The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Destino]

Shepherd is making long term moves.  The wizards need picks and young cheaper players.  He found a 2nd round pick, a promising young player, and some young cheap contract to fill up roster space..... and gave up nothing at all.  It’s not a major deal that changes the team next year, but it represents a definite change in thinking from the front office.

 

Ernie would have traded next years first for a power forward.  You know this is true.

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

he's not the shooter that Portis is 

 

I'd give him a mulligan on last season due to how few minutes he played.  He shot .395 from three in his final two college seasons and made over 100 threes.  There is good reason to predict him to be a strong three ball shooter at the 5 moving forward.

 

What worries me more is the passing and rebounding.  His rebound rate is pretty weak and he was never much of a passer in college, and had more turnovers than assists last season.  Bryant is a better player than him.

[StillUnknown]

there's no downside to the deal from our perspective. acquired a long term asset in the 2nd round pick, and didn't take on any salary that hurts. the more shots you take, the better chances you have at hitting. these are the normative moves of competency and for that, I say thank you Shepp

 

that said, I'm not judging Shepp against the idiocy and incompetence of Grunfeld, that bar is too low and should not be the standard

Edited June 27, 2019 by StillUnknown

[Going Commando]

https://www.thestepien.com/moritz-wagner/

 

There is thestepien's profile on Wagner before last year's draft.  Basically he's a face up big with a three ball who projects as a minus on defense in the NBA.  He's got a good handle for a five and he can shoot with his left hand.  But he has unremarkable length for a seven footer, and his defensive awareness was lacking.

 

I'm worried about how many stretch bigs with questionable defensive ability we're collecting.

[bearrock]

Always in favor of using the owner's money to acquire picks and players.  Nice move by GM, not GM Sheppard

[Llevron]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I'm worried about how many stretch bigs with questionable defensive ability we're collecting.

 

Yea for sure. But our window if we have one as currently constructed is years from now. Maybe one of them can figure it out by then. 

 

Until then try hard. 

[Going Commando]

Here's a nice scouting video of him from his time at Michigan:

 

As you can see there, pretty good offensive skills.  Looks like he can find the corner as the roll man and the pick and pop skills look very good.  That's probably how he'll make his way in the NBA.  Surprising creativity with his handle.  Got a bit of herky jerky in his drive but that ball bounces really high in traffic.  Reminds me a little of watching Kelly Olynyk's slow motion car crash style of driving, where he somehow finds his way to the rim even though you are SURE the ball is going to get picked or he'll commit a charge.

 

The main issues I see are a lack of explosiveness and length.  He runs well enough but I don't see much leaping ability or second bounce.  Probably why he doesn't rebound that well.  A 7' wingspan for a 7 footer is a little disappointing, but 9' on the standing reach is fine.

 

My guess is he's primarily a transition finisher and pick and pop weapon.  Hopefully he gets better on defense and on the boards.

[Going Commando]

8 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Yea for sure. But our window if we have one as currently constructed is years from now. Maybe one of them can figure it out by then. 

 

Until then try hard.  

 

I really hope Robinson and Hachimura figure it out.  If Robinson becomes a good defender then he'd have everything you'd want in a modern five.  Clint Capela with a jump shot.  A championship caliber role player.

 

If Hachimura becomes a good defensive player then he could be a Pascal Siakam type All Star level forward.  He's 6'8 with a 7'2 wingspan, which is a tad smaller than Siakam at 6'9 with a 7'3 wingspan.  He's not the rebounder that Siakam is, but there are many other similarities between them.

[Going Commando]

55 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

there's no downside to the deal from our perspective. acquired a long term asset in the 2nd round pick, and didn't take on any salary that hurts. the more shots you take, the better chances you have at hitting. these are the normative moves of competency and for that, I say thank you Shepp 

 

I agree with you.  Most of these guys we're scooping up probably won't work out, but if like two or three of them turn into good players, then it will be worth it.

 

I like some of the philosophy that these moves reveal.  Valuing second round picks.  Taking chances on rookie draft picks that other teams gave up on really fast.  Focusing on energy and culture.  Focusing on adding dribble--pass--shoot players at all five spots, etc.

 

The one thing that's giving me pause though is the lack of value we seem to be placing on defense and defensive rebounding.  I can see this becoming a systemic issue down the line.

[Burgold]

2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The one thing that's giving me pause though is the lack of value we seem to be placing on defense and defensive rebounding.  I can see this becoming a systemic issue down the line.

I wonder if it's because good defensive players are more valued and can't be gotten on the cheap? Most of these recent acquisitions were gotten for cash which means they were considered expendable assets. It could be that players that show defensive skill can't be gotten that way.

 

Then again, I don't know what I'm talking about.

[Going Commando]

17 minutes ago, Burgold said:

I wonder if it's because good defensive players are more valued and can't be gotten on the cheap? Most of these recent acquisitions were gotten for cash which means they were considered expendable assets. It could be that players that show defensive skill can't be gotten that way. 

  

Then again, I don't know what I'm talking about. 

 

I think it's more about the traits that the team values.  With a cheap, low-value assets you're not really going to get complete players.  They are probably going to bring something to the table, and take something else off.  So if we're placing high value on acquiring dribble--pass--shoot players, even in the front court, then it's unlikely those guys will also be good defenders.  If they were, they'd presumably go really high in the draft and be highly valued assets.

 

But there are the times where teams strike gold with low value assets.  Pascal Siakam was a 27th overall pick, and he can do it all.  But it takes a special personnel guy like Ujiri or RC Buford to find these guys, and it remains to be seen how good Sheppard is.

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Let’s take a long view on the “keep Beal” slant.

 

Take our lumps in 19, get high in the lottery and hit 20 like this...

 

Beal at full Panda in a contract year.

John at say...75-80% of what he was.

Tomas for depth

Say Hibachimura shines, maybe

 

And a vast collection of young, cheap, skilled bigs and wings?

 

Whats the ceiling on that team in the East?  Is that our best path from here?

 

 

Help me out here, Steve!

 

Edited June 27, 2019 by TryTheBeal!

[Llevron]

6 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Let’s take a long view on the “keep Beal” slant.

 

Take our lumps in 19, get high in the lottery and hit 20 like this...

 

Beal at full Panda in a contract year.

John at say...75-80% of what he was.

Tomas for depth

Say Hibachimura shines, maybe

 

And a vast collection of young, cheap, skilled bigs?

 

Whats the ceiling on that team in the East?  Is that our best path from here?

 

 

Help me out here, Steve!

 

 

Depends on what 80% of Wall we get. If he stays ball dominate, lazy on D and loses that speed we are maxing out at the 5. 

[Going Commando]

Just now, TryTheBeal! said:

Let’s take a long view on the “keep Beal” slant.

 

Take our lumps in 19, get high in the lottery and hit 20 like this...

 

Beal at full Panda in a contract year.

John at say...75-80% of what he was.

Tomas for depth

Say Hibachimura shines, maybe

 

And a vast collection of young, cheap, skilled bigs?

 

Whats the ceiling on that team in the East?  Is that our best path from here?

 

 

Help me out here, Steve!

 

 

I don't know what next year's draft class looks like at all.  So I can't really say whether getting a high raft pick will be that valuable, but let's say the pick is a hit at either forward or center, for the sake of discussion.  10 man rotation:

 

1 - Wall

2 - Beal

3 - Brown / draft pick?

4 - Rui

5 - Bryant

6 - Sato

7 - Brown / draft pick?

8 - Schofield

9 - Wagner?

10 - X

 

That seems solid.  The defense likely won't be good enough to be elite though.

 

Milwaukee has Giannis and Philly has Embiid and Simmons though.  Toronto still has Kawhi for now.  Beal is good, but he's not as good as Embiid and certainly not as good as Giannis or Kawhi.  So we wouldn't be able to compete with them on top end talent.  We'd have to try and win via a strength in numbers approach.  This is Milwaukee's ten man group, for contrast:

 

1 - Bledsoe

2 - Brogdon

3 - Middleton

4 - Giannis

5 - Lopez

6 - Hill

7 - Mirotic

8 - Connaughton

9 - Snell

10 - Ilyasova

 

Plus they have DiVincienzo and Sterling Brown in development.  That feels better than what we'd run.

 

So a lot would come down to how good that draft pick is.  If it's a blue chip talent, then yeah, we could get really good.  A lot still depends on what kind of player Wall is when he gets back as well.  If he's still pretty good, but only for 55-60 games a season, then we're going to need to acquire and integrate more good guards.  And he's going to have to become willing to share and move around off the ball in order to keep a consistent offensive system flowing.

 

One thing I do feel good about is finally having a power forward with decent upside.  That's been a real problem for us since we drafted Wall, and it's a shame, because a PG like Wall was made to play with a run and jump athlete at PF.  We got it wrong with Vesely and never really found the right solution after.  We need another good PF in the rotation, but that guy isn't on the team right now.

 

We're in a position to go BPA with our draft pick next season, but the best scenario would be for the guy to be a defensive stud center or especially a stud small forward.  That would really help us balance out the roster the most.

[RonArtest15]

NSFW language, but game recognizes game...check out what Lou Will, who is one of the greatest 6th men in the history of the league, has to say about Jermerrio Jones. 

 

 

[RonArtest15]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

This triggered me.  Sato is such a better player than Parker, it's not close.  He's better at everything than Parker.  I would be furious if we let him walk, and bringing him back should be a no-brainer.  He's a good player who is far above replacement level and Parker is not.

 

You're talking about spending 12 million a year on Parker?  We can get guys like him for vet min deals.  We did it the year before last year with Mike Scott, and did it again last year with Jeff Green.  There is no need to spend money on him.  He is one of the most replaceable player types in the NBA.

 

I 100% believe that Troy Brown can eclipse what Sato brings.  This is part of the reason why I'm OK with him leaving.  Why offer him 8-10 mil per year when you have a guy in Brown who can probably do the same things at a better/cheaper rate? 

 

I'm ok with spending 12 mil on Parker.  Wizards need scoring.  He can carve out a niche as a 6th man.  Dude is a walking bucket.  Sure he has his moments defensively, but he can have a similar impact (scoring-wise) as Lou Will.  Outside of Beal, there isn't anyone else on the roster who can create their own offense or shot.  Parker JUST turned 24 and there is some upside there.  I don't see why he couldn't become a reclamation project in DC off the bench. 

[Mooka]

If we're going to suck next year can we start Devin Robinson and Jordan McRae every game for fun? 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

6 minutes ago, Mooka said:

If we're going to suck next year can we start Devin Robinson and Jordan McRae every game for fun? 

Devin Robinson is no longer with the organization.

[RonArtest15]

 

Wizards will for sure be in that 30-40 win range next year, but there will be some fun prospects to keep an eye on...

[Mooka]

1 hour ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Devin Robinson is no longer with the organization.

 

Aww.... that dude throws down straight redonkulous dunks. 

[Thinking Skins]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think it's more about the traits that the team values.  With a cheap, low-value assets you're not really going to get complete players.  They are probably going to bring something to the table, and take something else off.  So if we're placing high value on acquiring dribble--pass--shoot players, even in the front court, then it's unlikely those guys will also be good defenders.  If they were, they'd presumably go really high in the draft and be highly valued assets.

 

But there are the times where teams strike gold with low value assets.  Pascal Siakam was a 27th overall pick, and he can do it all.  But it takes a special personnel guy like Ujiri or RC Buford to find these guys, and it remains to be seen how good Sheppard is.

 

 

 

I agree with this on theory, but we don't have the capital to be going after the do it all players, so we have to invest in something and hope for improvement. I like this strategy the most because we're a young team with potential. I remember 5 or so years ago I was all about buying 2nd round picks and signing undrafted guys and d league guys. People scoffed because of the risk and low likelihood, but now with Leonard and Green and others recent it seems the whole situation has changed, especially with so many raw players coming into the league. 

[ixcuincle]

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/06/nba-teams-cap-space-free-agents?mi_u=AD2145F1-30C1-4ADB-9AEA-158848EFAC00

 

NBA is a star centric league. You buy some superstars you can change the course of your franchise. 

 

Wizards are ranked LAST in FA appeal. Nobody wants to come here and nobody has wanted to come here for some time now. The Wizards best players didn't even come as FA, they were drafted by the organization. 🤣

 

Not really surprised that no superstar (Durant / etc) really wants to come play here. This organization is in total chaos that makes the Redskins look competent. 

[Llevron]

4 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

The Wizards best players didn't even come as FA, they were drafted by the organization. 🤣 

 

You say that like its a bad thing? 

[ixcuincle]

13 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

You say that like its a bad thing? 

It's not but FA moves are more important and the Wizards are a terrible FA destination 

 

Wizards are the 4th most popular team out of 4 teams here. Redskins, Caps and Nats all have larger and more passionate fanbases. 

[Rocky21]

17 hours ago, No Excuses said:

Blatche would have been such a good NBA player if he wasn't a complete knucklehead. He is now a naturalized citizen of the Philippines, where he absolutely dominates the scrubs in their national league. 😂

 

 

That's our captain!  🙂