db: Gibbs: America Will Not Take Sides in Egypt

[Larry]

Wondering if the people are more pissed at the police for beating up demonstrators, or for running away and disappearing.

[twa]

Wondering if the people are more pissed at the police for beating up demonstrators, or for running away and disappearing.

Imagine it depends on the people,I can tell ya being on your own gives ya a better appreciation for them

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

You are conflating the police with the secret police

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205798

In 1993, he was appointed by Mubarak to head the all-powerful General Intelligence Directorate, which has been described by Egyptian journalist Issandr Amrani as an organization that “combines the intelligence-gathering elements of the CIA, the counterterrorism role of the FBI, the protection duties of the Secret Service, and the high-level diplomacy of the State Department.”

The Interior Minister (his name is El Adly btw) controls the Central Security Forces, which is basically like the military wing of the police. They're the ones disappearing people. He's the one with the power.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Security_Forces

The Egyptian government subsequently came to rely on the CSF to quench any source of instability within the country and to uphold the emergency laws imposed on Egypt since the 1981 assassination of the President of Egypt, Anwar Sadat.

[twa]

Not what I think of as secret police or the real power,which is the Mukhabarat to me...but I understand the confusion.

[visionary]

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/30/latest-developments-in-egypt-unrest/?hpt=T1

– [update 3:33 a.m. Cairo, 8:33 p.m. ET] Addressing the situation in Egypt, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Sunday that "we don't want to interfere, but we demand respect for the leaders." He said that he's talked with Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad about the crisis.

Is Chavez pretty much admitting he's a dicatator too, at this point?

Some recent quotes from Mubarak:

– [update 4:45 a.m. Cairo, 9:45 p.m. ET] In remarks to his newly appointed prime minister, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak recognized the "peaceful demonstrations" in recent days as reputable, while adding that some such gatherings had been "infiltrated" by people whose goal was to "spread fear" in society through hooliganism, looting and other criminal activity, according to a transcript read on state-run Nile TV.

The president also charged the new cabinet, to be shaped by newly appointed Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, to restore Egyptians' faith in the economy and relieve people's suffering by helping contain prices for basic commodities and combat high unemployment. Mubarak ordered the new government not to touch government subsidies for key goods.

– [update 4:25 a.m. Cairo, 9:25 p.m. ET] Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak urged leaders of his new government Sunday to engage in dialogue with all political parties to help achieve "a democratic civil society," state-run Nile TV reported. He also called on them to restore people's faith in the Egyptian economy and to control unemployment, according to a readout of remarks the embattled president made to his newly appointed prime minister.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

@twa.....According to wikileaks, we've been supporting the opposition for some time now but I think you're right in that its time to do so publicly.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013003227_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2011013003319

Protesters on Sunday called on the United States to openly embrace their cause, with many saying they believed that Mubarak's ability to stay in office would hinge on whether he continues to enjoy backing from Washington.

"We want to be like America. We want to choose our president," said Mohammed el-Rady, a 32-year-old accountant who works for the government but was nonetheless on the streets protesting against the president. "This movement is not about Islam. It's not about religion. It's about people who have been suffering for 30 years who want democracy."

[visionary]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/30/egypt.us/index.html?hpt=T2

Egyptian disappointment with U.S. likely to increase

(CNN) -- On June 4, 2009, President Barack Obama stood before a large and enthusiastic audience at Cairo University to deliver a much-anticipated speech on mending U.S. relations with the Muslim world.

He was quick to acknowledge "great tension" in that relationship: "I've come here to Cairo to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect."

The president went on to pledge that the detention center at Guantanamo Bay would be closed in 2010, and that the U.S. would oppose further building of settlements by Israel in occupied territories.

Then Obama spoke about democracy. Even mention of the word drew applause. He laid down these principles for those who ruled or aspired to: "You must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party."

More applause -- and then someone in the audience rose and shouted, "Barack Obama, we love you!"

In 2009, after Obama's speech, 27% of the Egyptians polled in the Pew survey had a "favorable view" of the U.S. Not a glowing endorsement, but substantially better than the 21% and 22% measured in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

But in 2010, the numbers were less positive. Pew interviewed 1,000 Egyptians and found that confidence in Obama had fallen to 33%; and just 17% had a favorable view of the U.S.

That sentiment now appears among the protesters on Egyptian streets, even if it is in a minor key compared to the hostility toward President Hosni Mubarak. CNN spoke to one businessman, Walid Mohamed, who had joined the protests in Tahrir Square Sunday.

"We are wishing Obama would have said something more than the U.S. wants reform," Mohamed said. "I would hope they would say they are listening to demands of the Egyptian people and say that Mubarak should address their demands."

Others carried placards denouncing U.S. "hypocrisy." CNN's Nic Robertson reported from Alexandria that demonstrators there wanted the U.S. administration to be much firmer toward Mubarak. "They want the U.S. to side with the people who are demonstrating on the streets ... this is a very strong message we've seen today," he reported. Protesters also claimed that Mubarak had sold out the Palestinians because of Washington's influence.

U.S. diplomatic cables from the last two years -- recently published by WikiLeaks -- may have added to that sense of disillusionment. While they show the U.S. administration has raised human rights issues in private, including torture of prisoners and the detention of bloggers, they also show a wariness about antagonizing Mubarak by airing the issue in public.

One cable ahead of a visit to Egypt by General David Petraeus in 2009 said the United States now avoided "the public confrontations that had become routine over the past several years." Another, from U.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey in 2009 also touched on pressure to improve human rights, saying: "Mubarak takes this issue personally, and it makes him seethe when we raise it, particularly in public."

One Egyptian news editor said that in a society where information was hard to come by, the leaked cables were illuminating; last week some of the newest cables to be released were reportedly being faxed to opposition activists in Cairo.

A year after Obama's speech in Cairo, Mubarak renewed Egypt's emergency laws for a further two years, despite earlier assurances it would be ended. Police have used the laws to jail bloggers, newspaper editors and political opponents. Mohammed ElBaradei, now one of the opposition figures in Egypt, said renewal of the laws would make it impossible for him to stand in the scheduled 2011 presidential election.

[visionary]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/31/egypt.protests/index.html?hpt=T1

Helicopters hover as protesters gather in heart of Cairo

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Helicopters hovered over Cairo's Tahrir Square Monday morning as anti-government demonstrations continued for a seventh day and showed no signs of waning.

At least 1,000 people were gathered in the area, a focal point of the protests that started Tuesday. Some of them said they had spent the night, and the smell of smoke from campfires lingered in the air.

One group held signs as they chanted, "The Egyptian people want the government to fall."

Troops and tanks remained a visible presence on the city's streets. State-run Nile TV reported that police forces were scheduled to start deploying and resume their duties throughout Egypt on Monday.

Police have been virtually absent from the streets since Saturday, after a brutal crackdown a day earlier when thousands of riot and plainclothes police clashed violently with protesters.

As the threat of further unrest loomed, the U.S. planned to begin charter flights to help Americans leave the country Monday.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

I keep seeing blogs talking about how this is going to end as an 1989 moment in one of two ways. Either June 1989 or November 1989. June being the massacre at Tiananmen Square and November being the beautiful moment of the Berlin Wall coming down (and the Czech Velvet Revolution). Either one is going to have HUGE ramifications throughout the Middle East. The former will spawn even more uprisings in other countries (as Tunisia did for Egypt). There are already protests being held in Yemen (yikes) and Syria. (I'm still holding out hope for Iran but I doubt it.) I'm not sure what a Tiananmen Square type crackdown would bring in the region. I can't imagine that would be the end of it.

And I wonder how Israel is feeling about all of this. I know ACW said he emailed his travel guides about the mood of the country. Don't think he ever said what their replies were.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

And I wonder how Israel is feeling about all of this. I know ACW said he emailed his travel guides about the mood of the country. Don't think he ever said what their replies were.

http://www.sify.com/news/israel-fears-egypt-may-fall-into-islamic-fundamentalists-hands-without-fair-polls-news-international-lb5rkcjbifg.html

Israel fears Egypt may fall into Islamic fundamentalists' hands without fair polls

Israel is keeping an eye on the ongoing unrest in Egypt, fearing that the country could fall into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists if fair elections are not held.

The News York Daily News quoted Zvi Mazel, a former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, as saying that the threat of Islamic radicals taking over Egypt could be avoided if President Hosni Mubarak allows free polls.

"If reform is real and elections truly open, people will have no reason to vote for the radicals," Mazel added.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke his silence about the demonstrations in Egypt against the 30-year rule of Mubarak, saying that his country hopes to maintain peaceful relations with Egypt.

"The peace between Israel and Egypt has endured for over three decades, and our goal is to ensure that these relations continue. We are anxiously monitoring what is happening in Egypt and in our region," he said after meeting with his cabinet.

Israel not only shares trade relations with Egypt that amounts to over 500 million dollars a year, but is also reliant on natural gas it gets from Egypt to fill its energy needs. Egypt has also aided Israel in thwarting the shipment of arms to Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.

[JMS]

The new President will be pro-West as well. I dont think you have to worry about Egypt falling under control of the extremists...too many Egyptians are moderates

Nobody can say that. Iran was pro western for 30 years under the shau and look what occured there after the revolution. Under instability of a general failure of governments ability to govern it's really up in the air who will gain control their or what their policies will be. All you know for sure is (1) the United States is closely tied to the exiting regeme. (2) Israel is very unpopular in Egypt with the common man. (3) Dictators and Monarchs across that region have used Israel and her contiuning troubles as a call to nationalism to consolidate their own power for years.

Remember when the October Revolution occured in Russia 1917; Lenin wasn't even in the country. With massive unrest and upheval it all comes down to who is the best organized in picking up the pieces. Pro democratic forces are very rarely the best organized too.

---------- Post added January-31st-2011 at 10:28 AM ----------

I keep seeing blogs talking about how this is going to end as an 1989 moment in one of two ways. Either June 1989 or November 1989. June being the massacre at Tiananmen Square and November being the beautiful moment of the Berlin Wall coming down (and the Czech Velvet Revolution). Either one is going to have HUGE ramifications throughout the Middle East. The former will spawn even more uprisings in other countries (as Tunisia did for Egypt). There are already protests being held in Yemen (yikes) and Syria. (I'm still holding out hope for Iran but I doubt it.) I'm not sure what a Tiananmen Square type crackdown would bring in the region. I can't imagine that would be the end of it.

And I wonder how Israel is feeling about all of this. I know ACW said he emailed his travel guides about the mood of the country. Don't think he ever said what their replies were.

Lebonon's government has already fallen and been replaced by Hezbollah and went from Pro Western to more of a Pro Syria and Iranian government... The world didn't notice because of Tunisia.

Don't forget Jordan who is also experiencing demonstrations now, and Saudi Arabia is feeling the heat too. Although Saudi is pretty hard core about dealing with such activities and any news about them.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/protesters-give-army-deadline-choose-sides

Protesters give army deadline to choose sides

Tahrir Square protesters say they plan to march Friday to the presidential palace in Heliopolis unless the army makes its stance clear.

Youth-led groups issued a statement calling for all Egyptians to march on the palace, the People's Assembly and the television building, in what they are calling the "Friday of Departure."

They say the army must choose which side they are on: That of the people, or the regime.

"We the people and the youth of Egypt demand that our brothers in the national armed forces clearly define their stance by either lining up with the real legitimacy provided by millions of Egyptians on strike on the streets, or standing in the camp of the regime that has killed our people, terrorized them and stole from them," read the statement.

The protesters say the army has until Thursday morning to make its position clear. A lack of response will be interpreted as support for Egypt's ruling regime.

The march will commence after Friday Muslim prayers and Christian services, according to the statement.

Meanwhile, the liberal Democratic Front Party is expected to release a statement later on Monday calling on the military not to take part in cracking down on protesters.

"We believe that the president is trying to involve the army in a confrontation with the people," Ibrahim Nawar, official spokesman for the party, told Al-Masry Al-Youm. "In our statement we will remind the army that it is the shield of the people."

Nawar added that he expects military presence will be beefed up in Cairo and Giza to prevent large numbers of protesters from reaching Tahrir Square, which has become the central gathering area of tens of thousands of protesters for the last six days.

Kill us or join us.

[JMS]

[And I wonder how Israel is feeling about all of this. I know ACW said he emailed his travel guides about the mood of the country. Don't think he ever said what their replies were..

Israel isn't feeling that good right about now. Netanyahu has asked his cabinent not to comment on the "instability"; but rather just repreat the importance of their peace agreement with Egypt. Any instability in their largest and most important arab neighbor has to give them pause.. From their perspective their egyptian relations could get much worse, they fought 4 major wars with Egypt in 25 years, from 1948 -73.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/israel-egypt-mubarak-peace-treaty-fears

Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has reportedly ordered his cabinet to refrain from public comment on the crisis in Egypt.

Egypt protests: Israel fears unrest may threaten peace treaty

Report suggests Tel Aviv want US and EU to curb criticism of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak

Peres: Israel has great respect for Egyptian president

http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=206054

[visionary]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/31/egypt.protests/index.html?hpt=T1

'Million-man' marches planned as thousands ignore curfew in Egypt

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Fed up up with years of corruption, poverty and lack of opportunity, Egyptians plan another huge wave of demonstrations to protest the rule of embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who remains in power despite widespread calls for his ouster.

Activists in Cairo and Alexandria, who robustly took to the streets in peaceful rallies Monday, said they are organizing "million-man" marches in those cities for Tuesday, a week after the historic anti-government protests began.

Egyptian security forces in Cairo have been setting up concrete barriers around key locations ahead of the march, including iconic sites such as Tahrir, or Liberation, Square, the Egypt State TV building, and the Interior Ministry.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/31/egypt-latest-police-apprehend-journalists-escaped-prisoners-arrested/?hpt=T1

–[update 8:32 p.m. Cairo, 1:32 p.m. ET] Opposition movements in Syria are calling for mass protests on Saturday against the rule of President Bashar Al-Assad.

Wah oh.

I don't think Syria is too fond of anti-government protests.

[twa]

May you live in interesting times

http://blogs.forbes.com/gordonchang/2011/01/30/egypt-is-the-next-tunisia-what-is-the-next-egypt/

Is there a connection between the events in North Africa and Asia? Like the Tunisians and Egyptians, the Chinese are losing their fear of dictators. “Many people on the Chinese blogosphere and netizens believe that the future road that China takes is like Tunisia,” remarked Chinese blogger “Twokeqi,” in a session arranged by the American embassy in Beijing. He and other Chinese netizens were peppering two American officials—Jeffrey Bader and Ben Rhodes—who were connected by a video link as they sat in the White House basement. “Does the U.S. government also think so and does the U.S. government have a strategy if this happens?”

Neither Bader nor Rhodes would answer either of Twokeqi’s direct questions. Rhodes, for his part, rambled on about Washington’s human rights policies and Bader talked about the American civil war and slavery in the South, so it is obvious that the pair were afraid of offending Beijing’s officials. Yet China’s citizens—or at least some of them—are not so concerned about the tender feelings of the Communist Party elite.

That’s a dangerous moment for autocrats, even if they dwell thousands of miles from the pyramids. When a people begin to ignore authoritarians, political transformations occur. The Chinese, for instance, don’t take to the streets when they are angry notes New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof. They do so when they think they can get away with it. “China has always operated to some degree on fear, and that fear is now eroding,” he wrote in 2003.

Since 2003, the year after Hu Jintao became China’s supremo, Beijing’s top leaders have done their best to make their political system more repressive, but they are nonetheless losing their ability to intimidate.

[The Brave Little Toaster Oven]

Wah oh.

I don't think Syria is too fond of anti-government protests.

Ah! That's great news! I'd love to be able to travel to Syria. Bring on Democracy!

[Larry]

Wah oh.

I don't think Syria is too fond of anti-government protests.

I think there was another post in this thread, where Syria was encouraging anti-government protests.

In Egypt.

---------- Post added January-31st-2011 at 02:03 PM ----------

Wouldn't it really suck if, all over the world, people decided that they don't like dictators?

----------

Edit: I just had a really dangerous thought, here.

IF the US were to strongly come out, right now, denounce Mubarik as a Dictator, make a stirring speech about noble principals like "deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed", and all liberal elitist and all that . . .

Then are we at a time in history where we can start a chain reaction of anti-Dictatorship-ism? One that might well spread around the world? (Hopefully starting with the Mideast, and spreading from there?)

The protests in different countries seem to be feeding off of each other. Maybe if a few of them are successful, then the reaction would spread.

Are we at a crisis point in history? A place where a bold act could change the world?

[The Brave Little Toaster Oven]

I The protests in different countries seem to be feeding off of each other. Maybe if a few of them are successful, then the reaction would spread.

Are we at a crisis point in history? A place where a bold act could change the world?

That is what I'm hoping for. I was actually having a heated discussion with some of my Pakistani friends that have friends in Pakistan over Facebook about who was next to revolt. They were hoping Pakistan would get on the revolution bandwagon, but they want the US to stay out of everything. That's why I'm not sure what we could do at this point...everyone hates us.

Syria, Iran, and Pakistan would be great places to have revolutions for democracy at this point. We have to walk a fine line not to get too involved in the process though since we piss off everyone.

[twa]

Kinda in the eye of the beholder....one mans call for freedom is anothers call for anarchy

Those in authority are afraid to open Pandora's box

[Larry]

I'm just wondering if maybe we're in a tactical position where we enjoy enormous force multipliers, to use military terminology that I'm probably mis-using.

I'm thinking that if having Mubarik replaced by a liberal, democratically elected, pro-western moderate with a mandate to improve his country's standard of living has the side effect of causing people in, say, Syria and Iran to start thinking that they want a piece of that, then is it worth it?

If it costs us a long-term ally (who we can Golden Parachute) who was going to die soon, anyway, but it gets us more liberal government in Syria and Iran (and maybe cascades from there to other dictatorships), then isn't this deal a real bargain?

[JMS]

I just had a really dangerous thought, here.

IF the US were to strongly come out, right now, denounce Mubarik as a Dictator, make a stirring speech about noble principals like "deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed", and all liberal elitist and all that . . .

Then are we at a time in history where we can start a chain reaction of anti-Dictatorship-ism? One that might well spread around the world? (Hopefully starting with the Mideast, and spreading from there?)

The protests in different countries seem to be feeding off of each other. Maybe if a few of them are successful, then the reaction would spread.

Are we at a crisis point in history? A place where a bold act could change the world?

Perhaps..... Or perhaps we do all that and Mubaric decides to take off the kid gloves and put the cork back into the popular demonstrations like I'mADinnerJacket did last year in Iran. Then we just shot ourselves in the foot and alienated one of our most important allies in the Arab world.

Also you are assuming we want an end to dictatorships. Seems to me we kind of preffer to deal with dictators given our track record in the developing world... Democracies are more stable but they are also less predictable and messier allies... just look at how Turkey treated us during the Iraq war.

[elkabong82]

Are we at a crisis point in history? A place where a bold act could change the world?

I believe we may be fast approaching it. I also think the US staying neutral for now is the best current option because it appears that as these revolts and protests continue that other places around th world are starting to follow suit.

Once serious overthrows begin, however, at that point I believe it would be good for the US to do as you say in order to try and influence democratic regimes to take over because history has shown that the results of an overthrow can wind up being negative. Perhaps encouraging these places to adopt their own Bill of Rights, specifically the 1st and 4th amendments, would be best in providing an influence which aims to ensure these new governments don't adopt the same type of oppression being protested against.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

That's why I'm not sure what we could do at this point...everyone hates us.

I've been thinking about this. I'm sure many in the world hate us. Especially the older generations who lived in the middle of the politics and alliances of the Cold War. But I wonder about the younger generation.

One thing I keep hearing is how people across the world want us to come out strongly in support for their cause. How they're disappointed that we aren't. Perhaps our disapproval numbers across the world are fueled as much by disappointment as they are by hate. Disappointment that we aren't living up to the ideals we profess--not just at home but across the world.

Maybe now is the time to live up to those ideals. For EVERYONE. Maybe this our chance to capture the younger generation and secure a better role for America in the future. This is our chance to grab the world and lead in a new era.

I'm sure there will be some hiccups, some democracies and elections that aren't favorable to us, but isn't there a bigger picture there?

[JMS]

I'm thinking that if having Mubarik replaced by a liberal, democratically elected, pro-western moderate with a mandate to improve his country's standard of living has the side effect of causing people in, say, Syria and Iran to start thinking that they want a piece of that, then is it worth it?

Larry, Problem with that idea is Mubaric is the pro western guy. If we got another ruler even a democratically elected president; it's not very likely hes going to be pro Western. Saddat got murdered for the peace deal he made with Israel. The US has been giving aid to Egypt for 35 years and is tightly associated iwth Mubaric and Israel. It's much more likely any democratic leader would be anti US, anti Israeli, and pro Arab Nationalism...

It's very likely they will fall back into the last Arab nationalistic leader who ruled in Egypt. Nassir who tried to export his plans for Arab unity across the ME. We would have a problem with that. Our allies would have a problem with that.

If it costs us a long-term ally (who we can Golden Parachute) who was going to die soon, anyway, but it gets us more liberal government in Syria and Iran (and maybe cascades from there to other dictatorships), then isn't this deal a real bargain?

Or Syria and Iran call out the club weilding thugs and beat the democracy movement into submission and the folks who get a new government are Jordan, Lebonon, Saudi Arabia, Lybia and Morroco; and in an instant all the pro western regimes in the region turn against us....... Saddly I think hat's much more likely.

Ultimately though it's really not our business. I would hope we sit back and watch and let the people decide. It's better to be friends with democracies than dictators even if it's easier to be friends with dictators.

[The Brave Little Toaster Oven]

I've been thinking about this. I'm sure many in the world hate us. Especially the older generations who lived in the middle of the politics and alliances of the Cold War. But I wonder about the younger generation.

That is the people I've been talking to - the younger generation. They dont hate Americans, they just hate our foreign policy and wish we would stop getting involved in other country's matters. I told them that we can do that, but they'd have to stop accepting our millions and billions of dollars in foreign aid which kinda shut that up :pfft:

Its not just Pakistan either...I was talking to a girl in Egypt and she felt the same way...they dont want us meddling in their problems. We have a very bad image among the younger generation. I find it funny how they want us to get involved though now. Its so completely contradictory...on one hand, they want us to leave them alone, but when they are making a push for democracy, all they want to say is 'where is the US???'