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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The JOHN WALL ERA


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The big thing with the Wizards is that the team needs to stop losing. Young players like Wall and Beal who become players on perennial lottery teams have a tendency to become players on perennial lottery teams. This has been the history of the Wizards for all time. The team keeps losing and the young talent develops bad habits. 

 

These two need to become superstars and the best way to do that is to get eviscerated by Lebron and Wade in round one of the playoffs next year. No one improves on a 35 win team. That's where you figure out "Oh....this is how you are supposed to play defense" and "Oh....wow....that's how you get a foul call in the last two minutes" and "Hmmmm....maybe I should have blocked out a little better there."

 

I think the best thing that ever happened to Paul Pierce's career was getting knocked out of the playoffs by Jason Kidd twice. Suddenly jacking shots with Antoine Walker didn't seem like such a great approach to basketball.

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The hate for the trade is mostly centered around the idea that the wizards gave up a lot and got very little back. They risk coming away with nothing after this season from a large expiring deal and a 1st round pick. Its a playoff or bust gamble which makes little sense other than to save the jobs of a Grunfeld and Wittman along with MAYBE attracting a free agent.

There is an argument as to if Gortat is a good fit because his specialty is the PnR and Wall has never shown that he's capable of running that effectively. He didn't with McGee, Nene, or Okafor. This team passes into the post, runs the pick and pop, or drives and kicks out to the three point line. In order for Gortat to get back to his 2011-12 form he needs a PnR partner.

I like the trade for purely selfish reasons, I want to watch these guys win. If I looked at it objectively I'd say it was short sighted and a forced fit that was made only because the team was desperate. I won't look at it that way though because life is short and the guys nickname is the "Polish Hammer", which is great.

 

Gortat is more than just a PnR weapon though.  He's a good defender and rebounder, replicates Okafor in that respect.  He's a well rounded scorer too, potentially makes us better than we would have been with a healthy Okafor.  I think he's a nice fit.

 

I wouldn't stop with trading for him though.  I hope we deal Ariza after Porter gets back.  7.8 million expiring with two other SFs on the roster to plug into that spot is begging for deal.

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The big thing with the Wizards is that the team needs to stop losing. Young players like Wall and Beal who become players on perennial lottery teams have a tendency to become players on perennial lottery teams. This has been the history of the Wizards for all time. The team keeps losing and the young talent develops bad habits. 

 

These two need to become superstars and the best way to do that is to get eviscerated by Lebron and Wade in round one of the playoffs next year. No one improves on a 35 win team. That's where you figure out "Oh....this is how you are supposed to play defense" and "Oh....wow....that's how you get a foul call in the last two minutes" and "Hmmmm....maybe I should have blocked out a little better there."

 

I think the best thing that ever happened to Paul Pierce's career was getting knocked out of the playoffs by Jason Kidd twice. Suddenly jacking shots with Antoine Walker didn't seem like such a great approach to basketball.

 

There is certainly wisdom in this.  Except that you mean getting eviscerated by LeBron and Wade in round TWO of the playoffs.  Look at this line up now versus the other teams in the East.  It's better and more balanced than most.  The East still isn't as strong as the West.  Only two really elite teams in Miami and Chicago and another team that could be elite, but right now is a big question mark in Brooklyn.

 

Most people are talking about fairly flawed and unbalanced teams like New York and Indy as top five locks?

 

How many other teams in the East have a pair of front court guys as good as Nene and Gortat, but ALSO have a pair of guards as good as Wall and Beal?

 

The conference could be totally wide open after Miami and Chicago.

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A star SG I would agree.  But you can still be a star PG without having a three ball.  Look at Rondo and early CP3 and Tony Parker.  To this day, neither Parker nor CP3 are really great 3 point shooters.  It's more of a final option for them.

 

I meant a mid range game, I agree with you, a 3 isn't necessary.  But if nobody respects you from 15-18, you're gonna find it a lot harder to get space for driving to the hoop.

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I think Indy/Brooklyn will have the 3/4 spots on lock....5-8 COULD be a crap shoot, however, I think the Knicks will be in that 5th spot. 

 

Brooklyn looks good based off very early returns.  But let it be said that they do have some sketchy players in big roles like Pierce and Johnson and a pretty bizarre coaching situation.  

 

They're a big team though and KG's teams are hard to count out.  Brook Lopez has gotten really good too.  I think they finish with the three seed and make the East a Big 3.

 

I'm not as confident about Indy.  I like Hibbert, but he hasn't yet proven he's a consistent two way force during the regular season, nor has he proven consistently healthy.  And I just think the team is flawed.  A lot of people cite the Scola acquisition as an important pickup for them, but the fact is Scola just isn't that great any more.  And he doesn't make up for the fact their guards are still pretty lousy.  The thing that could really change this team's ceiling is a great year from Granger.  I feel like he's done, but I wouldn't put money on it.  The team is front court heavy, but they aren't a juggernaut.  They won 49 games last season.  Scoring is an issue for them and I think our starting five is better than theirs.

 

Indy could offer us Hibbert, George, and West for Wall and Beal and I would never take that deal.

 

The Knicks are pretty good and they did win a lot of games last year, but that team feels really combustible.  Bargnani is pretty good but I'm not sure he is a net positive considering that team already kind of sucks at defense and had problems keeping the ball moving well--dangerously reliant on 3 shooting, which can be fickle.  To really improve they needed to get a good, facilitating guard.  Felton is a crap starting PG and JR Smith is unreliable.  I just don't really like them this season.  I think they'll make the playoffs for sure but they're going to need Carmelo to play at a near MVP level again to approach 50 wins and I don't think that's going to happen.

 

I think we win ~ 47 games and that's roughly a five seed.  A key win here or there, a timely trade of Ariza for a useful piece and we're on the cusp of 50 wins.  And that's potentially a three or four seed.  

 

Or yes, a Wall injury and we're talking about a major drop in wins.  But you could go through and do that for every team and their best player and it'd be true.  Is Miami even a playoff team if LeBron has a major injury?

I meant a mid range game, I agree with you, a 3 isn't necessary.  But if nobody respects you from 15-18, you're gonna find it a lot harder to get space for driving to the hoop.

 

Yeah you need to be able to score inside and outside since they set each other up.  You can't be easy to defend.

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If Porter ends up missing more than 1/2 the season, passing on Nerlens Noel will turn out to be a colossal mistake.  Hindsight is 20/20, but Noel is essentially redshirting this year.  With our lack of depth in the front court, he would have been a key cog going forward in the 2014-15 season.  I have high hopes (still) for Porter...but I just can't help to think that the Wizards may have botched the pick. 

 

*When were his hip problems diagnosed?   Was it an on going issue or something that developed in Summer League? 

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Porter's injury supposedly isn't that serious.

 

Nerlens had a torn ACL and also had a growth plate injury as a kid.  His knee might be really janky.  I bet he's not going to play at all this season--his chief appeal to super tanking Philly.

 

We may end up regretting picking Porter.  But I don't think it'll be for Noel.  Five teams passed on Noel.  More likely it'll be for Len or Zeller IMO, though I still don't love Len.  Always thought he had bad hands and questionable instincts.

 

Porter is going to be alright though.  He was the right pick for us.  Like a stretched version of Beal.

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Man, I hope so...Wittman's comments today weren't too encouraging.  Here's the link:

 

Randy Wittman on Otto Porter: 'I don’t know who he is and have not had a chance to coach him yet'

 

 

Randy was really chummy with Porter after the draft.  Seemed genuinely excited to coach Otto and seemed like he really liked Otto on a personal level.  I think he's just frustrated with the injury because he wants to use Otto and is disappointed its taking so long to heal.

 

The NBA season is a marathon though.  Things that seem like a big deal in October and November are completely forgotten by January and February.  A hip flexor injury is annoying a takes time to heal, but it really isn't that serious so long as he gets the proper treatment.  

 

We'll get Otto back eventually and I think we're going to be really happy with him.  He's not like Vesely, coming into the league with no offensive skills on a horrible team.  Otto is coming onto a good team and he's really skilled and cerebral and should hopefully be able to find himself a role this season.  And either way, with Otto, we need to be planning long term.  Hopefully we're talking about ten years of Wall/Beal/Porter teams, not just focusing on what he can do for us tomorrow.

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In thinking about it...how much better would this roster be with Hibbert/George/West?  Factor in NOT having Wall/Beal.  Are we still fighting for the 6, 7, 8 seeds, or will this team be in contention for something higher? 

 

If you consider the trade, I would figure the Gortat trade wouldn't have happened so it's conceivable an okafur/1st round pick would have been used to acquire back court help. Regardless of who that ended up being, the Wiz would have one of the best front courts in the league. Also, depending on the trade, Porter wouldn't have been drafted. I think that team is fighting for the 4 seed cause the Pacers would take a major hit given their roster and I'm not sold on the Knicks for anything.

 

It's not that I don't think Beal won't be really good or that Wall won't be great, but to suggest that one would never make that trade or that no GM would ever make that trade is simply not credible.

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In thinking about it...how much better would this roster be with Hibbert/George/West?  Factor in NOT having Wall/Beal.  Are we still fighting for the 6, 7, 8 seeds, or will this team be in contention for something higher? 

 

The team wouldn't be very good.  It'd be spending 40 million on Nene, Hibbert, and West for the next three seasons.  Then you factor in the five year 16 million per extension headed Paul George's way (unless he makes an All NBA team this season, in which case it will be a Rose rule extension).  Then you've got 3 guaranteed seasons of Webster at 5.8 million.  That's your entire cap and you haven't considered any guards yet.

 

Plus Gortat and Porter would be a waste.  The team would be wholly unbalanced, have their cap tied up for the next three years, and have no realistic avenues of improvement.

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If you consider the trade, I would figure the Gortat trade wouldn't have happened so it's conceivable an okafur/1st round pick would have been used to acquire back court help. Regardless of who that ended up being, the Wiz would have one of the best front courts in the league. Also, depending on the trade, Porter wouldn't have been drafted. I think that team is fighting for the 4 seed cause the Pacers would take a major hit given their roster and I'm not sold on the Knicks for anything.

 

It's not that I don't think Beal won't be really good or that Wall won't be great, but to suggest that one would never make that trade or that no GM would ever make that trade is simply not credible.

 

GMs wouldn't make that deal because Hibbert, George, and West are too expensive and have too little upside compared to Wall and Beal.  Wall is the best player out of the deal and Beal has the upside to be better than Hibbert.  West is a nice player but he'd actually be a net negative in the trade for me because of his age and salary.  Hibbert, George, West is 30 million dollars this year and is going to be at least 40 million dollars in salary each of the two next seasons.  Meanwhile Wall and Beal is 11.8 million this year and only 18.2 and 20.4 million the following seasons.

 

If you want to cut costs by taking West out of the deal and just go George and Hibbert for Wall and Beal straight up, I'd still say no.  Our two best players for their two best players is a no.  Wall and Beal are still significantly cheaper and both have more upside than the Indy guys.  Beal has three years left on his rookie deal and looks like he could be a perennial AS starting this season.

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It's October. Famous for foliage. Halloween. And stevemcqueen talking about the Wizards as a potential three seed.

 

Come back in Febrary. Famous for groundhogs, Valentines, and stevemcqueen talking about taking a stretch 4 with the third overall pick.

 

 

You already made a joke like this a little while ago.  Though this is, admittedly, a tight delivery.

 

Are you even a Wizards fan?  You just like to pop in here from time to time and heckle from the peanut gallery.

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It's October. Famous for foliage. Halloween. And stevemcqueen talking about the Wizards as a potential three seed.

 

Come back in Febrary. Famous for groundhogs, Valentines, and stevemcqueen talking about taking a stretch 4 with the third overall pick.

 

Brooklyn looks good based off very early returns.  But let it be said that they do have some sketchy players in big roles like Pierce and Johnson and a pretty bizarre coaching situation.  

 

They're a big team though and KG's teams are hard to count out.  Brook Lopez has gotten really good too.  I think they finish with the three seed and make the East a Big 3.

 

I'm not as confident about Indy.  I like Hibbert, but he hasn't yet proven he's a consistent two way force during the regular season, nor has he proven consistently healthy.  And I just think the team is flawed.  A lot of people cite the Scola acquisition as an important pickup for them, but the fact is Scola just isn't that great any more.  And he doesn't make up for the fact their guards are still pretty lousy.  The thing that could really change this team's ceiling is a great year from Granger.  I feel like he's done, but I wouldn't put money on it.  The team is front court heavy, but they aren't a juggernaut.  They won 49 games last season.  Scoring is an issue for them and I think our starting five is better than theirs.

 

Indy could offer us Hibbert, George, and West for Wall and Beal and I would never take that deal.

 

The Knicks are pretty good and they did win a lot of games last year, but that team feels really combustible.  Bargnani is pretty good but I'm not sure he is a net positive considering that team already kind of sucks at defense and had problems keeping the ball moving well--dangerously reliant on 3 shooting, which can be fickle.  To really improve they needed to get a good, facilitating guard.  Felton is a crap starting PG and JR Smith is unreliable.  I just don't really like them this season.  I think they'll make the playoffs for sure but they're going to need Carmelo to play at a near MVP level again to approach 50 wins and I don't think that's going to happen.

 

I think we win ~ 47 games and that's roughly a five seed.  A key win here or there, a timely trade of Ariza for a useful piece and we're on the cusp of 50 wins.  And that's potentially a three or four seed.  

 

Or yes, a Wall injury and we're talking about a major drop in wins.  But you could go through and do that for every team and their best player and it'd be true.  Is Miami even a playoff team if LeBron has a major injury?

 

Yeah you need to be able to score inside and outside since they set each other up.  You can't be easy to defend.

 

In the same post you gave the Wizards up to 50 wins and doubted how good Indiana is.  What are you trying to prove? 

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In the same post you gave the Wizards up to 50 wins and doubted how good Indiana is.  What are you trying to prove? 

 

That Indy isn't as good as people are saying and the Wizards are better than people are saying.  Is that not clear in the post?

 

The consensus is that there is a top five in the East and those teams are locked in and qualitatively better than everyone else.  I think it's actually a top two, maybe top three with Brooklyn being #3 if they gel this year.  New York and Indy are a lot more flawed than people are acknowledging.

 

Indy is basically the same team as last year except for the addition of Scola, who I don't view as being that much of a difference maker.   They still have a weak back court and scoring will still be an issue.  It was a 49 win team in a weaker conference last season, be hard to win that many again this season.  Chicago and Detroit are much better than they were last season.

 

Simultaneously, I think the Wizards are one more important acquisition away from having a chance to win 50.  If the team stays as is, I think they win 47 this year.

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  • BRAVEONAWARPATH changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The JOHN WALL ERA

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