turtle2328 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 15 hours ago, skinfan2k said: I cant understand how any fan can pay their hard earned money to see a team that you have 0 chance at a superbowl. Until then, buy tickets on the game week and save money Their odds right now are 1:32... Same as every other team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB452 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 This article says more like 70:1..... https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/05/2019-super-bowl-odds-favorites-liii-patriots-packers-eagles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle2328 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 58 minutes ago, MarkB452 said: This article says more like 70:1..... https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/05/2019-super-bowl-odds-favorites-liii-patriots-packers-eagles Those are Vegas handicapping numbers not their odds. There are 32 possible outcomes. One of those 32 outcomes is the Redskins winning the SB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 hours ago, turtle2328 said: Their odds right now are 1:32... Same as every other team. Odds are different than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightningBuggs Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Got my renewal notice Friday. And immediately threw it in the "circular file" with a smile on my face. Tired of throwing away thousands of hard earned dollars on this inept organization. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle2328 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 7:36 PM, skinfan2k said: Odds are different than reality. If you're watching a roulette wheel, and black has come up 10 straight times, do you feel your odds are better betting on black because of the history, or red because it's due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 14 hours ago, turtle2328 said: If you're watching a roulette wheel, and black has come up 10 straight times, do you feel your odds are better betting on black because of the history, or red because it's due? Over a infinite amount of spins you are right. What you dont realize is that tilt occurs and you can have 100 blacks in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB452 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 9:55 PM, turtle2328 said: If you're watching a roulette wheel, and black has come up 10 straight times, do you feel your odds are better betting on black because of the history, or red because it's due? Personally, I'm thinking after 10 straight blacks, the dang think is broken and going for black. Prob of black =.486 Prob of 10 black in a row = (.486)^10 = 0.0007351 = 1 / 1360.3 On 3/9/2018 at 4:28 PM, turtle2328 said: One of those 32 outcomes is the Redskins winning the SB Yes, but not all of those outcomes are equally likely. I think the Patriots have a better chance of winning the next SuperBowl than the Browns do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle2328 Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 1:57 PM, MarkB452 said: Personally, I'm thinking after 10 straight blacks, the dang think is broken and going for black. Prob of black =.486 Prob of 10 black in a row = (.486)^10 = 0.0007351 = 1 / 1360.3 Yes, but not all of those outcomes are equally likely. I think the Patriots have a better chance of winning the next SuperBowl than the Browns do. But you only think that because the Patriots (black) keep coming up. Maybe it's broken. But it doesn't matter if black has come up 9 times in a row. Odds of the 10th time being black are 18/38 just like the Redskins odds this year are 1/32. You could have 100 blacks in a row. I just wouldn't bet on that happening at spin #1. Still, you guys are missing my point somewhat. Even if we did win the Super Bowl this year, it doesn't make me feel confident that they'll win again in 2020. Odds in 2020 are once again 1/32. Basing your fandom or purchasing habits based on the ability of a team to defy the odds means you're not really interested in fandom or purchasing. If a winning ticket is the only ticket worth buying, you're only buying recap DVDs from Sports Illustrated in Super Bowl years. Maybe you'd buy a Super Bowl ticket because at least your odds are 1/2 vs. 1/32 for the season ticket package. A season ticket purchaser is signing up for the journey in the hopes of seeing the UNLIKELY outcome. The unlikely outcome is the exciting and valuable outcome simply because it's unlikely. Some people want to say they were there to see it. To say it the other way, there's a reason why you don't get offered a payout for betting on the field in roulette. And if you could, that'd be boring anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB452 Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 On 3/28/2018 at 12:23 PM, turtle2328 said: you only think that because the Patriots (black) keep coming up. Yes, plus they still have a QB named Brady, a coach who loves hoodies, etc. If both of them retired/died, I might not be enthusiastic about their chances. Tell you what, if you believe all teams have an equal chance, then I will construct a list of 16 teams for you and 16 teams for me. Given your logic, the probability of a team winning the SuperBowl from either group is EQUALLY likely (50% chance for each group). I am willing to bet upwards of $500 that the next SuperBowl (LIII) winner will come from my group. In other news, I renewed my seats today. They are offering you a choice between e-tickets and regular tickets. There is a payment plan (3 month - first payment due now, next April 15, and final May 15). There is a $25 (BS) handling fee surcharge. You can sign up for the pay as we play for the paloffs. One screen shows a $25 fee for Paloffs and the screen where you actually agree to the price did not show the $25 fee. The price of the paloff tickets is the same as the price of a regular season ticket. In my case, it was $86. I am in the upper part of the upper sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Got a mailer today offering lower level sidelines for previous STH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOF44 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 18 hours ago, hail2skins said: Got a mailer today offering lower level sidelines for previous STH Oh how the mighty have fallen.... sad times for Redskins fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle2328 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 22 hours ago, MarkB452 said: Yes, plus they still have a QB named Brady, a coach who loves hoodies, etc. If both of them retired/died, I might not be enthusiastic about their chances. Tell you what, if you believe all teams have an equal chance, then I will construct a list of 16 teams for you and 16 teams for me. Given your logic, the probability of a team winning the SuperBowl from either group is EQUALLY likely (50% chance for each group). I am willing to bet upwards of $500 that the next SuperBowl (LIII) winner will come from my group. You want me to bet $500 straight up on a coin flip? How about you pick 2 teams, none of which are the Redskins, and I'll get the field? I'd also be down with you picking 10 teams, leaving me 22 teams, and counting up Super bowl wins over the coming decade. FYI - odds are presently 6:1 and 10:1 for the Pats and Steelers respectively. So if you bet $250 on each, you'd net $1250 or $2250 pre-vig. Meanwhile, Bears, Browns, Jets are 150:1. The Patriots are not 25 times more likely to win the super bowl than any of those 3 teams. Nor are they 12.5 times more likely to win than the Redskins or twice as likely to win as the Eagles, Packers or Vikings - all 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOF44 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, turtle2328 said: You want me to bet $500 straight up on a coin flip? How about you pick 2 teams, none of which are the Redskins, and I'll get the field? I'd also be down with you picking 10 teams, leaving me 22 teams, and counting up Super bowl wins over the coming decade. FYI - odds are presently 6:1 and 10:1 for the Pats and Steelers respectively. So if you bet $250 on each, you'd net $1250 or $2250 pre-vig. Meanwhile, Bears, Browns, Jets are 150:1. The Patriots are not 25 times more likely to win the super bowl than any of those 3 teams. Nor are they 12.5 times more likely to win than the Redskins or twice as likely to win as the Eagles, Packers or Vikings - all 12:1. So thats a NO?? lol And all these odds, i thought everyone was 32:1 Edited March 30, 2018 by HOF44 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 2 hours ago, HOF44 said: So thats a NO?? lol And all these odds, i thought everyone was 32:1 @turtle2328Money talks, bull**** walks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseBowlrz Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 On 3/29/2018 at 6:22 PM, hail2skins said: Got a mailer today offering lower level sidelines for previous STH Lower level sidelines for previous season ticket holders? All the more reason not to renew: let them beg me to come back with better seats than I already have now (lower level end zone, aisle seats). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle2328 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 5:39 PM, skinfan2k said: @turtle2328Money talks, bull**** walks. On 3/30/2018 at 2:48 PM, HOF44 said: So thats a NO?? lol And all these odds, i thought everyone was 32:1 Gentlemen, those are the odds Vegas will extend to you. The mathematical odds are in fact 1:32. If someone wants to extend a bet where the mathematical odds are in my favor, I'll accept. If you believe the odds are NOT 1:32, you should be happy to give me better than 16 teams out of 32. I'm especially interested in this sort of thing over a series of years, not just one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB452 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 2:48 PM, HOF44 said: So thats a NO?? lol And all these odds, i thought everyone was 32:1 Yes, hence the conditions of my bet. How about 17 teams for you that I pick and 15 for me that I pick? According to your calculations, you should have a win probability of 17/32 vs. 15/32 for me (..and you can have the Redskins as one of your 17 teams...I would gladly pay $500 to see the Redskins win a Superbowl). ...which reminds me of this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle2328 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/3/2018 at 10:02 AM, MarkB452 said: Yes, hence the conditions of my bet. How about 17 teams for you that I pick and 15 for me that I pick? According to your calculations, you should have a win probability of 17/32 vs. 15/32 for me (..and you can have the Redskins as one of your 17 teams...I would gladly pay $500 to see the Redskins win a Superbowl). ...which reminds me of this..... Add up superbowl wins for your 15 vs. my 17 over a 10 year span? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB452 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 -- we have hijacked this thread for too long....need to start a new thread on this. Add up superbowl wins for your 15 vs. my 17 over a 10 year span? >> Would I get to repick your 17 each year? The Browns are bad now, but maybe (just maybe) they will be good in 8 - 10 years. Heck, Carolina and Jacksonville played in their conference championship games in their second season. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_NFL_season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB452 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 1:11 PM, HOF44 said: Oh how the mighty have fallen.... sad times for Redskins fans. My brother now has my dad's LL seats in his name and was either going to not renew them or sell off the season to a friend of his son. I have no desire to have them myself as they are about $140 a game during the regular season and thanks to the Dream Seats, you have to stand the whole game. My seats in 401 are $87 and I don't have to stand a lot. I attended my first game in 1970 with my dad with those tickets...will be sad to see them go, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle2328 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 16 hours ago, MarkB452 said: -- we have hijacked this thread for too long....need to start a new thread on this. Add up superbowl wins for your 15 vs. my 17 over a 10 year span? >> Would I get to repick your 17 each year? The Browns are bad now, but maybe (just maybe) they will be good in 8 - 10 years. Heck, Carolina and Jacksonville played in their conference championship games in their second season. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_NFL_season No repick. Season tickets are not a one year investment. You've had season tickets since the 70's. If you get rid of those lowers this year, there is no guarantee you'll be able to get those seats if we ever do catch lightning in a bottle and you decide to be interested again. But holding them and selling them year to year is terrible financial decision and a net negative to the team if they end up in the hands of opposing teams. The best choice is to buy them and use them. The next best would be to buy them and sell them a Redskins fan that will go to every game. Or give them to Redskins fans. The worst thing you can do is let them fall into the hands of opposing team fans... at any price. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 season tickets are a worthless investment. I have gone to each game in the last few years for under $400 for a total season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan1311 Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 21 minutes ago, skinfan2k said: season tickets are a worthless investment. I have gone to each game in the last few years for under $400 for a total season "investment" ?? C'mon Man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Skinsfan1311 said: "investment" ?? C'mon Man! check out my language. Investment was the key word. if it's your entertainment, then i dont think so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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