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Turnovers a concern? (Grossman and Hightower)


s0crates

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Joe Gibbs used to say this all the time. The single most important statistic for predicting winners and losers in football is the turnover ratio. Simply put, the team that wins the turnover battle usually wins the game.

For example, here are the top 5 teams in turnover ratio last season: New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay. Here are the bottom five: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Miami, Minnesota, and Denver. No real surprises here. Teams that win the turnover battle win. Those that do not, do not.

Which brings me to the concern I wish to raise. Rex Grossman and Tim Hightower are turnover prone, and if that trend continues, the Redskins will find themselves on the wrong side of the turnover battle this season, and we will lose a lot of games as a result.

I hope I am wrong about this, but consider the facts.

Rex Grossman has started 34 NFL games, thrown 40 INTs, and lost 14 fumbles. He is averaging only a little bit less than 2 turnovers per game for his career.

Tim Hightower lost 8 fumbles the past two years, those on about 300 carries. That is almost 1 lost fumble per 35 attempts. If he is a full time starter, and the trend continues, we might reasonably expect Hightower to turn the ball over about 6-8 times (if not more) this season.

If history is any indication, and if Hightower and Grossman emerge as our starters, we might be looking at an offense that averages 2-3 turnovers per game.

So, ES faithful, I ask you: How worried are you about turnovers this season?

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I think anyone would be crazy to say they aren't concerned about turnovers. Rex has shown to be a turnover person in the past as has Hightower. The key to the offense being somewhat consistent is if both can limit the turnovers and allow our revamped D time on the sidelines instead of constantly marching them back out after turnovers

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Rex is an air head. I remember him fumbling allot last preseason when he took allot of reps. I remember him getting his ass handed to him against Detroit. The turnovers with Rex will be on going comedic relief throughout the year.

Tim needs to learn that Coughlin grip that Tiki mastered after the 2004 season. RBs can work on that issue. Rex can't all of a sudden become a smart QB over night.

Hail!

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Im worried about Hightowers fumble issues. One would hope it is a concern he is ttrying to work on. Ive come to terms with the fact that Grossman is going to cough the ball up a lot. I don't like it, but ive come to terms with it. Having both on the field at the same time is going to turn my hair gray.

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Yeah I actually thought this was going to be a joke thread.

But since it's not, yeah I'm concerned.

I see what you and GHH are saying. Perhaps my point is too obvious to mention, even comically so. :obvious:

I am very worried about this though. With Grossman and Hightower as our projected starters, and both having the turnover history they do, this is the elephant in the room. So much talk has focused on the many competitions in camp, the youth movement, and whether or not we should tank the season, but the turnover question is the fundamental one for me. If we do well in turnover differential, we will probably be decent, if not, we will be bad.

I have a hunch that the turnover issue will be a recurring theme this season, and as much as I hope I am wrong, I still think it is worth discussing. Easily, this is my biggest worry about this year. If Grossman and Hightower can overcome their history and get this under control, we could be pretty good. That is a big "if" though. If they continue to be the turnover prone players they have been in the past, we are likely in for a long year.

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My concern is our defense never seems to do its part. The offense can only turn it over. Our defense has rarely to never been stripping the ball. If it werent for Hall and Buchanan, no one would ever do it. We never get after the QB, and always seem to be in the bottom of the league.

Rex and High are non factors if our defense isnt going to mob attack rookie QB's and the like, and try to force turnovers. Switching to the 3-4 doesnt create wins in turnover differential. We cant just focus on the offense.

When I see QB's being slashed as they are getting sacked, then we may have a chance to have a significant differential.

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Absolutely, turnovers will be killer for us this year. And if Grossman is the cause of too many, I have no doubt that the Shanahans will insert Beck, even if he's less effective moving the ball down the field.

I think turnovers will lose us more games than a comparative inability to pick up yards, complete third downs, finish in the red zone, etc. I think Grossman is who he is -- the QB who can throw 4 touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in a half, and also the guy who can lose you a game with a Jay Cutler-esque 3 or 4 interception performance. And of course, Beck is more or less a complete unknown, but given his inexperience, he will undoubtedly make numerous mental errors that result in poor decisions and turnovers

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My concern is our defense never seems to do its part. The offense can only turn it over. Our defense has rarely to never been stripping the ball. If it werent for Hall and Buchanan, no one would ever do it. We never get after the QB, and always seem to be in the bottom of the league.

Rex and High are non factors if our defense isnt going to mob attack rookie QB's and the like, and try to force turnovers. Switching to the 3-4 doesnt create wins in turnover differential. We cant just focus on the offense.

When I see QB's being slashed as they are getting sacked, then we may have a chance to have a significant differential.

I am glad you brought up the defense, as their ability to create turnovers (or not) makes up half the turnover differential.

I am a bit more optimistic that they will be able to do their part. Hall has 32 INTs for his career, 5 forced fumbles, and 10 fumble recoveries. We have also added Atogwe (22 INTs, 16 FFs, 8 FRs) and Wilson (9 INTs, 3 FFs, 5 FRs). We have a ball-hawking secondary. If the front seven improves at generating pressure, we should be better at forcing turnovers on defense this season.

My concern is the offense will keep giving the ball away, which is why I have focused on that side of the ball here.

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People are putting too much of this on the offense. The teams with the best turnover ratios generally CAUSE more turnovers defensively. We've had teams in the past with good to average offensive turnover ratios. The problem was our defense couldn't cause any.

Very good point. Our defense may have to work hard to keep that ratio in check though. Having Rex cough up the ball is one thing, having two turnover machines is going to make keeping that ratio in check kinda hard.

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Rex is an air head. I remember him fumbling allot last preseason when he took allot of reps. I remember him getting his ass handed to him against Detroit. The turnovers with Rex will be on going comedic relief throughout the year.

Tim needs to learn that Coughlin grip that Tiki mastered after the 2004 season. RBs can work on that issue. Rex can't all of a sudden become a smart QB over night.

Hail!

Well...have to agree, Rex is an airhead. His turnovers come mostly from carelessness. The difference is like in Favre, when he was motivated to play his best football (when the Packers let him go), he got to Minnesota and only threw 6 picks. He said that the reason he only threw 6 picks was because he was motivated not to throw interceptions. That isn't comparing Favre to Grossman, rather it's comparing turnover machines. Favre was carelessly aggressive and took way too many gunslinger chances that resulted in constant INT's. Grossman is carelessly ignorant. He doesn't look at the big picture and makes decisive but careless decisions when looking at the coverages. Half his picks should have never been attempted as he doesn't have the arm strength to shoot the ball into the same tight spots Favre could. The other part is his fumbling. He doesn't have the instinct when to get that other hand in and wrap the ball up. It's like he's oblivious to the fact that the LT or RT just got beat and the heat is too hot to attempt a pass. If he has the instinct then use the check down and get rid of the ball before another fumble...but he doesn't, hasn't, and won't.

THT by his own admittance says that he doesn't think about fumbling because than he will not run free and will be thinking too much about the ball. Well, that's what Tiki used to do. He used to run with abandon and not think about the ball. Problem is they are carrying it. Since they aren't running track and it is football, they need to think about the ball. Tiki changed his grip and began to remember that he wasn't allowed to fumble. THT is going to keep fumbling until he changes his attitude.

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i dont know if i'm concerned about rex's fumbles. i looked at mcnabbs fumbles the past 4 years, and he fumbled 10, 10, 7, and 9 times. grossman fumbled 8 times in his only full year as a starter in 06.

i don know if we can conclude its a chronic problem based on a small sample size, or even if its something thats as big a problem as its made out to be, especially seeing how mcnabb fumbles more (in fewer games, i might add) and its not really even mentioned.

also, the skins lost every one of rex's four fumbles last year, but mcnabb had 9 of his 10 fumbles recovered. thats just good luck on mcnabbs part and bad luck on rex's part.

as for INT's, again, i'm not sure i can say whether or not its a problem based on his limited games started. QB's get better after a few years in the league. he probably wont throw 20 INTs like he did in chicago. how many QB's throw significantly less than 20 TD's in their first full year as a starter? (yes, i know mcnabb did, but my point is its not ridiculous, they inevitibly decrease in subsequent years). and the system has something to do with it. clearly, kyle and mike think he plays well in the system. it could be a good fit for him.

and, the O line will likely be better than last year, giving him more time to make better throws without getting blindsided. honestly, i hear people talk about him coming into detroit last year and fumbling in his first snap, - it goes for a TD. but, dude got crushed. i dont kill him for that.

in short, maybe rex's turnovers wont be as big a problem as many think.

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No turnovers in the first preseason game. I was happy to see this, but I am still concerned.

Remember that in the red-zone Friday, Rex threw a ball that hit Foote in the hands, the problem being that Foote plays for the other team. As for Hightower, no fumbles Friday, but he only fumbles once every 30 touches, so he is not due to fumble for another week or two.

I don't mean to be negative here, but given Grossman and Hightower's history, there is plenty of reason to worry about it. Don't get me wrong, I am still hopeful based on Friday's good showing, and I know players can learn to fix mistakes as they mature (e.g. Tiki Barber, Warren Moon), but I think the turnover history of our projected starters remains an issue.

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So Grossman and Hightower fumble 4 times a game between them, so what ?

Our defense is so awesome, how do you know we won't create 8 turnovers a game, since it's all about the ratio, not the actual turnovers, right ?

On second thought, maybe this is why Arizona traded Hightower !!

Oh **** !!

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So Grossman and Hightower fumble 4 times a game between them, so what ?

Our defense is so awesome, how do you know we won't create 8 turnovers a game, since it's all about the ratio, not the actual turnovers, right ?

On second thought, maybe this is why Arizona traded Hightower !!

Oh **** !!

:ols:

Yeah, I am not persuaded by the "our defense will make up for it" line of reasoning I see from a couple people here.

The only hope is that Hightower and Grossman mature and improve in this area. Maybe they will.

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