Skinscast: What they should do, what they will do

[JimmiJo]

http://web.skinscast.com/subcast/2011/03/16/what-they-should-do-what-they-will-do/

What they should do, what they will do

Predicting the 10th pick

With a lockout underway across the National Football League, delaying the start of free agency, early attention is being turned to next month’s draft. The Redskins hold the 10th overall pick in the first round and following a season that created more questions than answers at key positions such as quarterback, running back, receiver, and defensive tackle; fans are wondering how Washington will use their first round selection. In fact, all the mail we receive these days are on the subject.

Will they draft offense or defense? Will they select the quarterback of the future, or shoot for a Hall of Fame receiver? Will they continue to rebuild the offensive line, or try to get the nastiest defensive lineman on the board?

To try and help, we convened a panel of experts to try and shed some light on the upcoming draft. Given Washington’s history of draft day surprises, we asked each expert two questions about the 10th overall selection:

1. Who should the Redskins draft?

2. Who will the Redskins draft?

Rick Snider – Washington Examiner

Who should the Redskins draft?

Jake Locker. The Redskins drop down to gain picks and get the quarterback they want.

Who will the Redskins draft?

Like I said, Locker. Backup choice — Julio Jones. He’s a beast.

David Elfin – The SportsXChange

Who should the Redskins draft?

Since both Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert scare me a little — I was on hand for the Heath Shuler debacle — and both might be gone by the 10th pick and because they’re apparently aren’t nose tackles worthy of that spot, I would trade down for extra picks, something the Redskins always need.

Click the link above to read the rest of the article...

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Yay. Two votes for big Jake. Get it done Bruce.

Snider and Reffkin ..... Now THAT''S what I'm talking about. ('Cept Reffkin had to be Reffkin and put Locker in by default. By all accounts he's Coach Mike's guy dude.).

Be interesting to know who Keim favours. He's normally pretty much on the money.

Hail.

[The Rook]

Very interesting. Just like any group of ExtremeSkins members:

:wave:

Trade down, DLine, WR, LB, QB, NT and even CB.

But you know, this is more fun than the years where the team was just "missing one piece". (Remember Adam the Arch year)

:helmet:The Rook

[S.T.real,lights,out]

Its easy to say trade back but we need a partner and i dont see that happening unless someone falls to us. And out of all the picks they mentioned i would be happy with all except CB unless some how the guy from LSU drops but no way thats going to happen.

[Chump Bailey]

Its easy to say trade back but we need a partner and i dont see that happening unless someone falls to us. And out of all the picks they mentioned i would be happy with all except CB unless some how the guy from LSU drops but no way thats going to happen.

I think there's a decent enough chance of someone falling to us that some team will covet.

[JimmiJo]

Updated with a late submission from John Keim.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

You ask and they deliver. Skinscast rocks!

Nice to know Keim also thinks Locker's high on Shanahan's radar. He still needs work, but one down year does not a bad QB make. I love the idea of trading down and still picking him, but it's where we trade down to that concerns me. What ever the general consciences of the "experts" is, I doubt he makes it out of the first still on the board.

Hail.

[Chump Bailey]

What ever the general consciences of the "experts" is, I doubt he makes it out of the first still on the board.

Hail.

I'm with you there too. Perhaps his good attitude will play a key role on where he's selected. It seems to me many of the QB's have some sort of issue there with the exception of a few. It can only help I think.

[SMU Redskin]

Really like what Homer said- I will be distraught if we take Julio at 10. He had problems with durability and dropping balls in college, what makes anyone think that will change in the pros? Plus, we have so many other needs right now that we can really be throwing 1st round picks at WRs. What good is a top flight WR if you don't have a QB to get him the ball or an o-line to protect that QB? Drafting Julio would reek of a Vinny move IMO

[Skins Talk]

Really like what Homer said- I will be distraught if we take Julio at 10. He had problems with durability and dropping balls in college, what makes anyone think that will change in the pros? Plus, we have so many other needs right now that we can really be throwing 1st round picks at WRs. What good is a top flight WR if you don't have a QB to get him the ball or an o-line to protect that QB? Drafting Julio would reek of a Vinny move IMO

Julio isn't a can't-miss prospect at receiver so it would be a bad move. I agree with you. The Redskins have no business taking a WR when they have more pressing needs. Julio's ability doesn't merit a "take the best player available" strategy.

[THE HAMMER'IN HOG]

Anyone looking to draft Locker early in the draft should have his head examined, and J. Jones has durability questions. We should trade down and get center M. Pouncey to anchor the middle of the line and finally solve the problem of Rabach getting pushed into the backfield on a regular basis, M.P. also has the ability to get out and block in space which is perfect for Shanny's zone blocking scheme. Then depending on what the #10 pick brings back RT, and RB, kid out of V-tech would fit nicely in Shanny's scheme. But if Ingrim is available at 10, I may just pull the trigger and take him he has 25 to30 carry a game move the chains ability, just not Shanny's style to grab a back that high. Trade down and build the O-line!

Ponder will be a much better QB than Locker, he may be the best QB in this draft if put in the right type of offensive scheme.

[Skins Talk]

Anyone looking to draft Locker early in the draft should have his head examined' date=' and J. Jones has durability questions. We should trade down and get center M. Pouncey to anchor the middle of the line and finally solve the problem of Rabach getting pushed into the backfield on a regular basis, M.P. also has the ability to get out and block in space which is perfect for Shanny's zone blocking scheme. Then depending on what the #10 pick brings back RT, and RB, kid out of V-tech would fit nicely in Shanny's scheme. But if Ingrim is available at 10, I may just pull the trigger and take him he has 25 to30 carry a game move the chains ability, just not Shanny's style to grab a back that high. Trade down and build the O-line!

Ponder will be a much better QB than Locker, he may be the best QB in this draft if put in the right type of offensive scheme.[/quote']

As a Tech fan, I would love to see Ryan Williams, but I don't know if he can pass block. Obviously he could develop and has tremendous upside, but his injury ridden year and the pass-blocking concerns might be enough to make Shanny think twice.

As for Ingram, saying no to him would be hard.

Do you think Ponder is worth a first round pick? I'm undecided.

[THE HAMMER'IN HOG]

As a Tech fan, I would love to see Ryan Williams, but I don't know if he can pass block. Obviously he could develop and has tremendous upside, but his injury ridden year and the pass-blocking concerns might be enough to make Shanny think twice.

As for Ingram, saying no to him would be hard.

Do you think Ponder is worth a first round pick? I'm undecided.

Ponders stock is going to continue to rise as we near the draft, he may push his way into the lower half of the 1st rd, if he had a little more arm strength I would say book him, Shanny likes a strong armed QB so it's tough to gauge his thoughts on him, although I think he has enough arm strength to make most NFL throws. I am just not in love with this years QB class it is IMO highly overated.

[texasthunder]

How come your panel of experts didnt pick our very own Dukes and Skins, his draft thread is legendary-

:pfft:

I am resigned to the fact we will go DL or LB, and yes I know our defense needs some help, but jeez, another year with Rex as our go to guy at qb doesnt look promising.

That and we have to wait another year to get that franchise qb we need, oh well, at least the qb talent next year should be prime choice.

[Hooper]

Really puzzled by how many think Locker is the pick. Clearly Kyle Shanahan has an huge input on things and what he values most in a QB is accuracy. Actually, Mike has said the same thing.

Ah, who the hell knows?

[Skins Talk]

Really puzzled by how many think Locker is the pick. Clearly Kyle Shanahan has an huge input on things and what he values most in a QB is accuracy. Actually, Mike has said the same thing.

Ah, who the hell knows?

Keim says he's come to that conclusion through talking to a ton of different talent evaluators. I think of lot of people are infatuated with the concept of what Locker can be rather than what he actually is. Shanahan has made that mistake before i.e. McNabb.

[Conn]

Keim says he's come to that conclusion through talking to a ton of different talent evaluators. I think of lot of people are infatuated with the concept of what Locker can be rather than what he actually is. Shanahan has made that mistake before i.e. McNabb.

Not sure if it would matter or not in the long run, but at least Locker would be very mold-able, unlike McNabb.

[Skins Talk]

Not sure if it would matter or not in the long run, but at least Locker would be very mold-able, unlike McNabb.

Locker is much younger. But you don't like to see a guy with his potential play as poorly as he did last year. I'd rather pass on first day QBs this year. I don't really like any of them.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Really puzzled by how many think Locker is the pick. Clearly Kyle Shanahan has an huge input on things and what he values most in a QB is accuracy. Actually, Mike has said the same thing.

Ah, who the hell knows?

Aside from two of the VERY few respectable journo's left out there from the Examiner calling it in this very thread, there's an interesting piece from Shanahan's "off-year", with a Denver radio station I seem to recall; which dependent on what you read into it was pretty telling on the Coaches admiration for Locker. I think darrellgreenie has a link, but don't quote me.

Hail.

[Hooper]

Aside from two of the VERY few respectable journo's left out there from the Examiner calling it in this very thread, there's an interesting piece from Shanahan's "off-year", with a Denver radio station I seem to recall; which dependent on what you read into it was pretty telling on the Coaches admiration for Locker. I think darrellgreenie has a link, but don't quote me.

Hail.

Cool. I'll check it out. And don't get me wrong -- I'm in no way slamming the guys in the article. Keim is the best in the business. It's just that having watched Locker play several times, I'm having trouble with the whole Shanahan/Locker thing. At least at number ten.

[RWJ]

Here is a post I submitted in another Jake Locker thread:

Did a google search and found the following info. Take it as you will.

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/i...owtopic=360684

Listening to the Brock & Salk show on KIRO today. Huard threw out an interesting observation. Apparently Mike Shanahan loves Jake Locker. Locker has a presser this Fridays and it wouldn't suprise Huard (he stressed though that this is his looking into the situation and that he has no inside info) if he decides to come out and declare for the draft. The Skins pick 4th. The Rams, in Huard's opinion, would be crazy to pass on Suh. That leaves both the Lions and Bucs who took QBs last year. There the Redskins sit at 4 with the chance to grab a QB Shanny is in love with. Sanchez took what 28 million last year being picked at # 5? That gives Locker what probably $40 million at 4? Is that too much money for Locker to pass up? Rumor only, but interesting.

Might Shanny be interested???

I don't think you fall in love with a player and fall out of love because of lower numbers his last year of college. Shanny didn't work out Cutler and there are no current scheduled private workouts with Jake Locker.

[mistertim]

I don't think you fall in love with a player and fall out of love because of lower numbers his last year of college. Shanny didn't work out Cutler and there are no current scheduled private workouts with Jake Locker.

First of all, nobody knows whether Shanahan was really so into Locker last year. That could all have been smoke and mirrors. He was really high on Cutler and not a single person outside of the organization heard a word about it. Think of it this way: you're the Skins and you have the #4 overall pick. Locker is going full steam ahead on the Hype Train with predictions that he should easily be a top 5 pick. Locker falls to you at 4. Since teams think that you are a legit threat to go for him they might start to try and outbid each other if they really want him. Its just the smart thing to do.

Second of all, you CAN lose interest in a player if they trend downward. Last year Locker was all about "potential" because he is very athletic and mobile. Then he said he was going back to school and people were waiting to see how great he would do with another year in the new offense. Expectations were high. Then he sort of laid an egg. Yes they did enough to get to and win a bowl game, but he was very "meh" this last season. Extremely inconsistent, comp % went down (it wasn't high to begin with), etc. Now he is widely viewed as maybe a mid to late 1st round talent and many have him falling out of the 1st entirely. If Shanahan picks Locker at 10 I think that means he is either a genius and really knows something nobody else does or it means he is very high on himself and thinks he can take a guy he was mediocre in college and turn him into a great NFL QB. Maybe he can, who knows. But that is a hell of a risk to take with the 10th overall pick when you may have some seriously elite talent on the board and lots of holes to fill.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

But that is a hell of a risk to take with the 10th overall pick when you may have some seriously elite talent on the board and lots of holes to fill.

Who knows who's elite and who's not coming out of the college ranks? The pro game is a WORLDS away from the collegiate level in most every facet. Who's to say which guy will assimilate to life as a pro, and which guy won't? How many Heisman winners for example have flopped in the pro's?

ANY pick, regardless of position or college reputation, is a massive gamble.

Hail.

[mistertim]

Who knows who's elite and who's not coming out of the college ranks? The pro game is a WORLDS away from the collegiate level in most every facet. Who's to say which guy will assimilate to life as a pro, and which guy won't? How many Heisman winners for example have flopped in the pro's?

ANY pick, regardless of position or college reputation, is a massive gamble.

Hail.

I agree that anyone could be a bust, but I think you're exaggerating a bit. Lets say you have Locker at 10, who really doesn't seem to be considered by most as worthy of a top 10 pick and many seem to think he isn't even worth a 1st round pick. He has plenty of athletic talent and is good at throwing on the run, but his flaws are very apparent and you know he is going to be a project in the NFL. Yes, every QB is going to be something of a project, but I think Locker will be more than most.

Then lets say you have one of the top D line guys in a pretty amazing DL draft fall to us at 10 like Bowers or Fairley. Who would you pick between them and Locker? Who is likely to have the biggest immediate impact? Most scouts seem to be of the opinion that both of those guys are "elite" talents who will be immediate difference makers. Sure, in a few years Locker could end up being a good NFL QB if coaching can end up fixing his issues and it will have been worth it, but that is completely unknown and still a big risk...especially at the QB position.

And history has shown that being a Heisman winner is pretty much irrelevant to the NFL. Most of the best NFL players never won a Heisman and many were never even considered. Most scouts and organizations realize it is irrelevant and don't take it into account, so that is almost off topic.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Trading down is harder to do than you would think. I think eventually, it's probable that the 'Skins are going to end up sticking at #10 and selecting the best player available.