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LATimes: Dismal jobs report shows unemployment rising to 9.2%


Hubbs

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Wow. This is a total disaster:

The U.S. employment picture went from bad to ugly last month as employers added almost no new net jobs and the unemployment rate edged up for the third straight month, to 9.2%.

The report Friday from the Labor Department is sure to be a huge disappointment and will raise fresh questions about the sustainability of the recovery, now technically starting its third year.

Analysts had raised their job-growth forecasts for June to 100,000 or more in recent days, hopeful of a rebound after surprisingly few job gains in May, which many attributed to temporary factors such as Japan's earthquake and the spike in oil prices.

But, in fact, the growth of 54,000 jobs previously reported for May was revised down Friday to just 25,000. And the nation's payrolls followed that with a barely perceptible 18,000 new net jobs last month.

Doing the math there, that means that as of this report, the economy actually has 11,000 fewer jobs than the reported total last month, due to the huge revision. Thank God for that, um, "recovery."

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I hope the Republicans pick a good candidate.
Do you really think which political party has control of America makes that big of a difference? It's obvious we are not in any recovery. It's obvious the years of GOP control in our government has lead to this prolonged downturn. Given that the main GOP ideas are to cut government spending, I have a hard time believing they will inflict less pain on the economy. GOP complain about $1.6T deficit, but that is money going into the economy. What's going to happen when that money is removed from the economy?

Edit: Maybe not "GOP control"; but whatever economic policy we've had for the past 20 years is not working. People like to point to Reagan and say "cut taxes like Reagan did" but they ignore the fact that Reagan was a huge deficit spender. I'd argue that resources which could spur the economy are being tied up in housing assets which are over-priced, and over-priced health care. Any public policy that deflates either the housing or healthcare bubble will get murdered (you can't do that, people will lose jobs!). I have no clue what the correct way to deflate those bubbles is. We've pursued policies aimed at propping up housing asset prices and building a health care bubble. How the hell did health care costs not spiral out of control 30-40 years ago?

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The whole focus of the stimulus plan was wrong from the start. Bankers win, Americans lose.
What "stimulus" plan are you talking about? The 2008 $700B bailout aimed at the banks? Or the $787B aimed at construction/jobs? I'd like to know how the Democratic stimulus resulted in "bankers win".

The problem with the argument against TARP is if bankers lose; Americans lose bigger. Federal Reserve has had 2 years to put in place a system that will step in and provide liquidity when these banks are taken down/eventually fail... but have not. Of course no party except for pure progressives really support the idea of the Federal Reserve using its balance sheet to do anything but prop up the banks. And that's not even stimulus.

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What "stimulus" plan are you talking about? The 2008 $700B bailout aimed at the banks? Or the $787B aimed at construction/jobs? I'd like to know how the Democratic stimulus resulted in "bankers win".

The problem with the argument against TARP is if bankers lose; Americans lose bigger. Federal Reserve has had 2 years to put in place a system that will step in and provide liquidity when these banks are taken down/eventually fail... but have not. Of course no party except for pure progressives really support the idea of the Federal Reserve using its balance sheet to do anything but prop up the banks. And that's not even stimulus.

I'm talking about all of the efforts made by the key decision makers. There were much easier ways to not only prop the banks, but to end the recession very quickly. We should be booming right now.

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What "stimulus" plan are you talking about? The 2008 $700B bailout aimed at the banks? Or the $787B aimed at construction/jobs? I'd like to know how the Democratic stimulus resulted in "bankers win".

The problem with the argument against TARP is if bankers lose; Americans lose bigger. Federal Reserve has had 2 years to put in place a system that will step in and provide liquidity when these banks are taken down/eventually fail... but have not. Of course no party except for pure progressives really support the idea of the Federal Reserve using its balance sheet to do anything but prop up the banks. And that's not even stimulus.

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Just makes me more grateful to know that I was able to get a job these past two months (as I surf the internet at work). I'll tell you it took A LOT of time and persistence, the economy does indeed suck right now. Thanks :)

Just need to create more jobs somehow. Or people need to stop being lazy....I always hear about people being on unemployment and not getting jobs because they get more money being on unemployment than if they were working.

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some randon, related notes on this topic:

1) the unemployment rate is much higher here in California then the 9% or so national average (it's probably more like 13-14% with no relief in sight)

2) I think the trend we are seeing is not just a combination of Obama's job and small biz strangling policies (though they play a large role). I believe that as the rest of the world rapidly closes upon us, we are seeing a change in salaries here that are going to bring down our average wages as work can be done, quite easily, elsewhere for less. How to you stop that? I don't think you can (sadly).

3) Gov't does best when it gets out of the way whenever possible, clearly we need some nudging at this time but the more Washington tries to wave its magic wand, the more mired we become in this mess.

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Do you really think which political party has control of America makes that big of a difference?

No.

But if the unemployment rate keeps flirting with 10% Obama's out.

And if that's the case I hope the GOP picks someone good.

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No.

But if the unemployment rate keeps flirting with 10% Obama's out.

And if that's the case I hope the GOP picks someone good.

Thats how I took your original post. This election is entirely a referendum on Obama, and it depends entirely on the economy. So if the economy is still in the tank, everyone is stuck with whomever the Repubs choose. Which is a scary thought.

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Time for some charts.

Average duration of unemployment - new record:

Averagte%20Duration%20Of%20Unemploment.png

People not in labor force who want a job immediately - new record:

Persons%20Who%20Want%20A%20Job%20Now.jpg

(By the way, the very fact that someone who wants a job right now can be considered "not in the labor force" should tell you what a joke the unemployment "statistic" is.)

Number of people on food stamps - new record:

June%20SNAP.png

Labor force participation rate - 25-year low:

LFP%20Feb.jpg

Number of jobs the economy must add per month to get employment back to where it was in December 2007 by the end of a potential second Obama term - 254,000:

Projected%20NFP%20Chart_1.jpg

Man, this Summer of Recovery is even more recover-ific than last year's Summer of Recovery.

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Are you talking about a jobs recovery or an economic recovery? Jobs are the last thing to return after a economic down turn. I'm wondering if the US's natural unemployment rate hasn't shifted long term. The financial meltdown was huge and there was plenty of motivation to offshore jobs before it ever happened.

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Hubbs,

I certainly agree the Recovery has yet to materialize. I also certainly think Obama "overpromised and underdelivered." However, look at the last chart in your post and compare the job loss figures in 2009 and 2010. We haven't climbed out of the "jobs hole," but at least we stopped digging. Did TARP and the various stimulus bills have something to do with that? I don't know and I will leave it to smarter people to make that determination, but it looks like they might have.

6a00d8341bf80c53ef014e872c3105970d-pi

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Are you talking about a jobs recovery or an economic recovery? Jobs are the last thing to return after a economic down turn. I'm wondering if the US's natural unemployment rate hasn't shifted long term. The financial meltdown was huge and there was plenty of motivation to offshore jobs before it ever happened.

Jobs are the last thing to return in recent recessions.

1106_US_Unemployment_Rate_Historical_graph.gif

I've seen different theories as to why. I have my own regarding this recession and the recession that happened after the tech bubble popped, but I haven't looked at the early 90's recession as closely.

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Hubbs,

I certainly agree the Recovery has yet to materialize. I also certainly think Obama "overpromised and underdelivered." However, look at the last chart in your post and compare the job loss figures in 2009 and 2010. We haven't climbed out of the "jobs hole," but at least we stopped digging. Did TARP and the various stimulus bills have something to do with that? I don't know and I will leave it to smarter people to make that determination, but it looks like they might have.

Mathematically, it's impossible for them to have had no effect. Of course if the government spends hundreds of billions of dollars to hire people/prevent companies and state and local governments from continuing to fire people, it will have an effect. The question then becomes if the effect is self-sustaining, or if it's only sort of a state of suspended animation.

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