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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The BEAL & BRODIE ERA


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Rudy Gay is a legitimate 20ppg scorer and can be the second best player on a championship team. You put Gay with Wall and he might even be able to score 25 per game. We need a scorer badly. I'd definitely trade a draft pick that might land you a franchise player for an already established franchise player.

Gay isn't a franchise player though, not really even close. He's a good scorer and fringe All Star depending on the years of the guys in front of him. Gay gets paid like a franchise player but isn't one. He's only broken the 20 PPG mark once in his career and his career high for PER is 17.8. His career average PER is 16.0 and he's in his sixth season. He is what he is by now.

A franchise player would average at least 20 PER for his career and have years where he goes north of 22, especially as a wing. By contrast:

-- Carmelo averages 20 PER for his career and has had several 22 PER seasons.

-- Dwayne Wade averages 25 PER for his career and has had a few 28+ PER seasons.

-- LeBron averages 27 for his career and went for a ridiculous 35 PER last season.

-- Kobe Bryant averages 23 for his career and has had several 26+ seasons.

-- Manu Ginobili is at 21.8 PER for his career and has a pair of 24 PER seasons.

-- Ray Allen has a 19.8 PER over a very long career and has several 22 PER seasons.

-- Kevin Durant is 22 PER for his career and has two 26 PER seasons.

Those are franchise wings.

Hell even Granger is better with a 17.4 career PER and a 21.8 PER seasons under his belt.

Gay's career PER numbers put him in company with Gerald Wallace, a good starting wing, but by no means a franchise player, and not worth the shot at drafting a potential franchise big.

I think trading our likely top three draft pick this year for Rudy Gay would be worse than trading five for Mike Miller and Randy Foye. At least those moves cleared pay roll and came in a a really poor draft class, not a stacked one. Trading for Gay would saddle us with an expensive player who's only marginally better than Nick Young in terms of cost effectiveness.

Anthony Davis is way overrated on this board. The guy has no NBA offensive game and it could take at least 3 years to develop that offensive game (if it ever develops at all) We need scoring, and we need it now!
You're severely underrating him. He has elite hands, great ball handling, good shooting form and excellent touch plus a huge motor. He has all of the makings of a quality scoring PF and probably has just about the same level of offensive polish Blake Griffin did as a freshman.

So what if it takes him three years to develop an offensive game? Then in three years we have a franchise caliber PF and we'll be in pretty good shape even if Wall inexplicably decided to walk just as things start to come together.

In the mean time we'd have a dominant shot blocking and defensive presence and excellent rebounder at PF.

If we need short term scoring, look to FA for catch and shoot floor spacers. Scoring is a hell of a lot easier to find than a potentially dominant all around PF, especially when you have an elite facilitating PG in development.

We're terrible right now. Our biggest concern needs to be adding dominant talent with a long term focus when it's available and the best way to do that if we're picking extremely high in this class is to hold on to our pick and use it.

And if we picked too late for Davis, then I'd rather take Drummond, and probably rather have Harrison Barnes or Quincy Miller than Rudy Gay outright. Drummond has impact potential too and both Barnes and Miller make more sense as a fit for us and each have higher upside than Gay IMO. I'd rather have Kidd-Gilchrist than Gay too. We'd have to be picking well outside the top five for me to be OK with trading for Gay.

---------- Post added January-23rd-2012 at 03:50 PM ----------

If we get the top pick I'd honestly consider trading down. I think Sullinger helps us more right away although Davis probably has more upside. We need smart players with high basketball IQ and that's exactly what Sully brings us. A PF like that also compliments McGee more and makes him a better C.

We need to be making the right moves for our franchise long term, not just focusing on the short term. I would not trade Davis for Sullinger and change. Davis has far more upside than Sullinger. He's a potential Blake Griffin or Kevin Garnett while Sullinger is a potential Al Jefferson--an excellent player but not the kind of difference maker you can build a championship around.

Davis has an extremely high BBall IQ. He'd compliment McGee defensively too and those two plus Vesely would form the most lethal defensive front court in the NBA. He'll get there on the offensive side of the ball and in the mean time, shoot for a high percentage. He shoots well, handles the ball well, and has a nascent post game, the seeds are there for him.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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Gay isn't a franchise player though, not really even close. He's a good scorer and fringe All Star depending on the years of the guys in front of him. Gay gets paid like a franchise player but isn't one. He's only broken the 20 PPG mark once in his career and his career high for PER is 17.8. His career average PER is 16.0 and he's in his sixth season. He is what he is by now.

A franchise player would average at least 20 PER for his career and have years where he goes north of 22, especially as a wing. By contrast:

-- Carmelo averages 20 PER for his career and has had several 22 PER seasons.

-- Dwayne Wade averages 25 PER for his career and has had a few 28+ PER seasons.

-- LeBron averages 27 for his career and went for a ridiculous 35 PER last season.

-- Kobe Bryant averages 23 for his career and has had several 26+ seasons.

-- Manu Ginobili is at 21.8 PER for his career and has a pair of 24 PER seasons.

-- Ray Allen has a 19.8 PER over a very long career and has several 22 PER seasons.

-- Kevin Durant is 22 PER for his career and has two 26 PER seasons.

Those are franchise wings.

Hell even Granger is better with a 17.4 career PER and a 21.8 PER seasons under his belt.

Gay's career PER numbers put him in company with Gerald Wallace, a good starting wing, but by no means a franchise player, and not worth the shot at drafting a potential franchise big.

I think trading our likely top three draft pick this year for Rudy Gay would be worse than trading five for Mike Miller and Randy Foye. At least those moves cleared pay roll and came in a a really poor draft class, not a stacked one. Trading for Gay would saddle us with an expensive player who's only marginally better than Nick Young in terms of cost effectiveness.

You're severely underrating him. He has elite hands, great ball handling, good shooting form and excellent touch plus a huge motor. He has all of the makings of a quality scoring PF and probably has just about the same level of offensive polish Blake Griffin did as a freshman.

So what if it takes him three years to develop an offensive game? Then in three years we have a franchise caliber PF and we'll be in pretty good shape even if Wall inexplicably decided to walk just as things start to come together.

In the mean time we'd have a dominant shot blocking and defensive presence and excellent rebounder at PF.

If we need short term scoring, look to FA for catch and shoot floor spacers. Scoring is a hell of a lot easier to find than a potentially dominant all around PF, especially when you have an elite facilitating PG in development.

We're terrible right now. Our biggest concern needs to be adding dominant talent with a long term focus when it's available and the best way to do that if we're picking extremely high in this class is to hold on to our pick and use it.

And if we picked too late for Davis, then I'd rather take Drummond, and probably rather have Harrison Barnes or Quincy Miller than Rudy Gay outright. Drummond has impact potential too and both Barnes and Miller make more sense as a fit for us and each have higher upside than Gay IMO. I'd rather have Kidd-Gilchrist than Gay too. We'd have to be picking well outside the top five for me to be OK with trading for Gay.

---------- Post added January-23rd-2012 at 03:50 PM ----------

We need to be making the right moves for our franchise long term, not just focusing on the short term. I would not trade Davis for Sullinger and change. Davis has far more upside than Sullinger. He's a potential Blake Griffin or Kevin Garnett while Sullinger is a potential Al Jefferson--an excellent player but not the kind of difference maker you can build a championship around.

Davis has an extremely high BBall IQ. He'd compliment McGee defensively too and those two plus Vesely would form the most lethal defensive front court in the NBA. He'll get there on the offensive side of the ball and in the mean time, shoot for a high percentage. He shoots well, handles the ball well, and has a nascent post game, the seeds are there for him.

this is why you and I will never agree on sports....you concentrate too much on box scores and statistics to where I actually watch lots of games. The only statistics I care about in basketball are wins and shooting percentage. Rudy Gay has been the best player on a playoff caliber team and scored 20ppg on a team where he must share shots with Zack Randolph. You say he has only reached 20ppg once (which is true) but lets be real 19.6 and 19.8 is the same thing as 20 when you are gauging what type of scorer a player is.

As far as using PER to gauge a players worth, you do realize that currently Jordan Farmar, Ryan Anderson, Lou Williams, CJ Watson, and Spenser Hawes are all in the top 20 PER in the league...they all have 22 PER or above and are ranked higher than guys like: Blake Griffin, Tony Parker, Both Gasol Brothers, D wade, Dirk...plenty more to list?

And if you are still going to continue using PER to guage a players worth, I'm surprised you don't like Milsap; he is currently a PER of 26.7, which 4th in the league.

My problem with PER is it doesn't account for defense (and no....steels and blocks don't make someone a good defender) Defense is half of the game and statistics only account for the offensive half. I'm not (in this case) arguing that Rudy Gay is an All-NBA defender (because he isn't) but I just don't like using PER to say whether or not someone is a franchise player.

John Wall has a pretty average PER and I think we all agree that he is a franchise PG.

To the next point: Carmelo Anthony: I don't care what Melo's stats or PER or whatever say.....I think he is the most overrated player to ever play in the NBA.....the guy is selfish and plays no defense. That's why Denver is now a better team without him and NY has gone down hill since they got him.

Anthony Davis: from what we've seen it is fair to say that he will be an elite shot blocker and a hell of an athlete at the next level. but nothing is certain and he may never develop an offensive game. To compare him offensively to Blake Griffin is just ridiculous....Blake Griffin was a dominate offensive player in college, he averaged over 20 ppg on 65% (dunking) ....Anthony Davis is averaging what? 13? That isn't very impressive to me. If you can't dominate in the college game, you are going to have a hard time scoring in the NBA. He could very well develop into a good player, but then again, he may not.

....Not to mention you are assuming we get one of the top 3 picks....as history has shown us, you can be one of the worst teams in the league and still not pick till 6.

Edited by Gator Bait
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I don't consider Sully to be a short term fix. He'll be a good if not great player in this league. He may not be a superstar but he's exactly the type of guy this team needs: a smart, skilled PF with high basketball IQ who compliments the guys we currently have and makes everyone better. A guy like Sully to dump it down to would make Wall better and his rebounding and toughness will make McGee better.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled with Davis and he's definitely the more talented player. I'm NOT saying we should take Sullinger over Davis. I'm saying we might be better off taking Sullinger and another lotto guy over just Davis.

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this is why you and I will never agree on sports....you concentrate too much on box scores and statistics to where I actually watch lots of games. The only statistics I care about in basketball are wins and shooting percentage. Rudy Gay has been the best player on a playoff caliber team and scored 20ppg on a team where he must share shots with Zack Randolph. You say he has only reached 20ppg once (which is true) but lets be real 19.6 and 19.8 is the same thing as 20 when you are gauging what type of scorer a player is.

As far as using PER to gauge a players worth, you do realize that currently Jordan Farmar, Ryan Anderson, Lou Williams, CJ Watson, and Spenser Hawes are all in the top 20 PER in the league...they all have 22 PER or above and are ranked higher than guys like: Blake Griffin, Tony Parker, Both Gasol Brothers, D wade, Dirk...plenty more to list?

And if you are still going to continue using PER to guage a players worth, I'm surprised you don't like Milsap; he is currently a PER of 26.7, which 4th in the league.

My problem with PER is it doesn't account for defense (and no....steels and blocks don't make someone a good defender) Defense is half of the game and statistics only account for the offensive half. I'm not (in this case) arguing that Rudy Gay is an All-NBA defender (because he isn't) but I just don't like using PER to say whether or not someone is a franchise player.

John Wall has a pretty average PER and I think we all agree that he is a franchise PG.

To the next point: Carmelo Anthony: I don't care what Melo's stats or PER or whatever say.....I think he is the most overrated player to ever play in the NBA.....the guy is selfish and plays no defense. That's why Denver is now a better team without him and NY has gone down hill since they got him.

Anthony Davis: from what we've seen it is fair to say that he will be an elite shot blocker and a hell of an athlete at the next level. but nothing is certain and he may never develop an offensive game. To compare him offensively to Blake Griffin is just ridiculous....Blake Griffin was a dominate offensive player in college, he averaged over 20 ppg on 65% (dunking) ....Anthony Davis is averaging what? 13? That isn't very impressive to me. If you can't dominate in the college game, you are going to have a hard time scoring in the NBA. He could very well develop into a good player, but then again, he may not.

....Not to mention you are assuming we get one of the top 3 picks....as history has shown us, you can be one of the worst teams in the league and still not pick till 6.

It sounds like your more concerned with more wins now instead of building a annual playoff contender built for the long haul. Wasting our top 3 pick and cap space on Gay is beyond terrible. No worries though because Ted would never do it and plans to build thru the draft.

Lets face it we will suck for a bit just like the Caps did and probably won't turn the corner until Flip is gone.

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Man this is pathetic 0 defense from this team and zero offense for that matter.i give up on Blatche he doesn't deserve any minutes hell give him the Dirk treatment he sits untill he gets in shape. Even then it's a collective pathetic proformance from the entire team.

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The long 2pt shot is the worst shot to take in basketball, and it is the staple of our offense.

:ols:

The Sixers own us. I have never seen such repeated, blatant domination over the course of a season and it doesn't matter who they put on the court. We can't touch their bench players and that's just silly.

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:ols:

The Sixers own us. I have never seen such repeated, blatant domination over the course of a season and it doesn't matter who they put on the court. We can't touch their bench players and that's just silly.

They play so much smarter and crisper than we do. It's amazing watching them vs. us. They actually look like a professional team out there. Our guys on the other hand look like a bunch of street ballers you'd see playing pickup at the Y.

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FWIW, it's the staple of Flips offense too. He relies heavily on his SG and PF to hit that shot.

And if the starting pf has the yips on this particular shot, we are screwed. Well, that among other things. I turned this game off to play some 2k12, and proceeded to watch Carmelo Anthony throw down 35 on me. Rough basketball day. haha.

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My Sixers are a good, young team, but they're still a ways away from making some serious noise. They still get bounced pretty easily by the big dogs.

Problem for you all, are two key pieces (Brand and Iggy) aren't exactly young Guns anymore. So once the others catch up, it might be too late to really put it all together.

---------- Post added January-24th-2012 at 12:52 AM ----------

Turner might end up being better than I expected after a very meh rookie year. Next year will tell everything.

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  • BRAVEONAWARPATH changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The JOHN WALL ERA
  • Destino changed the title to The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The BEAL & BRODIE ERA

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