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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The JOHN WALL ERA

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I think of the four teams left, there is only one Top 5 pick that is a starter (Durant). Unless I’m missing something.

 

There are other top 5 picks that are backups/contributors (Livingston, Evan Turner, Kanter, Bogut) and a few that are injured (Gasol and Cousins). 

 

Crazy when you think about it. 

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Posted (edited)

the only acceptable outcome for zion staying in school would be declaring again in 2020 and then the wizards pick him and he proceeds to become a 10x all star with dc 

 

otherwise it would be daft to go back to duke just because you don't like to play in NO 

Edited by ixcuincle
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43 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Almost every main contributing player for the Bucks is either a late lottery pick or even drafted in the 2nd round. You can find productive NBA players in every draft range. We've just had a GM who literally bungled every draft or treated it as a means to patching up the roster with vets because he also sucked at signing free agents.

 

great management beats drafting high.  That much is clear.  We had a #1, two #3s, a #5, and a #6 in five straight drafts and we turned that into a team that peaked at 49 wins and a couple of competitive second round losses.

 

Zion wouldn't have saved us.  Hiring a great GM is our only ticket out of the cellar.  And great GMs can make hay in the late lottery.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

great management beats drafting high.  That much is clear.  We had a #1, two #3s, a #5, and a #6 in five straight drafts and we turned that into a team that peaked at 49 wins and a couple of competitive second round losses.

 

Zion wouldn't have saved us.  Hiring a great GM is our only ticket out of the cellar.  And great GMs can make hay in the late lottery.

 

Ernie also had a lot of 1st round mid picks around the time we drafted Wall. These were the Kevin Seraphins and Chris Singletons. All of them busted. Sold a lot of early 2nd rounders for "cash considerations" too.

 

Ernie should have been fired the day we lucked into Wall and the 1st overall pick. He screwed up Wall's prime years in DC.

Edited by No Excuses
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Probably no difference between ANYONE selected between picks 9-20....What I would do is see if there is a team that really wants to move up, trade picks and have them throw in a 2nd rounder.  This squad needs assets in the worst way. 

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2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

great management beats drafting high.  That much is clear.  We had a #1, two #3s, a #5, and a #6 in five straight drafts and we turned that into a team that peaked at 49 wins and a couple of competitive second round losses.

 

Zion wouldn't have saved us.  Hiring a great GM is our only ticket out of the cellar.  And great GMs can make hay in the late lottery.

I kinda agree with this. I have been preaching this for a while. I remember that Jan Vessley draft because I was preaching for Kawhi all offseason. He had his problems (people considered him a 3&D player, some said he shouldn't be a lottery pick, and he was deemed as a better version of Chris Singleton). So when we got Chris Singleton I thought it was the second best get, but I wanted Kawhi and man I think he would have helped. 

 

But you point out a good fact. Al Galdi has been talking about the 20 year history (going down 10 times) and that's depressing. But we've had some good picks and we've found some good players. Heck, look at the Warriors and they've got a lot of out players. Livingston is a baller. I think we need better scouts and more importantly, a GM and front office that listens to the scouts (why does this seem like I'm in a 2005 Redskins draft thread). Word is we wanted Klay Thompson that same year as Kawhi but instead drafted Jan. Klay was the guy that the coaches wanted, but the FO didn't want to overdraft them. 

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It really is a staggering list of **** ups by EG. The Wall super max deal is the exclamation point on the terrible job he did.  

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9 minutes ago, Hersh said:

It really is a staggering list of **** ups by EG. The Wall super max deal is the exclamation point on the terrible job he did.  

 

I don't include the wall supermax in his long list of **** ups. That was more a construct of a flaw in the logic behind supermax contracts. 

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13 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

I don't include the wall supermax in his long list of **** ups. That was more a construct of a flaw in the logic behind supermax contracts.  

 

I'm not sure I'd agree that the idea of the DPVE is flawed.  It's to remove a franchise player's incentive to sign short term deals until he reaches eligibility for the 35% max at the ten year mark of his career.  It gives the player and the team the mutually beneficial opportunity to negotiate a 35% extension two years early.  It gives the player security and the team stability.  Houston, OKC, and Golden State all majorly benefited from their use of the DPVE.  Our failure is entirely because Wall got seriously hurt.  If he had stayed healthy, we would be fine.  But you take a big gamble on a player's health every time you sign them to a long term max contract.  In Wall's case, injuries weren't a prior concern because he'd been on an iron-man streak for four seasons prior to the extension.  In Beal's case, injuries were a major concern.  Lo and behold, Wall gets hurt ten games into the season after he signs his deal and he hasn't been healthy since.  And Beal goes on his own iron man streak to the point where he's led the league in minutes played over the past two seasons by like 300 minutes.

 

Here's the team building logic behind the decisions about signing a franchise player to a DPVE, let's say he qualifies two years before his second contract is up like Wall did:

 

Option 1 - You sign your franchise player to a DPVE

Outcome 1 - He stays healthy and you've got four extra years of team control and thus extend the window of your build by four years

Outcome 2 - He suffers career altering injury and your build fails and you have to start over

 

Option 2 - You decline to sign your franchise player to a DPVE and he hits the open market healthy and will command a max contract

Outcome 1 - You sign him for anywhere between one and five seasons and thus extend the window of your build accordingly.  But his new max will be determined by the size of the cap in a later year and the cap always goes up--you will pay him more.  And you might not get four years from him.

Outcome 2 - He signs with somebody else and your build fails and you have to start over

 

Option 3 - You decline to sign your franchise player to a DPVE and trade him before he hits the open market

Outcome 1 - You make a Kawhi style trade where you put off rebuilding by trying to keep contending with worse players.  Your build eventually fails and you have to start over.

Outcome 2 - You make a Kyrie style trade for young assets, your build has failed and you're trying to speed up the process of starting over.

 

Option 1 is the safest choice if you're trying to contend, as no matter what, the negative outcome for all three choices is the same--failing and starting over.  Option 2 isn't worth the risk at all because the only possible benefit from doing it instead of option 1 is maybe getting one extra year of team control (at a higher cost).  If your player has turned down your DPVE offer, that means he's going to walk.  If your player wants the DPVE and is eligible for it and you decline to make the offer, then he's going to be pissed about your lack of willingness to commit to him.  It'd poison the negotiation.

 

Option 3 is only the desirable path if you're already committing to a rebuild.  But if you're seven years in to an All NBA player's career and he wants to spend the rest of his prime years with you, why on Earth would any GM choose to rebuild from scratch instead?  To maybe get someone who might be as good as the guy you already have five years from now?  Option 3 really only makes sense if your players has let you know he wants out, as was the case with Kyrie and Kawhi.  And even still, the outcomes can be really poor.  You might end up with just Collin Sexton and Ante Zizic for your trouble.

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Oh yeah, forgot to mention option 4: you decline to offer your player the DPVE and he suffers a career altering injury before he hits the open market.

Outcome 1 - your build has failed and you have to start over.

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@stevemcqueen1 my biggest beef with the supermax contract is the qualifications. I dont think a player making 3rd team all-nba at the right time should necessarily be eligible for that big a jump. It also raises an issue of conflict of interest when sports writers are voting for the all-nba teams.

 

I love kemba walker, but Charlotte is in an impossible position. Pay him almost 200mil that he's not worth or start the whole process over again.

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I fault Ernie for just about everything...offering Wall the supermax, which he earned under the guidelines of the CBA, isn't one of them. 

 

Also, I'm not that worried about Wall's effectiveness when he returns.  His athleticism is going to take a hit, but he's not going to lose his ability to pass the rock.  Slowing the game down might be a good thing for him as he approaches 30 years old.  There are numerous guys who played the point who had to remake their games once they hit a certain age.  I have no reason to think that Wall won't do the same.  He should EASILY average close to 10 assists per night and the scoring should be between 15-18ppg. 

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9 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

@stevemcqueen1 my biggest beef with the supermax contract is the qualifications. I dont think a player making 3rd team all-nba at the right time should necessarily be eligible for that big a jump. It also raises an issue of conflict of interest when sports writers are voting for the all-nba teams.

  

I love kemba walker, but Charlotte is in an impossible position. Pay him almost 200mil that he's not worth or start the whole process over again. 

 

You're right about that.  They need to make eligibility for the contract more restrictive.  But it's hard to take something away from the players when they've already gotten it.

 

Yet another argument for doing away with max contracts and going to a hard cap.

5 minutes ago, RonArtest15 said:

I fault Ernie for just about everything...offering Wall the supermax, which he earned under the guidelines of the CBA, isn't one of them. 

 

Also, I'm not that worried about Wall's effectiveness when he returns.  His athleticism is going to take a hit, but he's not going to lose his ability to pass the rock.  Slowing the game down might be a good thing for him as he approaches 30 years old.  There are numerous guys who played the point who had to remake their games once they hit a certain age.  I have no reason to think that Wall won't do the same.  He should EASILY average close to 10 assists per night and the scoring should be between 15-18ppg.  

 

I think he can be effective when he plays.  But this is the kind of injury that limits a guy to 50-60 games a season even when everything is mostly going right for him.

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You're right about that.  They need to make eligibility for the contract more restrictive.  But it's hard to take something away from the players when they've already gotten it.

 

Yet another argument for doing away with max contracts and going to a hard cap.

 

I think he can be effective when he plays.  But this is the kind of injury that limits a guy to 50-60 games a season even when everything is mostly going right for him.

I'd also like to think that the constant advancements made in the medical field can HOPEFULLY have him playing 70+ games for a good stretch when he returns from injury. 

 

Honestly, for a PG who had injury woes and redfined their games, Jason Kidd should be a guy Wall consults with and tries to model his game after going forward. 

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10 hours ago, CRobi21 said:

 

Thanks for the link.  It says Connelly will NOT interview for the position.  There was also this.

 

"It has been reported Connelly makes $2 million a year, well below the going rate for a quality president of basketball operations. Washington owner Ted Leonsis could likely double that salary (and still not be paying more than he did for Grunfeld)." 

 

So not only did Grunfeld suck ass, the Wiz were also paying him a King's ransom to suck ass.     

 

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Oh my God.  My mouth literally dropped open as I read that Ernie made more than 4 million a year.  All this time I just assumed he kept the job because he worked dirt cheap.

 

PLEASE let me have this job Ted.  I will work for just two million a year and I promise you I will get two draft picks right every five years instead of one.

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Even if he’s hired, fans need be prepared for a long rebuilding process. 

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Stop playing games, man, give him what he wants, we need him more then he needs us.

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