4 In A Woe, Part 1

[bird_1972]

In Shanny's shoes, I would not pull the trigger on a QB as the number one pick in the draft until he sees a Cutler clone with the skillset to fit the scheme. I've looked at video at Andrew Luck and some other QBs. I haven't seen one that reminds me of Cutler yet.

What would you spend our 1st round pick on, OF?

[Oldfan]

What would you spend our 1st round pick on, OF?

I don't know much about the college players. I've looked at video on some of the QBs most often mentioned. That's it.

If Mike doesn't like a QB, I'd expect him to go with the BPA who fits the scheme. I think a stud LT would help a lot. That would move Trent over to the RT.

Who do you like?

[redskins55]

The teams that are bad but getting better are showing it right now. Miami, Denver , Tennessee, Carolina. They may not have the best record but their play on the field shows that they are competitive and getting better each week. The Redskins are getting worse each week and contrary to what many believe we are not a better team simply because we are younger.

I said this last year... Shanahan wasted his first year, wrecked his second year, and has no ammunition to succeed in his third year. If Snyder lets him stay four years after accumulating all these losses it would be a miracle and maybe year four would be a miracle year for the skins.

[bird_1972]

I don't know much about the college players. I've looked at video on some of the QBs most often mentioned. That's it.

If Mike doesn't like a QB, I'd expect him to go with the BPA who fits the scheme. I think a stud LT would help a lot. That would move Trent over to the RT.

Who do you like?

Very impressed with that guy Blackmon (WR-Ok State) but don't feel as though it's nearly as an important need as QB or OL.

I really feel as though we should take a top 3 QB if we are able. Having top-tier talent at this position has fallen to the back burner for too long on this team.

---------- Post added November-11th-2011 at 02:57 PM ----------

I said this last year... Shanahan wasted his first year, wrecked his second year, and has no ammunition to succeed in his third year. If Snyder lets him stay four years after accumulating all these losses it would be a miracle and maybe year four would be a miracle year for the skins.

That said, Snyder HAS to allow Shannahan the time to turn around this deeply broken franchise. If he doesn't, the pitchforks and torches will come out, that is for sure.

[BigRedskinDaddy]

My response to this is pretty well summed up in this entire thread.

Reality of a rebuild.

I will say that anyone who thinks it only takes two years to rebuild is funny and very, very naive about how friggin' bad this team was before Mike got here.

I'm not sure who in this thread specifically said that, or if you had anyone particular in mind, but you are correct. It can't be done in two years.

Other rebuilds have perhaps been farther along however.

---------- Post added November-11th-2011 at 12:05 PM ----------

Let me try a gentle shove before I resort to violence...

Thanks. I will soon come to my senses, and I'd rather not regain my fan faculties with bruises all over my ego.

[PeterMP]

That said, Snyder HAS to allow Shannahan the time to turn around this deeply broken franchise. If he doesn't, the pitchforks and torches will come out, that is for sure.

If Shanahan told you that he McNabb would last at least 3 seasons, and he'd have the team turned around by then (i.e. this team would be winning /w McNabb as the starting QB), he told that there were no QBs worth drafting this year given the cost (that whatever Carolina wanted wasn't worth it and nobody after him was going to be any good), and that he could put a competitive team on the field this year w/ some combination of Beck and Grossman, don't you have to AT LEAST seriously restructuring the deal (e.g. remove him as President of football operations) (which he might refuse and only really leave you the option of firing him)?

Wouldn't that be 3 pretty big errors that would be hard to over look?

---------- Post added November-11th-2011 at 08:26 PM ----------

In Shanny's shoes, I would not pull the trigger on a QB as the number one pick in the draft until he sees a Cutler clone with the skillset to fit the scheme. I've looked at video at Andrew Luck and some other QBs. I haven't seen one that reminds me of Cutler yet.

I'm sorry, but you can't wait forever to get a QB. If none of the QBs out there fit your scheme, then you have to start looking to modify your scheme to fit the (good) QBs you can get.

[jaydogg3eb]

I still can't believe some of you are saying "the jury is still out on Beck" or "I can see the talent that he has." This guy flat out sucks. I think there's a reason why people are confidently talking about him being the worst quarterback in team history,

[Oldfan]

...I'm sorry, but you can't wait forever to get a QB. If none of the QBs out there fit your scheme, then you have to start looking to modify your scheme to fit the (good) QBs you can get.

Since we are in a rebuild mode, I don't like spending a number one pick hoping to acquire a grade B quarterback. If John Beck can't make it as a decent starting quarterback, then Mike can try to find another veteran in free agency (Jake Plummer) as a bridge to someone better (Cutler).

I'd stick with a plan of using the number one pick on the BPA who fits the scheme.

[hail2skins]

Since we are in a rebuild mode, I don't like spending a number one pick hoping to acquire a grade B quarterback. If John Beck can't make it as a decent starting quarterback, then Mike can try to find another veteran in free agency (Jake Plummer) as a bridge to someone better (Cutler).

I'd stick with a plan of using the number one pick on the BPA who fits the scheme.

The question is, though, who is going to be available in FA next season? Brees, and he's not going anywhere......perhaps Peyton via trade?

And Mike actually traded up to get Cutler. Surely there's going to be someone available at least in the first two rounds that he likes.

I know we're in rebuild, and I expect Snyder to be patient, but only to a degree. He's paying Mike $7 mill per year, and he's only going to tolerate suck for so long.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think there's a reason why people are confidently talking about him being the worst quarterback in team history,

who are those people?

[Oldfan]

The question is, though, who is going to be available in FA next season? Brees, and he's not going anywhere......perhaps Peyton via trade?

And Mike actually traded up to get Cutler. Surely there's going to be someone available at least in the first two rounds that he likes.

I know we're in rebuild, and I expect Snyder to be patient, but only to a degree. He's paying Mike $7 mill per year, and he's only going to tolerate suck for so long.

We don't know who will be available in FA. It doesn't have to be a QB like Brees or Manning with a big reputation. Jake Plummer (Shanahan took him as a FA) had a losing record with the Cardinals, but he was something like 39-15 with Denver.

Moving up a couple of slots for a QB is a good idea if you have someone like a Jay Cutler targeted, but it's not smart to allow "need" to rule your draft decisions.

[PeterMP]

Since we are in a rebuild mode, I don't like spending a number one pick hoping to acquire a grade B quarterback. If John Beck can't make it as a decent starting quarterback, then Mike can try to find another veteran in free agency (Jake Plummer) as a bridge to someone better (Cutler).

I'd stick with a plan of using the number one pick on the BPA who fits the scheme.

1. I think you aren't properly taking into account the value of the position. I agree w/ BPA that takes into account value of the position. A "B" QB is a better value than an A player at almost any other position. Just look at what we gave up for McNabb and the Raiders gave up for Palmer (two OLD B QBs). If you draft a QB that you think is a B, you might always get lucky and have him turn into an A QB, and if he doesn't, you can always draft an A QB later, and get AT LEAST your 1st round pick back (assuming the guy actually turns into a 1st round QB.

2. Let's pretend like we get the #1 pick somehow. All of the scounts look at Luck and say this guy is the next Peyton Manning. He's smart, dedicated, passionate, has the arm strength, the mechanics and release, and accuracy. Shanahan then looks at him and comes to the same conclusion. BUT he says, I'm not going to take him because i DON'T WANT the next Manning. In his prime, Manning couldn't have played in my system because he wasn't mobile enough and couldn't throw on the run well enough. Then Shanahan is a fool and not a good football coach.

[Darkstarr]

1. I think you aren't properly taking into account the value of the position. I agree w/ BPA that takes into account value of the position. A "B" QB is a better value than an A player at almost any other position. Just look at what we gave up for McNabb and the Raiders gave up for Palmer (two OLD B QBs). If you draft a QB that you think is a B, you might always get lucky and have him turn into an A QB, and if he doesn't, you can always draft an A QB later, and get AT LEAST your 1st round pick back (assuming the guy actually turns into a 1st round QB.

2. Let's pretend like we get the #1 pick somehow. All of the scounts look at Luck and say this guy is the next Peyton Manning. He's smart, dedicated, passionate, has the arm strength, the mechanics and release, and accuracy. Shanahan then looks at him and comes to the same conclusion. BUT he says, I'm not going to take him because i DON'T WANT the next Manning. In his prime, Manning couldn't have played in my system because he wasn't mobile enough and couldn't throw on the run well enough. Then Shanahan is a fool and not a good football coach.

Taking the 4th rated QB is not the same as taking the 1st rated QB. If the choice is between the best DB,ILB, RT or the 4th rated qb I take the BPA. To many holes still to reach. Yes i want a young qb, but I also would not mind seeing Mo. Clayborn on the team. You add a ball hawking db to a pressure defense and good things happen.

Last year is a perfect example of this. ATM would you rather have Gabbert or Kerrigan and the extra picks the skins got? Shanny let the (3rd qb) go for picks and a stud OLB. I would not be against that again if the results were similar.

[Oldfan]

PeterMP ~ I think you aren't properly taking into account the value of the position. I agree w/ BPA that takes into account value of the position.

So do I, but scheme fit is also a factor in my BPA.

Just look at what we gave up for McNabb and the Raiders gave up for Palmer (two OLD B QBs).

Both teams gave up too much. Shanny got Jake Plummer in free agency.

If you draft a QB that you think is a B, you might always get lucky and have him turn into an A QB..

.

And...he might not be a grade B because drafting a QB out of college entails more bust risk than selecting one with NFL experience in FA, like Plummer.

2. Let's pretend like we get the #1 pick somehow. All of the scounts look at Luck and say this guy is the next Peyton Manning. He's smart, dedicated, passionate, has the arm strength, the mechanics and release, and accuracy. Shanahan then looks at him and comes to the same conclusion. BUT he says, I'm not going to take him because i DON'T WANT the next Manning. In his prime, Manning couldn't have played in my system because he wasn't mobile enough and couldn't throw on the run well enough. Then Shanahan is a fool and not a good football coach.

I regard Peyton as the most hyped, overrated QB in NFL history. He’s the product of an exceptionally smart scheme and a greatly underrated support system. So, your argument falls on deaf ears.

In Denver in 2008, Shanahan and Cutler, along with a couple of good receivers made an O-line look much better than they really were and produced a dynamic offense. Shanny could never have done it with Peyton. Peyton would have needed a solid O-line and a complete cast of good receivers.

[KCClybun]

I regard Peyton as the most hyped, overrated QB in NFL history. He’s the product of an exceptionally smart scheme and a greatly underrated support system. So, your argument falls on deaf ears.

Yes, Oldfan, Peyton Manning is so overrated his ENTIRE FOOTBALL TEAM MELTED DOWN IN ONE SEASON WITHOUT HIM BEING THERE. Clearly he's nothing but a system QB. Anyone can operate that system. Well, aside from Kerry Collins. And Curtis Painter. And the guys they bought in during the preseason. But other than that, anyone could run that system.

That aside, your idea that you wouldn't take a quarterback unless they had the same skillset as Jay Cutler would, likely, having you sitting on your butt letting quarterback prospects pass you by until you inevitably got fired by trying to do what we've failed to do SO. MANY. TIMES. Though I agree with Mike's decision not to draft a quarterback he didn't like in this draft, I believe there were guys he liked that he simply couldn't get to. And none of them have the skillset of Cutler, except arguably Locker, but Locker doesn't have the raw arm strength Jay possesses.

You can't say "you can't draft a quarterback until you get a guy who matches the skill set of a guy who quite possibly has a one in a million skillset". We've tried bringing in free agent "placeholder" quarterbacks. We tried doing that this season. We tried it with Brunell. We squeezed just about as much from Brunell as we possibly could. We've tried it with Rex. We traded for John Beck. The crown jewel of this free agent quarterback class might be Matt Flynn, a career back-up who's started all of one football game. Quarterbacks who hit the open market usually hit the open market for a reason.

We can't continue to rebuild this team without a young player in the quarterback position to grow WITH the team. The mistake with made with Jason Campbell was sticking a bunch of old, veteran players who were on the decline of their career around him and trying to milk time out of him, without adding anyone on the team he could grow with besides Cooley. (And Cooley still was drafted before JC.)

The only scenario that exists where we get someone like Cutler is for Cutler to finally get fed up with the Bears front office and Mike Martz and to force another trade, and while I have prayed for this scenario, it's not bloody likely to happen.

[Hubbs]

We're not seeing the same things, BRD.

The rebuild should have started in 2010. It didn't. Shanny traded picks for McNabb and made other win-now moves until it became apparent that we weren't going to win in 2010. When he shifted gears, the rebuild began, but too little, too late to call 2010 a rebuilding year.

The draft and free agency qualified as a rebuild strategy, except for a handful of over-30 FA vets as gap fillers who have produced next to nothing for us. But, that isn't a big waste because we didn't have enough young talent to fill a roster anyway.

...

Bottom line for me: I was pissed with Shanny in 2010. I've got his back this season. I don't care what our record is. We're making progress.

Ding ding ding. Agree with everything said here. (Deleted the stuff about finding a college QB because I don't necessarily think we need to find the next Jay Cutler.)

[Oldfan]

NLC1054 ~ Yes, Oldfan, Peyton Manning is so overrated his ENTIRE FOOTBALL TEAM MELTED DOWN IN ONE SEASON WITHOUT HIM BEING THERE.

I think that’s bull, but debating it would be pointless. I offered my opinion of Peyton only because Peter’s argument rested on the idea that Peyton is so magnificent that scheme fit is unimportant.

That aside, your idea that you wouldn't take a quarterback unless they had the same skillset as Jay Cutler...

The QB selected should remind you of Cutler: athletic, mobile, good arm strength and accuracy.

You can't say "you can't draft a quarterback until you get a guy who matches the skill set of a guy who quite possibly has a one in a million skillset".

Agreed. I didn’t mean to suggest that we should hold out for an exact match.

The only scenario that exists where we get someone like Cutler is for Cutler to finally get fed up with the Bears front office and Mike Martz and to force another trade, and while I have prayed for this scenario, it's not bloody likely to happen.

I was hoping for the Bears to collapse and for Jerry Angelo to get sacked. The new regime might want to rebuild with a young, different QB.

[PeterMP]

Taking the 4th rated QB is not the same as taking the 1st rated QB. If the choice is between the best DB,ILB, RT or the 4th rated qb I take the BPA. To many holes still to reach. Yes i want a young qb, but I also would not mind seeing Mo. Clayborn on the team. You add a ball hawking db to a pressure defense and good things happen.

Last year is a perfect example of this. ATM would you rather have Gabbert or Kerrigan and the extra picks the skins got? Shanny let the (3rd qb) go for picks and a stud OLB. I would not be against that again if the results were similar.

Your judging based on one year. Who knows what kind of QB Gabbert is going to turn into and if Kerrigan is REALLY going to be a stud LB.

BUT if we are going to do that, I'd rather had Dalton had the end of the first round and EVEN more picks.

---------- Post added November-12th-2011 at 03:27 PM ----------

Both teams gave up too much. Shanny got Jake Plummer in free agency.

That doesn't happen very often. That's like saying we should ONLY draft 6th round QBs because the Patriots got Brady in the 6th round. The Redskins didn't gave a large amount based on similar trades in history (The Raiders gave up too much, but they could have given up less and still you would have gotten more value than the 1st round pick).

And...he might not be a grade B because drafting a QB out of college entails more bust risk than selecting one with NFL experience in FA, like Plummer.

(How about risk associated with McNabb?)

Doesn't it also contain more upside? He also might turn into a grade A.

I regard Peyton as the most hyped, overrated QB in NFL history. He’s the product of an exceptionally smart scheme and a greatly underrated support system. So, your argument falls on deaf ears.

In Denver in 2008, Shanahan and Cutler, along with a couple of good receivers made an O-line look much better than they really were and produced a dynamic offense. Shanny could never have done it with Peyton. Peyton would have needed a solid O-line and a complete cast of good receivers.

You'd pass on a SuperBowl caliber QB even if it means putting a good support system around him to get there?

Cutler hasn't won anything. Heck, he hasn't been better than Plummer at his best (in terms of wins in a season, playoff success, or QB rating).

[Oldfan]

...That doesn't happen very often. That's like saying we should ONLY draft 6th round QBs because the Patriots got Brady in the 6th round. The Redskins didn't gave a large amount based on similar trades in history (The Raiders gave up too much, but they could have given up less and still you would have gotten more value than the 1st round pick).

Finding a Plummer-quality QB in FA is not as rare as drafting a sixth round starting QB. Fitzpatrick, Garcia and Kitna are a few names right off the top. Then, there’s the trade possibility.

(How about risk associated with McNabb?)

Doesn't it also contain more upside? He also might turn into a grade A.

Let’s not get into cherry-picking (McNabb). Using the number one pick on a QB is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. If the QB is the BPA, scheme fit and position value included, then the risk is worth taking.

You'd pass on a SuperBowl caliber QB even if it means putting a good support system around him to get there?

Yes. Mike Shanahan’s scheme would get better results with a grade B QB who fits the scheme than with a grade A QB who doesn’t. Bear in mind he has to have eleven players to fit. We're not just talking about minor tweaks to change a scheme.

Cutler hasn't won anything. Heck, he hasn't been better than Plummer at his best (in terms of wins in a season, playoff success, or QB rating).

I don’t use team stats or team achievments to grade QBs. The QBR is a team stat, mislabeled as a QB stat. IMO, Cutler is the best in the NFL because he doesn’t need as much help as other QBs to score points. He proved that with Mike in 2008.

[PeterMP]

Finding a Plummer-quality QB in FA is not as rare as drafting a sixth round starting QB. Fitzpatrick, Garcia and Kitna are a few names right off the top. Then, there’s the trade possibility.

You are wrong if you calculate the odds correctly. I'll guarantee you that there have been more freeagent QBs over the last 15 years than there have been 6th round QB draft picks. That Brady by himself offsets all of those franchise QBs when you account for the number of freeagents as compared to 6th round picks.

Let’s not get into cherry-picking (McNabb). Using the number one pick on a QB is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. If the QB is the BPA, scheme fit and position value included, then the risk is worth taking.

But a B QB, because of position value has more than an A player at any other position.

Yes. Mike Shanahan’s scheme would get better results with a grade B QB who fits the scheme than with a grade A QB who doesn’t. Bear in mind he has to have eleven players to fit. We're not just talking about minor tweaks to change a scheme.

I don’t use team stats or team achievments to grade QBs. The QBR is a team stat, mislabeled as a QB stat. IMO, Cutler is the best in the NFL because he doesn’t need as much help as other QBs to score points. He proved that with Mike in 2008.

But it is easier to get any other position when you take into account the value of the other positions.

How did he prove that? What statistic are you using to measure his value in 2008?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2008

You have some stat better than DVOA and DYAR. They don't even have him as the top QB in 2008.

[Oldfan]

You are wrong if you calculate the odds correctly. I'll guarantee you that there have been more freeagent QBs over the last 15 years than there have been 6th round QB draft picks. That Brady by himself offsets all of those franchise QBs when you account for the number of freeagents as compared to 6th round picks.

You seem to be missing the obvious. The plentiful supply of FA quarterbacks makes it more likely we could find a Plummer-quality QB among them.

But a B QB, because of position value has more than an A player at any other position.

If he fits the scheme, possibly. But, if you don't include scheme fit in your definition of BPA, then that's where our disagreement lies.

But it is easier to get any other position when you take into account the value of the other positions.

I'm not sure what you mean. You don't mean that it's easier to replace five or six misfit teammates than it would be to find a QB who fits the scheme, do you?

Besides, for strategic reasons, Shanahan wants to run HIS scheme. He can adapt some for a QB, but he's not going to change the scheme that has worked so well for him for so long.

How did he prove that? What statistics are you using to measure his value in 2008?

Credit Shanny and Cutler's mobility with the fact that the Broncos had a league low 11 sacks. Ryan Clady was charged with 1.5 in 2008 but was near the top of the NFL in QB pressures. In 2009, Clady was charged with 8.5 sacks because Orton couldn't avoid them.

Cutler had two outstanding receivers to work with in Marshall and Royal. The team had no healthy RB all year. Yet, in total yardage the Broncos offense finished second in the NFL to Brees and the Saints.

Cutler was named to the pro Bowl.

The DVOA is a team related stat. Footballoutsiders once had a disclaimer (since removed) which basically said, in effect, that it didn't measure Cutler, it measures the Broncos offense with Cutler at QB. My claim is that it measures Cutler with not much more than two good receivers and a good scheme to work with. The DVOA doesn't take sacks into account. So, Cutler's mobility and its usefulness to Shanny in the protection scheme added no DVOA value.

[PeterMP]

You seem to be missing the obvious. The plentiful supply of FA quarterbacks makes it more likely we could find a Plummer-quality QB among them.

NO!

If I have a 10% chance of winning a prize in a lottery, it doesn't matter if there are 100 total tickets or 1,000,000 total tickets.

I'm not sure what you mean. You don't mean that it's easier to replace 10 teammates than it would be to find a QB who fits the scheme, do you?

Besides, for strategic reasons, Shanahan wants to run HIS scheme. He can adapt some for a QB, but he's not going to change his entire program.

You won't have to replace all 10 teammates. Shanahan has kept many of the other players that were here before. At most positions, there is some flexibiblity. The 49ers are running a new offensive system this year, how many people did they switch?

(IF Shanahan's system so has little flexibility that at most positions, he can't subsitute pretty easily, then that's just another strike against his system.

And what I'm telling you is if Shanahan is passing up on good QBs because of his desire to adhere to his system, and he doesn't think they can run his system, he's a fool.

Credit Shanny and Cutler's mobility with the fact that the Broncos had a league low 11 sacks. Ryan Clady was charged with 1.5 in 2008 but was near the top of the NFL in QB pressures. In 2009, Clady was charged with 8.5 sacks because Orton couldn't avoid them.

Cutler had two outstanding receivers to work with Marshall and Royal. The team had no healthy RB all year. Yet, in total yardage the Broncos offense finished second in the NFL to Brees and the Saints.

Cutler was named to the pro Bowl.

The DVOA is a team related stat. Footballoutsiders once had a disclaimer (since removed) which basically said that it didn't measure Cutler, it measures the Broncos offense with Cutler at QB. My claim is that it measures Cutler with not much more than two good receivers and a good scheme to work with. That DVOA is fine if you use it with an asterisk attached.

1. So? We aren't talking about Kyle Orton.

2. Or maybe after a year of tape on Clady the league figured something out or maybe he got hurt, but continued to play injured or maybe a QB that read defense better and has a quicker release would have negated Clady's weakness even BETTER than Cutler's mobility did, and Orton was even WORSE than Cutler in those areas.

And I can't believe you bothered to bring up the Pro Bowl.

Clady made the Pro Bowl in 2009.

DVOA measures how well the QB performs as compared to the average QB in a similar situation (e.g. in the red zone) after being corrected for the quality of the defense.