NRO: What We Can Do in Libya

[twa]

Interesting that neither Egypt nor Tunisia wants to intervene in Libya.

]

Not surprising they don't want to commit acts of war against a neighbor (openly)

Even if Gaddafi is removed there will remain groups that will hold a grudge

[Larry]

Not surprising they don't want to commit acts of war against a neighbor (openly)

Even if Gaddafi is removed there will remain groups that will hold a grudge

OTOH, if the rebels win, then being the neighbor that helped out could pay some serious dividends.

Although to me, the big risk would be that if, say, Egypt were to intervene, militarily, then will it be seen as Egypt trying to annex parts of Libya?

[visionary]

Although to me, the big risk would be that if, say, Egypt were to intervene, militarily, then will it be seen as Egypt trying to annex parts of Libya?

I've wondered about that as well.

This might be part of the reason for not getting involved.

Although one might think it wouldn't keep them from using planes or air bases to help, or sending humanitarian help in much larger numbers.

3:12pm Six Danish F-16 fighter jets have landed at the US naval air station in Sigonella, Sicily, Lars Skjoldan, a Danish air force spokesman, says. Norway will also be contributing six F-16's to an international military effort in Libya, in line with UN resolution 1973.

3:27pm Karl Stagno-Navarra, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Malta, reports that the Maltese government has said that any monitoring of a ceasefire in Libya should by carried out "under the auspices of the United Nations".

Earlier, Tripoli had requested Malta to be part of a group of countries requested to monitor the ceasefire.

3:40pm Reuters quotes a Canadian government spokesman as saying that his country backs quick action in Libya, and would need two days to prepare a mission with its fighter jets in the region.

---------- Post added March-19th-2011 at 10:27 AM ----------

http://twitter.com/dovenews

BREAKING!! French airplanes are flying in the sky of Benghazi 2 protect civilians. Air strikes will start after the Paris summit in 1hr time 8 minutes ago via web

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-19

4:17pm French media group BFMTV's website claims that French planes have flown over Benghazi to prevent pro-Gaddafi army movements.

4:20pm French reconnaissance planes have entered Libyan airspace, several news agencies are now reporting, citing French military sources.

4:22pm AFP reports that French planes are Rafale fighter jets, flying reconnaissance missions across "all Libyan territory", citing a military source.

---------- Post added March-19th-2011 at 10:47 AM ----------

UPDATE

http://twitter.com/ksnavarra

On Aljazeera from an Arab diplomatic source in Paris summit: decision to use for in #Libya was taken. 3 minutes ago via TweetDeck

#France reconnaissance missions will take place all Sat afternoon, the planes encountered no problems after several hours overflying #Libya 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

Al Arabiya correspondent in Paris: British forces will take the military lead & French will handle coordination 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

#SommetdeParis: current #Libyan regime has to withdraw from areas they entered by force return to their compounds and allow humanitarian aid 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

#Sarkozy to address press conference shortly #Libya less than a minute ago via TweetDeck

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-19

4:32pm Al Jazeera is hearing from French journalists that French fighter jets will begin their strike operations by targetting pro-Gaddafi tanks around Benghazi in order to send a message that they are breaking the siege.

President Sarkozy is speaking now!!!!

[visionary]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-19

5:42pm The Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) has held a meeting of its executive committee in Jeddah on the situation in Libya.

The body has called on member-states to begin establishing contacts with the Benghazi-based opposition's National Council. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, the body's secretary-general said:

Since legitimacy emanates from the people and if force is utilised against the people, legitimacy loses its foundations. Therefore we call upon the OIC members states to establish contacts with the Libyan interim national council."

6:15pm In brief comments in the Brazilian capital, Brasilia, Barack Obama, the US president, says that the people of Libya must be protected and that the United States is ready to act in that country.

He also said he joins Brazil in condemning human rights abuses in Libya.

http://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi

I never imagined a day will come when I anxiously await US bombs to fall over an Arab country. Damn you #Gaddafi. #Libya 10 minutes ago via web

http://twitter.com/LibyaFeb17_com

Six Danish F16s ready for operation Sunday - #feb17 #libya - http://t.co/GQzOuFa 2 minutes ago via Tweet Button

http://twitter.com/ksnavarra

Canada's Prime Minister Harper says naval actions also taking place in #Libya, including a naval blockade 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

---------- Post added March-19th-2011 at 12:55 PM ----------

UPDATE

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418

#1611: Douglas Alexander, the UK shadow foreign secretary, says the government has the full support of the opposition. He says the Paris summit was "a powerful statement of the unity of the international community in the face of the slaughter we are seeing in Libya."\r

#1624: Former security minister Lord West says Colonel Gaddafi's forces should be "very afraid" of military intervention by the West. "He's bringing retribution on those trying to support him. If I were them, I would be thinking very hard about what they are doing," Lord West adds.

#1637: UK shadow defence secretary Jim Murphy says military intervention marked the "moment of truth for the international community to end the slaughter of innocents in Libya". He continues: "The government is right to take strong and urgent action against Colonel Gaddafi's military capabilities. Gaddafi has no-one to blame but himself. Britain should stand in solidarity with the Libyan people."

#1644: Mrs Clinton says that if the international community is to have credibility in voting for a no fly zone over Libya then "action must take place".

#1646: Activist group Feb 17 voices, based in Libya, tweets: "Clinton: We are standing with the People of #Libya and we will not waver in our efforts to protect them. #Libya"

#1650: Mrs Clinton says calls by the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council for UN action to impose a no-fly zone "were of historic importance".

#1653: France will send an aircraft carrier to Libya, the French defence ministry has told AFP.

---------- Post added March-19th-2011 at 01:08 PM ----------

http://twitter.com/lilysnowwhite

@LibyaInMe I am Egyptian, but I think I am becoming more and more Libyan every day. Your country has become so important to me. 7 minutes ago via web in reply to LibyaInMe

http://twitter.com/cashaay

@lilysnowwhite @LibyaInMe I know what you mean, I'm German and I feel the same =) 6 minutes ago via web in reply to lilysnowwhite

---------- Post added March-19th-2011 at 01:14 PM ----------

http://twitter.com/HMS_Cumberland

Merkel says Germany will now look to support international action. less than a minute ago via Twitter for Mac

---------- Post added March-19th-2011 at 01:20 PM ----------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418

#1712: Thousands of Somalis fleeing from Libya have arrived at refugee camps in Tunisia, the Somali Shabeelle Media Network website has reported.

[thehogs]

French fighter jet opens fire on Gaddafi ground forces:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12795971

[Larry]

OK, now. Time for Larry the Skeptic to step in, here.

Let's just suppose that this bold, new, coalition steps in here, and actually accomplishes their mission. Assume that all civilian massacres end. Tomorrow. All over Libya.

I hereby invoke the dreaded phrase "exit strategy".

Assume that this coalition is able to freeze things the way they are right now. Gaddafi owns X% of the country, the rebels own y%.

How does that get us to "game over"?

Assume that our desired outcome, here, is Gaddafi out, and a constitutional democracy begins to form. Can the rebels accomplish that objective, without more help?

Frankly, I don't see any reason to just assume that they can.

[visionary]

OK, now. Time for Larry the Skeptic to step in, here.

Let's just suppose that this bold, new, coalition steps in here, and actually accomplishes their mission. Assume that all civilian massacres end. Tomorrow. All over Libya.

I hereby invoke the dreaded phrase "exit strategy".

Assume that this coalition is able to freeze things the way they are right now. Gaddafi owns X% of the country, the rebels own y%.

How does that get us to "game over"?

Assume that our desired outcome, here, is Gaddafi out, and a constitutional democracy begins to form. Can the rebels accomplish that objective, without more help?

Frankly, I don't see any reason to just assume that they can.

I think the idea is to intimidate those around Gaddafi to defect and perhaps take him out.

Also there is hope that with a taking out of armor and other heavy artillery of Gaddafi that the rebels will be able to reclaim ground and cities.

Plus there is the idea that many "pacified" towns and cities will rise up again in revolt if they are no longer being pressed by heavy military forces.

There is the hope even that people in Sirt and Tripoli will join the revolution ( there have been many reports and rumors of people in Sirt already rising up against Gaddafi in some areas and everyone knows that Tajoura in Tripoli has already revolted and is likely to do so again if they are not too terrified of being shot and arrested) The main question is how much influence will international military action in Libya have on people in Sirt and Tripoli?

[visionary]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-19

9:53pm Al Jazeera's correspondent Kimberly Halkett was present at a Pentagon briefing on operations in Libya. She reports that the US is targetting Integrated Missile Defence Systems along the Libyan coast.

Those strikes are the first wave, where the US is in the lead of coalition efforts which involve France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada.

The US will be in control for an unspecified period of time, but then will transfer control to coalition forces. Currently operations of the Joint Task Force are being run from the USS Mt Whitney. There are about 25 ships and submarines present in Mediterranean that will be taking part in operations.

9:59pm Reuters reports that no major coalition strikes have been initially planned around the opposition stronghold of Benghazi.

Operations in the first phase are currently aimed at degrading the Libyan government's air defences.

10:12pm The Pentagon says that the UAE and Qatar will also be involved in military operations in Libya, but will announce their involvement themselves.

The operation falls under the operational command of the US African Command, under General Carter Hamm. Tactical execution is being run out of the USS Mount Whitney, Admiral Sam Locklear commanding.

Off the coast of Libya, there are: 11 vessels from Italy, 11 from the US (including three submarines, each with 100 missiles on board), one from the UK, one from France and one from Canada.

The no-fly zone will encompass Tripoli, Sabha, Natoura, Misurata and Benghazi.

10:17pm A high-level African Union panel on the Libyan crisis has rejected "any kind of foreign military intervention" in Libya.

The African Union is supposedly largely buddies with Gaddafi.

Although I don't know why Nigeria and South Africa voted for the UN resolution.

[visionary]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/africa/2011/03/19/libyan-envoys-secret-visit-tunis-exposed

Muammar Gaddafi has sent a top diplomat to Tunisia in what was supposed to be a secret visit.

Ali Treki, Libya's former foreign minister, is staying at the same hotel where Ban Ki-Moon, the UN Secretary-General, is booked when he arrives on Tuesday.

When Nazanine Moshiri, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tunisia, uncovered Ali Treki's visit to Tunis, the Libyan diplomat responded with a burst of rage.

Treki, who was president of the UN General Assembly until September, berated the Al Jazeera team when they filmed him in the lobby of the Regency Hotel in Gammarth, a suburb north of Tunis, on Saturday afternoon.

"You animal, stop shooting," Treki told Samir Gharbiah, Al Jazeera's cameraman, as his security personnel attempted to block Al Jazeera from filming.

Security staff at the hotel, at the request of Treki, tried to destroy Al Jazeera's camera, and to confiscate the footage of Treki. They manhandled Gharbiah and producer Youssef Gaigi, pushing them out into the hotel carpark.

It was only after the Tunisian police intervened that Moshiri and her team were freed, tapes in hand. The hotel’s manager apologised and tried to insist that no mention be made of the Regency in any reports about the incident, saying that it dampen the UN Secretary-General’s willingness to stay at the hotel during his coming visit.

Gaigi said the hotel manager’s change of stance came only after Al Jazeera had contacted the interior ministry.

"I believe he was under pressure from different people." Gaigi said.

Word had already spread on Twitter, and around 30 Libyan protesters arrived to demonstrate against the hotel's treatment of the journalists.

Apparently backing away from its support for Treki once the protesters arrived, the hotel permitted the protesters to raise the pre-Gaddafi Libyan flag that has been adopted by the Libyan opposition.

[visionary]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-20-0

6:36am Iraq's parliament was set to vote (likely in favour) about whether to recognise the Libyan national opposition council but had to delay until after the Persian new year - set to begin tonight - in order to get a quorum, Al Jazeera's producer in Baghdad reports.

[visionary]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418

#1412: Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, in comments on Egypt's official state news agency, wants an emergency meeting of the organisation. "What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone, and what we want is the protection of civilians and not the bombardment of more civilians," he said.

This guy seems to love contradicting himself.

And I don't know why he's following Libyan state tv.

Everyone on Twitter is blasting Moussa and Russia this morning.

[twa]

Typical Arab League BS...the game is just starting

http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/03/19/can-nato-topple-the-khadaffi-regime/

Even if he does none of these things, Libya’s economy is finished for the duration; and the need to feed or sustain the poorest of the population — already reeling from high prices — will become critical. They will become a charge on the West simply because there’s nobody else who can do it.

The longer the operation drags on the greater the chance, strange as it may seem, that the Duck of Death will attract support. He certainly will, from all the fringe elements and crackpots of the world. Louis Farrakhan today came out in support of Khadaffi and so has Chavez. Farrakhan said that “they would love to go into Libya and kill brother Khadaffi and his children as they did to Saddam Hussein.” Obama faced hostile leftist crowds in Brazil. Even Joan Baez has recently expressed her misgivings. If a humanitarian crisis occurs in Libya, these protests will redouble; it will not matter whether it was authorized by the Security Council or led by France. It will be, as it always is, America’s fault .

The best outcome for West is for Khadaffi to be reasonable; accept safe passage out with his billions to Venezuela, perhaps, where “the rum is fine any time of year” and to give way to a quick and nondestructive takeover of Libya. He should do this. But will he? He would if he were sane … but there you go.

[JMS]

Typical Arab League BS...the game is just starting

Louis Farrakhan today came out in support of Khadafi and so has Chavez. Farrakhan said that “they would love to go into Libya and kill brother Khadafi and his children as they did to Saddam Hussein.” Obama faced hostile leftist crowds in Brazil. Even Joan Baez has recently expressed her misgivings. If a humanitarian crisis occurs in Libya, these protests will redouble; it will not matter whether it was authorized by the Security Council or led by France. It will be, as it always is, America’s fault .

Do you remember a few years back when Kadafi who was still our chief enemy at the time tried to give the Black Muslims ( Farrakhan's group) a billion dollars to fund their work in the United States. The US government stepped in and said if you give it to them, we will take it away from them at the same time. The funds transfers did not occur to my knowledge. But the lesson is clear. Kadafi was funding every crack pot fringe violent group in existence at one time or the other. The Black Muslims are no exception. Of coarse they are going to get his support.

As for Joan Baez. Dude, she don't speak for the left in this country. I would put two thoughts in front of you.

(1) The left in the US isn't that strong, and they certainly aren't in control of the Democratic Party. Obama is a centrist pragmatist not a liberal. I'm a liberal and I know the difference.

(2) The Left in American Politics lead us into and through just about every major war in US History except the most recent Iraq Afghanistan war. Historically one of the strongest messages the Republicans had was they had historically kept the nation at peace. Democrats were responsive or at least in command when WWI, WWII, Korea, and Vietnam had started. FDR probable the most left wing occupant of the white house ever, was also likely the countries greatest war president ever.

So I wouldn't throw Joan Baez out as the poster child for the left.

The best outcome for West is for Khadafi to be reasonable; accept safe passage out with his billions to Venezuela, perhaps, where “the rum is fine any time of year” and to give way to a quick and nondestructive takeover of Libya. He should do this. But will he? He would if he were sane … but there you go.

I agree with you mostly. As for Qaddafi being "insane", I think Ronald Reagan had it right. Insane folks get pretty rational when the consequences of their actions are staring them in the face. I think that's the kind of "insanity" which is most prevalent in the middle east. Did you catch that we used a few missiles on Gaddafi's compound? This morning we were also saying the coalition goals might soon evolve into removing Kadafi from power. Taken in tandem that's a pretty clear signal to Mr. Kadafi. Go out like Idi Amin and retire in luxury in some nook of the world, or we'll hang you from a yardarm like Saddam. Let's see how "insane" he is when we drive that leason home.