A Closer Look at 2011 defensive Prospects

[darrelgreenie]

If Dareus is on the board and other talent is still available would you accept and offer to trade down?

[ArmchairRedskin]

That's kind of a vague scenario. Lets just say that taking Dareus at ten would be down my list of options.

[Kostaskins]

3-4 de's are definitely needed. thats why i can see us going for cameron jordan with the 10th pick and if dareus is there he would fit too...

int he 2nd i wouldnt mind getting phil taylor if hes there or maybe dropping down some and getting stephean paea and then getting the kid from hamilton to be a nt as well.

[thedoc4454]

In the first trade down. draft JJ watts.2d rd Phil Taylor and Brooks Reed. 5th rd Alex Wuliak MLB U of M

Defense: DE JJ Watts Adam Caraker

NT Phil Taylor

OLB Brian Orakpo, Brooks Reed

ILB Alex Wojiak, London Flethcer

Now that is a front seven! Bigger, faster, meaner

[darrelgreenie]

That's kind of a vague scenario. Lets just say that taking Dareus at ten would be down my list of options.

I can't predict the future so I can't really make a more specific scenario.

Let me rephrase it this way:

If Dareus is available at 10 would you consider trading out if it were an option?

Draft value for the 10th pick=1300

Random Draft values:

16th=1,000

20th=850

32nd=590

2nd round

33=580

46th=440

60th=300

3rd round

65th=265

[number twenty-eight]

Perhaps too optimistic here, but I really liked Bryant once he got a shot. His injury history worries me, but I'd be happy for him to start and rotate with a late round NT or Golston. To my thinking, this lets us focus on QB, DE or OLB with the first two picks and makes use of one piece of talent already on the roster.

Some late NT options are:

Ian Williams, Notre Dame (6'2" 310)

projected 4-6

Chris Nield, West Virginia (6'2" 310)

projected 4-6

Anthony Gray, Southern Miss (6' 320)

projected 6-7

Colby Whitlock, Texas Tech (6'2" 295)

projected 6-7

Harold Ayodele, Emporia State (6'1" 330)

projected 7-UDFA

Williams has some talent but doesn't look like he'll get much bigger. Nield seems like he could fill out more. Gray looks more like what we need, a pretty good option really. Whitlock is a fatbodied Kelly Gregg type. Ayodele has been a college dud, but was once a decent recruit and is protosized (Akin and Remi's little brother).

[Snagletooth]

I would say it all starts up front. But I would think an elite 3-4 could be built around power run stuffer types at the 5-tech. 300lb plus "playmakers" are clearly best utilized as penetraters in 4-3 fronts. If I could have one star It would be at rush linebacker over 5-tech DE.

[Going Commando]

That's because good teams draft towards the end of the first round, and rookies taken then are surrounded by more talent.

Additionally, in the top 10, there is pressure to get high ceiling guys (who are usually unfinished products who take some adjustment time).

But also because the difference in talent between first round prospects isn't as large as it's often made out to be. I think it's important to point out the disproportionately high cost teams place on the right to choose. It's why the TVC is completely ****ed up. The price of the top 3 picks according to it is absolutely outrageous. This isn't the NBA. There are far more than three exceptionally strong prospects in every class. Most of the time the number of impact players in each class relative to each other stretches into the 20's. Those players are dispersed throughout the entire class, but quite a few of them seem to get drafted from the late teens into the early second round.

It's interesting that you point out that teams are pressured into taking players with high upside early. That's another peril of drafting in the top 10. The cost of the right to choose is balanced a bit by the negative value of higher expectations. Given that a player's draft value stems largely from the safety of his projection, you would think that teams would bat for the "sure things" early on.

Like you said, teams that hit for singles consistently are the ones who actually end up good (i.e., picking in the 20's).

I strongly disagree - elite DL are much harder to find than edge rushing LBs or thumping MLBs. I take Richard Seymour before Willie McGinest, and I certianly take Aaron Smith before James Harrison. And Ngata is far and away the most important player on Balt's defense.

I agree. I'd also add that Shaun Ellis is the best player in his defensive front. Linebackers, especially solid, athletic interior guys, are a dime a dozen. I would take Haloti Ngata over any linebacker in the entire league. In the long haul, I would take Raji over any linebacker as well. I think Linebackers are more important for the emotional value they bring to the defense and less so for the effect they have on each play. Guys that tackle and run well that are 6'2 and 240 pounds literally come out every single year and are available late into the draft. The pass rushers are a bit harder to find, but again, their play is dependent on how well the guys in front of them play. When you have a Shaun Ellis wreaking havoc in front of you, an ordinary guy like Bryan Thomas can become an extremely effective player and lead your team in sacks.

The Jets have one of the best defenses in the league and their linebackers are probably the least talented position group they have.

Also, we have a stud OLB and ILB already, which makes the value of DL even more disproportionately high for our organization.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 12:36 PM ----------

I would say it all starts up front. But I would think an elite 3-4 could be built around power run stuffer types at the 5-tech. 300lb plus "playmakers" are clearly best utilized as penetraters in 4-3 fronts. If I could have one star It would be at rush linebacker over 5-tech DE.

Richard Seymour, Haloti Ngata, Shaun Ellis, and B.J. Raji are all playmaking 3-4 defensive ends who are/were among the best players on their defense.

Also playmaking isn't defined only by tackles and sacks; that's an extremely narrow way to view the game. That ignores about 90% of what a defense actually does each snap. If playmaking was measured in official NFL stats LTs wouldn't be the second highest paid position on average.

Playmaking is about winning your assignment on a consistent basis, dictating how the offense (or defense if you're an offensive player) can respond. A dominant DE like Ngata draws the most difficult assignments of anyone on his defense because he has to win against two men frequently. Ngata's impact on each game he plays is impressive, and is typically larger than anyone else on his defense. He alters what the offense can do with the ball and dictates where an offense can run; he causes one and often two of the offensive players to fail their assignments on a regular basis; he beats up and batters offensive linemen, softening them over the course of the game; he causes interior pressure on passing downs that alters the rhythm of the quarterback and makes him prey for the linebackers by taking away his ability to maneuver in the pocket; if the QB doesn't react to Ngata's pressure and allows Ngata to hit him, the QB takes a monstrous shot that has a demoralizing effect; thus he can soften the QB as well; and then sometimes Haloti Ngata makes the tackles himself, like his 11 tackle effort @ Steelers this year where he completely took over that game. Those are just the ways he impacts the game that I can think of off the top of my head.

Is it any coincidence that, by far, our best defensive performance was against the Bears when Albert Haynesworth had the best game of his career as a Redskin? This year, when Albert was dominant, we could beat two of the best teams in the league (Bears, Jets in preseason). The Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs this year largely because Shaun Ellis had a game for the ages. He actually softened and intimidated Tom Brady--one of the coolest and clutchest QBs in the history of the NFL.

When a DL becomes unstoppable, there is nothing to be done. You can't function on offense with consistency. They are the a priori position of defense in football. You can try and slow a rampaging DL by doubling him and bringing in a back to chip and creating moving pockets. But doing so is a losing situation because it only leaves one or two of his teammates completely free to attack the ball.

[ArmchairRedskin]

Funny you mention Shaun Ellis because the big knock on the Jets defense is they can't get to the QB. They don't have that dominant, playmaking LB and that hurt them in the second Patriots game when they could have sealed up their division and it hurt them in the second Steelers game when they couldn't stop a nose bleed in the first half or Big Ben when the game was on the line.

LBs' may be a dime a dozen, but the Ray Lewis, James Harrison, Clay Matthews and DeMarcus Ware types are not. I'm not saying that the DL can be bums, I'm saying you don't need stars on the DL. You do need stars at LB. At least on standout, but the more the better. 4 dominant LB's have a lot more effect on the game than 3 dominant DL do. It's just the way the 3-4 is set up. You could argue a lot more for a 4-3 DL. In that defense a dominant DL can outweigh LB's.

And for the record, if you gave me a choice of any player to pick up as a rookie to build my 3-4 with the knowledge of how good they'd become, I'd take Ray Lewis.

But again, I don't think there's a wrong answer here. I think it's just a difference of philosophy. My philosophy puts a lot of weight in having the players that a 3-4 is designed around to be the best players on the field.