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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The BEAL & BRODIE ERA


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How many wins do you see now that the first two months are over?

I'm assuming our health will be about like it has the first two months: stretches of missed games from Beal and Nene throughout the year and some injuries to guys on the bench here and there.

I still see 47 wins. I think we can realistically expect 45 as something of a floor. Unless Wall gets hurt. If that happens we're through.

I'll still keep it close to the vest and say 39 to 43 as long as we remain healthy and Randy ever figures out a solid rotation.

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Seraphin does it all the time as well. Its like they take that extra dribble to think about what they're going to do. Either coaches haven't let them know about it or they just don't listen.

 

It happens with a lot of players at every level.  Rudy Gay is the king of the useless extra dribble.  He'll have a wide open 19 foot shot but he'll dribble one more time towards his defender and take a contested 16 foot shot.  I imagine a bad father/coach screaming "don't settle" at them every time they took a wide open shot insisting that they try to get closer to the rim on every attempt.  

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What young big giving them 14 and 10 does Miami have? Indy? OKC? San Antonio?

What you need to contend is a superstar and a good supporting cast. If Wall and Beal reach their potential we'll have two superstars.

2 things, I was thinking long term contention, not this season. This season, we are absolutely NOT contenders. We could scare teams, but the Wizards are not title contenders. You need to settle down.

Secondly, Miami has the best player on planet Earth, the Wizards do not. The Thunder have the 2nd best player and another top 10 player, the Wizards do not. The Pacers have a top 10 player and a big man who will end up DPOY and a good coach, the Wizards do not. The Spurs have a HOF coach, a top 10 player in his prime in Parker, the Honorable Tim Duncan who still gives 17 and 12 per 36 minutes, and a great system.... the Wizards do not.

The Wizards have not even gotten above .500 this season, and you are talking about title contention. This Wizards team is not a title contender, and with this current group will never be a title contender. Settle down.

And if Wall and Beal become superstars, then what we will have is a team that has a superstar backcourt with old bigs. We need more. We not there yet.

This is such a fun team to watch.  These guys really do play for one another.  We have something nice building here....

 

*Good contributions from the bench...

they have been one of the funnest teams to watch since Wall came back. I really enjoy watching them play, even in close games. Edited by JoeWolf990
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Yeah Booker hesitates on his jumpers and lets the D close out before he has to force a shot or pass and the offense has to start over trying to find a shot for someone.

But he gets himself good looks at the rim or a foul with his footwork and his fakes and dribbles. I don't usually have a problem with what he does when he catches the ball near the basket.

Ariza can hesitate to release his shot from time to time too. He and Booker aren't the most instinctive scorers.

What I like about Beal and Webster is they almost never get caught off guard when they catch a pass. Those guys search for shots and read the defense.

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Making the playoffs, and hopefully being over .500 will be a HUGE step in the right direction.  IF we finish with a top-4 seeding, there should be the expectation that we win whatever series that we're in.  It's just the nature of the East.  That being said, I agree w/ Joe Wolf.  This team isn't anywhere close to being title contenders.  Too many questions with the bench and with the front court.  We need a younger, dominant player somewhere between positions 3-5 to really make that leap to the elite.  I would prefer a that player to be either a PF or C.  Not saying Greg Monroe is that guy (yet), but I really do think he'll be a Wizard next year....assuming he doesn't get traded elsewhere and sign an extension. 

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It happens with a lot of players at every level.  Rudy Gay is the king of the useless extra dribble.  He'll have a wide open 19 foot shot but he'll dribble one more time towards his defender and take a contested 16 foot shot.  I imagine a bad father/coach screaming "don't settle" at them every time they took a wide open shot insisting that they try to get closer to the rim on every attempt.

Nick Young and Jordan Crawford were terrible at this too. I wonder how many John Wall assists those idiots dribbled out of. The masters of the catch and one or two dribble brick.

This is why I always roll my eyes when stat nerds look up from their computer screens, push their hipster glasses up on the bridge of their noses, and confidently proclaim cliches like "the long 2 is the worst shot in basketball." It's totally generalized, de-contextualized useless information.

Determining the best and worst shot decision always depends on the situation at hand. Catching and shooting an open 19 footer is a good shot. Catching the ball open at 19 feet and dribbling into the defense to shoot a contested shot is a worse shot. Coming off a ball screen and draining a 17 footer from the elbow after you've separated from the D is a good shot. Coming off a ball screen and allowing the defender to recover or the help to rotate by not taking the open shot when it was there is a worse decision. Catching the ball behind the three point line and giving a fake on a defender closing out hard then taking a dribble inside the 3 point line to shoot an open long 2 is a good shot. Catching and just shooting the contested three on a defender closing out hard is a worse shot.

I'll see fans say stupid things like, "he just needs to take all of those long twos out of his shot chart." Seems pretty obvious and intuitive to me that taking a whole, very large part of the floor out of your arsenal generally makes you a less useful player. I know you get that, because I remember you being bothered by John's decision to stop shooting threes his second year.

Nerd vetted shooting efficiency can still come from playing poor or low value situational basketball. I see stat nerds getting wrapped up in an array of scoring efficiency numbers that cause them to overrate the offensive ability and value of role players all the time.

You didn't bring any of that up, I've just had that rant in me for a while. You wouldn't believe how often it comes up on RealGM. In this thread, all of us take it for granted that basketball numbers are pretty crappy for depicting what happens on the court. I take that as a self evident truth. Not so on RealGM.

The supreme confidence in their patently ridiculous claims is what kills me. It's like, "umm, are you really trying to argue that Omer Asik is one of the best bigs in the NBA? Are you seriously arguing we should trade the #3 overall pick for Ersan Ilyasova? ... When's the last time you've actually seen a basketball game again?"

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2 things, I was thinking long term contention, not this season. This season, we are absolutely NOT contenders. We could scare teams, but the Wizards are not title contenders. You need to settle down.

Secondly, Miami has the best player on planet Earth, the Wizards do not. The Thunder have the 2nd best player and another top 10 player, the Wizards do not. The Pacers have a top 10 player and a big man who will end up DPOY and a good coach, the Wizards do not. The Spurs have a HOF coach, a top 10 player in his prime in Parker, the Honorable Tim Duncan who still gives 17 and 12 per 36 minutes, and a great system.... the Wizards do not.

The Wizards have not even gotten above .500 this season, and you are talking about title contention. This Wizards team is not a title contender, and with this current group will never be a title contender. Settle down.

Whose getting worked up? I thought it was pretty obvious from my posts I'm not expecting Wall and Beal to be superstars this year, nor that I'm expecting the team to legitimately contend. I'm talking long term when I say that, if Wall and Beal reach their potential, we'll have two superstars and be a contender. Wall is 23 and Beal is 20. They're clearly still years away from reaching their peak. What I'm hoping for is home court first round series we can win and a pesky second round match up for Miami or Indy.

My point was that hinging whether or not we'll eventually be a contender on having a young big man that can give you at least 14 and 10 is silly. The four best teams in the league today don't have that kind of player, so you clearly don't have to build a team around that kind of player to be a contender. And having one doesn't guarantee you're a contender either. Minnesota, New Orleans, and Detroit DO have guys who give them at least that, if not way more, and none of them are contenders.

WE will never need a young high caliber big just to contend because we're built around Wall and Beal. Miami and OKC have never and will never need one because they've got some of the best players in the league at perimeter positions and good role players supporting them. What we need is John and Beal to become among the best players at the league at their positions and worthy role players. This is something we can do, because both John and Beal have the ability to be THE best guy at their position at their peak. John's already made huge strides this season. Nene and Gortat won't be around when John and Beal peak. That's talking over half a decade from now. That's an eternity in front office years, we'll have opportunities to replace those guys along the way.

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Agreed SM. In my thinking the wide open spot up, from anywhere reasonable, is almost always a good shot if the following us true: shot clock is under 10 seconds, the player is a good enough shooter from that range, there is not an immediately available passing option near the rim. There are exceptions but that generally holds true. Trying to get closer to the rim and giving up a shot where no defender is in position to contest it for a better shot rarely works out positively for the offense.

The nerds are right that a long range 2 is statistically a bad shot. That doesn't mean that it can't be a weapon in situations or that attempting it doesn't serve a purpose. If defenders figure out a shot a player want to avoid they have a huge advantage. A major reason John Wall has improved is because defenders can't simply sit back and dare him to shoot. They have to stay closer now and he has a much easier time getting around them or getting them to bite on a fake (an aspect Wall doesn't use enough).

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Making the playoffs, and hopefully being over .500 will be a HUGE step in the right direction. IF we finish with a top-4 seeding, there should be the expectation that we win whatever series that we're in. It's just the nature of the East. That being said, I agree w/ Joe Wolf. This team isn't anywhere close to being title contenders. Too many questions with the bench and with the front court. We need a younger, dominant player somewhere between positions 3-5 to really make that leap to the elite. I would prefer a that player to be either a PF or C. Not saying Greg Monroe is that guy (yet), but I really do think he'll be a Wizard next year....assuming he doesn't get traded elsewhere and sign an extension.

I don't think we need to be too young. Bosh for instance isn't young but add him and keep Nene or Gortat (preferably Gortat on a cheaper deal) and this team is instantly relevant. Beal is going to be MUCH better as time increases his scoring efficiency, which isn't great. Wall took a year off trying to shoot the ball so he's really just now polishing that aspect of his game. Webster can flat out shoot the three ball. Add a superstar level scoring threat that can move around the court and create mismatches like Bosh? Instant good team.

Not a title team, not without a bench and much improved play from Wall and Beal, but a legit good team.

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Found this on another site: Puts Wall's impact in perspective.

 

John Wall is 3rd in the league in on/off differential at +25.5. The only players ahead of him are Kevin Love (+26.8) and Paul George (+26.1). Nobody else is close.

 

Iguodala and Hibbert are at +17. Curry is at +15. Kyrie Irving is at -0.3.

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Found this on another site: Puts Wall's impact in perspective.

 

John Wall is 3rd in the league in on/off differential at +25.5. The only players ahead of him are Kevin Love (+26.8) and Paul George (+26.1). Nobody else is close.

 

Iguodala and Hibbert are at +17. Curry is at +15. Kyrie Irving is at -0.3.

That's pretty dang cool, but it also points to the fact that our back up PG situation is dangerously bad.

Another stat I saw someone post on RealGM was that John was third in the NBA in points produced per game. That stat is: assisted points per game + points per game.

1.) CP3 - 25.5 assisted + 19.9 = 45.9 total

2.) Curry - 21.6 assisted + 23.0 = 44.6

3.) Wall - 22.0 assisted + 19.9 = 41.9

4.) LeBron - 15.6 assisted + 25.4 = 41.0

This is what the poster wrote for other high scoring players:

Durant: 39.5 combined points

Harden: 36.9

Kyrie I: 36.5

Kev Love: 36.0

John is probably creating as many three point opportunities for teammates as anyone in the league. As the poster on RealGM noted, that stat is neat because it demonstrates how incredibly valuable a top notch passing and scoring PG is for a team's offense.

Imagine if we had Kevin Love or Kevin Durant too. We'd easily have the best offense in the NBA. Easily.

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  • BRAVEONAWARPATH changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The JOHN WALL ERA
  • Destino changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The BEAL & BRODIE ERA

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