2 minutes left in the game, no timeouts, need a TD, at your own 1. Pick a QB.

[Big Blue Joe]

Lies, damn lies and statistics. Eli has a high ratio because he puts his team in a position where they need it. His winning percentage is far below most of the good QBs on that list. He not only gets more opportunities for comeback victories, he gets to face the prevent defense more often.

[Eli]Manning has the second-highest winning percentage in games decided by eight or fewer points since 2007 (minimum 15 starts):

PLAYER WIN-LOSS RECORD HIGHEST WIN PCT.

Peyton Manning* 26-8 .765

Eli Manning* 19-7 .731

Matt Ryan* 19-7 .731

Tom Brady* 13-6 .684

Brett Favre 15-7 .682

*Active

Link

[ixcuincle]

Brady AINEC

[Vilandil Tasardur]

For me, it depends on my receivers and my offensive line.

If I have all pro linemen and all pro receivers, I want Brett bar none. The guy proved that, when given an adequate supporting cast, he could make the plays. The guy had all the tools right up until the day he retired and he could make every throw. He wasn't afraid to look a guy off and drill a ball into a tight window. He wasn't afraid to let his man go up and make a defender look stupid.

If I DON'T have all pro receivers or lineman, then I don't want Favre. The guy ALSO showed that he forces things if he feels like his team can't help him out. Favre didn't throw all those picks because he wanted to or because he was stupid, he threw them because he had no one that could make a play for him if he didn't.

If I don't have all pros on offense, then I want Brady. I can't sit here and tell you how many times he made Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown look like Jerry Rice. You could put my broke ass at wide receiver and I'm pretty sure Brady could find a way to get me the ball in the endzone. For me, the only way to describe Brady is "surgeon." When I watch Brady tear a defense apart I really feel as though I'm watching medical science. He just exudes a cerebral perfection that blows my mind. It doesn't matter that he can't launch it 70 yards or hit a 30 yard out on a rope; he can think the defense to sleep. And it's beauty to watch.

[Big Blue Joe]

When the game is on the line, Rogers beats out Eli in terms of completion %, yards per attempt, INT % and of course QB rating. Eli's only better in terms of TD percentage with a 6.2 TD%, but Rodgers has a lofty 5.1 TD% of his own...and his is paired with a really low INT% (2.4), as where Eli's is paired with a pretty bad INT% (4.2)...what this says is that while Eli is about 20% more likely than Rodgers to throw a TD with the game on the line, he is also twice as likely to throw an interception. That's not good.

If you need a TD to win the game, what does it matter whether the game ends in an incompletion or an interception? Who gives a crap about the QBR? The point is to score, not have pretty stats.

[BlueinBuf]

I love what I've turned this thread into. Welcome to every other thread on the NYG message boards.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

If you need a TD to win the game, what does it matter whether the game ends in an incompletion or an interception? Who gives a crap about the QBR? The point is to score, not have pretty stats.

An incompletion on 1st down simply means you have three more downs to keep the drive moving and score. Damn near every game-winning TD drive has at least 1 incompletion.

And interception on 1st down ends the game. Not a single game-winning TD drive features an interception.

Your game winning drive is twice as likely to end prematurely with Eli than with Rodgers. And only marginally more likely to end in a TD.

That's the difference.

[Big Blue Joe]

An incompletion on 1st down simply means you have three more downs to keep the drive moving and score. Damn near every game-winning TD drive has at least 1 incompletion.

And interception on 1st down ends the game. Not a single game-winning TD drive features an interception.

Your game winning drive is twice as likely to end prematurely with Eli than with Rodgers. And only marginally more likely to end in a TD.

That's the difference.

Yes. And since ending in a TD is the only way to win in this scenario, that would be advantage Eli.

[Bubble Screen]

Brady is the best right now, followed by Rodgers coming in a close second. All-time: Elway.

Elway is not the best of all time. C'mon.

[SWO-tarious]

If we are talking about 4th qtr comebacks with no timeouts, deep in his own territory, I'd take Elway over just about anybody else. I believe that Marino had 1 or 2 more 4th qtr comebacks in his career, but to me Elway had more of a winning instinct and his mobility was always a factor.

Elway is not the best of all time. C'mon.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Yes. And since ending in a TD is the only way to win in this scenario, that would be advantage Eli.

Wrong. The minimal advantage that Eli has in TD% is offset by his much higher propensity to throw an INT.

Put another way...in this thread's scenario, within a set of downs a QB has:

A) 4 chances to win the game with a TD;

4 chances to lose the game with an INT; or

C) 1 chance to lose the game with an incompletion (4th down)

The QB who can maximize A while at the same time minimizing B and C has the advantage. Clearly, that is Rodgers.

The idea that INT% becomes irrelevant in the last 2 minutes of a game is more than a bit ludicrous.

The only scenario in which Eli has the advantage is if there is one last play to win the game. In that scenario that one single pass ends the game, so as you said earlier it doesn't matter if that one pass is an INT or an incompletion. But that's not what this thread is about.

[Big Blue Joe]

Wrong. The minimal advantage that Eli has in TD% is offset by his much higher propensity to throw an INT.

Put another way...in this thread's scenario, within a set of downs a QB has:

A) 4 chances to win the game with a TD;

4 chances to lose the game with an INT; or

C) 1 chance to lose the game with an incompletion (4th down)

The QB who can maximize A while at the same time minimizing B and C has the advantage. Clearly, that is Rodgers.

Not really. On a 2 minute drive, there are numerous ways to lose. Whether it's running out of time because you took too many sacks, chose bad plays, threw too many balls into the middle of the field, etc. Or it's turnovers like fumbles and interceptions. Or it's failing to gain the line of distance because of an incompletion, a short throw, putting too much faith in your run game, etc.

I'm not saying that INT% is irrelevant. An interception is a loss. What I am saying is that the manner in which you lose is irrelevant. A loss is a loss. The only way to win is by scoring a TD.

[Dan T.]

All time? Johnny Unitas.

Today? Tom Brady. He proved it again on Sunday.

It seems like the Packers are always up by 20, so Aaron Rogers never has to lead a 2 minute drill.

Eli Manning? If he leads a lot of 2 minute drives, it's because he keeps the other team in the game for 3 quarters. It's like he plays games stoned, and the buzz wears off in the 4th quarter.

[Henry]

I'm surprised Eli isn't on the list as well. The guy is a hot and cold QB, but in the final two minutes of a half he turns into a different player. I hate that about him.

If we are talking All-Time, Elway is a good choice, though I might go with Montana.

[KevinthePRF]

Brady. Rodgers a close second.

[doncherry]

I think that John Clayton has Eli as an elite QB, but then again, he also has Romo sits to pee, Josh Freeman and Joe Flacco as elite. According to Clayton, there are about 14 elite QBs in the NFL. I disagree, to me elite is like the top 10%. Eli does not belong in that category.....

[Jeffro]

Brady without a doubt.

[Tom [Giants fan]]

Did I mention I would take Eli?

[visionary]

Not yesterday. He was awful.

He set a record for having 4 350 yard passing games in a row and and threw for 383 yards in the game, plus leading the team to a comeback and almost winning the game...despite the fact that his head coach and main playcaller went down in the first quarter and was replaced with another playcaller later on.

And he was also playing in Tampa against a good team that was hungry to make up for last week when they were blown out.

That said he did screw up on the interception near the end and miss an open guy in the endzone, even if it was a 4th down and they probably should have kicked the field goal anyway.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Not really. On a 2 minute drive, there are numerous ways to lose. Whether it's running out of time because you took too many sacks, chose bad plays, threw too many balls into the middle of the field, etc. Or it's turnovers like fumbles and interceptions. Or it's failing to gain the line of distance because of an incompletion, a short throw, putting too much faith in your run game, etc.

True, but I was talking about the TDs, INTs and incompletions, their percentage stats and what role they each play in winning and losing in the scenario this thread presents. We weren't talking about things like sacks or playcalling. You seemed intent on seeing only the TD% really playing a role and, because of that, giving the edge to Eli. I was just showing why I felt that was wrong.

I'm not saying that INT% is irrelevant. An interception is a loss. What I am saying is that the manner in which you lose is irrelevant. A loss is a loss. The only way to win is by scoring a TD.

But the TD does NOT have to be a passing TD. Because of that, it inflates the value of a QB with a lower INT%, because it's not just about him getting the ball into the end zone, it's about him giving his RBs the best chance to get into the end zone as well. And for that, you need a QB who can keep the drive alive and keep moving the offense down the field...to do that, you need a QB who can complete as many passes as possible, convert as many 3rd downs as possible and make as few mistakes as possible--as well as one who has a high TD% in these scenarios.

Rodgers meets all of the criteria above. Eli doesn't. So to me, it's Advantage: Rodgers.

[PokerPacker]

TD% is a crap stat. It just means a higher percentage of THROWS are TDs, not drives. What matters isn't what percent of your throws are TDs, but the percentage of long-field drives go for TDs, which is a stat you're not gonna find on NFL.com.

also, where are you getting this TD% stat for Rodgers/Manning. Is this supposed to be this year or career, because no season in Eli's career did he have a 6% or better TD percentage. As a matter of fact, there is not a season where Manning has a better TD% than Rodgers. So in case I haven't convinced you its a crap stat, then here are the stats according to nfl.com:

2011: Rodgers: 8.2, E. Manning: 5.6

2010: Rodgers: 5.9, E. Manning: 5.8

2009: Rodgers: 5.5, E. Manning: 5.3

2008: Rodgers: 5.2, E. Manning: 4.4

Career: Rodgers: 5.7 E. Manning: 4.7

So even if we decide TD% is not a crap stat, Manning still loses quite handily.

edit: I found some stats regarding long drives on, but I'll have to do some calculations to get anything meaningful out of it.

edit 2: nevermind, its only plays from that field position, not drives. However there is something to be gleaned from those stats. Rodgers has TDs on 8 percent of passes inside the 20 yard line and a QB rating of 128.8, and 18 yards per attempt. 36.0% in getting a first down and keeping the drive alive.

Manning has TDs on 0 percent of passes inside the 20 yard line, and average of 7.8 yards per attempt, and a 78.8 QBR. 24.4% in getting a first down and keeping the drive alive. (remember that this is a per-play stat, and not per drive)

[Califan007 The Constipated]

also, where are you getting this TD% stat for Rodgers/Manning. Is this supposed to be this year or career, because no season in Eli's career did he have a 6% or better TD percentage. As a matter of fact, there is not a season where Manning has a better TD% than Rodgers.

It's detailed in an earlier post: stats are from the last 5 seasons (2006-2010), and only cover stats accumulated in the 4th quarter when behind by 7 or fewer points (which is as close as you can get to the topic of this thread, stat-wise). The TD% and INT% are not for a single year, but the percentages of TDs and INTs thrown over that timespan (and under the 4th quarter/behind by 7 criteria).

Just go back and read the post lol

[darrelgreenie]

Aaron Rodger

Drew Brees

[In The Barrel]

John Beck , Oh I thought the question was how long will it take after Rex starts on Sunday and throws a pick until Shanny pulls him and will replace him

[tiger187126]

i think rodgers is the best qb playing right now, but with tom brady i would feel like it's automatic. if it's at home? not even a question.

by the by, why isn't the kid from tampa on here. he's a comeback machine.

[PokerPacker]

It's detailed in an earlier post: stats are from the last 5 seasons (2006-2010), and only cover stats accumulated in the 4th quarter when behind by 7 or fewer points (which is as close as you can get to the topic of this thread, stat-wise). The TD% and INT% are not for a single year, but the percentages of TDs and INTs thrown over that timespan (and under the 4th quarter/behind by 7 criteria).

Just go back and read the post lol

I did me some skimmin'. Must've missed that. Well anyways, I'm still not a fan of the stats as they are based on per attempt rather than by per drive. I'm also not a fan of stats like that because they don't take into consideration what it takes to put those QBs in that situation. I'd assert that it takes a really tough defense to put Rodgers into that kind of situation because of how good the team is, which means that his average defense when put in that situation would likely be tougher than the average defense Eli Manning deals with as his team does not put a beat down on other teams as often and is in more close games with lesser teams. (I don't know if this is me being an arrogant Packers fan or just very analytical, you make the call).