Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins

Not suprised this wasn't posted..new poll shows Bustamante holds lead in Ca Gov. race


The Evil Genius

Recommended Posts

Personally, I hate polls. But since some here lend credence to them...this poll should shed some light onto the California Race, right now.

Bustamante holds narrow lead over Schwarzenegger: poll

Sun Aug 17, 6:33 PM ET Add U.S. National - AFP to My Yahoo!

LOS ANGELES (AFP) - Screen idol Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrat Cruz Bustamante were neck-and-neck in an early poll of likely voters in the California governor's race, a wake-up call for the Austrian-born actor making his foray into politics.

Just three percentage points separate Schwarzenegger, a Republican, and Bustamante, according to the survey released Saturday by the Field Poll organization.

Bustamante, California's lieutenant governor, has the support of 25 percent of likely voters, while Schwarzenegger has 22 percent, according to the survey which has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.

Field Poll officials said however, that California voters are still far from making up their minds about who -- if anyone -- should replace incumbent Governor Gray Davis.

"Voters have only generalized impressions of all of these people," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, who said candidates will have to work hard to hone their campaign messages in the short time left.

"They're really going to be hungry for information," DiCamillo said.

According to the poll, one-third of Republican support is going to state senator Tom McClintock, a staunch conservative, and to Bill Simon, who lost a tight election last year to Davis.

McClintock has nine percent of likely voters; Simon eight percent.

Another Republican, former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, received about five percent.

The recall vote was triggered last month after Republican foes of Davis gathered 1.3 million signatures calling for him to go.

Californians blame Davis for allowing the state's record 38-billion-dollar budget deficit to balloon during his five-year tenure.

Bustamante's campaign manager, Richie Ross, said he was "happy but humbled" by the polling results.

Schwarzenegger's campaign, meanwhile, dismissed the results.

"There will be dozens and dozens of polls coming out before election day," said Sean Walsh, an aide to Schwarzenegger.

"Both public and private polls show Arnold ahead of Cruz."

Bustamante's surprisingly strong showing reflects the reality that California remains a predominantly Democratic state.

In addition, several candidates are splitting the Republican vote while Democrats have just one major candidate.

In order to win, pundit say that Schwarzenegger, a moderate who is facing challenges from his party's right, must win over independents and lure Democrats across party lines.

He appeared to gain instant frontrunner status Schwarzenegger in the crowded field of 135 candidates -- including porn king Larry Flynt, an X-rated movie actress, a pink-haired billboard queen and a sumo wrestler -- vying for the state's top job.

The actor is hoping his star power, coupled with his fiscally conservative views and his socially moderate outlook on issues such as abortion and gay rights, will help him carry the election in traditionally liberal California.

But in order to win, it may be necessary for Schwarzenegger to elicit the support of the other Republicans currently in the race.

Simon told NBC news in an interview Sunday that he had no intention of dropping out of the race.

"I'm in this race," he said. "I'm not under any pressure to quit."

"What we need to do now is campaign hard for the next 52 days, give our citizens a message, a vision for the state of California. That's the most important thing," said Simon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is not a surprise given that the core Dem base will vote for Bustamante (read as "whoever the Dem candidate is") no matter what. That's what that 25% number represents.

The problem is where do they go from there? Many CA Dems, my wife included, thinks Bustamante = Davis II. Cruz won't get the vote of moderates who are dissatisfied with Davis, much less Republicans of course. So I don't see much room for improvement.

Schwartzenegger, if (and it's a big "if") he can be portrayed as a legit candidate who is worth voting for, can attract moderate Dem votes as well as Republican votes and could reach into the 30's and perhaps even into the 40 % range with votes. He's also going to attract protest voters. I don't see Bustamante matching that.

Right now, those who would vote for the recall and against Bustamante are spread across many different candidates. That will change over time as guys like McClintock and Ueberroth, who appeal to mainstream Republicans (like me) bow out or demonstrate that they have no legitimate chance.

In the abstract, I don't know that I want Schwartzenegger as my governor. But I dislike him less than Davis and the CA Democratic establishment, and there are many who agree with that sentiment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bustamante is most definitely not Davis II - I thinks thats a given.

They hate each other too much.

BTW - has anyone ever gotten so much blame for things that did not deserve blame? Davis has his faults, thats a no brainer. But the blame that is attached to him is ridiculous.

I dare anyone to accurately place blame on Davis. The only thing that I think fits is the notion that he cares more about politicking (stokcpiling $'s for campaigns) than he does about actually governing.

The energy chaos of last year has been shown not to be at his feet as much as the media lets on.

The other biggie, the 30-38 billion dollar budget deficit can be partially attributed to his reign. But anyone who governed through the stock market IT crash would have had the same results. Add to that, all the various props which mandate certain levels of spending, and you have a recipe for deficit.

But hey, what do I know. I am shocked it has gotten this far. But we are in California, and the masses seem to do whats trendy. Even though 96% of the state voting population didn't support the recall by signing it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know much about any of it, but who people SAY they will vote for now, and who they will actually vote for when the moment of truth comes are quite likely two different things. Name recognition is huge, and you can't get much better than Ahnaald in that department. He's really no Republican to begin with, and I suspect that by the time Rob Lowe, wife Maria, and their friends get done, he'll be getting a lot more Democratic votes than anyone would've predicted (the old 'I know he's a Republican, but look at his stand on the issues you care about' routine). I don't think he can be smeared either. I mean, he's Arnold Schwarzenegger for God's sake. People expect him to have been a womanizing party animal in his former life. It can't hurt him which makes him a tough opponent. As the frontrunners become clearer closer to election day (if we can call it that?), most aren't going to vote for people like Arianna Huffington...they'll choose between Bustamente and Arnold. I'd be very surprised if Arnold doesn't win by at least 10 percentage points.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by The Evil Genius

Bustamante is most definitely not Davis II - I thinks thats a given.

They hate each other too much.

That may be true, but I'm addressing the perception that most people have. Bustamante is the Lt. Gov. under Davis who has made a vote for him a fall back in the event that people vote in favor of a recall, something that he's encouraging them not to do. He's toeing the party line. That's not exactly a good way to differentiate yourself from the guy currently in the governor's mansion.

The one thing he has going for him that Arnold does not is that he's Latino. But given that the Latino population is becoming more and more conservative over time, that may not help enough.

As for Davis, voters' sentiment boil down to the fact that he lied to them over the condition of the state budget during the campaign. Telling the truth still counts for something.

But he's also screwed a bunch of things up. On Indian gaming for example - a project which he personally negotiated - tell me what safeguards he put in place against corruption.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can only speak for myself AJ, but personally I'd have no problem whatsoever with Alec Baldwin, Barbara Streisand, or Susan Sarandon RUNNING for office. When you actually run for office, you have to state your positions, defend them, put your own credibility up for examination.....its a lot different than simply tossing grenades from your celebrity balcony. Celebrities have an inordinate amount of time to espouse their 'well thought out' political viewpoints, and the venues to do it continuously if they so desire. What they lack is any impetus to defend their stands against counter-arguments, or to actually try to implement what they so vehemently and (in my opinion) arrogantly espouse. I'm not sure its ever a great thing when a celebrity decides to throw their hat into the ring, but at least they are participating in the process, not just critiqueing it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

a very good post tarhog. i for one can't stand seeing actors run for office. these people memorize lines for a living, and act (i.e. deceive)... it is the skill they have honed. it makes me wonder how much ahnuld really knows about what is going on, and how much he has been fed.

i think the debates will prove to be very interesting. they are going to have debates, right? i am wondering how/when he will use the "i'll be back" phrase... can you picture it?

and if he would promise to never make a movie as stupid as "jingle all the way" he would win in a landslide. that should be his campaign strategy: only Commando style, Predator, or Terminator films... no buddy comedies with midgets, or crap like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think there is another poll that shows Ahnold with a double digit lead. But as you said, polls are what they are. My bet is that Simon will drop out in the next few weeks and throw his support to Arnold.

About blaming people for things, what about Hitlary blaming Bush for the blackout a few hours after the lights went out?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by redman

That may be true, but I'm addressing the perception that most people have. Bustamante is the Lt. Gov. under Davis who has made a vote for him a fall back in the event that people vote in favor of a recall, something that he's encouraging them not to do. He's toeing the party line. That's not exactly a good way to differentiate yourself from the guy currently in the governor's mansion.

The one thing he has going for him that Arnold does not is that he's Latino. But given that the Latino population is becoming more and more conservative over time, that may not help enough.

As for Davis, voters' sentiment boil down to the fact that he lied to them over the condition of the state budget during the campaign. Telling the truth still counts for something.

But he's also screwed a bunch of things up. On Indian gaming for example - a project which he personally negotiated - tell me what safeguards he put in place against corruption.

Couple of points. Who do you think the general public will relate to more? A movie star with a 35 million dollar a year job or a lifetime public servant who makes roughly 100k a year. Both are rich by my standards...but I think when push comes to shove, Bustamante will win out on that one. Sure the protest vote will go to Arnie, unless he exposes himself in the debates, but I think the DEM vote will swing Bustamante's way in the end.

Not sure what lie you are talkign about when you say Davis lied about the budget deficit. No one payed any attention to it (the deficit) during the election, and when Davis came out and said that there would be a 30-35 billion dollar deficit, it was the GOP who repeatedly said he was exaggerating the amount (as I recollect). Guess he was closer than what the GOP thought, huh?Can you point to where Davis intentionally said the deficit wasn't as big?

And you know what...it's funny how we never hear about why energy prices went up in the state (and I am not just talking about the last 2 years, I am talking about most of the 1990's here). Think deregulation had anything to do with it? And who ushered in deregulation of the energy companies? Hint...Pete Wilson.

As for Indian casinos, I am not sure what your rant is on those. There are numerous state agencies that regulate the Indian casinos. These casinos are even more regulated than the ones in Las Vegas!

What corruption, exactly, are you talking about?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not true TEG, Simon said over and over that Davis was lying about the budget defecit. It was a big deal that Davis tried to sweep under the rug during the campaign. Then low and behold, a week after the election (maybe 2) he comes out and admits the defecit was out of control.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sources?

Here is the problem that I have...I have yet to read one single quote from Davis where he said that the deficit was only 12 billion back in October 2002. But, you repeatedly hear the recall effort backed by the notion that he lied about the size of the deficit.

Davis has gone on record as to saying that the original estimate of the size of the deficit, from the State Dept. of Finance, was based on Greenspan's economic projections for Jan-June 2003. Since these projections never came into fruition, I suppose its possible that the DOF's estimates were off.

Does this mean that Davis lied about the size of the deficit? I don't know. Was he stating what the state DOF had told him? Probably. Was the state DOF incorrect, in hindsight, yes - definitely they were way off.

But...getting back to the point. I think its really hard to accuse someone of lieing....if you don't show where the lie occurred. Where is the smoking gun here? Or is this one of those occurences of where if you say the same thing over and over, it becomes a truth...even if its not grounded in truth?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Kilmer17

http://www.newsmax.com/showinsidecover.shtml?a=2003/8/10/162910

Just a sample. Ive got more. Prior to the election, Davis said the defecit would be 8 billion. Simon called him out and said it would be over 20 million.

Kilmer,

Again, that is someone saying that Davis said something. This time, its Simon stating it.

I have not seen a direct quote of Davis stating the deficit was 8, or 12 billion, or whatever number.

Thats all I am asking for.

As an aside, Simon's pointing of fingers at Davis was seriously crippled when Simon lied about having proof of illegal campaign contributions. I wouldn't use Simon's word to back up this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will stand to be corrected.

Do you think that a Gov. is crippled by what his departments give him? If the DOF was tellign him the deficit was x number...and then 6 months later it turns out to be x+y number.

Did the governor lie?

Not saying thats what happened. But it's a necessary question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...