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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The Unseld Jr Era


BRAVEONAWARPATH
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I just can't feel anything about this version of the team.  Not mad about them falling on their faces in the postseason.  Didn't get excited during their run the past two months.  I don't believe in them at all.  Not Beal, not the coaching, not the leadership in the FO, not their philosophy on leadership, not the overall direction.  I was hopeful for a second that they'd accidentally back into a top five pick in a five player class but they messed that up.  This is a doomed team with no realistic avenue to contention.  They don't have the front office to get to where they need to be.  No team built around a guard will ever win a championship without dominant forwards or bigs.

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Unified theory of basketball is that there are three equal parts to the basketball game, but they are not broadly recognized as being equal: offense, defense, and the transition that happens in between offense and defense (mainly rebounding, but also loose balls, etc.).  The best teams are the ones who are dominant in as many of those three phases as possible.  A team with a dominant offense and a crap defense and crap rebounding will lose a playoff series to a team with a mediocre offense but a dominant defense and dominant rebounding.

 

Start with the premise that any NBA team can field a rotation of replacement level players.  What makes a contender is a team being able to get plus value in each of the three phases of the game from their ~8 rotation players.  Realistically, guards will never provide real and major extra value in rebounding and defense.  They can only provide way above delta value in offense.  It's the nature of their size and their position on the court.  The fact is a scrub 6'10 guy will easily outrebound even Russell Westbrook in true contested rebound situations and offer far better rim protection than any guard.

 

Meanwhile dominant bigs and forwards like Giannis and Embiid and LeBron and AD and Durant offer you major plus value in all three phases of the game.  They give so much extra value that they can power contenders in one star constructions where you're not getting major extra value over the position delta in the other seven spots in your rotation.  And when you pair them with a dominant guard to give you all of that extra offense that construction has historically won multiple championships.  Especially the classic center/lead guard construction.  And especially when that center is not only a dominant defender and rebounder but a dominant scorer/playmaker too.  The Wizards will never contend with all of their cap and resources tied up in two guards and then putting a bunch of mediocre or one note forwards and bigs around them.

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I'm not really sure why you're saying "realistically, guards will never provide real and major extra value in...defense." It's certainly tougher with the way defensive rules have changed, but I'm pretty certain Simmons is impacting the game defensively for the 76ers. 

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2 minutes ago, Hersh said:

I'm not really sure why you're saying "realistically, guards will never provide real and major extra value in...defense." It's certainly tougher with the way defensive rules have changed, but I'm pretty certain Simmons is impacting the game defensively for the 76ers. 

 

He's not a real guard.  He's a seven footer who can D up bigs.  He's more like a Magic Johnson or LeBron style ball handling forward except he can't score like them.

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3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He's not a real guard.  He's a seven footer who can D up bigs.  He's more like a Magic Johnson or LeBron style ball handling forward except he can't score like them.

 

I, what, no, I don't and can't. I'm going to bed. 

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5 minutes ago, Hersh said:

I, what, no, I don't and can't. I'm going to bed. 

 

Calling Simmons a PG is like calling LeBron or Luka Doncic a PG.  It's just not accurate.  They're ball-handling forwards who run offense in a way you'd traditionally have a PG do, but they're so much more.  Simmons has even less guard skills than LeBron and Doncic do because he can't hit the broad side of a barn beyond 8 feet or so and he doesn't even generate any gravity at all when spotting up on the perimeter.  He's a power forward with a great handle and a good passing skills whose game is predicated on his unique speed/size combo.

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6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Calling Simmons a PG is like calling LeBron or Luka Doncic a PG.  It's just not accurate.  They're ball-handling forwards who run offense in a way you'd traditionally have a PG do, but they're so much more.  Simmons has even less guard skills than LeBron and Doncic do because he can't hit the broad side of a barn beyond 8 feet or so and he doesn't even generate any gravity at all when spotting up on the perimeter.  He's a power forward with a great handle and a good passing skills whose game is predicated on his unique speed/size combo.

 

It's weird how when one googles the 76ers roster, all these sites list him as with a PG or Guard/Forward. But you are right. In fact, let's commit to writing the NBA so they change their website. Same with ESPN, basketball-reference and the other sites. How dare they list Ben Simmons as a PG or Guard in any way. 

 

Though fewer these days, there are other guards that impact the game defensively too. It's just wrong to use the word never. As the kids say, take your L and let's move on.

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Dominant game by Embiid.  76ers shot more than 50% from three.

 

Understand the frustration of fans... does every team need to go through the "process"?  Will probably compare ourselves to the Rockets in the next 5 years.  But keep i mind Embiid and Simmons were drafted 5 and 7 years ago... and the "process" has been slow developing.  

 

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1 hour ago, Fergasun said:

Dominant game by Embiid.  76ers shot more than 50% from three.

 

Understand the frustration of fans... does every team need to go through the "process"?  Will probably compare ourselves to the Rockets in the next 5 years.  But keep i mind Embiid and Simmons were drafted 5 and 7 years ago... and the "process" has been slow developing.  

 

 

The problem is the Wiz aren't going through a process. Not a win now process nor a long term rebuild process. 

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1 hour ago, Hersh said:

 

The problem is the Wiz aren't going through a process. Not a win now process nor a long term rebuild process. 

So basically in a year or two, Wizards fans will be bemoaning the loss of Beal while watching a "possibly" declining Westbrook.

 

 

Sounds great.

Edited by BRAVEONAWARPATH
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3 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

It's weird how when one googles the 76ers roster, all these sites list him as with a PG or Guard/Forward. But you are right. In fact, let's commit to writing the NBA so they change their website. Same with ESPN, basketball-reference and the other sites. How dare they list Ben Simmons as a PG or Guard in any way. 

 

Though fewer these days, there are other guards that impact the game defensively too. It's just wrong to use the word never. As the kids say, take your L and let's move on.

 

A PG who plays with Seth Curry and Danny Green?  They list Luka as a PG too and people still refer to Magic as a PG.  It's clear those guys are something much more.  We don't really have a position name for them.  They lead the offense and run set and transition plays from a traditional PG spot, but they frequently play with two other guards and can interchange seamlessly with small forwards and power forwards in their lineups, as well as play from the front court when they're off the ball and D up a variety of front court players.  Traditional guards can't do all of that.  I think it also proves my point when the only example of a max contract "guard" who provides huge extra value on defense is a seven footer who plays a hybrid forward role.  All of the other big contract studs in the league who are true guards are 6'6 and below and play in the backcourt or in the corners, and on D they check other back court players or are hidden on weak offensive players.  They don't do any heavy lifting on D and most don't even do their limited role well.  Nor are they big enough or in position enough to get your team to reliably dominate the boards with their rebounding.

4 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

So basically in a year or two, Wizards fans will be bemoaning the loss of Beal while watching a "possibly" declining Westbrook.

 

 

Sounds great.

 

If we trade Beal after spending the last several years begging him to stay and telling him we won't trade him and that we want to build everything around him, that's going to **** up our reputation with players.

 

We backed ourselves into a corner with Beal and gave him too much power over the organization.  We're stuck.

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3 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

It's weird how when one googles the 76ers roster, all these sites list him as with a PG or Guard/Forward. But you are right. In fact, let's commit to writing the NBA so they change their website. Same with ESPN, basketball-reference and the other sites. How dare they list Ben Simmons as a PG or Guard in any way. 

 

Though fewer these days, there are other guards that impact the game defensively too. It's just wrong to use the word never. As the kids say, take your L and let's move on.

Well, fundamentally he’s right.  Simmons does not perform like a pure true PG but technically he is a PG.  Let’s carry on now lol

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

A PG who plays with Seth Curry and Danny Green?  They list Luka as a PG too and people still refer to Magic as a PG.  It's clear those guys are something much more.  We don't really have a position name for them.  They lead the offense and run set and transition plays from a traditional PG spot, but they frequently play with two other guards and can interchange seamlessly with small forwards and power forwards in their lineups, as well as play from the front court when they're off the ball and D up a variety of front court players.  Traditional guards can't do all of that.  I think it also proves my point when the only example of a max contract "guard" who provides huge extra value on defense is a seven footer who plays a hybrid forward role.  All of the other big contract studs in the league who are true guards are 6'6 and below and play in the backcourt or in the corners, and on D they check other back court players or are hidden on weak offensive players.  They don't do any heavy lifting on D and most don't even do their limited role well.  Nor are they big enough or in position enough to get your team to reliably dominate the boards with their rebounding.

 

If we trade Beal after spending the last several years begging him to stay and telling him we won't trade him and that we want to build everything around him, that's going to **** up our reputation with players.

 

We backed ourselves into a corner with Beal and gave him too much power over the organization.  We're stuck.

 

Oh good gracious. You were 100% wrong when you stated "Realistically, guards will never provide real and major extra value in rebounding and defense." It's just not ****ing true and don't add that the max contract stipulation after the fact. A guard that rebounds well provides real value. There are guards in this league that provide real value playing defense. 

 

A guard provides real and major extra value in rebounding and defense when compared to others guards, not compared to PF or Centers. 

 

BTW, are you saying guys like Marcus Smart, Patrick Beverley, Jrue Holiday don't do heavy lifting on D? James Harden has actually played tough D in the post against bigger players. Does that not count?

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume your entire argument has to do with the last 5-10 years or so of the NBA because if you claim Kobe or MJ didn't add real value defensively, I'm going to laugh at you. 

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76ers would run us anyway and same with the Nets,

 

But Beal went into the playoffs hurt and WB is also playing hurt. We obviously have no chance like this.

 

Without a lottery pick or trading Beal our team next year will probably look the same. 

 

I think one problem replacing Brooks is the pool of coaches that actually would want to coach in Washington. Can't be a huge list. 

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41 minutes ago, -JB- said:

Well, fundamentally he’s right.  Simmons does not perform like a pure true PG but technically he is a PG.  Let’s carry on now lol

 

So you are saying he's a PG. Got it. 

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27 minutes ago, Hersh said:

Oh good gracious. You were 100% wrong when you stated "Realistically, guards will never provide real and major extra value in rebounding and defense." It's just not ****ing true and don't add that the max contract stipulation after the fact. A guard that rebounds well provides real value. There are guards in this league that provide real value playing defense. 

 

A guard provides real and major extra value in rebounding and defense when compared to others guards, not compared to PF or Centers. 

 

BTW, are you saying guys like Marcus Smart, Patrick Beverley, Jrue Holiday don't do heavy lifting on D? James Harden has actually played tough D in the post against bigger players. Does that not count?

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume your entire argument has to do with the last 5-10 years or so of the NBA because if you claim Kobe or MJ didn't add real value defensively, I'm going to laugh at you. 

 

I don't think you get the point of this.  The point is to compare the defense and rebounding value of guards to forwards and centers.  The point is to figure out the best way to use your cap dollars and other team building resources to get as much extra value in the three phases of the game as possible.  The conclusion is that you are better off building around centers and forwards and that's been true throughout the history of the league.  The only significant period of deviation from that involved the greatest player in the history of the sport--and he still only won championships when he played with a dominant forward, not to mention they had the best rebounder of his era for the second threepeat.

 

If you build around guards--and by build around I mean put tons of cap dollars into them, yes that factor is absolutely germane--then you are going to have to get lucky and find a dominant forward or center to pair them with or else you are not going to have the defense and rebounding you need to contend.  No true guard can realistically be the foundation player for a good D, the only one who comes close to that value is a 7 foot hybrid forward/guard.  You mention Jrue Holiday, he is the best defender among the true guards in the league right?  The Pelicans weren't any good on D as a team despite him when he was there.  It's the forwards and bigs doing all of the heavy lifting on D, and when they are great defensive players, then you can have a great defense even if you run a Tony Parker or Steph Curry out there at guard.  It does not work the other way.  Guards do not impact anywhere near the volume of defensive sequences or contested rebound situations that front court players do.  But great front court players can impact as many offensive possessions as great guards do.

 

Westbrook and Beal are both true guards, and we've tied our cap to them.  It's a doomed construction.  To breakthrough the ceiling on a two max guard build you have to get lucky and have something like happened with the Warriors happen: they found a DPOY forward in the second round and used an unsmoothed cap jump bring in a max forward to put them over the top.

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Brutal, I watched it, Philly is special, we looked overwhelmed.  How come we were winning so many games but this is a failed construction? Philly is jus deeper then us with a generational center, theres a reason they are the one seed.

 

I'm open to letting Shep and Brooks go, im not convinced with their track record, but I don't believe we are screwed because of resources tied in our backcourt. There are teams in the playoffs that added one coach or one player and became a different team, why not us?

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Everyone knows that every team needs one great non-guard to have a real shot at winning a championship no matter who else they have on the team and there are very few exceptions to building around a balance in order to win. I think we all agree on that. 

 

I've always said roster construction is a huge problem for the Wiz. Don't have to sell me on the Wiz mistake of maxing out guards.

 

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Brutal, I watched it, Philly is special, we looked overwhelmed.  How come we were winning so many games but this is a failed construction? Philly is jus deeper then us with a generational center, theres a reason they are the one seed.

 

I'm open to letting Shep and Brooks go, im not convinced with their track record, but I don't believe we are screwed because of resources tied in our backcourt. There are teams in the playoffs that added one coach or one player and became a different team, why not us?

 

I may be arguing with @stevemcqueen1but he's 100% right about this team being screwed because of resources tied into the backcourt. How can the Wiz realistically had the pieces they would need to fill in around Beal and Westbrook to actually contend. 

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I said all along the Wiz were just Westbrook and Beal. Need a supporting cast.

 

Bertans going ice cold shooting bricks doesn't help. Rui is inconsistent. Okay but not up there with the other 2.

 

they badly need help. Sucks that Deni is out for the year cause he showed promise.

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

I'm open to letting Shep and Brooks go, im not convinced with their track record, but I don't believe we are screwed because of resources tied in our backcourt. There are teams in the playoffs that added one coach or one player and became a different team, why not us?

 

Poor front office work and poor coaching are definitely a problem, but at the end of the day we have player personnel issues too.  Nobody could get this team playing great defense for a whole season and post season.  Basically the only times we were decent on D were when Gafford was playing out of his mind, but he's not the kind of player to sustain that.

 

Being one player away is an issue of construction because we don't have the cap space to bring in that one dominant player.  We've put all our eggs in the basket of Beal and Westbrook in terms of our team-building resources.

 

We need a new front office, and what I think they need to do when they get here is sit down with Beal and Westbrook and tell them despite what the old regime promised them, this isn't going to work and that we're going to have to trade them.

 

Then I think we need to do everything we can to go get that center from USC.  Focus on building around Mobley, Hachimura, and Avdija in the front court, and hopefully get another big scorer in the next few years when we're going to be bad.  Build in a better motion offense where guys like Hachimura and Avdija can thrive as second and third options without having ultra high usage guards dominate everything.

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1.  The team has drafted/traded well of late and is vastly better than it was 2 years ago.

2.  If Rui/Deni/Gaff can make a leap next year, we could top out around a 4 seed.  And we’ll be very entertaining.  So that’s nice.

3.  Heading into 22-23 with Beal and Brook both on max expiring will give us a unique opportunity to reshape the franchise and put a “process” into place.

 

 

4. Or we could end up being the Kings east...IDK.

Edited by TryTheBeal!
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Can someone give me the cliff notes version on the NBA salary cap.  I understand NFL and MLB contracts much better than the NBA.  What is the difference between the soft cap and luxury tax?  Looks like there is between 15-20M between the two.  What is the impact to a team that sits above the soft cap, but below the luxury tax.  Sounds like we will be currently over the soft cap with 8 players signed for 21-22.  Could we still go after a 3 and D guy like Gary Trent II (I know he’s restricted)?  Do we have a mid-level exception, and if so, what type of player could we get?

 

The eight players under contract are who? Westbrook, Beal, Rui, Deni, Gafford, Bertans, who else?  Hutchison? 

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  • BRAVEONAWARPATH changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The Unseld Jr Era

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