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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The Beal Era


BRAVEONAWARPATH
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Based on what Shep said:

 

a) Shep is not a good GM. 

and

b) Brooks is not coming back unless Shep is a liar. Which is possible cause see a. 

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Realistically would brooks even get a job elsewhere?

 

it kind of seems like his time here sort of makes it obvious he was the problem with the thunder too

 

what is it, between both orgs, that would convince someone to take a shot at him ?

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

They just made the playoffs. 

 

Add pieces to Beal and Westbrook. 

 

As an under .500 team. Adding pieces gets you what, slightly over .500?  Their cap makes it difficult to add any pieces of consequence.  They have to scavenge cheap and available to fill out the depth.

Edited by justice98
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Can someone cite recent examples of trading away a player of Beal’s talent level and then rebuilding their team into a contender?  Honest question, I’ve paid more attention since the bubble, but didn’t pay much attention to the league in years prior.  Celtics, I guess, but not sure I’d label them a contender.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Can someone cite recent examples of trading away a player of Beal’s talent level and then rebuilding their team into a contender?  Honest question, I’ve paid more attention since the bubble, but didn’t pay much attention to the league in years prior.  Celtics, I guess, but not sure I’d label them a contender.

 

Holiday wasn't as good as Beal is, but the process in Philly started with trading Holliday, and they also then traded Thad Young (who at the time was a 6-7 WS player, which is similar to Beal.)

 

The flip side of that is going from a capped out sub-500 team to a contender in a place like DC is essentially unprecedented.

 

(Without trading Beal, their only real hope to get better is to pay somebody to take Westbrook's contract and find somebody that is willing to force their current situation to Washington in a sign and trade or flip Westbrook and something of value for somebody else (which means somebody would want to come to DC and force themselves out of their current team).  And unlike NY, LA and Miami, Washington isn't a place that people have a history of wanting to play.  If the Clips are eliminated, it is unlikely that Leonard would push his way out of LA to come to Washington to play with Beal.  And I'm not even sure adding Leonard and subtracting what it would take to get him really makes the Wizards are contender.)

Edited by PeterMP
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27 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Can someone cite recent examples of trading away a player of Beal’s talent level and then rebuilding their team into a contender?  Honest question, I’ve paid more attention since the bubble, but didn’t pay much attention to the league in years prior.  Celtics, I guess, but not sure I’d label them a contender.

 

Well, we shall see if New Orleans can do it. Same with OKC. Philly kept flipping players for 1sts during the process. Same with the Celtics and they did end up in the conference finals so they were contenders. The Knicks have extra picks coming up from Dallas for Porzingis. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, tshile said:

what is it, between both orgs, that would convince someone to take a shot at him ?

 

I think the star-power these days trumps anytype of strategic team building.

 

Star players want to play under Brooks because he will showcase them.

 

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31 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

Well, we shall see if New Orleans can do it. Same with OKC. Philly kept flipping players for 1sts during the process. Same with the Celtics and they did end up in the conference finals so they were contenders. The Knicks have extra picks coming up from Dallas for Porzingis. 

 

 

So one contender, one on the verge of a conference finals (though the Hawks aren’t going to be pushovers), a team that hasn’t made the playoffs yet and one of the acquired assets is likely hitting FA, and one that just begun their rebuild.

 

Celtics did great by hitting on Tatum and Brown, but would you say that they have one of the best five outlooks going forward in the East?  I’d say Phi, Brooklyn, Mil, Mia, and Atl have better outlooks and perhaps Indiana too.

 

Philadelphia is in like year nine of “Trust the Process” and they still haven’t hit the conference finals.  If you were the owner of OKC, how many years would you give this experiment?  

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1 hour ago, ixcuincle said:

They just made the playoffs. 

 

Add pieces to Beal and Westbrook. 

with what cap room?

 

The whole NBA salary structure is a mess. If you trade your top talent for picks, that's a huge gamble too because how young so many of these guys are. The formula is to have cap room and some star deciding that's where they want to get together with their pals for a super team. If you aren't that, might as well be the Pistons or Rockets and hope you hit on a guy who brings in others.

 

This franchise is built with a ceiling of 6th-8th seed tops with early exits.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, @SkinsGoldPants said:

with what cap room?

 

The whole NBA salary structure is a mess. If you trade your top talent for picks, that's a huge gamble too because how young so many of these guys are. The formula is to have cap room and some star deciding that's where they want to get together with their pals for a super team. If you aren't that, might as well be the Pistons or Rockets and hope you hit on a guy who brings in others.

 

This franchise is built with a ceiling of 6th-8th seed tops with early exits.


and by the time Westbrook comes off the books, Thomas Bryant, Gafford, Rui and Deni will all have been or need to be signed if they are any good. Thats one of the problems with Westbrook. He’s gonna be 34 at the end the contract and he’s not someone that you want to extend so bird rights are meaningless. 

Edited by Hersh
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1 minute ago, Hersh said:


and by the time Westbrook comes off the books, Thomas Bryant, Gafford, Rui and Deni will all have been or need to be signed if they are any good. Thats one of the problems with Westbrook. He’s gonna be 34 at the end the contract and he’s not someone that you want to extend so bird rights are meaningless. 

 

Well, there you go. Probably can't move him either without taking on another contract you don't want.

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Guaranteed contracts ****s every teams contract situation.  Teams can’t cut under performing players.  
 

They should let teams cut players, get the salary off their books, but still pay the full value of the contract unless another team signs them for equal or more.  It would create an accounting nightmare but it would at least allow teams to adjust their rosters when it makes sense to do so.  Too many teams are stuck otherwise.  The goal of the tax is to stop teams from stacking free agent talent, not trap them forever because they signed a guy that got injured.  
 

Also, if I had o bet I’d say Brooks is given an extension.  A new GM would need big brass balls to go against the wishes of his two stars on something like this.  If he renews Brooks and they suck (which they will) and Brad leaves, he might save his own job.  If he hires a new coach, it goes poorly, and Brad leaves.. Shep is out too for sure.  

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23 minutes ago, CRobi21 said:

 

 

This is why this season was an unmitigated disaster.  This is a five All Star class.  They needed to tank, and if they had done so properly, you're guaranteed a top four pick and one of those special five prospects.  It was the best possible year to tank.

 

A good GM would have traded Beal and come away from this draft with two top five picks.  Instead we got a rag tag March run and a gentleman's sweep in the first round delivered by a younger team, and now have absolutely no hope for the future.  Shepherd sucks.

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40 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

This is why this season was an unmitigated disaster.  This is a five All Star class.  They needed to tank, and if they had done so properly, you're guaranteed a top four pick and one of those special five prospects.  It was the best possible year to tank.

 

A good GM would have traded Beal and come away from this draft with two top five picks.  Instead we got a rag tag March run and a gentleman's sweep in the first round delivered by a younger team, and now have absolutely no hope for the future.  Shepherd sucks.

What other bottom five team would have traded for Beal?  And, if they did get him, would they still be a bottom five team? I’m trying to see how we’d get two top five picks.  (My understanding is that GS’s Minnesota pick is top 3 protected, could be wrong on that.). Golden State would have been the only possibility that I could see.

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21 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

What other bottom five team would have traded for Beal?  And, if they did get him, would they still be a bottom five team? I’m trying to see how we’d get two top five picks.  (My understanding is that GS’s Minnesota pick is top 3 protected, could be wrong on that.). Golden State would have been the only possibility that I could see.

 

You would trade him to a contender for multiple future 1st rounders.  Also picks gradually lose protection over time (Min pick to GSW for example is top 3 protected in 2021, no protection in 2022).

 

Is trading Beal a guaranteed path to contention?  No, it most definitely is not.  But holding on to Beal and Westbrook is extremely unlikely to result in contention, I would say much less likely.  Wiz can't attract nor sign a superstar (their only potential path would be a one year rental of a forced hand situation ala Kwahi).  It appears that the third star is not currently on the roster.  The chances of drafting a superstar in the next few drafts and have that superstar develop quickly enough into a difference maker before Westbrook ages out is just so so low.

 

So as things stand, short of DC all the sudden turning into a destination city or some group of superstars deciding to annoint DC as their chosen place to get together, Wizards' most realistic (albeit still very remote) chance to contend is to follow the Bucks or GSW path.  Draft a transcendent player who wants to stay at the place he was drafted ala Giannis or draft three superstars in short succession (one of which is also a transcendent player like Curry).  Best way to do that is through the draft and more picks you have, better your chances of striking gold.

 

Beal could've been a legit 2 on a contender.  He's not a one and the rest of the roster is nowhere near contention level and has no viable path to acquire the most difficult contention piece (legit candidate for the best player in the NBA) before Westbrook ages out.  So Ted has to either choose to reset or ride this team to perennial fringe playoff until Beal ages out or leaves.

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34 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

You would trade him to a contender for multiple future 1st rounders.  Also picks gradually lose protection over time (Min pick to GSW for example is top 3 protected in 2021, no protection in 2022).

 

Is trading Beal a guaranteed path to contention?  No, it most definitely is not.  But holding on to Beal and Westbrook is extremely unlikely to result in contention, I would say much less likely.  Wiz can't attract nor sign a superstar (their only potential path would be a one year rental of a forced hand situation ala Kwahi).  It appears that the third star is not currently on the roster.  The chances of drafting a superstar in the next few drafts and have that superstar develop quickly enough into a difference maker before Westbrook ages out is just so so low.

 

So as things stand, short of DC all the sudden turning into a destination city or some group of superstars deciding to annoint DC as their chosen place to get together, Wizards' most realistic (albeit still very remote) chance to contend is to follow the Bucks or GSW path.  Draft a transcendent player who wants to stay at the place he was drafted ala Giannis or draft three superstars in short succession (one of which is also a transcendent player like Curry).  Best way to do that is through the draft and more picks you have, better your chances of striking gold.

 

Beal could've been a legit 2 on a contender.  He's not a one and the rest of the roster is nowhere near contention level and has no viable path to acquire the most difficult contention piece (legit candidate for the best player in the NBA) before Westbrook ages out.  So Ted has to either choose to reset or ride this team to perennial fringe playoff until Beal ages out or leaves.

I hear you, but what I was responding to is the statement that they should have moved Beal and end up with two top 5 picks in this draft.  I don’t see how that could have been possible with the exception of GS.  And we don’t know if they wanted Beal or were willing to give up the Min pick.

 

To your point about Giannis and Curry, it seems like the chances of getting a late or non-lottery star  happens more often successfully than trading talent and tanking. (Giannis, Leonard, Mitchell, Jokic).  
 

I don’t disagree that they are in a really tough spot.  And I’m not against trading Beal and Westbrook.  I just question/pushback when someone says trade Beal and end up with two top five picks.  It’s not that straightforward.

 

Some fans are okay with Philadelphia/OKC approach and some fans don’t want to tank that hard even though breaking out of the bottom playoff seeds is an uphill climb.  Neither fan type is wrong.

Building around Wall and Beal wasn’t wrong, IMO, it was the poor supplemental moves that hurt this team.  Like extending Porter, going nuts on Mahimi, and likely the desperation of retaining Bertans.  
 

It’d be nice if Rui and/or Deni could really blossom here.

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I don't like the idea of dealing Beal. He still has a LOT of years left. We could have easily just "shut him down" and still tanked. I would have liked pairing Beal with one of the top 5 perennial all-star picks this year's class is supposed to have(always say that with a grain of salt though). Trading Beal is bad because you will NOT get good value for him. Teams never do when they trade away superstars.

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