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Thoughts on 2012 Republican Nomination Race aka Race to be Obama's Sacrifice


Rdskns2000

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Well, looks like the race to not running for 2012 Republican nomination is sorting itself out. I figure the only more potential big NOs would be Sara Palin and Mitch Daniels.

Here's a some of links on potential or declared candidates:

http://2012.republican-candidates.org/

http://www.politics1.com/p2012.htm

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2012-republican-presidential-candidates-abc-news-guidebook/story?id=12164311

I think the eventual Republican nominee will be nothing more than the sacrificial lamb to Obama. I don't think things will get much better before Nov. 2012 but the only way Obama loses is if things get worse. Obama is definitely beatable but I don't think the Republicans will nominate someone who would appeal to a majority of voters and make the case to vote for them.

I do think it will be an interesting nomination race though, As things are shaking out, I think the race will end up going through the entire primary season because it is wide open. It wouldn't shock me seeing the race not being settled until the convention.

Odds are the nominee will be an establishment candidate. If that happens, it wouldn't shock me to see the Tea Party put someone in the fall against that candidate. It depends on whether the tea party wins a majority of the congressional primaries they enter. I expect all Republican Congressional and Senate incumbent candidates that haven't towed the tea party line to face challenges.

There will be different kind of candidates:

Establishment:

Mitt Romney - If Republicans were to follow form, he would be the nominee. Well, I don't expect them to follow form. I think the tea party will be a huge factor. Romney might win New Hampshire but I expect him to flame out faster than last time, All someone has to do is make 2 commercials. One that shows him flip flopping on the issues. The other shows his face beside Romneycare and morphs into Obama's face and Obamacare. I think once the race kicks into high gear with Super Tuesdays, Romney will flop,

Tim Pawlenty - I don't know much about this guy. I think this guy could be someone everyone settles on, if this thing goes into the convention. He was governor of a liberal state.

Mitch Daniels - It wouldn't shock me to see him say no. He was governor of Indiana. He could be one of those people settle on but he did piss off social conservatives by saying they should deemphasize the social issues.

Tea Party:

Sarah Palin- She would definitely get the social conservative and tea party vote. She wouldn't appeal to the establishment. She could get the nomination though since social conservatives and tea partiers would dominate the Republican only primary and caucus. Thing is, I don't think she is running.

Michelle Bachmann - She won't be the nominee but she could win some votes and maybe even win a state or two. She will pick the tea party mantle should Sarah not run.

Herman Cain - Really don't know much about him other than the Godfather's Pizza guy is a tea partier.

Social Conservatives:

Sarah Palin- See above.

Libertarians

Ron Paul- I figure he will make some good points that will be offset by his other views. I figure he will do about the same. I don't see him winning any state but he will collect some delegates and get a speech at the Republican convention.

Gary Johnson- Former New MExico governor. I think the fact he wants to at least partially legalize drugs will kill his chances of winning a republican nomination.

Others

I don't know where to categorize these people.

Newt Gingrich- He's been out of congress long enough to be considered an outsider. I see him flaming out quickly. He will not win any primary other than his home state Georgia. He has way to much baggage. He will make the debates interesting though.

Jon Huntsman- I see he's fiiscally conservative but moderate on social issues. I think the fact he was Obama's ambassador to China pretty much kills his chances. The hatred of anything Obama is intense on the Republican primary electorate. He has no chance in getting the nomination.

Rick Santorum- Former PA senator has no chance.

I think those are the big ones who are thinking or are in. I guess some of the tea partiers could get the social conservative vote- though that is Sarah Palin's vote if she runs since there is no Huckabee. Right now there's an opening for a pure social conservative candidate.

Well, those are my thoughts. There's still time for a real heavy hitter that could appeal to everyone. I don't see anyone beating Obama among the bunch so far. Baring the economy getting worse, Obama will get 4 more years. I also think that if Obama loses, his successor will be a one termer. I think the nominee will either be one of the establishment guys with probably a tea partier as veep or candidate not in the race yet that would appeal to all factions.

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I think Pawlenty, Daniels or Huntsman could give Obama a run.

The rest are too extreme or have too much baggage.

Anybody decent could give O a run in the coming climate.

I look forward to seeing the Huntsman vs Romney skirmishes,and I hope Daniels runs

Should be very interesting and open for a sleeper with Huck declining

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IF Huntsman got the nomination, I would say he has almost a 50/50 chance of winning the entire thing. The math would certainly come into play with him, as I have shown in previous threads.

President Obama is still in a very good spot. He'll easily raise 1 billion dollars. He won't have a primary fight. He'll have a nice bankroll for the fall. However Ambassador Huntsman can provide a very compelling case and isn't insane. He is mormon though

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I think a lot will come down to how the camps divide.....a pretty good example of one of the games played

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/267282/romneys-path-ramesh-ponnuru

With the field clarifying, Mitt Romney’s interests now align well with those of one other possible candidate: Michele Bachmann. Both of them have an interest in seeing her do as well as possible.

Like Bob Dole in 1996 or John McCain in 2008, Romney is an establishment-oriented candidate with serious vulnerabilities on his right flank. To get the nomination, he needs (as they needed) to prevent the emergence of a single candidate to his right. So Dole made a tactical alliance with Pat Buchanan in Lousiana, helping to eject from the race the one candidate who could theoretically have denied him the nomination by consolidating voters to his right: Phil Gramm. McCain made a tactical alliance with Mike Huckabee against the candidate against whom both of them were competing and whom both of them hated: Romney.

Which candidate does Romney most need to worry about? In my view, it’s Tim Pawlenty. He can run to Romney’s right, but with establishment support, in a way that I don’t think Daniels or Huntsman can or want to.

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I think a lot will come down to how the camps divide.....a pretty good example of one of the games played

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/267282/romneys-path-ramesh-ponnuru

With the field clarifying, Mitt Romney’s interests now align well with those of one other possible candidate: Michele Bachmann. Both of them have an interest in seeing her do as well as possible.

Like Bob Dole in 1996 or John McCain in 2008, Romney is an establishment-oriented candidate with serious vulnerabilities on his right flank. To get the nomination, he needs (as they needed) to prevent the emergence of a single candidate to his right. So Dole made a tactical alliance with Pat Buchanan in Lousiana, helping to eject from the race the one candidate who could theoretically have denied him the nomination by consolidating voters to his right: Phil Gramm. McCain made a tactical alliance with Mike Huckabee against the candidate against whom both of them were competing and whom both of them hated: Romney.

Which candidate does Romney most need to worry about? In my view, it’s Tim Pawlenty. He can run to Romney’s right, but with establishment support, in a way that I don’t think Daniels or Huntsman can or want to.

I don't why anyone thinks Romney is going to appeal this time around. Just air commercials about him flip flopping over and over and morph his face into OBama when talking about healthcare. He will be finished. The Republican only primary voters aren't going to vote for this guy.

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Which is why divide and conquer is needed,he already has the money and organization,,,,somebody obviously likes him

Romney phone bank raises $10.25M in a single day

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110516/ap_on_go_ot/us_romney_campaign_money

Romney spent like 40 million last time and it didn't get him far. It's still early but I think there will be candidates will voters will prefer to Romney. I wouldn't for Slick Romney. It's Libertarian for the third straight time for me.

I might even vote for him over O

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You get that used car salesman vibe off him too? :pfft:

I'm eternally optimistic someone will step up that I don't have to hold my nose to vote for.

Ya never know,Cain got a good start

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Guest Spearfeather

This guy might not be there in 2012, but I'd be willing to bet, he'll be there in 2016.

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Guest Spearfeather
I'd love to see a Cain/West ticket just for the entertainment value

I think West would be the stronger candidate, personally.

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I think West would be the stronger candidate, personally.

I'm a fan,but he is too polarizing to lead a ticket

I'd certainly enjoy the race though

---------- Post added May-16th-2011 at 09:58 PM ----------

I think West would be the stronger candidate, personally.

I'm a fan,but he is too polarizing to lead a ticket

I'd certainly enjoy the race though

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IF Huntsman got the nomination, I would say he has almost a 50/50 chance of winning the entire thing. The math would certainly come into play with him, as I have shown in previous threads.

President Obama is still in a very good spot. He'll easily raise 1 billion dollars. He won't have a primary fight. He'll have a nice bankroll for the fall. However Ambassador Huntsman can provide a very compelling case and isn't insane. He is mormon though

Except he too will have the Mormon thing to deal with too

And Daniel just signed a stupid bill that will cost his state 7 million dollars so he could cut 3 million in funding for Planned Parenthood

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