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Did defenses really figure out Mike Vick towards the end of the season? Here's the stats!


Parsec2010

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Whenever I hear one of the analysts cover Michael Vick, they always follow with this statement; “Michael Vick did have a great year, however the last 6 games defenses seemed to have figured him out”. After hearing this from numerous analysts it compelled me to actually look at his last 6 games and see what his actual stats were. To my surprise, they weren’t as subpar as the analyst would lead audiences to believe. So what I did is compare Vick to one of the best QB’s in the NFL, and media darling Drew Brees.

Here’s a breakdown of Bree’s stats for the last six games.

Nov-21st at SEA, 382 yds, 4 TD’s 2 INT’s QB rating 106.9 (win)

Nov 25th at DAL, 352 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QB rating 86.7 (win)

Dec 5th at CIN, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QB rating 120.3 (win)

Dec 12th at STL, 221 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, QB rating 81.4 (win)

Dec 19th at BAL, 267 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QB rating 91.5 (loss)

Dec 27th at ATL, 302 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QB rating 77.1 (win)

Michael Vick

Nov 21st at NYG, 258 yds, 0 TD, O INT, QB rating 83.0 (win)

Nov 28th at CHI, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QB rating 94.2 (loss)

Dec 2nd at HOU, 302 yds, 2 TD’s, 1 INT, QB rating 103.4 (win)

Dec 12th at DAL, 270 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, QB rating 90.2 (win)

Dec 19th at NYG, 242 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QB rating 97.6 (win)

Dec 28th at MIN, 263 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QB rating 74.1 (loss)

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All six of Vick's INTs came in his final five games. His rushing numbers were higher than his other games. All QBs throw for about what he threw for. Vick is most effective rolling left and in the pocket. The way you beat him is by pressuring him up the middle and making him roll right. He has a much higher tendency to run when forced right. His sack numbers were up for those final games, too.

To answer the question, yes. Defenses did figure him out.

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All six of Vick's INTs came in his final five games. His rushing numbers were higher than his other games. All QBs throw for about what he threw for. Vick is most effective rolling left and in the pocket. The way you beat him is by pressuring him up the middle and making him roll right. He has a much higher tendency to run when forced right. His sack numbers were up for those final games, too.

To answer the question, yes. Defenses did figure him out.

this is correct. OP, you should have posted all of the stats. not just ones that help your point.

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All six of Vick's INTs came in his final five games. His rushing numbers were higher than his other games. All QBs throw for about what he threw for. Vick is most effective rolling left and in the pocket. The way you beat him is by pressuring him up the middle and making him roll right. He has a much higher tendency to run when forced right. His sack numbers were up for those final games, too.

To answer the question, yes. Defenses did figure him out.

And it's only preseason but it looks like the same tactics will work again. If that's the case I wonder how long before the media start backpedalling on the Vick / Eagles hype, like the whole Dallas-for-the-Superbowl train they were all on board with last year even though the team kept losing.

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I don't think that "figure out" is the right way to put it. That suggests that the player cannot continue to be successful just because their tendencies have become recognized.

Once a player has a certain number of games under his belt (and I consider the 2010+ Vick to be a wholly different entity than the Falcons Vick), NFL coaches and players - who watch ungodly amounts of film - begin to spot tendencies.

All QBs have certain things that they feel comfortable doing in certain situations, as well as things they never seem to do well and poor decisions they will make under specific types of pressure. Vick is no different from anyone else in that regard. I mean, after 1,000 hours of film, people have "figured out" what Tom Brady likes to do, but he still regularly defeats defenses as a result of being able to execute well.

If Vick executes well, all 11 players on defense can have a really good idea what his tendencies are, and the coaching staff can game-plan for them all week long, and it won't matter. He has the physical gifts to still come out on top. Question is, does he have the mental game? Does he have the same hunger now, with the Mike Vick Redemption Party is in full swing, with his new contract on the horizon, and all the Eagles new free agents saying they came to Philly mainly because they wanted to play with Vick?

He's probably feeling like he's arrived, maybe just a little bit. And that feeling can make a man loose his edge.

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What stats are more important than TD's, INT's, YPG, QB rating, Win or Loss?
People blast Eli for the season he had, and rightfully so. But Drew Brees wasn't very far behind him with the 22 INT's he threw last year. A better comparison for Vick would be the guy he was constantly compared to throughout the last half of the year. The league MVP.

Also, you left out fumbles. All 9 of Vick's turnovers came in the final 6 games of the season.

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Whenever I hear one of the analysts cover Michael Vick, they always follow with this statement; “Michael Vick did have a great year, however the last 6 games defenses seemed to have figured him out”. After hearing this from numerous analysts it compelled me to actually look at his last 6 games and see what his actual stats were. To my surprise, they weren’t as subpar as the analyst would lead audiences to believe. So what I did is compare Vick to one of the best QB’s in the NFL, and media darling Drew Brees.

Here's your problem right there...in order to determine if there's any validity to the opinion that Vick was "figured out" at the end of the season, you don't compare his stats from the last 6 games to the stats of another QB...you compare his stats from the last 6 games to his stats from the first half of the season.

Someone else here made the mistake of thinking that if a QB's stats last year compared somewhat equally to Brees' stats then it meant that the criticism of that QB was unjustified. They claimed that Romo sits to pee's INT percentage was the same as Drew Brees' last year, so that somehow meant that Romo sits to pee's INT percentage shouldn't be criticized. What they failed to acknowledge, though, was that Brees' INT percentage was at an all-time high last year, significantly higher than what he normally would produce. So the comparison didn't prove anything other than Brees had a singular terrible year last year in terms of INTs.

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In the average fan's mind, they didn't sufficiently address the OL. The Eagles hired the best OL coach in the NFL and spent a 1st round pick on Watkins. The line hasn't looked great but it's not because of lack of skill/ability. It's getting comfortable knowing who to block, make calls, whatever. That will come in time.

Mudd went to Indy in Peyton's rookie year. They replaced all five OL starters with 2-3 rookies and other players on the roster. Sacks went from something like the 50s to the low 20s.

But, this is the internet age and everyone will simply say the Eagles OL sucks no matter how they actually play this season. I am actually pumped about TH at RT. He is probably the best OL on the team. If/when Kelce/Watkins gels, the OL is going to be really good at the end of the year. As long as Vick isn't dead by then, they will be a force.

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Yeah, I'd be pumped also if if they had to move the starting LG and move him to Right Tackle. 2 weeks before the start of the season. Extremely.

ANd I love how the "average fan" thinks they didn't address the line. Implying that those much smarter really realize that the line issues were addressed. In Dec the RT went down. Microfracture sx was needed. So the plan was get a dinged up Ryan Harris and hope he gets healthy, if not hope Winston Justice can be ready by October, if not play King Dunlap. That's no plan

It's OK for you to have hope. In your shoes I'm sure I would be hoping that 2 new rookie starters, 4 new positions, and a new coach could work.

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What they figured out was that he is the same QB he was before. He just has been keeping himself in check until now after he got his new big deal. Now he will return to his old style of play and the Eagles will be disenchanted with him like they got with McNabb. If you just look at the numbers as the OP did then the numbers lokk good compared to Brees and you can dismiss that. But numbers lie because how and when he got those numbers are the more important thing. You can't just say that his numbers are as good as Brees' and dismiss the analysis without watching those games to see how he played. Was the passes he threw easy? Did he run more when rushed? How many sacks did the O-Line give up? There are a lot of variables and numbers are misleading.

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Yeah, I'd be pumped also if if they had to move the starting LG and move him to Right Tackle. 2 weeks before the start of the season. Extremely.

ANd I love how the "average fan" thinks they didn't address the line. Implying that those much smarter really realize that the line issues were addressed. In Dec the RT went down. Microfracture sx was needed. So the plan was get a dinged up Ryan Harris and hope he gets healthy, if not hope Winston Justice can be ready by October, if not play King Dunlap. That's no plan

It's OK for you to have hope. In your shoes I'm sure I would be hoping that 2 new rookie starters, 4 new positions, and a new coach could work.

Ha ha. You just seriously ***** slapped Westbrook. Nice.

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Mudd is a good coach no doubt, but an OL needs consistency and that has certainly been lacking for the Eagles in preseason. Let's see Herremans is now RT, while Mathis is now LG... or is it Harris? I don't think Mudd is very happy with what he's got on the OL. Vick is a good enough passer and there'll be teams who just can't pressure him, but a good aggressive defense is going to stop him dead in his tracks unless that OL takes a big step up. The bigger worry would be that he gets frustrated, takes off and gets himself injured early in the season.

Here's another set of stats:

62.6% - 8.1 Yd average - 21 TD 6 INT 34 Sacks 100.2

60.3% - 8.0 Yd average - 22 TD 10 INT 35 Sacks 92.9

One of these is 2010, 100 million Vick, the other is 2009 McNabb. You can argue that Vick's rushing makes him far more dangerous, but the downside is the injuries from doing that are what keeps him from playing 16 games a season.

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Yeah, I'd be pumped also if if they had to move the starting LG and move him to Right Tackle. 2 weeks before the start of the season. Extremely.

ANd I love how the "average fan" thinks they didn't address the line. Implying that those much smarter really realize that the line issues were addressed. In Dec the RT went down. Microfracture sx was needed. So the plan was get a dinged up Ryan Harris and hope he gets healthy, if not hope Winston Justice can be ready by October, if not play King Dunlap. That's no plan

It's OK for you to have hope. In your shoes I'm sure I would be hoping that 2 new rookie starters, 4 new positions, and a new coach could work.

In your mind, what exactly should they have done? They used a 1st round pick, made a serious run at Doug Free, and signed Harris. Just because a move didn't work out doesn't mean they didn't try. You sound like the Eagle Fans who used to get all bent out of shape because the Eagles NEVER ADDRESSED THE WR POSITION even though only guys like Peerless Price were available for a 1st round pick.

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In your mind, what exactly should they have done? They used a 1st round pick, made a serious run at Doug Free, and signed Harris. Just because a move didn't work out doesn't mean they didn't try. You sound like the Eagle Fans who used to get all bent out of shape because the Eagles NEVER ADDRESSED THE WR POSITION even though only guys like Peerless Price were available for a 1st round pick.

They may have attempted to sign Free, but the fact of the matter is they didn't.

One of the main reasons the Colts sacks went down is because they had Manning at QB. Vick is no Manning. His sack numbers have always been high, because he holds onto the ball and tries to beat defenses with his legs. Sometimes it works, but a lot of the time it gets him sacked.

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Mudd went to Indy in Peyton's rookie year. They replaced all five OL starters with 2-3 rookies and other players on the roster. Sacks went from something like the 50s to the low 20s.

In Eli's rookie year, Kurt Warner started the first 9 games of the season. He was sacked 39 times. At that point the Giants benched him, since the playoffs seemed unlikely and Eli needed experience. Over the final 7 games of the season, Eli was sacked 13 times. Maybe it wasn't the OL that got better in Indy.
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