn't totally on his game yesterday either.

I think it'll get better before it gets worse.

As for the defense...ugh. It's to the point where I'd have a panic attach if I ever saw us do anything creative on third down...

KD's numbers supports one of the things I believe that happens. We usually seem only to get to third down because we screwed up on first and second.

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KD's numbers supports one of the things I believe that happens. We usually seem only to get to third down because we screwed up on first and second.

A penalty hear, a bad drop there, poor execution there. Sometimes it's just a bad playcall.

It's a combo of all those things, rather than falling squarely on the shoulders of one person.

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As a skins fan that has had to endure the offenses I've had to endure for decades... I really find it quite impossible to complain about anything this offense is doing right now. Talk about not counting your blessings and biting the hand that feeds you, lol.

Honestly, this thread would be wonderful of it was on a Patriots board or something... But us Redskins? We should be jumping for joy we're in the top ten of most offensive categories and doing little complaining of the ones (in this case more like one) we're not in. This is the Skins, guys. The team that every offensive genius came here (Norv, Spurrier, Gibbs, Saunders) to implement their incredibly successful offenses only to find it impossible to score over 20 points on any consistent basis.

Seriously, how dare we? :ols:

Now, as for the defense? Complain away!

---------- Post added October-11th-2012 at 01:39 AM ----------

It was a tight power run formation.

Imo we don't have the type of superiority at the POA to telegraph our intent to run then successful run the ball.

Imo our best chances of converting 3rd and short whether we run or pass are spread formations that expand rather then compress.

To me, this is the biggest reason we have trouble as an offense on 3rd downs. More than any down, it's about just beating the guy in front of you off the LOS. Our offense itself is not that type of offense and, to make it worse, we only have a couple of guys with any ability to maul their guy on the Oline in Trent and maybe Chester. If Brown can come back healthy for once I'd bet we get better in third downs in a hurry.

The other reason would be that when we do get into third down situations it's third and long too often (or as others have put it, because we've failed on first and second down). No offense can convert, with any kind of consistency, too many of those situations. Unless, of course, you're playing our defense. :pfft:

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Just because we happen to have an offense for the first time in eons in DC tso doesn't mean their above question/ critique when they consistently fail in a major category. A category that stifles the development of the current O the less time it's on the field through those same failings.

I don't know how this isn't a serious concern to you going forward.

Hail.

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the Falcons spent most of the day in 2nd and 2,, 3rd and 1 situations.

on first down they killed us with short and intermediate passes.

Our linebackers cannot cover. Period. they can't cover backs, they can't cover tight ends, and heaven forbid any of them get matched up on a wideout.

Matt ryan showed everyone how to gas our defense and put together drives. Throw underneath on first down. Just guessing... i'd bet the Falcons were about 75% completions on first down passes.

~Bang

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But if your stretching the D by setting up out of the spread, it certainly opens things up more and gives you more scope than trying to power the rock behind a struggling line in those situations.

Hail.

I agree.

Imo the spread formation plays to our strengths on 3rd and short more then a power run formation (unless we're gonna pass from that power run set).

In a 2x2 set we're almost guaranteed to see a 6 man box or less.

Facing Griffin in a 2x2 set is different then faces almost any other QB (sans Vick,Cam, Rodgers).

The a defense has to figure how they're gonna account for Griffin in the run game.

And if a team commits more then 6 to the box then it leaves them vulnerable to the pass.

---------- Post added October-11th-2012 at 11:55 AM ----------

To me, this is the biggest reason we have trouble as an offense on 3rd downs. More than any down, it's about just beating the guy in front of you off the LOS. Our offense itself is not that type of offense and, to make it worse, we only have a couple of guys with any ability to maul their guy on the Oline in Trent and maybe Chester. If Brown can come back healthy for once I'd bet we get better in third downs in a hurry.
I'm just spit balling conceptually on 3rd and short.

I wonder what our success rate is on 3rd and short and what we've been doing on those 3rd and shorts?

The other reason would be that when we do get into third down situations it's third and long too often (or as others have put it, because we've failed on first and second down). No offense can convert, with any kind of consistency, too many of those situations. Unless, of course, you're playing our defense.
Looking at the slice of numbers between Tannehill, Luck and Griffin it suggest that we're not in 3rd and long an inordinate amount.
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the Falcons spent most of the day in 2nd and 2,, 3rd and 1 situations.

on first down they killed us with short and intermediate passes.

Our linebackers cannot cover. Period. they can't cover backs, they can't cover tight ends, and heaven forbid any of them get matched up on a wideout.

Matt ryan showed everyone how to gas our defense and put together drives. Throw underneath on first down. Just guessing... i'd bet the Falcons were about 75% completions on first down passes.

~Bang

Looked it up, Ryan complete about 58% of his first down passes. Also, had we just converted 4 of the 3rds we missed, our TOP would have at least been 4 minutes greater and very likely held a 21-7 lead going into the fourth quarter. At about the 12 minute mark of that quarter we'd likely have held a 28-7 lead and Kirk Cousins' likely doesn't throw those two interceptions giving us at least 2 minutes more TOP. It wasn't so much that the Falcons showed the rest of the league how to gas our defense so much as maybe show the rest of the league how to stop our offense at critical times

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Looking at the slice of numbers between Tannehill, Luck and Griffin it suggest that we're not in 3rd and long an inordinate amount.

Hmmm... I would think just looking at those guys would be a poor sample size for numerous reasons. I'm certainly not sure though, as I'm just going off on how I feel during the games. I always feel like our 3rd downs are too long more than not, but that may just be the inner Skins fan in me always wanting better situations for my team. That being said, I'm not particularly comfortable when we get into 3rd and short situations either since I feel like our Oline is going to get pushed back.

Again, that's usually just how I "feel" during games. Not based on any numbers or anything.

---------- Post added October-11th-2012 at 11:22 AM ----------

the Falcons spent most of the day in 2nd and 2,, 3rd and 1 situations.

on first down they killed us with short and intermediate passes.

Our linebackers cannot cover. Period. they can't cover backs, they can't cover tight ends, and heaven forbid any of them get matched up on a wideout.

Matt ryan showed everyone how to gas our defense and put together drives. Throw underneath on first down. Just guessing... i'd bet the Falcons were about 75% completions on first down passes.

~Bang

While your observations on the Falcons first and second down plays are true, I'd venture to say that was more of a product of the style of defense we chose to play against them than the conclusion you drew. I don't think just any team can come in and have those underneath routes on first and second down, especially one that doesn't have the likes of Julio Jones and Roddy White on the outside. And I also think our LBers cover better than you're giving them credit for. We've seen Fletcher get burned a couple times by some elite TEs but those guys are doing that to EVERYONE. Fletcher is a LOT better in coverage than we're seeing this year. I think he'll do better against Rudolph this week, though he's playing at a high level as well.

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Hmmm... I would think just looking at those guys would be a poor sample size for numerous reasons. I'm certainly not sure though, as I'm just going off on how I feel during the games. I always feel like our 3rd downs are too long more than not, but that may just be the inner Skins fan in me always wanting better situations for my team. That being said, I'm not particularly comfortable when we get into 3rd and short situations either since I feel like our Oline is going to get pushed back.

Again, that's usually just how I "feel" during games. Not based on any numbers or anything.

Oh, no doubt its a small sample size but then again going by feel isn't a sample size at all.

I thought the same thing as you initially I thought we have more 3rd and 6+ but that small sample showed otherwise. I wonder what the larger sample would show, (hint) wink.

#butIdon'tfeellikelookingitup

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While your observations on the Falcons first and second down plays are true, I'd venture to say that was more of a product of the style of defense we chose to play against them than the conclusion you drew. I don't think just any team can come in and have those underneath routes on first and second down, especially one that doesn't have the likes of Julio Jones and Roddy White on the outside. And I also think our LBers cover better than you're giving them credit for. We've seen Fletcher get burned a couple times by some elite TEs but those guys are doing that to EVERYONE. Fletcher is a LOT better in coverage than we're seeing this year. I think he'll do better against Rudolph this week, though he's playing at a high level as well.

Well, I will say against the Falcons, that WAS Tony Gonzalez... so..

but, Gonzo or not, Riley was off on his reads and late n many of his coverages, and Fletcher,, well, we may be seeing him losing a step.

~Bang

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I HATE you greenie! Just so as we're clear.

But being as I may have some free time the next day or two, what sort of sample size are you wanting? Keep in mind I already HATE you before you start going back years .....

Hail.

;) lol, good there must be ying-yang for the convergence of the force.

But I think a good sample size would include teams from the top, middle and basement of 3rd +6 conversion rates.

Like maybe the teams that rank #1, #2, #16, #17, #30, #31?

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The 3rd down conversion rate hasn't been good all season but it really hasn't felt that way (to me) for most of the season. The Atlanta game is the only exception for me so far. The team is 23rd in the league when it comes to 3rd down ATTEMPTS but are one of the better teams when it comes to the overall number of first downs converted. We're converting a lot on the earlier downs. Griffin is averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt and Morris is averaging almost 5 yards per carry. The Skins offense is third in the league in yards per play.

Unfortunately, the Skins offense is also 3rd in the league when it comes to penalties (41 of them). That could be one of the major factors.

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;) lol, good there must be ying-yang for the convergence of the force.

But I think a good sample size would include teams from the top, middle and basement of 3rd +6 conversion rates.

Like maybe the teams that rank #1, #2, #16, #17, #30, #31?

So the third and long conversion rates from those teams say from this season to date?

Hail.

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Just because we happen to have an offense for the first time in eons in DC tso doesn't mean their above question/ critique when they consistently fail in a major category. A category that stifles the development of the current O the less time it's on the field through those same failings.

I don't know how this isn't a serious concern to you going forward.

Hail.

It IS a concern, just not a serious one. I'm sorry... I'm happy about this offense right now, period. Hard to complain considering just how bad we've had it. It really is that simple to me. :)

But don't let me ruin a good thread... I'm interested in seeing that sample size getting bigger. ;)

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Just started working on something... I'm going to try to do it for each game, also going down by down of percentage of yards gained (but I haven't done that for Atlanta yet, either)... But here's the breakdown vs. Atlanta:

1st down plays: 23

-averaged 9.9 yards to go on first (we had a 1st and goal from the 9 :))

-gained 6 first downs (26%)

-1 turnover

-needed 229 yards in total, gained 135.

2nd down plays: 16

-Averaged 8.1 yards to go on 2nd.

-gained 4 first downs (25%)

-1 turnover

-needed 131 yards total, gained 82.

3rd down plays: 9

-Averaged 6.1 yards to go on 3rd

-gained 0 first downs

-scored one touchdown

-needed 55 yards, gained 86 (77 of which were on the TD)

Kdawg, does this mean that we are typically in 2nd and 8+ and 3rd and 6+? The third down conversion rate then appears to be a symptom of an overall anemic offense. (although that's tough to argue when you consider our league ranking etc). HHMMMMMMM. fascinating.

I mean it seems fairly obvious but you can't get 2 yards on 1st down, 2 yards on 2nd down and then be worried about third down conversions when you can't get 6 yards on third down. In that scenario we would seemingly be much better off getting just one more yard on each of the 1st and 2nd downs and seeing if we might have a significantly higher conversion rate on 3rd and 4 as opposed to 3rd and 6. Logic would seem to indicate we would since a 4 yard run is not out of the realm of possibility while 6 yard runs are much more uncommon - that's important because it would seem that we are almost forced to pass on third down and there is nothing more difficult to do than pass when the defense knows you have to. It would seem that if we could just get into 3rd and 3 + instead we'd be much better off just from the perspective of being able to keep the defense off balance.

If the defense comes in on 3rd and 3 with a nickel or dime look we should be able to run. If they beef up and stack the box we should be able to pass. I think its all about getting into more manageable situations based on your analysis here. (Which is fantastic by the way so thank you!).

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